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00:00This week, the strongest signs yet that Donald Trump has run out of patience with Vladimir Putin.
00:06First, the promise to sell more weapons to Ukraine via NATO allies.
00:11And then a new 50-day deadline for peace.
00:14And it was reinforced by a threat, a threat of secondary tariffs
00:18that target countries that deal in Russian oil and gas.
00:22And finally, we had reports on multiple media outlets of a private phone call
00:27between Donald Trump and President Zelensky,
00:30in which he asked if he had the capacity to strike Moscow.
00:34So will all of this force Russia to the negotiating table?
00:37Or is the Kremlin safe in the knowledge that it has weeks more to wage its war
00:42without meaningful consequences?
00:45We'll be answering all of your questions this week with our expert panel.
00:50I'm Vitaly Shevchenko.
00:52I'm Olga Robinson.
00:54I'm James Waterhouse.
00:55And I'm Lucy Hawkins.
00:57This is UkraineCast.
01:00UkraineCast from BBC News.
01:09Well, let's start with that 50-day deadline.
01:12A lot of you have got questions about it
01:14because it's something that can be viewed in lots of different ways.
01:18What are you hearing from Ukraine, James?
01:19Well, at the moment, the delivery of Patriot missile systems is being welcomed.
01:26You know, what we're hearing is a relief, certainly from colleagues in Kyiv,
01:32that Donald Trump has finally announced concrete measures in support of Ukraine.
01:38But where we are now moving to is a sort of chasm in terms of detail.
01:43How many are going to be delivered and how?
01:47We saw a top NATO commander this morning announce in Germany that Germany would be funding two of these things via America.
01:55But they couldn't say where or when these would be delivered.
01:59The German government was unable to provide that detail.
02:03I think if you're Ukraine, you've seen deadline after deadline set by the White House and missed.
02:08But we shouldn't brush over what is a notable sea change from across the Atlantic.
02:14Because Vitaly, I had a sense interviewing people earlier in the week that there was a bit of frustration about this deadline.
02:19You know, great. Another 50 days for Russia to continue with its summer offensive.
02:24I'll give you one quote that I saw on Facebook from a Ukrainian commentator.
02:31And he said, the big American nothing is still that.
02:36Basically, so much ado about nothing.
02:39So much huffing and puffing.
02:41And still no fresh weapons deliverance to Ukraine.
02:45That's how it's seen in Ukraine, in Russia.
02:48I'll give you another quote.
02:50There was a Russian senator.
02:53And he used this phrase.
02:55I've not heard it in Russian before.
02:57He said, all the steam has gone into the whistle.
03:00I imagine implying like a steam engine.
03:02But instead of turning the wheels, it's gone into the loud noises.
03:07And as we've discussed before, the Russian stock market rebounded after these deadlines and threats.
03:15Because so far, Donald Trump's and his administration's actions, they have benefited Russia.
03:23The delays in weapons, supplies, the lack of action as well.
03:29No fresh sanctions on Russia.
03:31That's benefiting Russia as well.
03:33So Donald Trump has bought himself some time and Vladimir Putin as well.
03:38And on that, Olga, no extra concern then being expressed by the Kremlin over this deadline.
03:44Not really.
03:45Not that we've seen.
03:47But I think the time question is very important.
03:51How long is it going to take to get all these weapons?
03:54And it usually does take quite a bit of time.
03:56And Moscow at the moment is just playing the waiting game.
03:58And the longer they think, the longer they can get, the more progress they can actually make on the front line.
04:06When it comes to the time, Donald Trump was asked, OK, so are they being delivered?
04:11And he said, yeah, they're being delivered Patriot missiles from Germany.
04:14To which the German government spokesman said, I'm not aware of that.
04:18We've had lots of questions about the weapons, as you can imagine, with these lines coming from Donald Trump about Washington's intention to send more to Ukraine, but via NATO allies.
04:30And this is a great question from Judy in Maidstone, who says,
04:33It's reported that France has said it will opt out of the NATO purchase of U.S. arms for Ukraine.
04:38Is there a risk of other countries following suit and Ukraine not getting the weapons they need?
04:46James, what's the position of France here?
04:47Well, I mean, Emmanuel Macron, like Germany, is grappling with a spending deficit in his government.
04:54He's grappling with an ageing population and struggling to get a budget signed off.
04:58So if you're dealing with those domestic issues, it is clearly why he is reluctant to commit to paying out billions of dollars for these American systems.
05:10So the NATO unit as a whole is just trying to get enough members on the same hymn sheet to be able to stump up the cash and meet the immediacy of Russia's continued invasion of Ukraine.
05:24Italy is set to follow suit.
05:25We understand that Netherlands, the UK, some Nordic countries are willing and able.
05:32But it just shows the difficulty in coordinating Ukraine's most immediate allies when it comes to vital weapons supplies.
05:41I'm sure many of you that are watching and listening will have seen those pictures of President Trump in the Oval Office again, having a good conversation with the NATO Secretary General, Mark Rutter.
05:50We have a question from a listener on that very subject.
05:55Janet in the south of France wants to know a bit more about the former Dutch Prime Minister.
06:00And she says,
06:01James, we've listened to a lot of press conferences with Stoltenberg and Rutter in our time.
06:21Do you think that Janet should be worried about Mark Rutter?
06:24I don't think so.
06:25I think they are two different beasts, aren't they?
06:28And I watched Jens Stoltenberg arrive in Kiev on countless occasions, certainly since the full-scale invasion, where he would say the same thing, like a lot of European allies.
06:38They would say Ukraine's membership to NATO is irreversible.
06:42It's inevitable.
06:43He would talk about the need for Ukraine to be supported in order for Europe to be safe.
06:49NATO, whilst not letting Ukraine in the gang, is still clearly driven to help in any other way it can.
06:57I mean, Ukraine knows what it would like.
06:59But then, I mean, you've seen him in the flesh, Mark Rutter.
07:03He's got a bit of a quite, I suggest...
07:05Bit of zip.
07:06Bit of zip.
07:06A bit of a bit more of an obvious tactic that is different to Jens Stoltenberg, but nevertheless with the same message.
07:13I mean, Stoltenberg is a very nice, very measured, very polite man when I have interviewed him before.
07:20He's lovely to the people around him.
07:22He is very respectful.
07:23And there is a huge amount of respect for him.
07:26Mark Rutter, it feels quite different when you're around him.
07:28He has a different kind of charisma, a different kind of energy.
07:31And, I mean, he had all this criticism about how he treats President Trump, but it's worked.
07:37I mean, speaking to Gary O'Donoghue the other day, President Trump reaffirmed his commitment to NATO and to collective defence.
07:43So all of that kind of flattery that we've seen from Mark Rutter has worked.
07:48And when he speaks, when I was at the NATO summit in The Hague, people stop, people listen, the TV networks take him because he does have that kind of energy and charisma.
08:00Yeah.
08:00There are two approaches to Trump out there.
08:03One is playing up to his ego with flattery.
08:07The other one is pulling your resources together and telling him, well, look, what you're proposing is just not working.
08:15I mean, can I, are we missing a broader change here?
08:19You remember as little as a few months ago, we were talking about Europe, right, having to work out how to go on its own in terms of weapons supply and whether it would be in time for Ukraine.
08:29Are we now, with the tactics of Mr. Rutter, seeing a reversion to what was before, where actually, if you're given what Mr. Trump said recently to the BBC, is are we now actually just getting America back on side?
08:43And will Europe as a bloc be as reliant on America as it was in the past?
08:48And will Ukraine be able to directly benefit?
08:51That is what so many people are hoping.
08:52And it's the frustration as well that President Trump is expressing towards Vladimir Putin that everyone is sort of honing in on.
08:58There's certainly been a change in rhetoric.
09:00The only change of stance that I can detect at this stage is that Donald Trump is no longer opposed to weapons being delivered to Ukraine.
09:12However, he's sort of shifted the responsibility for keeping Ukraine supplied with weapons to others.
09:19I think he's allowed others to buy weapons and then maybe pass some of those weapons on to Ukraine, which is different from what Biden did.
09:30We are going to give those weapons to Ukraine for free.
09:34And Donald Trump is proud of not paying a cent for those weapons going to Ukraine now.
09:40But also you can never rule out the possibility of there being another shift later on.
09:45With Donald Trump, you definitely can't.
09:46Let's pivot away from diplomacy now.
09:48We've got lots of questions to get through and talk about the situation on the ground.
09:53Because here's a really good question from Sasha.
09:56Hi, Ukrainecast.
09:57It's Sasha in Newbury.
09:59We hear when a drone and or missile attack happens on Ukrainian cities.
10:03But there hasn't been much news recently on the situation at the front lines.
10:07Is Russia still making small gains?
10:10Has there been any reclamation of territory by the Ukrainians?
10:14And what about Ukrainian incursions into Kursk and other Russian regions?
10:19Thanks.
10:20Can you just bring us up to date, Olga?
10:21What's happening on the front line?
10:22So we arguably are not talking a lot about the situation of front line day to day.
10:29Because if you look at the control maps, they just don't change that much day to day.
10:34But if you look at the wider situation over the past few months, then you can see changes.
10:40And arguably, they're not really that much in Ukraine's favor.
10:44Because with the Kursk incursion, they're pretty much out of Kursk.
10:49And in fact, the Russians are in Sumy at the moment, which is the region in the north border, Kursk region.
10:58And it's not a huge swathe of territory that they've taken there, but they are there.
11:06And Ukrainians have been trying to push back in their area.
11:10Then if you look at the east, the situation in the east where a lot of the fighting has been going on,
11:17the Russians are still trying to take Pakrovsk.
11:19And, you know, I've been talking about Pakrovsk for like well over a year now.
11:22But, again, there, if you look at the wider trend, they have been taking territory.
11:28It's like very grinding, slow progress.
11:32But as some of â if you follow Ukrainian soldiers like on social media,
11:37they very often say, but they are determined.
11:39They have the men and they just keep pressing, keep pressing, keep pressing.
11:43And actually, yesterday, I was reading some comments from Ukrainian war bloggers
11:50that are in touch and are aware of the situation on the front line.
11:54And we're saying that the situation in Pakrovsk is actually getting critical in their view
11:57and it's getting really, really bad for Ukraine.
12:01And, you know, but technically the front line is holding overall.
12:05But there are some things that are happening like very gradually that are technically not in Ukraine's favour.
12:12Well, Sasha is right in that Russia's slow progress continues.
12:18It's slow, but it continues.
12:20But there may come a breaking point when Ukrainian defences will crumble.
12:25And if you look at control of terrain maps, they are beginning to show pincers around Pakrovsk
12:34and around the neighbouring town of Konstantinyevka.
12:38So if Russians slowly encircle and engulf those two towns,
12:45that's going to be pretty bad in very practical terms for Ukraine
12:50and also in terms of morale as well.
12:53And what do you hear, particularly on that, James, about morale amongst the soldiers on the front line?
12:57I mean, we talk to guys that come back to Kiev for respite
13:01and the things they have seen and experienced and forced to do,
13:07retrieve the bodies of dead friends,
13:10and then next thing they're back in Kiev with their other male friends
13:15who haven't been called up.
13:16They might be exempt or they might be waiting for the call.
13:19There's something Olga said there.
13:20The Russians are motivated.
13:22We heard something from a soldier, it's not a popular thing to say,
13:26where they said, look, the Russians took a particular square of territory.
13:29They said, they earned that.
13:31They have thrown everything at that.
13:33We've defended with our lives.
13:35They have just kept coming in a kind of throwaway comment.
13:39And I think we must remind ourselves when we're talking about,
13:42yes, Trump perhaps having a little shift in stance.
13:46This is not weaponry that will allow Ukraine to counterattack,
13:52to liberate territory like we saw more than three years ago now.
13:55It is merely allowing it to hang on, to protect its people,
13:59until Russia is pressured to pause in any way.
14:03But there is footage around Pokrovsk where you have a Russian armoured vehicle weaving through a road towards the front line,
14:09and it's like a vehicle graveyard.
14:11It just shows, you know, vehicle after vehicle that's routinely hit,
14:15but eventually, what soldiers will tell you, some get through.
14:18And then they're able to re-establish, and the front line collapses some more.
14:22And then you look at Bakhmut, which was captured by the Russians in 2023.
14:26A Russian was driving around filming there.
14:30It's a ghost town, and it is something that Moscow still tries to call liberation.
14:35Do we ever see, or do you both ever see, reports from Russian troops on the front line about what morale is like?
14:42Is it possible to sort of access any of that experience?
14:46Not so much about morale, I think.
14:49There are some fairly popular bloggers who are soldiers on the front line,
14:54and they can sometimes, like, disagree with the wider point of view about what Russians are doing, Ukrainians are doing.
15:03And occasionally, they even say, oh, Ukrainians are actually, like, the drone operators are actually very good.
15:07They would acknowledge things like that.
15:09They don't tend to talk about morale.
15:11It's more about, like, operations and just, we are keeping at it.
15:17We are now focusing on, because a lot of it is about, like, drone warfare at the moment,
15:21and there's just, we are focusing on taking out drone positions, taking out people.
15:26And, you know, they use also extremely derogatory language whenever it comes to Ukrainians.
15:32It's like, yeah, I can't even, like, repeat stuff, they say.
15:35Well, there is still a huge amount of interest when it comes to those North Korean soldiers
15:38who have been fighting alongside the Russian military,
15:41and that's inspired this next question.
15:44Hi, UkraineCast. It's Scott from Ohio.
15:46I was wondering, now that North Korea and Russia are working together openly,
15:50what would happen if Ukraine decided to hit one of the North Korean assets,
15:53let's say a troop-carrying ship or perhaps droning a factory on their territory?
15:59I appreciate it. Thanks.
15:59I struggle to see how Ukraine would launch, like, a long-range drone strike into North Korea,
16:07because, like, the longest drone strikes we've actually seen from Ukraine
16:11would be somewhere in the area of Ural, so it's, like, not even halfway through to North Korea.
16:17So from that perspective, I think in order to strike something inside North Korea for Ukraine,
16:24there will have to be, like, some sort of operation like Spiderweb of smuggling something into another country
16:30and then trying to hit assets there.
16:34But it's like, the question is, is it really worth it, that kind of logistics,
16:38the kind of logistics of the whole thing?
16:40Because, like, Spiderweb took years to put together.
16:44Is it really worth it?
16:46Are North Koreans actually contributing in terms of, like, ammunition or weapons
16:52as much as, like, the Russian plants and, you know, Russian production?
16:59It kind of, I think, for Ukraine, arguably, makes more sense to target militarily,
17:04to target industrial places in Russia that produce weapons rather than target North Koreans,
17:14who are largely supplying people.
17:19We have a question now, which we received following our episode on Tuesday.
17:22in which we discussed an apparent increase in Ukrainian asylum applications
17:27that are being rejected by the UK.
17:30And don't forget, if you missed it, you can find that anytime by searching for Ukrainecast,
17:33wherever you get your podcasts.
17:35But let's have a listen to this question.
17:36It's from Mandy in the West Midlands, who asks,
17:40I've hosted several families, and I'm about to host a family
17:43who were internally displaced in Ukraine since the start of the war,
17:46but found it hard to settle in a new city.
17:48My question is, are internally displaced people really able to settle in new areas,
17:53as it seems the Home Office thinks they can?
17:56And if the UK and other countries send back Ukrainians to safer places,
18:00surely it will cause problems for these cities.
18:03Thanks.
18:04I think we should remind people that this is based on current Home Office guidance,
18:08which deems some of Ukraine's Western oblasts safe for return or internal relocation.
18:14I mean, Olga, this does depend on how we define safe.
18:18But what's it like in those Western oblasts?
18:20Yeah, I think it does really depend on what we describe as safe.
18:23Because if you look statistically at the number of Russian attacks on Western regions in Ukraine,
18:30and I'm basing off data provided by Aklid,
18:33which is a non-profit that tracks violent conflicts,
18:36if you look in the past six months,
18:39then there have been like eight or five attacks in places like Lviv or Ternopoul.
18:48So if you compare that to Kiev, which is over 100,
18:53and obviously it's way larger number for Kharkiv and other places that Russia has been targeting more consistently.
19:01So on paper, it feels like it's safer in the West.
19:06But then, you know, you still live there with air raid sirens that pretty much on a regular basis are launched across the country.
19:18So it's, you know, it's the mental health also toll that it takes.
19:25It's not just, you know, it's not just an attack and damage.
19:29Yeah, I mean, when you were in Kiev, James, talking to people,
19:32did you look at these Western oblasts and think, oh, yeah, they're safe?
19:36There's no doubt there are distinctions that can be made because of the vastness of Ukraine.
19:43But I think first and foremost, we are talking about people's homes
19:47and the weight of this war that Olga mentions that is felt by absolutely everyone.
19:51And the UK government clearly is trying to act on those distinctions to try and control its own immigration levels.
20:00But the number of times we as a team have stood somewhere and thought, you know,
20:04whether it's in the East and said, how are people hanging on for this long?
20:08And so it's their home.
20:09You know, it is quite a thing to be forced from your home.
20:11It's quite another to be forced to go back to your country that isn't your home.
20:15You know, so that is an argument saying you could resettle here.
20:19You could be 400 kilometres.
20:21And we have to remember that while people are free to move from one Ukrainian city to another Ukrainian city,
20:31which may be statistically speaking safer, right, they will only do that.
20:38They will be doing that without any government support.
20:40Yeah.
20:41And what about Mandy's question, Vitaly?
20:42What kind of pressure does it put on those cities if you've got people moving in their families and relatives and things as well?
20:48I'll put it this way.
20:48Upward pressure on housing prices, you know.
20:53House prices in places like Lviv, they shot up enormously.
20:57So if you're prepared to up your sticks and move from Zaporizhia to Lviv, be prepared to pay a lot of money.
21:05You'll have to find a new job.
21:06You'll have to start a new life.
21:07And contrast that with the possibility of moving abroad where you would be provided with some sort of benefits and government assistance.
21:19And I'm not just talking about Britain here.
21:21Other countries are available.
21:24So that's why more than five million Ukrainians have chosen to move abroad rather than to places like Lviv,
21:30which are not as safe as Newbury or Manchester.
21:34Last week we talked a little bit about internal politics inside Ukraine, and now we've had a reshuffle, James.
21:40Is this the first four-time reshuffle of any major significance that we've seen?
21:44We've seen movers and shakers before, but I think, you know, Rustom Umerov, he hasn't been in post for long,
21:51going from defence minister to the National Defence Council.
21:56But I think seeing a prominent woman, Sidor Ledenko, when you say prominent, I think...
22:06You can't disagree.
22:07Well, she has relatively little experience, I would put it this way.
22:11She's on the cabinet.
22:12Yes.
22:12And the previous Ukrainian president, Petro Poroshenko, called her Andriy Yermak in a skirt,
22:21which refers to this view that she's only doing the bidding for Andriy Yermak, the head of Ulder Meryzelensky's office.
22:30So this is the first wartime reshuffle of this magnitude.
22:33Just can we be clear, Vitaly, who's new in post then?
22:37What are the significant changes?
22:38The previous prime minister, Denis Shmihal, he is being nominated for defence minister.
22:46So that's the key changes.
22:49But when it comes to Yulia Sverdenko, she has lots of experience in dealing with Ukraine's foreign partners.
22:57She was the one who worked really hard to prepare that minerals deal with America.
23:02So people in the States will know her.
23:04Maybe that will help.
23:05She was at some point Andriy Yermak's deputy as well.
23:12So some people, a lot of people, in fact, are saying that this will only make it easier for the president's office to keep the government under control.
23:21It is a concentration of power.
23:22I think you're right.
23:23I think we're moving furniture.
23:24But as this war drags on, Zelensky and Andriy Yermak, his all-powerful chief of staff, are consolidating their authority.
23:32And briefly then, Olga, how is the Kremlin going to be viewing all of this?
23:36Well, they will be loving it because any consolidation of power, any like Zelensky looking at more authoritarian or any infighting in Ukraine, it's a gift for the Kremlin because they always, and the Russian state media always pick on it and present like, you know, Ukraine is in chaos.
23:52Ukraine is no democratic state.
23:54Another great discussion.
23:57Thank you all.
23:57And thank you all for your questions.
23:59We'll be back with a new Q&A episode next week.
24:02Thanks so much for watching.
24:04Goodbye.
24:06Ukrainecast from BBC News.
24:24Ukrainecast from BBC News.
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