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00:00You know, Warren Buffett said, Bitcoin's a rat poison. And you know what? He's right. And guess
00:04what? Warren is the rat! Now, if somebody calls that a store of value, I mean, I think they're
00:08delusionary. I think it went up another $7,000 in the last couple of hours.
00:13Well, I think it's going a lot higher. We're getting ready for another big dump.
00:17It's all about pump and then dump. What's up, you guys? It's Graham here.
00:21So apparently, Bitcoin is breaking the U.S. dollar. Normally, I tend to hold back on my
00:25personal opinion for the sake of relaying the data. But I have to admit, it is looking more and
00:31more likely that Bitcoin has the potential to one day become the global reserve currency,
00:35overtaking everything in its path. After all, Bitcoin has become the best performing asset of 2024
00:40and of the last decade, averaging an annualized return of 102%. If you just bought Bitcoin a year
00:46ago, you would have already doubled your money. And with public companies now quietly adding more
00:51Bitcoin than ever to their balance sheets. All of this means that the biggest gains and the biggest
00:56risks are right ahead of us, if you know where to look. That's why it's more important than ever
01:01that we discuss the bull and the bear cases for today's value, the dangers that everyone needs
01:06to take into consideration, and then finally, what the experts are saying it could be worth in the very
01:12near future. Because if this comes true, it's absolutely mind-blowing. Although really quick,
01:16if you appreciate the last-minute breaking news videos like this, it would mean the world to me.
01:21If you hit the like button or subscribe if you haven't done that already, I know it's silly to
01:25ask for it, but it helps out the channel tremendously. And as a thank you for doing that,
01:29here's a picture of a baby hedgehog. So thanks so much. And also a big thank you to Gemini for
01:33sponsoring this video, but more on that later. All right, so in terms of Bitcoin's price,
01:37let's just get this out of the way. We have money problems. Like sure, we've seen a 10% annualized
01:42return of the S&P 500 since the 1920s, but we've also printed an average of 10% more money each and every
01:48year during that exact same timeframe. So this is what many people believe Bitcoin eventually solves.
01:53In fact, Bitcoin has become one of the asset classes to have outperformed the money supply
01:57by a wide margin, with even more upside expected. How? Well, after making its debut in 2009 after the
02:04great financial crisis, Bitcoin slowly adopted mainstream and corporate popularity, rising more
02:10than 25,000% since 2015. To put into perspective just how significant that is, this return is 100
02:17times higher than that of the S&P 500. Basically, the premise is that there's only ever going to be
02:2221 million Bitcoins in existence, and that's it. Of which, there's roughly about 1.1 million Bitcoin
02:28left to be mined, which means 95% of its supply has already been accounted for. And as demand picks up,
02:34the price skyrockets. Although even though Bitcoin has gone up over 20 million percent since its
02:40inception, it's also not uncommon for it to drop 50 to 90% before consolidating and moving back even
02:47higher. So what does this mean for the average person, and how could you use this information
02:51to make money? Well, in order to talk about how high or how low the price could go, we first need to
02:56talk about supply and demand. Look, here's the part that I found most surprising. As of right now,
03:0162% of adults say that they own stocks, 65% say that they own a home, but just 14% say that they
03:08own Bitcoin. So who's the biggest buyer? Well, lately it's a mix of institutions and ETFs that are
03:14buying up as much as they possibly can. For example, MicroStrategy currently owns 3% of all circulating
03:20supply. Tesla added it to their reserve in 2021. BlackRock's ETF is one of the fastest growing funds
03:26of all time. Pension funds are beginning to buy in, and even the United States has a stockpile
03:31worth tens of billions of dollars. On top of that, several other countries currently hold
03:35a significant amount of Bitcoin on their balance sheet. And with ongoing talks about a Bitcoin
03:40reserve, entire nations are now considering adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets as a
03:44way to boost their economy and even back their own currency. As proof of this, 263 entities
03:50currently have Bitcoin on their balance sheets as a replacement for holding onto the US dollar,
03:54and nine countries actively hold it, including China, who quickly seems to be catching up to
03:59the United States. All of this is becoming so significant that 65% of investors say that they
04:04plan to buy or invest in digital assets in the future. Again, a huge increase from the 16% that
04:10currently owns it. Like this has become so impossible to ignore that even half of all financial advisors
04:15plan to recommend cryptocurrency investments to their clients within the next 12 months.
04:20Essentially, as of today, retail investors are bringing in liquidity and excitement into the bull
04:25run and institutional investors are providing a lot of capital to keep it relatively stable.
04:30Like just compare it to other asset classes over the last 10 years. Since 2015, inflation has averaged
04:362.65%. The dollar has lost 26% of its value. Home prices are up roughly 100%. Gold has risen 181%.
04:46The S&P 500 has risen 200%. And Bitcoin is up 35,000% during that same timeframe. Like even if we look back over the
04:55last five years, it's currently up over 1100%, outperforming every other asset class in the entire
05:02world. So much so that if you just invested $1,000 10 years ago, you would have almost $400,000 today.
05:10Or I guess like this person says on Twitter, I bought my home in April 2023. The price was $500,000,
05:16which was 22 and a half Bitcoin. Today, the value is $575,000, which is 5.3 Bitcoin. In a little less than
05:24two years, my home value increased 15% in dollars, but it lost 76% of its value in Bitcoin. Real estate
05:32is collapsing in front of us. This is why several financial advisors have started recommending
05:36their clients allocate about 2% of their portfolio to cryptocurrency, with nearly 1 in 10 saying that
05:42the perfect allocation is actually between 10 and 14%. However, even though some analysts eventually
05:47expect the price to reach a million, $5 million, or even $10 million in the future, there are some
05:53massive risks that you need to be made aware of. Because if you don't follow a few of these crucial
05:58steps, you could risk or lose quite a lot of money. Although in terms of adding Bitcoin to your
06:03portfolio, here's what I think is the most surprising. Fidelity recently found that a small
06:07allocation to Bitcoin actually helps boost the overall return in a traditional portfolio without
06:12increasing risk. And even BlackRock agreed that a small allocation could be suitable for most investors
06:18as a replacement for bonds. This is why I've taken the approach of diversifying my portfolio as
06:23much as possible. And using our sponsor, the Gemini credit card, could help you do exactly that.
06:28For those unaware, they're the only instant crypto reward credit card that gives you Bitcoin back
06:33every time you purchase. For example, you could get up to 4% back on transportation,
06:373% back on dining, 2% on groceries, and 1% back on everything else, which is fantastic for a card with
06:43no annual fees. Honestly, it's just a fun way to earn rewards in a way that's not constantly going
06:49unused or getting devalued. And in this case, Bitcoin rewards earned and held for one year on
06:54the Gemini credit card have actually appreciated 176% on average. This makes it easy to gain a
07:00little exposure to Bitcoin without actually having to go and buy it to try to time the market.
07:04All you have to do is swipe your card normally, and that's it. Plus, like I mentioned earlier,
07:08this World Elite MasterCard has no annual fees, and it comes in four sleek stainless steel colors.
07:14Black, Silver, Rose Gold, or Bitcoin Orange. You can also check out the description for more
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07:23So if you'd like to earn Bitcoin or select for more than 50 other cryptocurrencies that you could
07:27switch to at any time, sign up today at Gemini.com slash Graham to start earning instantly. Plus,
07:33as a special bonus, you could get $200 of Bitcoin when you spend $3,000 in the first 90 days. Again,
07:39that link is Gemini.com slash Graham, or you could use the link down below in the description to get
07:44started. Thanks so much, and now let's get back to the video.
07:46All right. Now, before we dive into the math between how Bitcoin could one day be worth $10
07:50million, we need to talk about the risks. To break this down, let's start with one of the most
07:55respected investors of all time, Warren Buffett. He's famously said that you can't value Bitcoin
08:01because it's not a value-producing asset. If you buy something like Bitcoin or some cryptocurrency,
08:06you don't really have anything that's produced anything. You're just hoping the next guy pays more.
08:10To clarify this even further, he then goes on to explain that assets to have value have to deliver
08:15something to somebody. And there's only one currency that's accepted. You could come up with all kinds
08:20of things. We could put up Berkshire coins. But in the end, this is money. And there's no reason
08:25in the world why the United States government is going to let Berkshire money replace theirs.
08:29Now, even though this seems like a fairly rational explanation on the surface, it is worth pointing
08:34out that more recently, the White House has actually begun embracing Bitcoin as a meaningful
08:39innovation, despite Charlie Munger being completely against it. In the past, he's gone so far as to call
08:44Bitcoin rat poison that will go to zero, that it's crazy stupid gambling. Anyone who disagrees is an
08:50idiot. And he compares it to, and I quote, somebody else is trading turds and you decide I can't be
08:56left out. This is partly why one Nobel economist believes that Bitcoin has close to 100% probability
09:02of becoming worthless within the next decade. Jamie Dimon of JP Morgan also agrees with this sentiment,
09:08slamming it as worthless and a tool for criminals, then proceeding to draw comparisons to smoking,
09:13where you have a right to use and own it, but it's bad for you, even though now he's allowing
09:17his clients to buy it. It's also easy for critics to point out that just 1.86% of wallets control
09:23the vast majority of its supply, even though many of those wallets purely hold Bitcoin on behalf of
09:28their clients. But you know what, I digress. Despite plenty of rational Bitcoin skepticism,
09:33plenty of past Bitcoin critics have completely reversed their stance today. Like take a look at the
09:39billionaire Ray Dalio. He previously has called it a bubble, but now refers to it as one hell of an
09:44invention. Or how about Larry Fink from BlackRock? Years ago he said that it's an index of money
09:49laundering, but now he admits it's a legitimate financial instrument. That's why we've recently
09:54had several analysts come in with some pretty shocking price predictions over the next few years
09:59and decades. And if you're curious what I think of this, as well as my own strategy for investing in
10:03Bitcoin, here's what you came for. To start, let's talk Bitcoin price.
10:08Over the next one to three years, it seems like the general price target falls between $100,000
10:13and $200,000 given increased demand, institutional buying, and less regulation. By 2030, you have
10:19investors like Robert Kiyosaki who think that it could hit $300,000 as a bear case, or as high as
10:25$1.5 million in a bull case. Cathie Wood believes it might rise as high as $2.4 million, and you also have
10:32various platforms showing what they think their users believe is a more realistic price, which
10:36falls in the range of $600,000 to $800,000 during this time frame. So take that for what it's worth.
10:42Then by 2035, or roughly 10 years from now, some analysts believe that Bitcoin could reach as high
10:48as a million dollars, or one and a half million as investors shift some demand away from gold,
10:53and Michael Saylor's model suggests $2.1 million could become reasonable. The highest prediction I could
10:59find on this in the next 10 years suggests that Bitcoin could reach a price of $10 million, saying
11:05that every past store of value has perpetually expanded its supply to meet demand. Bitcoin is the
11:10first that cannot. And finally, by 2050, if Bitcoin could be used to settle 10% of the globe's
11:16international trade and 5% of the world's domestic trade, a price of nearly $3 million wouldn't be out
11:22of the ordinary. However, just like other investors believe that Bitcoin's in a bubble and Americans
11:37will be harmed when it falls, there are some pretty severe short-term risks that you need to be made
11:42aware of. And in terms of what I'm doing, here's your answer. The way I see it is that so far,
11:47Bitcoin's not done well when the overall market's falling or where there's an economic slowdown.
11:52For example, just like stocks fell 25% during April's tariffs, Bitcoin fell 30%. It does seem to
11:59have a pretty similar correlation to the NASDAQ. And that means, if the economy slows down,
12:04there's a good chance that Bitcoin could fall alongside everything else, and that needs to be
12:09considered. But on the flip side to that, the fact that there is risk and heavy skepticism leads me to
12:14believe that we still probably have a lot more room to grow, especially because if everyone were
12:19all-in, I would then argue at that point there's no more price discovery left, and we're probably
12:24in a mania with nowhere left to go but down. That's why I think, if you want to lessen your chances of
12:29losing money, just keep this in mind. One, research has shown that the biggest enemy to your entire
12:34portfolio is overconfidence. In this case, a study in 2017 found that investors disproportionately
12:40attributed their success to ability rather than luck. And when that happens, they were more likely
12:45to make riskier investments that eventually lost them a lot of money. Now, two, the hardest barrier
12:50to overcome is emotion. Like, at first, you're hopeful that you can make a ton of money. You read
12:55stories about people who turn thousands into millions, and you think to yourself, oh, I could do
12:59that too. But that's where greed sets in. All of a sudden, you invest more than you're willing to lose,
13:04or you stay in an investment longer than you should, because the price just keeps going higher.
13:09Although, that is usually when you're hit with fear. It's the fear of missing out if you don't
13:13buy in even more, or the fear of losing money as soon as it falls in value. And that is where regret
13:19comes in. What if you invested now instead of later? What if you waited a little bit longer to
13:24see if you could buy it in cheaper? What if all of this regret starts leading to some pretty massive
13:30mistakes? And finally, three, beware fast, quick, easy profits. I've been actively watching and involved
13:36in Bitcoin since late 2016, and I have seen people make a ton of money and then subsequently lose
13:42all of it when it comes crashing down. The only people who I've ever seen successfully make money
13:47in cryptocurrency simply just buy Bitcoin, hold, and do absolutely nothing, even through the ups and
13:54the downs. They don't get emotional. They don't plan to sell. And for them, it really doesn't impact
14:00their life one way or another because they just invest an amount that they're willing to walk
14:04away from or lose entirely. This is why I personally take the approach of investing a small amount of my
14:09portfolio in a Bitcoin ETF I buy in consistently, regardless of where it trades. And even if it's
14:15worth more money one day, great. But even if it's worth less, it would suck, but it's not going to
14:21impact my lifestyle whatsoever. I'm basically invested in this with the mindset that one day it could be
14:26worth $10 million or it could also be worth a dollar. I have no idea, but I'm in it for the
14:32long haul and either way it's going to be okay for me. Oh, and lastly, if I could give you one last
14:36opinion of mine, it's just this, don't buy the hype and don't sell the fear. Anytime I get a feeling of,
14:42oh, I got to do this now. Otherwise I'm going to miss out. I usually end up making some pretty big
14:47mistakes. I make the best investments when it's just calm, collected, a part of my routine
14:52investing portfolio. And that's it. I know all of this sounds pretty boring, especially with Bitcoin
14:58right now at the time I'm recording this, $116,000 at 5% today. But trust me, anytime you make
15:05emotional decisions, whether you're buying or selling, usually that's when mistakes happen.
15:09So make sure to stay the course, set a plan that you're comfortable with, and no matter what,
15:14hit the like button and subscribe if you haven't done that already. So thank you so much for watching.
15:18And as always, if you've made it to this point of the video, feel free to comment down below.
15:21And I will do my best to read and reply to as many views as I can. Thanks again, and until next time.
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