Why ASEAN is Expanding

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00:00While the European Union debates the accession of Ukraine and other countries,

00:04on the other side of the world, the Association of Southeastern Asian Nations, or ASEAN,

00:08is quietly expanding, with its 11th member, Timor-Leste, set to join later this year,

00:14and other nearby countries being floated for membership too.

00:18So in this video, we're going to explain what ASEAN is, the role it plays on the world stage,

00:23why it's expanding, and the challenges that it faces going forwards.

00:30If you're interested in the political alliances and groupings which shape our world,

00:44then you might enjoy our poster, Every Alliance Explained.

00:48It shows, in slightly confusing detail, all of the world's major alliances,

00:53and how different countries link together.

00:55Check out the poster by clicking the link in the description.

00:58So, what is ASEAN?

01:00ASEAN is a 10, soon to be 11, member regional bloc,

01:04comprising Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

01:12It aims to accelerate economic growth, drive cooperation, and promote peace and security in Southeast Asia.

01:19ASEAN is big.

01:20It covers nearly 4.5 million kilometers squared, has a total population of nearly 680 million people,

01:27and a combined GDP of 3.8 trillion dollars.

01:32ASEAN was founded in 1967 by Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand,

01:37which were all concerned about the spread of communism.

01:41However, membership surged through the 1990s, as relative peace came to Southeast Asia.

01:45Now, it's tempting to liken ASEAN to the European Union, but the two bodies are pretty different,

01:52as the EU, a supranational entity, is far more integrated than ASEAN, which is an intergovernmental organization.

01:59ASEAN is also a lot more economically, politically, and culturally diverse.

02:04It has, for example, Singapore, among the world's wealthiest and most developed countries,

02:09and Myanmar, among the world's poorest.

02:12Politically speaking, ASEAN's membership ranged from flawed democracies to absolute monarchies and one-party states.

02:19Nevertheless, over the years, the bloc has come closer together and scored some significant achievements.

02:25In 1995, its members signed a treaty to create a nuclear weapons-free zone.

02:30In the aftermath of the 1997 Asian financial crisis, it launched a regional currency swap arrangement,

02:35and it adopted the ASEAN Charter in 2007, which established the group's legal and institutional framework.

02:42Intra-ASEAN tariffs have been virtually eliminated,

02:45and ASEAN also spearheaded the creation of the massive RCEP Free Trade Agreement,

02:50comprising ASEAN's 10 members, plus China, South Korea, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand.

02:57So, where does ASEAN struggle, and what challenges does it face?

03:01Well, in perhaps the two most significant threats to the region's peace and security,

03:06the Myanmar civil war and the South China Sea dispute,

03:08ASEAN remains divided, and has struggled to chart a way through.

03:13ASEAN member Myanmar spiralled into civil war in 2021,

03:16after the military overthrew the elected government.

03:19Later that year, ASEAN members adopted the Five-Point Consensus,

03:23which called for an immediate ceasefire and constructive dialogue among all parties

03:27to seek a peaceful solution.

03:29This looks great on paper, but years later the war is still raging,

03:34and the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus has clearly been a failure.

03:39ASEAN hasn't been able to be more assertive during the crisis,

03:42in part because one of the bloc's cornerstones is the principle of non-interference,

03:46and because it's been divided on the issue.

03:49Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, for example,

03:51have taken a much harder line on the military regime,

03:54while others like Cambodia, Laos, and Thailand have advocated for a softer approach.

04:00ASEAN faces a major challenge later this year in deciding on a response to the elections planned by the regime

04:05that critics say is a sham aimed at legitimising continued military rule.

04:11Meanwhile, there are divisions over the handling of the dispute in the South China Sea,

04:14where China's expansive maritime claims overlap with those of four ASEAN members.

04:20There have been more than two decades of as-yet inconclusive negotiations between ASEAN and China

04:25over a South China Sea code of conduct,

04:28aimed at managing disputes and lessening tensions.

04:31Some ASEAN members, like the Philippines and Vietnam,

04:34which have the most intense disputed claims with China,

04:37want a legally enforceable code of conduct,

04:40while other less involved and more China-aligned countries like Cambodia and Laos are more hesitant.

04:46But all of that aside, let's take a look at ASEAN's enlargement.

04:49More than a quarter of a century after it last expanded,

04:52Timor-Leste will become ASEAN's 11th member in October 2025,

04:56meaning the bloc will finally include every Southeast Asian nation.

05:01For context, Timor-Leste, which shares the island of Timor with Indonesia,

05:05is a former Portuguese colony of nearly 1.4 million people

05:09that spent the last quarter of the 20th century under a brutal Indonesian occupation,

05:14before eventually winning its independence in 2002.

05:17Timor-Leste's path into ASEAN has been a long one.

05:21It was recognised as an ASEAN observer upon independence in 2002.

05:25In 2011, it applied for full membership.

05:27In 2022, the bloc agreed to its succession in principle,

05:30and earlier this year it agreed to fully admit Timor-Leste

05:33at the 47th ASEAN summit in October.

05:37The long path to accession reflects the fact that Timor-Leste

05:40had to work hard to demonstrate that it could meet the conditions

05:43of membership across its three pillars,

05:46political security, economic and sociocultural.

05:49Much like in EU enlargement debates,

05:51the delay has also been caused by the concerns of various other members

05:55worried about the impact of letting in a comparatively poorer

05:58and less developed country.

06:01In an expression of frustration, Timor-Leste's president said in 2022

06:04that it was easier to enter heaven than ASEAN.

06:09But having overcome the obstacles,

06:11both Timor-Leste and ASEAN can look forward to the benefits of accession.

06:15Despite impressive progress since independence,

06:18Timor-Leste still has a lot that needs improvement.

06:20A significant chunk of its population is below the poverty line,

06:24it lacks economic diversification,

06:26it's heavily reliant on oil revenues,

06:28and it faces a looming budgetary crisis

06:31after decades of unsustainable withdrawals from its sovereign fund.

06:35So accession to ASEAN is a big deal.

06:38It allows Timor-Leste to benefit from ASEAN's free trade agreements,

06:42give it the opportunity to become part of the bloc's integrated value chains,

06:46benefit from its integrated funds,

06:47and enhance its appeal to outside investment.

06:51ASEAN, meanwhile, will be truly region-wide

06:53and gain some much-needed democratic legitimacy,

06:56as Timor-Leste is consistently ranked as the most free and democratic nation

07:00in Southeast Asia.

07:02In fact, Freedom House lists it as the only fully free country in the region.

07:07ASEAN also has the chance to play a more involved role

07:10in Timor-Leste's development going forward,

07:12and benefit from its geostrategic location along maritime trade routes

07:16between Southeast Asia and the Pacific.

07:18Timor-Leste's succession does pose challenges, though.

07:21Not least that adding an 11th member,

07:23and one with strong democratic credentials,

07:26makes the bloc's consensus-driven approach just that little bit harder.

07:30And Timor-Leste's relatively low GDP per capita

07:32heightens ASEAN's so-called developmental divide.

07:35Nevertheless, will Timor-Leste's succession

07:37be the beginning of a new wave of enlargement?

07:40Well, at the ASEAN summit earlier this year,

07:42Indonesia's president said he supported Papua New Guinea's bid to join the bloc,

07:47and Bangladesh has also been canvassing support for joining.

07:50However, there are plenty of hurdles for both,

07:52not least the fact that accession must be approved by all member states,

07:56and the criteria limits membership only to Southeast Asian nations,

08:00which Papua New Guinea and Bangladesh are not,

08:03so some amending would be necessary.

08:05As such, the prospect of further enlargement anytime soon looks slim.

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