- 7/8/2025
This episode of Newstrack covers the anticipated announcement of a limited trade deal between India and the United States. The deal, expected to be announced soon, excludes contentious sectors like dairy and agriculture.
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00:00Hello and welcome. Good evening. You're watching NewsTrack here on India Today.
00:04I'm Akshita Nandakopala. We're counting down to the announcement expected from America
00:09on the trade deal with India. It's a limited trade deal, the announcement that's expected today,
00:14as there are some sticking points which is expected to be addressed in the next few days.
00:19What can you expect from this limited trade deal? How has India really dealt with Trump
00:25and these tariffs? We're going to be breaking it down for you over the next half hour.
00:30Here are the headlines first.
00:35Government of India rejects Aksh's press censorship charge, says never asked Aksh to block Reuters handles.
00:42IT ministry says Aksh was asked to immediately unblock accounts.
00:51Air India plane crash probe team submits preliminary report to government.
00:55Parliamentary committee seeks timeline for complete probe report on Air India plane crash.
01:00Bihar chief minister's big woman outreach before polls promises 35% quota in government jobs for women from the state.
01:12Massive stir in Mumbai.
01:19MNS and Uddhav Sena workers raised protests and slogans against injustice to Marathi people,
01:26slamming police and state government.
01:28Several protesters detained.
01:29Tragic accident in Tamil Nadu's Kadalur.
01:37Three students killed a school bus and train collide.
01:41DMK alleges railway gatekeeper didn't understand Tamil side's language barrier as reason for the tragedy.
01:47Let's begin with all the details that we're picking up here on India today on the trade deal between India and America.
02:07Been in the work for the last many months now.
02:09We're hearing that the announcement could come any time now on exactly what the trade deal looks like.
02:14But here's what we're picking up from our sources.
02:17There's going to be a limited trade deal for now.
02:20Essentially because there are a few sectors on which there's been no middle ground that India and America have been able to reach.
02:26So you're going to see a limited trade deal.
02:28India reportedly has held very firm on its key demands, not giving in and making it clear that these are issues we're not willing to bargain on.
02:36America has shown willingness to engage, but the limited deal will cover some select sectors where there's a broader understanding between India and America.
02:48The broader trade pact, perhaps including sectors like dairy and agriculture, which have been the biggest bones of contention, that you can expect later.
02:58But we're hearing that the announcement could happen any time now and that there will be an announcement made by America.
03:05This will be, of course, the second day because yesterday you already had Trump releasing a whole lot of what's referred to as the tariff letters.
03:12Now, for countries like Japan and several others, Trump already has announced a 25% tariff.
03:19Remains to be seen what exactly the trade deal with India will look like.
03:24Let's bring in our reporters on this broadcast.
03:26I've got Pranay Upadhyay, editor of India Today Global, Karishma Asudhani, who's joining us.
03:31She's from Business Today TV.
03:33Pranay, I'm going to come across to you first on when we're expecting the formal announcement on this limited trade deal.
03:40There are indications that this limited trade deal can be announced any time soon.
03:45You know, the indications are there that can be announced today even.
03:48We have been getting that this interim trade deal will exclude the sticky points, the points pertaining to the agriculture market access, the issues related to our daily products and certain other areas where India has that concern.
04:02And, you know, this trade negotiation, it's a complex process, you know, Akshita, it's been on since quite some time.
04:09And, in fact, President Donald Trump has also acknowledged the fact that India is one of the few countries which has started this trade negotiation with the United States, with the Trump administration at the very early stage.
04:22You know, you will recall, Akshita, that on 12th of February, 2025, when Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Donald Trump met in Oval Office, both the leaders have announced the initiation of this bilateral trade agreement negotiations.
04:34And, in fact, they have set a target, a very ambitious target of $500 billion bilateral trade.
04:41And this bilateral trade agreement is to reach that target, you know, to accomplish that target.
04:47So, this clearly shows that there is an intention, there is an object, but obviously, trade is a very complex negotiation process.
04:54Every tariff line, every product, you have to…
04:55In the fact that we've been seeing negotiations going on for months together between India and America.
05:00Let me bring in Karishma Asudhani also to kind of decode what we could be talking about when we say limited trade deal.
05:07Karishma, what are you picking up from your sources?
05:09What are the sectors that will be a part of the deal for now?
05:11We understand, of course, as Pranay was also telling us, dairy, agriculture, not expected that there will be any sort of deal or agreement on those sectors for now.
05:21Akshita, there is absolute clarity on one aspect that we are not a part of the letters.
05:26In fact, government is confident of the fact that the negotiations that they've had in Washington, which extended beyond two days, have made it to a limited trade deal pact.
05:36Now, the reason I call this is limited is because India has taken a tough stance, a breaking stance on the fact that they are not going to do away with the sectors that's important for their domestic and local interests.
05:49Pranay already mentioned about how important agriculture, dairy, soy, rice or wheat is to us.
05:55At the same time, U.S. has been pushing that they should also get access and bring their products across these sectors, especially that related to maize and soy, which is big in India.
06:11Officials have also told me that had the negotiations not taken a form of consensus, India was ready to take the 26 percent tariff, but was not willing to budge on letting go of these sectors.
06:24So that's big on our part because the fact that we've had a first mover advantage, yet we have not given in any desperation, speaks volumes about how important it was for the trade ministry officials to be able to finalize these negotiations.
06:41Now that they'll be announced today, tomorrow, or even if it's going to extend beyond July 9, it may not be very bothersome because clearly we may not be a part of the August 1 list anymore.
06:54Okay, interesting.
06:55So there is a scope for, in fact, an extended timeline to take talks forward, in which case then remains to be seen whether we're still going to be seeing a limited trade deal or if there's going to be any breakthrough when, you know, you see talks moving forward.
07:09But what's very clear is that both India and America have been approaching this with a very open mind to ensure that both countries benefit.
07:16And that's something we'll talk about also as we move forward in this broadcast of how this kind of a trade deal, look, it's not just about takeaways and positive ones for India, but also very much for America.
07:28They've been pushing hard, so have we.
07:30But at the same time, it looks like there have been some agreements that have been signed right now.
07:35At this point, I can confirm for you that U.S. President Trump is currently also addressing a news conference where he is speaking a whole lot about, really, the tariffs, highlighting, again, the deadline that Karishma referred to of August 1st.
07:49Not necessarily for India, but at the same time, he seems to be shooting on one warning after another to other countries as well.
07:56And here comes the big question, Pranay, of the BRICS factor and the fact that Trump, even now, just shortly before, has said that BRICS is going to get a 10% charge pretty soon.
08:08So, you know, what does that mean for a country like India, too?
08:11Indeed, and you rightly pointed out, Akshita, this has come at a time when India has just assumed the presidency of BRICS.
08:19So, you know, this will be a challenge for India to balance the diplomacy.
08:23But on the other side, if you see India and President Donald Trump's attitude towards India, he has always indicated that India is negotiating with the United States.
08:34And soon, India and United States will have a trade negotiation.
08:38But as far as the BRICS is concerned, certainly, President Donald Trump has been critical about the BRICS.
08:44And, you know, if you see his previous statements as well, he always warned about the de-dollarization or any possibility of replacing dollar as the global currency.
08:53So, you know, U.S. has every reason to feel, you know, concerned about these things.
08:57But whether he will impose, you know, additional 10% tariff or not, because everyone is expecting only or, like, you know, wanting to have a consistency in his statement.
09:09Even the tariff policies, if you see, the bigger concern is the volatility in the market, the volatility in his policies, the volatility in his tariff, you know, announcements.
09:19So, what we are expecting of the globally, every country is expecting that there should be a consistency.
09:24And we do not know what he is saying, what he is threatening or what he is going to implement it, because we have heard around 150% of, you know, tariff announcement regarding China.
09:34But now there is absolutely kind of a silence about the China and the U.S. administration has already announced that they have cracked the deal with China as far as the trade is concerned.
09:43Let's just look at really how negotiations have played out between America and India.
09:49Here's a quick look at the timeline before I take this across to Geeta Mohan as well.
09:53In February, you had the meeting between Prime Minister Modi and President Trump, in which India also went ahead and reduced tariffs.
10:01Remember that Trump, in the run-up to this, has been making many, many statements referring to India as the tariff king, saying that India's tariffs are unfair.
10:10And then a few months later, this is right when America started then slapping tariffs on every country.
10:17India too, U.S. imposed a 10% baseline tariff on all imports.
10:22And India faced a 26% tariff.
10:24On April 9th, the formal announcement was made of reciprocal tariffs taking effect.
10:29There were so many questions really of what that means for every single country.
10:33As far as India went, which like I said, Trump referred to as the tariff king, India faced a 26% tariff.
10:39But then right after that, on the very same day, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on the tariff,
10:47essentially giving way for three months of non-stop dialogue with every country, including India as well.
10:54So then what you saw is right after, about seven days from that particular announcement,
11:00India considered removing import tax on U.S. Athene and on LPG.
11:04After that, April 21st, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance visited India, a number of things on the agenda.
11:10But clearly the focus was also on what will emerge as far as a trade deal goes between India and America.
11:16Each of these visits has been crucial in reaching this stage where we're talking about a limited trade deal.
11:21You had also a formal trade discussion kicking off on April 23rd.
11:25It was very clear that there's a 90-day roadmap, keeping in mind the fact that you had Donald Trump's deadline of 1st August.
11:33Now, Trump has been addressing a news conference where he's spoken also about his tariff plan,
11:38about the fact that he's already gone ahead and announced a slew of tariffs just yesterday.
11:44Listen in to his latest statement.
11:46We will have taken in about $100 billion in tariff income thus far this year,
11:56and that's with the tariff, the major tariff not having started until the second quarter.
12:02So we could expect that that could be well over $300 billion by the end of the year.
12:07The big money will start coming in on August 1st.
12:11I think it was made clear today by the letters that were sent out yesterday and today.
12:16The big money will start coming in on August 1st.
12:20I think it was made clear today by the letters that were sent out yesterday and today.
12:26Okay, let me bring in Geeta Mohan also on this broadcast.
12:30Geeta, you know, we're talking about a limited trade deal for now.
12:34There's some, you know, questions about whether we're going to see that announcement come in in the next few moments.
12:38It could be pushed by another 24 hours.
12:41But Karishma was also highlighting for us, Geeta,
12:43how the deadline of August 1st, which Trump has been reiterating repeatedly, spoke about it today as well,
12:49doesn't really count for India.
12:52Well, it doesn't count for India because the conversations between India and the United States of America are underway.
12:58Although when the finance secretary was in D.C. negotiating terms and conditions with America,
13:09he did not come back successful.
13:11But now we're looking at conversations that have moved ahead and there could very well be a limited trade deal.
13:18What does that mean?
13:19What does that entail is the big question over here.
13:22The fact, Akshita, is that India is very clear on a few things, that agri-products will have to be left out,
13:29that dairy is something that India is not going to touch when it comes to the United States of America,
13:35and that America will have to honor those requirements of India as well
13:40when they're looking at concessions and tariffs for what they want to bring in to India.
13:46A limited trade deal waiting for the fine print, a very important one.
13:52Donald Trump's press briefing is underway as we speak.
13:56He did mention the policies on tariffs for the 14 countries.
14:01He's also going to announce the letters are going to go out for the European Union as well.
14:06So, again, a very significant development there.
14:09But a threat to India, like we just laid out when it comes to all the BRICS forum,
14:15when it comes to the de-dollarization scare that America has, he has called it an anti-America plank.
14:22One will have to wait and see how that BRICS nations are going to deal with, because that's an additional 10.
14:27So, serious concerns there.
14:30But awaiting what this limited trade deal would entail,
14:34what it would comprise of when it comes to India and the United States of America.
14:38And let's just also put the focus on why this trade deal is beneficial,
14:42not just for India, but very much for America too.
14:45And we'll break that down for you, focusing first on the benefits for India
14:49from this kind of a trade deal with America.
14:52There will be exemption from U.S. tariffs on key exports.
14:56So, India as a market will benefit from that.
14:58Boost to textiles, leather, gem.
15:01These are some of the exports that we, in fact, rely on America for.
15:05There's also long-term U.S. LNG supply at stable prices.
15:10We saw developments on this from April as well.
15:13U.S. investments in tech, pharma and electronics hopefully will open up opportunities
15:17for more investment from America to be pumped into India.
15:23As far as America goes, there are a number of aspects they're looking into.
15:26But the benefits from an ideal trade deal is that there will be lower Indian tariffs
15:30on agriculture, auto, medical goods.
15:33There is, of course, that question mark on agri because it's one of those sticking points
15:36between India and America.
15:38It will also mean more access for U.S. digital service companies.
15:42We know India is a huge market for them.
15:45So, they will also benefit from this trade deal.
15:48Increased exports of LNG, which I referred to earlier, of defense and tech.
15:54And we've seen, of course, a whole lot of defense deals between India and America
15:58that could get pushed forward as well.
16:01Strengthened supply chains away from China.
16:03This is perhaps most important for America because they've been constantly trying to ensure
16:07that they isolate China and ensure China is not as powerful.
16:11And so, for that, they're hugely reliant on India,
16:14on ensuring that India-U.S. ties continue to grow in the path that it has been.
16:19Let's talk about the mutual benefits.
16:21For both countries, why this is a win-win situation, if there's a proper trade deal,
16:26a target to raise trade to $500 billion obviously benefits both India and America.
16:31You'll see then streamlined trade norms as well as customs procedures.
16:36There's also deeper strategic alignment in the Indo-Pacific.
16:40And so, you will have U.S. then ensuring that they have a trusted partner in India.
16:45Economic resilience, because you're seeing essentially trade ties
16:49diversifying across various sectors with very clear, streamlined decisions
16:55on exactly what those trade ties look like.
16:58And let me take this across to Karishma again.
17:00Karishma, what would be an ideal trade deal for India?
17:05There's been a lot of negotiations, of course, that have been taking place.
17:08But what's a trade deal that, you know, we could look at and say,
17:11this is perfect for India?
17:13Well, an ideal trade deal for India would be clearly a greater market access in the U.S.
17:20with protection of its sensitive sectors, especially the one that we are talking about.
17:26Maybe a zero or low tariffs on sectors that have already been doing well.
17:32Take it textiles or leather or gems in jewelry, which are labor-intensive sectors for India.
17:37India has put its best foot forward in conveying this to the U.S.
17:43Priority access for pharma and genetic drugs is also something that could be included.
17:49But knowing the fact that how tariffs on pharma have come along,
17:53this could also be slightly on the sensitive note.
17:55So let's keep steel, auto and pharma aside.
17:58And of course, agri aside.
18:01And besides this, all the sectors that are included will have a larger benefit for India
18:09taking in its relationship with the U.S. forward.
18:13And Akshita, it's going to be two-way.
18:14It is not just us having an opportunity to increase our exports
18:18and trying to finally utilize or bank upon the China plus one strategy,
18:24which we've been sitting for five years now.
18:26And since we've had a first-mover advantage in this whole thing,
18:31it is very apt to say that keeping all the other South Asian countries aside,
18:36which were a part of China plus five, we could have an added advantage here.
18:40But besides this, the U.S. also will have a greater access when it comes to the Indian market
18:46and also to strengthen the whole bilateral trade concept between two countries,
18:51especially when U.S. relationship with China is always nerve-wracking.
18:56Yeah.
18:56And I want to just play out for our viewers what exactly Trump had said yesterday.
19:01That's when, of course, you saw a lot of these tariff letters, as it's being called,
19:07being released by Trump, several countries on whom America slapped tariffs.
19:11Those announcements were made.
19:13There was a reference also at that point to what exactly is the trade deal looking like with India.
19:19So listen in to that, and we also want to put out what India has had to say.
19:24This is from a month ago when there was still, of course, active dialogue between India and America
19:27to kind of stitch the trade deal together.
19:30Listen in to what Piyush Goyal had also said.
19:32So both those reactions.
19:35We're close to making a deal with India.
19:37Others we met with and we don't think we're going to be able to make a deal,
19:40so we just send them a letter.
19:41If you want to play ball, this is what you have to pay.
19:45So as far as I'm concerned, we're done.
19:49We're sending out letters to various countries telling them how much tariffs they have to pay.
19:54Some will maybe adjust a little bit depending if they have a cause.
19:59We're not going to be unfair about it.
20:01Our focus has been on FTAs with all the advanced countries.
20:05We entered into an FTA with UAE, Australia, UK, the four EFTA countries.
20:16We're in active dialogue with the United States of America for a bilateral trade agreement,
20:22which the two leaders, President Trump and Prime Minister Modi, announced in February 2025.
20:28The messaging from India and America has been very clear.
20:36Both are looking at a fair trade deal.
20:38You heard that message from Donald Trump.
20:40Rather positive for India at least, where he says that, look,
20:43there are countries with whom we've been unable to stitch a trade deal,
20:47so we just turned them away.
20:48But as far as India goes, we're close to ensuring that there is a trade deal that's signed,
20:52which is good news because it means that essentially the talks,
20:55the dialogue that we've been putting up has held good.
20:58At the same time, sources tell us that India has been very, very firm on its demands.
21:03There's no question of backing off just because of Trump constantly threatening
21:07and attempting to bully many countries into some sort of a trade pact.
21:12So that's the messaging essentially that India is also a resorter to.
21:16When will we know about this limited trade deal?
21:19Well, it's expected that there will be some clarity in the next few hours.
21:23It could also get pushed by 24 hours because, as you heard from our correspondents,
21:28there is also a sense that because India doesn't fall within the deadline bracket of August 1st,
21:33you could see more talks happening between India and America
21:36before there is a formal release on exactly what the trade deal looks like.
21:40But you can count on us here on India Today to get you all of the updates
21:44as we are constantly keeping track of the latest that comes in on this trade deal,
21:48sources telling us that a limited trade deal has been agreed upon for now.
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