CNBC Today On NVIDIA Stock As Nasdaq Enters Bear Market - NVDA Update
Hosts of CNBC discuss NVIDIA and NVIDIA stock (NVDA stock) as the Nasdaq enters a technical bear market. Today was a very rough day throughout much of the stock market. Today we got news that China is implementing a 34% tariff on US imports in response to the reciprocal tariffs that were announced on Wednesday. Additionally, the President confirmed today that he is indeed trying to move the market lower in the short-term in an attempt to bring down treasury yields and interest rates. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell spoke today, saying that the Fed is in no rush to adjust policy (meaning they are in no rush to cut interest rates). All of this news sent the stock market lower today. In this video we talk about NVIDIA, talk about NVIDIA stock, and talk about the broader stock market in light of the recent downturn.
Timestamps 0:00 CNBC 8:33 FinVid
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00:00Markets are at all-time highs, but should we be getting concerned as investors and traders during one of the fastest rallies we've ever seen?
00:08Well, one thing's for sure, the bonds market is starting to show those signs.
00:12And as many of you will remember, this was the lead indicator that we started to use in February and March to show that things were potentially starting to break.
00:20In today's video, we talk about that along with what's happening in the crypto markets.
00:24We've suspected that maybe these are going to heat up, and it looks like some big breakouts just occurred in both Bitcoin and Ethereum.
00:32A lot to discuss, guys. Don't go anywhere. Let's get into it right now as we cover stocks, commodities, and cryptos for the days ahead. See you soon.
00:45Well, welcome back, everyone, to The Daily Show.
00:47My name's Tom, and in today's video, we really need to talk about leverage and debt, because it is starting to move up, and it does cause some signs of concern when you're talking about the bonds market.
00:59Also, what's been happening?
01:01Well, it's been more around big tech, and could this be the final push?
01:05In the next couple of videos, I suspect that we'll see a few big dark pools, and of course, we'll be updating you to that.
01:11So if you're interested in finding out more about what Wall Street's been up to and what they might be doing next, make sure to subscribe, because we've got some big updates coming into this earnings season.
01:21Let's talk about investor credit.
01:23Now, it hasn't been a secret for a long time that everybody is borrowing, but that's starting to accelerate once again, and we're starting to see the largest, well, of course, the record largest amount of leverage in all sectors,
01:37whether it's single stock ETFs, which are people are buying on leverage, or whether it's just money in bank accounts or money in trading accounts that is being borrowed against.
01:47That has all risen to really ridiculous levels.
01:50The last time we even saw something like this was, of course, the dot-com bubble, and you'll see that this one is a lot larger.
01:57What could be in store in the future?
01:59Well, it's going to be an unwind like no other at some point, but of course, timing will be everything.
02:04Let's talk about retail purchases.
02:06We mentioned this in our last video, which was that single stock leverage is up big time across the board, and this is, again, showing us that we have been seeing a trend towards hyper growth and massively just growth companies being levered against using ETFs.
02:23Everyone thinks an ETF is safe until you actually understand what a leveraged ETF is.
02:27So if you don't, make sure to do a quick chat GPT on that and understand what the actual ETF is doing and how you could lose a lot of money if you're not aware of the gaps and discrepancies that they cause.
02:41Now, why is this all important?
02:42Well, each leveraged period has to be higher than the others, and we've just started to tick over now to FINRA margin statistics showing an all-time high coming for leverage across the markets.
02:55And remember, nowadays, it's not just one place.
02:58It's in the crypto markets.
02:59It's in ETFs.
03:00It's in FINRA margin stats.
03:02It's in so many other areas that we have to be paying attention to this because, like all great bubbles, they all start with debt and usually end with debt.
03:11And in this case, yeah, there are some warning signs that are going to be coming through over the next 6 and 12 months, at least in my opinion.
03:17But for now, what really has been driving this market?
03:20A mixture of really bullish retail traders and, of course, also a mixture of a lot of fund managers losing out and being behind this current rally.
03:30And it has, as you can see here by this cool chart from Daily Chartbook, a noticeable level here in terms of sentiment surveys.
03:38We've gone from everyone being super bearish to everybody being super neutral.
03:43And this is taking us back up to the potential now that we could be leading into FOMO.
03:47So I ask you guys in the comments down below, are you starting to see FOMO across the board?
03:51Or have we not quite seen those levels that we often do reach, where everyone's just piling in because they can't believe it's gone so high and they start to think it's going even more?
04:01If you're asking me about something I could or PLTR, I'd say they definitely have experienced FOMO.
04:06But if you're looking at some of these semiconductors, yeah, they're doing well.
04:10But we've got to remember they were on sideways for quite a period of time.
04:13So who's selling?
04:14Well, it looks like institutions have ramped it up again.
04:17And while I don't pay too much attention to institutions, they are basically selling at faster rates.
04:23Four-week average, you can see here is not too much.
04:26Then last week, they went ballistic with selling.
04:29Now, you could say that's got to do with, you know, maybe just taking profits off the table after the quarter or something.
04:35Who knows?
04:36But certainly a massive institutional sell as the markets kind of dwindled their way up or slowly moved up over the last week is something that we have to be paying attention to
04:45as we hit the key trend line in terms of technicals.
04:48I thought I'd just also add this one in for today before we go through the general period of July because we're approaching the 15th, which, as you guys know, can be a turn point.
04:58And that is that everyone's paying a lot for health care.
05:01Have a look here at the American household and how much health has gone up in terms of insurances and just costs on health over the last kind of 50, 60, 70 years.
05:11And also how much food is in comparison and housing is in comparison.
05:16So health care has now overtaken housing as being more expensive to look after yourself.
05:22And I think that is a shocking statistic, but it probably comes no surprise when we take a look at health care being the nation's number one top employer over the last decade plus.
05:32And it's just going to rise from here.
05:34So why is that interesting?
05:36Why is that important?
05:37Well, clearly, I always say do what they do, not what they say.
05:40And if you look at any of those rich guys right now, especially the rich entrepreneurs, a lot of them seem to be eating whole foods.
05:55And if you haven't followed markets for a long time, when you see a rally, you want to see tech coming back and tech strengthening.
06:03If tech is going back and strengthening, that's a great time.
06:06Remember the stat, 83% of the time, tech will outperform the rest of the market.
06:11And that's because innovation drives growth.
06:14And what we're currently seeing is AI being speculated on heavily to add GDP percentages to the US economy.
06:21Speaking of that, all of the big guys have started to upgrade their path of where they think the S&P is going to be by the end of the year.
06:27Now, so at this stage, they think it's going to be around 6,600, but some people have 7,000, 7,500 and other things.
06:35And one of the big reasons for this has to do with the US dollar, which has been weakening recently.
06:40And therefore, for overseas investors, which is a huge, huge amount of traders out there, everyone wants to be part of the US markets, they're potentially getting the ability to buy markets cheaper than you might think.
06:53Because even though we're at all-time highs, yeah, the US dollar is weakening.
06:56And that's allowing people to get into the US markets a little bit cheaper than they could a while ago.
07:01Christmas in July, NASDAQ is usually up at this point.
07:05And it tends to do well for the first kind of 12 days, and then it can go into a sideways kind of period.
07:12And a lot of this has to do with earnings season kickoff.
07:15So remember, that starts at the end of this week, technically, if we look at it.
07:19But valuations will come into play.
07:22And it's not so much that we're looking here at things like the aircraft companies.
07:27It's going to be the big, big stocks such as the banks that kick us off.
07:31So what are the banks doing?
07:32And JP Morgan is announcing on the 15th of July, CPI coming out that day as well.
07:37That's going to be, I think, a trigger point, which we've discussed.
07:40And if we hit the trend line, which we'll look at in the S&P in just a moment,
07:44all be part of what's kind of going on under the surface here.
07:48Do remember in year threes, we expect up, down, and all around.
07:51And so far, this has been pretty much what's happened.
07:54We've now rallied to a new high, but we do expect a secondary pullback at some point.
08:00And maybe it's worth having some powder dry for that.
08:02Remember, yes, the market generally is going to be bullish, but this is what's occurred
08:07in previous cycles.
08:08And it's always worthwhile at least paying some attention to this if you're out there
08:12and checking it out.
08:13And as we mentioned, the US dollar is overall positioned very weakly.
08:17So at this point, everyone's been selling dollars, but we're at that point where we kind
08:21of start to see maybe their-
08:23You know, they're-
08:23I don't know.
08:23I don't know.
08:24I don't know.
08:24But they're going to start to see maybe their-
