00:00Let's talk about tariffs. President Trump gave countries a 90-day pause on the sweeping tariffs he put in place back in April. That pause ends in three days. What happens on Wednesday?
00:12We'll see. I'm not going to give away the playbook because we're going to be very busy over the next 72 hours. We are going to, President Trump's going to be sending letters to some of our trading partners saying that if you don't move things along, then on August 1st,
00:30you will boomerang back to your April 2nd tariff level. So I think we're going to see a lot of deals very quickly.
00:37And, Dana, we're going to send out probably 100 letters to small countries where we don't have very much trade, and most of those are already at the baseline 10%.
00:47But you said August 1st. Do you mean what's going to happen in August?
00:52So countries will get a letter saying that if we have not reached an agreement, then you will go back to the April 2nd level.
01:03Starting when? On August 1st?
01:06On August 1st.
01:06Okay. So there's basically a new deadline.
01:09It's not a new deadline. We are saying this is when it's happening.
01:13If you want to speed things up, have at it. If you want to go back to the old rate, that's your choice.
01:20When you say that there's going to be a lot happening over the next few days and you don't want to give me the playbook, is there a playbook?
01:27Sure. The playbook is to apply maximum pressure.
01:30We saw that the EU was very slow in coming to the table.
01:36Three weeks ago on a Friday morning, President Trump threatened 50% tariffs, and within a few hours, five of the European national leaders had called him,
01:45and Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the EU, was on the phone, and the EU is making very good progress.
01:52They were off to a slow start.
01:53The president said some countries could end up with tariffs as high as 70%.
02:00Which countries is he talking about?
02:02I think you'd go back and look at the April 2nd levels.
02:05But, again, none of those are major trading partners.
02:09There are 18 important trading relationships that account for 95% of our deficit, and those are the ones we're concentrating on.
02:19Are you close to any deals before Wednesday?
02:22I know you're talking now about August 1st, but where are you on any of these deals?
02:27We are close to several deals.
02:29As always, there's a lot of foot dragging on the other side, and, you know, so I would expect to see several big announcements over the next couple of days.
02:40Can you name names?
02:41I'm not going to name names because I don't want to let them off the hook.
02:44Okay.
02:44When you talk about these letters and you talk about kind of the 90 deals in 90 days, or at least the president did back in April, so far we've seen three, and they're not concrete deals the way that we're used to seeing trade deals.
03:01They're frameworks.
03:02The president has a reputation, self-described dealmaker, so why haven't we seen the kind of deals that he promised in the last 90 days?
03:13Again, he didn't promise this, and when we send out the 100 letters to these countries, that will set their tariff rate.
03:21So we're going to have 100 done in the next few days.
03:27But that's not a deal.
03:27That's a threat.
03:29No, that's the level.
03:30That's the deal.
03:32If you want to trade with the United States, this is...
03:35But that's not a negotiation.
03:36That's just a declaration.
03:37Well, many of these countries never even contacted us, so that's the thing about being the deficit country, Dana, is when you are the deficit country, you have the leverage.
03:48These are surplus countries that have exported more to us than we export to them.
03:58So we have the leverage in this situation.
04:01You know, when I talk to small business owners, both doing interviews with them and just in and around in my life interacting with them, I have not met one who has not said it's the uncertainty with the tariffs that is making it so hard for them to do business.
04:18Because they're kind of frozen in place.
04:21What do you say to those business owners?
04:23Well, I'd say two things.
04:25The other thing they would probably have been telling you is it was the uncertainty around taxes.
04:30So with the one big beautiful bill, they now have great certainty on taxes.
04:34No, they've said tariffs.
04:35No, no, but let me finish.
04:37When I'm out talking to businesses, they want trade and taxes.
04:41So we have certainty on taxes now.
04:44All businesses know that they'll be getting 100 percent expensing for new plant and equipment.
04:51On tariffs, again, it is the 18 important trading relationships, and we're moving through those.
04:58I want to ask you about the Fed and the Fed chair.
05:03Your name has been floated as a potential choice to replace Jay Powell.
05:08You aren't ruling that out.
05:12If President Trump told you to cut interest rates as Fed chair, would you do it?
05:16I think that the Fed chair does not cut interest rates.
05:23It is a committee.
05:25So it's up to the open market committee and the voting members to cut rates.
05:30That's not how the president sees it.
05:32Again, the president is probably the most economically sophisticated president we've had in 100 years, maybe ever.
05:39He has a view on rates, and he makes them known, just like Senator Warren makes hers.
