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00:00Coming up on Chopper's Political Podcast.

00:03Get ready folks, that's going to be an extraordinary moment.

00:05A reform of the left, a new party led by Jeremy Corbyn.

00:09Keir Starmer's problems might be getting more complicated.

00:22Welcome back to Chopper's Political Podcast,

00:24where I bring you the best guests, gossip, news and stories

00:27from our studios at GB News here in the heart of Westminster.

00:31This week should have been a cause for celebration

00:33for Sir Keir Starmer, our Prime Minister.

00:36One year since he walked through that door in 10 Downing Street.

00:39But guess what? He's not having a party.

00:41That's been confirmed by Downing Street.

00:43We'll be marking the one year anniversary of Labour in this podcast.

00:46Looking back at what's gone right and what's gone wrong.

00:50And a lot has gone wrong for this government over the past 12 months.

00:53And I'll be looking at an interesting thought

00:55which has emerged this week in Westminster.

00:58Our left-wing MPs are about to get organised

01:00and launch their own version of the reformed UK party

01:04on the left of politics.

01:06And what does that mean if it happens for Labour?

01:10But first, at his cabinet meeting this week,

01:12Number 10 said that Sir Keir Starmer said this.

01:15He reflected on the last year in office,

01:17saying we could all rightly look back

01:19with a real sense of pride and achievement.

01:22He said that was because of tough choices made by his own government

01:25with three trade deals,

01:28spending of review well received by the public,

01:30and industrial strategy well received, he said,

01:33by businesses large and small.

01:35He pointed to a cut in NHS waiting lists,

01:37more than four million extra appointments,

01:39investment in transport,

01:40major infrastructure decisions,

01:42funding for social and affordable housing,

01:45extending free school meals,

01:46and introducing breakfast clubs.

01:48He also said there had been four interest rate cuts in a row,

01:52and global firms were coming back to Britain,

01:53including Amazon,

01:55with an investment of £40 billion.

01:57The PM said business confidence was at a high,

02:01at as high as for many for some years, he said,

02:04and the US trade deal was now implemented for autos and aero.

02:08So, therefore, it's all going swimmingly, isn't it?

02:11Well, maybe not.

02:13This is what the pollster Sir John Curtis said.

02:15He said Sir Kiyosama has had the worst start to a time in government

02:20of any Prime Minister, Tory or Labour.

02:23So, for all the talk of the PM's real sense of pride and achievements,

02:27voters, it seems, have switched off.

02:29Perhaps responding to a year of tax hikes on farmers and employers,

02:34U-turns on grooming gangs,

02:35winter fuel payments to pensioners,

02:37and now this week,

02:39a complete disaster on its own benefits policy.

02:42What on earth has gone wrong, and how did we get here?

02:45Now, before I'm joined by Joe Twyman and Tom Harwood,

02:49of course, the pollster,

02:50and Duke Media's deputy political editor,

02:53I'm joined now by Connor Naismith,

02:55who's the Labour MP for Crew and Natwich.

02:57Connor, welcome to Chopper's political podcast.

03:00Crew and Natwich, of course, is a swing seat.

03:03It tends to go where the government goes, doesn't it?

03:05Yeah.

03:05And that's why you're a Labour MP for that seat.

03:07I remember vividly,

03:08I was when Gwyneth and Woody died back in the day.

03:12I covered the by-election.

03:14I think James Timpson won it?

03:16Edward Timpson.

03:17Ed Timpson won it, that's right.

03:18And one half is quite Tory.

03:21Yes.

03:21And one half is quite Labour.

03:22Yeah, yeah.

03:23I mean...

03:23Blue is the Labour bit,

03:24Nan which is the Tory bit from memory.

03:26Historically, that has been the case.

03:28I think it's fair to say that we live in

03:30kind of volatile political signs.

03:32Yeah, I think in nothing...

03:32And the sands are kind of shifting around us.

03:35I mean, you know, you're absolutely right to say,

03:38historically, Nanswich, as part of the constituency,

03:41has historically voted Conservative in council elections, etc.

03:45And Crew, you know, very kind of post-industrial railway town,

03:50has historically always voted Labour,

03:52strong trade union presence, etc.

03:53As it stands right now, you know,

03:58we're seeing support coming to us in places like Nanswich,

04:01affluent kind of liberal type people

04:04that are moving towards the Labour Party.

04:07And I think it's...

04:08Is that a form, interestingly?

04:09No, not really.

04:11Not really.

04:11But I think it's fair to say,

04:12a lot of this has been acknowledged,

04:14that Labour has a real problem on its hands

04:18of trying to kind of make sure it maintains that connection

04:21with its historic base.

04:23And, you know, we are susceptible to that

04:25as much as anywhere else.

04:27Have you found the past year then?

04:28I mean, it started,

04:29you had the amazing moment of winning that huge landslide.

04:32Very excited.

04:33And I think that the governments have kind of lost momentum,

04:37didn't it, through that summer?

04:38The first hundred days,

04:40Bill Clinton always says,

04:40so important to a new administration.

04:43That energy dissipated like water into the sand

04:46on the beach, in a sense,

04:47because I think they should have had the,

04:49for me, the budget at the end of July,

04:51would have put the kind of imprint

04:54on the government of policy.

04:55I think it's fair to say that,

04:57obviously, the government inherited,

04:59you know, we came into it on a very difficult...

05:01We've heard it like on a set of circumstances.

05:05But, you know, it is fair to say

05:07that I think the government tried to be honest

05:09with the country about that,

05:11and in doing so,

05:13potentially sat, you know,

05:14I think the Prime Minister himself

05:15has acknowledged this,

05:17that, you know,

05:18the speech that he did in the Rose Garden,

05:19for example,

05:20potentially,

05:21potentially kind of sapped some of the hope

05:24out of the government.

05:25I was there, by the way.

05:26There was some hope there,

05:27but the hope left the room.

05:29Yeah, yeah, yeah.

05:30And so, look,

05:32I think that there's lots of amazing things

05:35that this government have done

05:36in the relatively short period

05:38that we've been in office.

05:40I think we do have a claim to say

05:41that we are starting to fix

05:43some of the problems

05:44that the country is facing.

05:45But, you know,

05:47I'm not blind to the fact

05:48that actually the kind of real headline issues

05:51that most people are thinking about

05:53and talking about

05:54are the things that they kind of think

05:56that we got wrong.

05:58Winter fuel,

05:59reversed on that, didn't he?

06:00Yes.

06:01Family farms,

06:02that's an issue from the budget.

06:04National insurance for employers,

06:06that's kind of gone away,

06:07but we're seeing an effect,

06:08maybe,

06:08with the jobless total rising.

06:10That's a worry.

06:11So, I mean,

06:12government has to take decisions

06:13that are not always going to be popular.

06:15And that's, you know,

06:16maybe we're not used to that

06:17in the Labour Party

06:18because we haven't been in government

06:19for quite a long time.

06:20And it's not easy.

06:21It's quite difficult

06:22to kind of shift

06:23to that way of thinking.

06:26But, you know,

06:28look,

06:29I think it's fair to say

06:29some of those unpopular decisions

06:31were the right decisions.

06:32I do agree

06:33that you can't say

06:36that you want to

06:37put billions of pounds

06:38into our NHS,

06:39fix our public services,

06:41do all of these things

06:41that Labour has a mandate

06:43to do from the general election,

06:45but not raise any money

06:46from anywhere.

06:47And so,

06:47although the national insurance

06:48increased changes

06:49and the changes

06:50to inheritance tax

06:51for farmers,

06:52et cetera,

06:52were difficult

06:54and popular,

06:55of course,

06:55some consternation,

06:57you know,

06:57anybody that wants to say

06:59they don't support those things,

07:00but they still support

07:01all of the spending

07:02that we're doing,

07:03has to be able to say

07:04how they would fund it instead.

07:06And that question is,

07:06because we do ask

07:07the Tories

07:08and reform

07:09when they come on,

07:09how would you do it?

07:10It's very easy

07:11chucking your bricks

07:11from the sidelines.

07:13Not easy.

07:13I mean,

07:14the freebie gate

07:15went on for too long

07:16and that was hard

07:17to manage locally

07:18with your new constituents.

07:19Was it the freebie issue,

07:20the glasses,

07:21the spectacles?

07:21I have to say,

07:22I mean,

07:22has it gone away now?

07:23I have to say,

07:24if I'm being completely honest,

07:25that was always

07:25a bit of a Westminster issue.

07:26It didn't come up

07:28on the doors.

07:29You know,

07:30I think it's fair to say

07:31winter fuel

07:32was definitely

07:33a major issue

07:34in our intro

07:36here at UGB News.

07:37And of course,

07:38there have been

07:38other things as well.

07:40But some of the issues

07:41that we tend to focus

07:42on quite a lot here

07:43are not really

07:44the things that...

07:44So who are you looking at?

07:45Because we know the PM,

07:47we know privately,

07:48in fact,

07:48he said this publicly,

07:49he is looking at

07:50reforming UK.

07:51Those five MPs

07:52up to his right

07:53looking out

07:54at the Tory back benches,

07:56those are who he's

07:57worrying about,

07:57not the Tories.

07:59Who do you worry about?

08:00Well,

08:00things can change

08:01quite quickly.

08:02We've seen that,

08:03you know,

08:04but as it stands right now,

08:05I think it's fair to say

08:06if there was an election

08:07tomorrow,

08:07then reform

08:09are the opposition

08:11to us in the country.

08:13It looks like

08:13the next election,

08:15the country will be

08:16faced with the choice

08:16of do you want

08:17a reform UK government

08:19or do you want

08:21a Labour government?

08:22And there's going to be

08:23a big question

08:24put to people

08:24if that is the case.

08:26The Conservative Party

08:27look like they are

08:29dying.

08:30It looks like it is

08:31finished as an institution

08:32and that is...

08:33They've been ridden

08:33up before, Connor.

08:34That's a really

08:35seismic thing to say.

08:36You know,

08:36I understand it

08:37and that's why

08:38I don't,

08:39you know,

08:39take that for granted

08:40because it's such

08:41a historic institution,

08:42you know,

08:42the most successful

08:43political party

08:44in the world.

08:45The Whigs

08:45disappeared.

08:47Yeah,

08:47it's possible.

08:48It's possible.

08:49These things,

08:49you know,

08:50no political party

08:52is owed an existence.

08:53It exists

08:54because it maintains

08:55the support

08:56of the public

08:57and that is true

08:59of the Conservative Party.

09:00It's true of

09:00the Labour Party.

09:01We should never

09:01take that for granted

09:02and I think that

09:04it is potentially

09:05understated.

09:06We don't,

09:07you know,

09:07the Labour Party

09:08obviously talks about it

09:09but the damage

09:11that the Conservative Party

09:12did to its own brand

09:14over that 14 years

09:15in government,

09:16when I speak to people

09:18now,

09:19actually,

09:19when I try and point out,

09:21you know,

09:21as Labour MPs do,

09:22the record of the

09:23previous government,

09:24they'll kind of say,

09:25yeah,

09:26I know,

09:26I know that they

09:28completely ruined the country

09:29and understandably

09:32they want us to say

09:33what we're going to do

09:33to fix it.

09:34I'm going to say it to you,

09:36the Tories,

09:36if they were here,

09:37would say they had

09:37Covid,

09:39they had the energy shock,

09:41that's 400 billion,

09:42that's 100 billion,

09:43that's half a trillion quid

09:44they had to find somewhere

09:45and the tail of that

09:46is in tax increases now

09:48but that's,

09:49but you're fair to you guys

09:50by the way,

09:50you're not saying that,

09:51you're playing the Tories

09:52but the Tories

09:52for their part

09:53would say that.

09:54But, you know,

09:54I mean,

09:55the Conservatives

09:56try and blame

09:57quite a lot on Covid

09:57and one of,

10:00well,

10:00whether it's well handled,

10:02we'll see how that inquiry lands.

10:03I think, look,

10:03nobody would argue

10:05that Covid

10:06was not a

10:07generational,

10:09a once in a lifetime

10:10kind of,

10:11hopefully,

10:12event

10:13that any government,

10:16regardless,

10:16Conservative Labour,

10:17whoever it was,

10:18they would have struggled

10:18to deal with it.

10:19I would never question that

10:21but what we,

10:22I think what we are seeing

10:23from the Conservative Party now

10:24is an attempt to rewrite history

10:26about their record

10:27because, for example,

10:29they will tell you

10:30that the reason the NHS,

10:31NHS waiting lists

10:32are in such a state

10:33is because of Covid.

10:34They were at record levels

10:37pre-Covid

10:38and yes,

10:38Covid exacerbated.

10:40Yes.

10:41But let's not pretend

10:42that that was day one,

10:44can't it?

10:44All about delivery.

10:45This week we're seeing

10:46the government launching

10:48its 10-year NHS programme.

10:50I've been to a few

10:50of these in my time.

10:51I remember one vividly

10:52with Theresa May back in 2017

10:54in hospital in Ealing,

10:56I think it was.

10:58More than that this week.

11:00You know,

11:00you've got to make

11:01the money you've raised

11:02through the next increase

11:03on employers' land.

11:05I mean,

11:05I think it's coming down now

11:064 million more appointments

11:09rather than 2 million

11:09more appointments.

11:11That target of an 18-week

11:12wait to see a doctor,

11:13that's looking questionable

11:15by the end of this parliament,

11:16by the next election.

11:17Let's wait and see.

11:19Well, look,

11:19we've set ourselves

11:20really ambitious targets

11:21on the NHS

11:22and, you know,

11:23you're right to point out

11:24we said in the election

11:25we were going to deliver

11:262 million extra appointments.

11:27That's four?

11:28That's four.

11:29You know,

11:29so we are surpassing

11:30those targets in some areas.

11:32In my own area,

11:33so talking about waiting lists,

11:34waiting lists at my local

11:36hospital trust

11:36are down 7%

11:38since the general election

11:39compared to a 3% drop nationally.

11:41So we are actually

11:42outperforming the national average,

11:44which is already pretty good,

11:45by the way.

11:46Waiting lists are at

11:47the lowest levels

11:48in two years.

11:49So a really good start

11:51on the NHS.

11:52I think that

11:53I'm really looking forward

11:54to seeing the 10-year plan

11:55and I think fundamentally,

11:57I think voters know

11:58that they can trust

11:59a Labour government

11:59on the NHS.

12:00We founded it

12:01at the end of the last...

12:03Well, you had the space to do it.

12:04I don't think the George

12:05ever had space to do it.

12:07They simply had to convince voters

12:08they weren't going to

12:08kill it off altogether.

12:09That's the place they came from.

12:11So in the day we came in it

12:12in 2006 said that

12:14NHS,

12:15those three letters

12:16mattered to me.

12:18Welfare though,

12:18equally welfare is a space

12:20I think only Labour

12:20have a chance

12:21to do a real reform

12:23and I think you've blown it

12:24this week.

12:24I do worry about that.

12:25I think everyone agrees

12:27that there's a problem here

12:29but I think you've got

12:29to also be aware

12:31that, you know,

12:31will you be able to go back

12:32and deal with that

12:33after this humiliation

12:34of the PM this week?

12:36So there is a clear consensus

12:38across the Parliamentary Labour Party

12:39that welfare reform is needed

12:41but I think what we've seen

12:42this week,

12:43well not just this week in fact,

12:45in recent weeks,

12:46is colleagues from across

12:47the Parliamentary Labour Party

12:49saying to the government

12:50we want to work with you on this

12:52but we need to get it right,

12:55you know,

12:55and we cannot rush it.

12:58So what is getting it right?

12:58We know all that.

13:00Is it a full root and brush

13:01look at the benefit system,

13:03report in two years

13:04and we'll adopt what's happening?

13:06I mean the Tim's review,

13:06Stephen Tim's,

13:07he's looking at PIP

13:08which is a bespoke part of it

13:10but a big expensive part of it.

13:11Why don't you just do a proper job on it

13:15rather than this raising 5 billion here

13:17to cover a black hole in the finances?

13:19Well I think the reason that

13:20the government have chosen

13:20to focus on PIP

13:22is because since Covid

13:23we've seen this exponential increase

13:26in the number of claims

13:27and we need to understand

13:29where that is coming from.

13:31Why is that happening?

13:32Particularly amongst young people

13:33and we need to address it.

13:37I think the Tim's review

13:38is really welcome

13:39but particularly

13:40I think we need to see

13:43the Tim's review

13:44co-produced with disabled people.

13:47We need to see...

13:47Well that's happening isn't it?

13:48It is now

13:49but that was not necessarily...

13:51To me and others think

13:52well that means

13:52it won't be cut properly

13:53because those correctly

13:55Scope and others

13:56will be making the case

13:58for people they worry about

13:59but equally there's other problems

14:00in the economy too

14:00which we need to spend money on.

14:02We can't always profit people

14:03who can't work.

14:04Obviously those who can't work

14:06should get the money

14:07but arguably in other cases not.

14:09Well co-production

14:10I mean as the name sort of suggests

14:12it will be produced in cooperation.

14:15It doesn't mean that

14:16any one side of it

14:17is going to get entirely their own way

14:19but you know

14:20we worked to this principle

14:21of nothing done to us without it.

14:23As I said.

14:24That was in our manifesto

14:25and it's right that the government

14:27is going to do that

14:28but the critical point

14:29that I kind of centred on yesterday

14:31when the vote took place

14:32was that that review

14:34should be concluded

14:35and be implemented

14:37before we see a kind of

14:39arbitrary cut off

14:40for new claimants

14:40because we need to make sure

14:42that we are creating

14:43a system that's fair

14:44creating a system

14:45that's been co-produced

14:46that also delivers.

14:48That's why you're a Labour MP

14:49that's why you're

14:49why for this is not

14:51because you're wearing

14:52a red tie

14:52you're a Labour MP

14:53I get that.

14:53My uniform.

14:55Just finally

14:56what are the lessons here

14:57do you think

14:57for the Prime Minister?

14:59I mean have you met him before?

15:00Yes I have.

15:01Oh yes.

15:01Some of you probably

15:02haven't even met him

15:02or talked to him there live?

15:04So the Prime Minister

15:05well he wasn't the Prime Minister

15:06at the time

15:07but he came to my constituency

15:08during the general election campaign

15:09I may have been there actually

15:11You may have been

15:12yes

15:12Kruw Alexandra

15:13football grounds

15:15How was it?

15:16Were you all there?

15:17Great

15:17Well you're all welcome

15:19to the group

15:19I'd love to go again

15:21because he launched

15:22the manifesto that day

15:23we then drove

15:24to Kruw Alexandra

15:25we interviewed him

15:26in the bus

15:26and actually I asked him

15:27a question in the bus

15:28everyone had been chuckling

15:29in the audience

15:30when he said

15:31in a Sky News interview

15:32with an audience

15:33about being a son

15:34of a toolmaker

15:35and he gave an amazing response

15:37he said

15:37I'm sick of people

15:38mocking my dad

15:39that's why

15:40I get upset about it

15:41and then

15:42he really went on

15:42about his dad

15:43it was really moving

15:44he finally gave a response

15:45I think which got

15:46to the heart of Kruw Starmer

15:47that was my Kruw Alexander story

15:49yeah no look

15:50that was a great day

15:51I've met Keir

15:52since being in parliament

15:54you know obviously

15:55let's be honest

15:56the Prime Minister

15:57is a busy man

15:57right

15:58and

15:59we should meet you all

15:59you guys are important

16:00of course

16:01of course

16:01and it's not to say

16:03that there is no lessons

16:04to be learned here

16:05I think the

16:06relations between

16:08the government

16:08and its backbench MPs

16:10what this episode

16:12has demonstrated

16:13is that we have

16:14a parliamentary system

16:15we don't have

16:16a presidential system

16:17the government

16:18of the day

16:19needs to be able

16:20to carry through

16:21its backbench MPs

16:24on what it is

16:25trying to do

16:26we all want

16:27to support the government

16:28we want to do that

16:29but there has to be

16:31a dialogue

16:32and a conversation

16:33to get us into a place

16:34where we're able

16:35to do that

16:36we will work

16:37in good faith

16:38with the government

16:38I am committed

16:39to doing that

16:40but we just

16:42we need to see

16:42better communication

16:43it's not all over

16:44is it

16:45I've heard from

16:46Graham Stringer

16:46he's told GB News

16:48that he thinks

16:49that at some point

16:49yesterday

16:50the government

16:51may have lost

16:51its majority

16:52but it wasn't

16:53tested by a vote

16:54and it was only

16:54brought back

16:55into having a majority

16:56by the changes

16:57announced yesterday

16:58in the chamber

16:59so I'll be completely

17:00honest

17:00prior to those changes

17:02I was not going

17:03to support

17:03what was

17:05because you backed

17:05the original

17:06amendment didn't you

17:09yes I signed

17:10the reasoned amendment

17:11I recognised

17:12that the

17:13concessions

17:14that the government

17:15had made

17:15prior to the weekend

17:16went a significant

17:17way

17:18but it came back

17:19to that point

17:20about the Tim's

17:20review

17:20and the timing

17:21of it

17:22I'd made that

17:22point clear

17:23I knew that

17:24I was not going

17:25to support

17:26the government

17:27at second

17:28how many of them

17:29were you

17:29I don't know

17:30I don't know

17:31to be honest

17:31I think it's fair

17:32to say

17:33the reasoned amendment

17:34gave everybody

17:35a fair sense

17:36of the scale

17:37of things

17:37I don't think

17:38it was the extent

17:38of it

17:38because many

17:39colleagues

17:39were not willing

17:40to sign a reasoned

17:40amendment

17:41even though

17:41they might have

17:42rebelled

17:43but yeah

17:46so prior to that

17:47I was not going

17:48to support it

17:49and the changes

17:50ultimately got me

17:50over the line

17:51we need to see

17:52those written

17:52into the bill

17:53prior to third

17:54reading

17:54which is next

17:55week

17:55yes

17:56your best

17:57moment of your

17:58year as a new

17:59MP

17:59oh best moment

18:01of the year

18:01I think

18:02I'm going to

18:04say

18:04the count

18:06really

18:06that's going

18:07to sound

18:07ridiculous

18:08but it was

18:09all the hard work

18:09yeah

18:10and you know

18:11kind of

18:11each one of those

18:13votes is a vote

18:14of confidence

18:15and trust

18:15in me

18:16as a member

18:18of parliament

18:18emotional for you

18:19and I take

18:20that responsibility

18:21very very seriously

18:22that's partly why

18:23you know

18:24when issues

18:25of great

18:26significance

18:26come along

18:27they matter

18:27I think

18:28it is my duty

18:28to speak up

18:29for every single

18:30one of those people

18:30and that's who

18:31you think of

18:31when you vote

18:32as you should say

18:33and your worst

18:34moment

18:34contemplating

18:35rebelling

18:36this week

18:36in a way

18:39yeah

18:39you know

18:39I mean

18:39I think

18:40as I say

18:42as members

18:43of parliament

18:43we all want

18:44to support

18:44a Labour

18:44government

18:45and I don't

18:47want to be

18:48in a position

18:48where I'm

18:49having to

18:50contemplate

18:50not doing

18:51that

18:51especially

18:52at the

18:52last minute

18:53you know

18:53in the way

18:55that that

18:55kind of

18:55played out

18:56yesterday

18:56Conor A. Smith

18:57Labour MP

18:57for Crew

18:58and NABWitch

18:59thank you for

18:59joining us

19:00today

19:00on Chopper's

19:01political podcast

19:02great to have

19:02you here

19:02thank you

19:06with me now

19:08on Chopper's

19:09political podcast

19:10are the best

19:11in the business

19:12pollster

19:12Joe Twyman

19:14from Delta

19:15Poll

19:15and Tom

19:16Harwood

19:16for GB News'

19:18deputy political

19:19editor

19:19Tom and Joe

19:20welcome to

19:21Chopper's

19:21political podcast

19:22good morning

19:23there we are

19:24I've got through

19:24that hurried

19:25summary of

19:26the past year

19:27but let's go

19:28back to July

19:29last year

19:30it all started

19:31so well

19:31didn't it Joe

19:32he was riding

19:33high in the polls

19:34well he did

19:35very well

19:36in the election

19:37and delivered

19:38a massive majority

19:39and so a lot

19:40of the talk

19:40was a repeat

19:42of 1997

19:43Tony Blair

19:44absolutely

19:45stormed the

19:46polls

19:46and then

19:47did very well

19:48in poll ratings

19:50for many

19:51many months

19:52indeed years

19:53after that

19:53and since then

19:55Tony Blair

19:56and others

19:57in that administration

19:57have talked

19:58about the fact

19:58that perhaps

19:59they concentrated

20:00too much

20:00on the polling

20:02they thought

20:02too much

20:03about focus

20:04groups

20:04and headlines

20:06in the Daily

20:07Mail

20:07and if you're

20:08being generous

20:09to Keir Starmer

20:10you would say

20:10that he has

20:11very very

20:12clearly

20:12not prioritised

20:14polling ratings

20:15in this

20:16first year

20:18so a massive

20:19success

20:19there

20:20I think we can

20:21say

20:21tongue-in-cheek

20:23from Jerry

20:23Twyman

20:24Blair started

20:25his time

20:26in office

20:26by doing that

20:27moment of

20:28taking away

20:28industry

20:29decisions

20:29from the

20:30Treasury

20:30to the

20:31Ministry

20:31Policy

20:32Committee

20:33George Osborne

20:34has talked

20:34about how

20:35that ground

20:35the Tories

20:36face into

20:37the dust

20:37after that

20:38election defeat

20:38that was

20:39announced

20:39three days

20:40after that

20:40win

20:41this government

20:42didn't do

20:43much in that

20:44July

20:44did they

20:44they announced

20:45planning reforms

20:46the winter fuel

20:47payment being

20:48withdrawn from

20:4810 million

20:49pensioners

20:50Tom

20:51they haven't

20:51really started

20:52as though they

20:52want to

20:53govern

20:53properly

20:53with a

20:54momentum

20:54have they

20:55no it's

20:55interesting

20:56they started

20:57immediately

20:57after the

20:58general election

20:59by being

21:00incredibly

21:00dour

21:01you remember

21:01the speech

21:03in the

21:03Downing Street

21:04garden

21:04with the

21:06sort of

21:07spinning of

21:07the inheritance

21:08actually the

21:08day after the

21:09general election

21:10Rachel Reeves

21:10gave a speech

21:11from the

21:11Treasury

21:12saying

21:12we've opened

21:13up the

21:13books and

21:13it's far

21:14far worse

21:15than we

21:15could have

21:15possibly

21:16imagined

21:16and that

21:17was setting

21:18the tone

21:19then for

21:19the next

21:20few months

21:20of just

21:21bad news

21:22bad news

21:23but the

21:24election was

21:25fought not

21:26on bad

21:26news

21:26it was

21:27fought on

21:27one simple

21:28word

21:28change

21:29you might

21:30want to

21:30say

21:30hope

21:31and

21:31change

21:31a bit

21:32of

21:32evoking

21:33the

21:33Obama

21:3408

21:35election

21:35strategy

21:36but that's

21:37the thing

21:38it's so

21:38interesting

21:39that then

21:39there's this

21:40big switch

21:41after the

21:41election

21:42and I

21:43think perhaps

21:44they wanted

21:44to recreate

21:45the magic

21:46of George

21:46Osborne

21:47in the early

21:48coalition years

21:48now that's

21:49perhaps slightly

21:50surprising

21:50because George

21:51Osborne was

21:51famously booed

21:52at the

21:52Olympic Games

21:53in 2012

21:53but crucially

21:55he set in

21:55a narrative

21:56that the

21:57problems

21:57of the

21:58country

21:58were due

21:59to the

21:59previous

22:00government

22:00and people

22:01were willing

22:02to sort

22:02of suck

22:03it up

22:03because that

22:04was the

22:04message

22:04during the

22:05election

22:05campaign

22:06but the

22:07Labour Party

22:08seems to

22:08have done

22:08a bait

22:09and switch

22:09from before

22:10the election

22:10to after

22:11the election

22:11saying look

22:12we can make

22:12everything better

22:13before the

22:13election

22:14and after

22:14the election

22:15saying oh

22:15it's so much

22:16worse than

22:16we thought

22:17we're going

22:17to have to

22:18make cuts

22:18and raise

22:19taxes

22:19they're going

22:20to save

22:21money on

22:21non-DOMs

22:22they're going

22:22to use the

22:23VAT on

22:23private schools

22:24and use the

22:25processes of

22:25growth

22:25those are

22:26three ways

22:26they're going

22:29they cut

22:29the pensioners

22:31when there's

22:31few universal

22:32benefits left

22:33that was removed

22:34I mean Joe

22:35Tyman how did

22:35that poll

22:36that certainly

22:36cut through

22:37for Tom and

22:38me with our

22:39viewers didn't it

22:39Tom?

22:40Yeah it was

22:40not a

22:41universally popular

22:42policy by any

22:43means it wasn't

22:44actually as

22:45unpopular as

22:46perhaps it

22:47might have

22:47there was some

22:49support out

22:49there but

22:50it's one of

22:51those things

22:51that it depends

22:52on how you

22:52ask the question

22:53and it wasn't

22:54that everyone

22:55was having

22:56their winter

22:56fuel removed

22:57it was that it

22:57was becoming

22:58means tested

22:59now the

23:00point at which

23:00you means test

23:01makes it

23:02difficult to

23:03poll you can

23:04poll in the

23:04abstract but

23:05it's one of

23:05these things

23:06that actually

23:06will come down

23:07to messaging

23:08and I think

23:09the timing of

23:09the election

23:10is crucial

23:10here it was

23:11of course for

23:12many of us

23:12a surprise

23:13that it took

23:13place in

23:14July and

23:14looking back

23:15on it you

23:15might think

23:15well why not

23:16May why not

23:17November

23:17but having it

23:19in July and

23:20then going into

23:21a recess and

23:23the summer and

23:24then the party

23:25conference season

23:26I think meant

23:27that really

23:28all of the

23:29parties and

23:29I include

23:29the conservatives

23:30in this as

23:30well were

23:31sort of thrown

23:32by people

23:33going off on

23:33holiday not

23:34being able to

23:34sign off with

23:35various people

23:36and I think

23:37a lot of the

23:38difficulties that

23:39both conservatives

23:40and Labour

23:41have had since

23:42the election

23:43can be attributed

23:44to the fact that

23:44it took Labour

23:45a long time to

23:46sort of get into

23:47the swing of

23:48being in government

23:48and conservatives

23:49to being in

23:50opposition

23:50Tom Harwood

23:51but also this

23:52is a crucial

23:53big messaging

23:54point when

23:55fuel and

23:56energy prices

23:57have been at

23:58the forefront

23:59of people's

24:00minds since

24:002022

24:01it is such

24:02an evocative

24:03issue that

24:04people can

24:04play again

24:05and again

24:06and again

24:06and I was

24:07listening to

24:07a historian

24:08recently talking

24:08about the

24:091964 general

24:10election when

24:11the Labour

24:12shadow foreign

24:13secretary actually

24:14lost his seat

24:15to the Tories

24:15despite the fact

24:16that the Tories

24:18lost the election

24:19and then there

24:20was a by-election

24:20created so that

24:22this guy could

24:22stand and get

24:23back into

24:24Parliament and

24:24become the

24:25foreign secretary

24:26accountable to

24:26Parliament

24:27but he lost

24:29that by-election

24:30why?

24:31Largely

24:31because the

24:33government had

24:34announced delaying

24:35an uplift to

24:35pensions in time

24:36for winter

24:37the by-election

24:39was just after

24:40winter

24:40people weren't

24:41getting pensioners

24:42weren't getting

24:42their extra money

24:43for that

24:45well one might

24:46say winter fuel

24:46or heating or

24:47whatever

24:47and a safe

24:49Labour seat

24:49was lost

24:50to the

24:50Conservatives

24:51in that by-election

24:52shortly after

24:53the 1964

24:54election

24:54and I just

24:55wonder how

24:55many sort

24:56of parallels

24:57are we seeing

24:58there now

24:58so they lost

24:59the hundred

25:00days

25:00so we know

25:01the first

25:01hundred days

25:02there's a

25:02Clintonian idea

25:03built into

25:04the first hundred

25:04days

25:04they lost

25:05that

25:06I remember

25:06at the moment

25:07it was lost

25:07it was a

25:08press conference

25:09given by

25:10Rachel Reeves

25:10in Rolls-Royce

25:11in the first

25:12week of the

25:12election campaign

25:13early May

25:14the Guardian

25:14said to

25:15Rachel Reeves

25:16will you

25:17wait till

25:17the OBR

25:18have scored

25:19your budget

25:20before doing

25:20a budget

25:21she said

25:22yes

25:22that immediately

25:23meant there's

25:23an 11 week

25:24delay in

25:25getting the

25:26budget out

25:26that meant

25:26the budget

25:27couldn't happen

25:27at the end

25:28of July

25:28like it

25:29should have

25:29done

25:29but she

25:29had to

25:30say yes

25:30because she

25:31was so

25:31critical of

25:32Liz Truss

25:32for not

25:33having a

25:33full OBR

25:34report

25:34alongside

25:35her mini

25:36budget

25:36she then

25:37fought the

25:38election

25:38on being

25:39Mrs OBR

25:40we're going

25:40to be

25:41absolutely

25:42subservient

25:43to the

25:44OBR

25:44in every

25:44way

25:45shape

25:45or

25:45form

25:45arguably

25:47she could

25:48have

25:48pushed

25:48back

25:49against

25:49the

25:49OBR

25:49and say

25:50do a

25:50more

25:51back of

25:51the

25:51fag

25:52packet

25:52sort of

25:52calculation

25:53do it

25:53more

25:53quickly

25:53but she's

25:54gold

25:55pleated

25:55the OBR

25:55in legislation

25:56the summer

25:57of gloom

25:58didn't we

25:58the speech

25:59by

25:59Keir Starmer

26:00in August

26:00warning about

26:01the problems

26:02ahead

26:02I mean

26:02Joe Twelmer

26:03you see it

26:04in the

26:04polling

26:04it was

26:04the new

26:06dawn

26:06hadn't

26:06broken

26:06at all

26:07the one

26:07that was

26:08forecast

26:08by Tony

26:08Bayon

26:0897

26:09never

26:09happened

26:09in

26:092024

26:10yeah

26:11and as

26:11I say

26:11I think

26:12a lot

26:12of that

26:12can be

26:12attributed

26:13to messaging

26:13which I

26:14think if

26:14you're

26:15again if

26:15you're

26:15looking at

26:16the timing

26:16could very

26:17well be to

26:18do with

26:18the fact

26:19that after

26:19an election

26:20as we

26:20all know

26:21people are

26:22exhausted

26:22and then in

26:23the summer

26:23as we

26:24all know

26:24people aren't

26:25around

26:25and the

26:26combination

26:26of those

26:26two things

26:27means your

26:27first 100

26:28days

26:29takes you

26:29to party

26:30conferences

26:30but there's

26:32very little

26:32that can

26:33actually be

26:33really

26:34properly

26:34the party

26:35is a vacuum

26:36and into

26:36that vacuum

26:37fell

26:37the freebies

26:39gathered

26:39the freebies

26:40from the

26:41exactly

26:41and so when

26:42you don't

26:42have anything

26:42you don't

26:43have anything

26:44else to talk

26:44about that

26:45does that

26:45matter

26:45that cut

26:46through

26:46the suits

26:47and the

26:48there will

26:51be vanishingly

26:52few people

26:53who in

26:54four years

26:54time we

26:55will be

26:55voting based

26:56on that

26:56but in

26:58the absence

26:58of anything

26:58else to talk

26:59about it

27:00leads to a

27:00situation where

27:01at the

27:01Labour Party

27:02conference I

27:02was asked

27:03on air

27:04is this all

27:05over for

27:05Keir Starmer

27:06I think

27:08that's

27:08what

27:08the surprising

27:09thing for

27:09me was

27:10when you're

27:10in power

27:10you control

27:11the news

27:12so we

27:13rely on

27:14reporting

27:14what's

27:14above the

27:15waterline

27:15if it's

27:16an iceberg

27:17they see

27:18everything

27:19so they

27:19could easily

27:19pull things

27:20out from

27:20below the

27:21waterline

27:21and made

27:22us look

27:22at that

27:22fill the

27:23grid

27:23fill the

27:24grid

27:24as the

27:24awful

27:24you're

27:25right

27:26but isn't

27:26the most

27:27remarkable

27:27thing is

27:28they hired

27:28someone

27:28specifically

27:29to do

27:29this

27:30I think

27:31it was

27:31someone

27:31by the

27:32name

27:32of Sue

27:32Ray

27:33supposed

27:34to plan

27:35for the

27:35most smooth

27:36transition

27:36to government

27:37that any

27:38party

27:38but more

27:41than a year

27:42Keir Starmer

27:42knew he was

27:43going to win

27:43the election

27:43and win it

27:44well

27:44and he

27:46hired

27:46insiders

27:47in order

27:47to try

27:48and smooth

27:48that transition

27:49so the

27:49moment that

27:50he got

27:50into number

27:5110

27:51the moment

27:51that famous

27:52black door

27:53closed behind

27:53him

27:53he would be

27:54ready to go

27:55from the

27:55off

27:55the grid

27:56as we hate

27:56saying

27:57would be

27:57full of

27:58news

27:59and action

27:59and according

28:01to some

28:02briefing

28:02from clearly

28:03some other

28:03factions

28:04in the

28:04Labour Party

28:04those that

28:06were in

28:06the Labour

28:07Party HQ

28:08south of the

28:08river

28:09who were

28:09fighting that

28:10election

28:10when they

28:11finally got

28:12into Downing

28:12Street

28:12and saw

28:13the Downing

28:13Street

28:14preparation

28:14team

28:14they almost

28:16were saying

28:16what were

28:17you guys

28:17doing

28:18there's

28:18nothing

28:19that's

28:19been done

28:20is it

28:20wrong

28:22to blame

28:22her

28:22she's a

28:23lightning rod

28:24for Labour

28:24failures

28:25but is it

28:25all on her

28:26or is it

28:26the party

28:26I simply

28:28don't know

28:28enough about

28:29the machine

28:30within Downing

28:31Street

28:31but I do

28:31think there's

28:32an interesting

28:32comparison

28:32with Donald

28:33Trump

28:33because

28:34regardless

28:35of your

28:35views

28:36of the

28:36policies

28:37that he

28:37has

28:37announced

28:38he had

28:39project

28:392024

28:40ready to

28:41go

28:41and

28:42flooding

28:43the zone

28:44was very

28:44much

28:45the

28:45he had

28:45learned

28:46from the

28:46failure

28:46from

28:462017

28:47he had

28:50learned

28:51from the

28:51fact that

28:51he was

28:52not

28:52prepared

28:52for

28:53government

28:53and so

28:54this

28:54time

28:54the

28:55zone

28:55was

28:56well

28:56flooded

28:56and I

28:58think

28:59if they

28:59could go

29:00back

29:00and do

29:01it all

29:01again

29:01but there

29:02is the

29:02question

29:03about

29:03if you

29:04try and

29:05flood

29:05the

29:05zone

29:06with

29:06really

29:06big

29:06things

29:07in

29:07August

29:08is

29:09anyone

29:09in

29:11the

29:11Westminster

29:11village

29:12or

29:12importantly

29:13more widely

29:13paying any

29:14attention

29:14and yet

29:15surely

29:15what you

29:16should be

29:16doing

29:16if you're

29:16a

29:17government

29:17is

29:17trying

29:18to

29:18make

29:18people

29:18feel

29:19better

29:19off

29:19it's

29:20almost

29:20as

29:20if

29:20as

29:21important

29:22as

29:22the

29:22media

29:22is

29:23and

29:23as

29:23important

29:23as

29:24the

29:24polls

29:24on the

29:26next

29:29election

29:29is

29:29will

29:30people

29:30feel

29:30better

29:31off

29:31four or

29:31five

29:32years

29:32of

29:32time

29:32let's

29:32quickly

29:33spin

29:33through

29:33the

29:33following

29:33months

29:34September

29:34felt like

29:35a

29:35funereal

29:35party

29:36conference

29:36didn't

29:36feel like

29:37a

29:37celebration

29:37it's

29:38part

29:38back

29:39but it

29:39did

29:39reflect

29:40what

29:41we're

29:41talking

29:41about

29:41the

29:41services

29:42on the

29:42other hand

29:42really

29:43excited

29:43they thought

29:44they would

29:44be back

29:45in

29:45government

29:45they were

29:46at the

29:46time

29:46leading

29:47in

29:47some

29:47polls

29:47which

29:48I

29:48think

29:48is

29:48easy

29:48we

29:48forget

29:49it

29:49be

29:49different

29:49the

29:52budget

29:52happened

29:53big

29:54increase

29:54in

29:54national

29:55insurance

29:55employers

29:56share

29:58of that

29:58tax

29:59again

30:00I thought

30:00that was

30:00a bit

30:01questionable

30:02because we're

30:02told it

30:02wouldn't go

30:03up

30:03but that

30:03was

30:04employees

30:04not

30:04employers

30:04we now

30:05find out

30:05the

30:05family

30:06farm

30:06tax

30:07we're

30:08seeing

30:08the

30:08echo

30:09of that

30:09now

30:10with

30:10the

30:10jobless

30:11crisis

30:11happening

30:11now

30:12with

30:12fewer

30:12people

30:12being

30:12employed

30:13is

30:13that

30:13linked

30:13to

30:14national

30:14insurance

30:14did

30:15that

30:15cut

30:15through

30:15the

30:16budget

30:17the

30:17money

30:17they

30:17raised

30:18most

30:18people

30:19the

30:19average

30:20person

30:20in

30:20the

30:20street

30:20isn't

30:23paying

30:23attention

30:24to

30:24the

30:24detail

30:24of

30:25the

30:25budget

30:25or

30:25indeed

30:25any

30:26other

30:26but

30:27instead

30:28they

30:29pick up

30:29broad

30:29narratives

30:30the

30:30stories

30:30that

30:30we

30:30tell

30:31ourselves

30:31and

30:31each

30:31other

30:32about

30:32whether

30:32the

30:33right

30:33decisions

30:34are being

30:34made

30:35whether

30:35the

30:35government

30:35is

30:36delivering

30:36whether

30:36things

30:36are

30:37being

30:37done

30:37fairly

30:37those

30:38are

30:38the

30:38kind

30:38of

30:38important

30:39questions

30:39that

30:40people

30:40take

30:41not

30:41just

30:42from

30:42the

30:42budget

30:42itself

30:42but

30:43from

30:43all

30:43the

30:43coverage

30:492012

30:49it

30:51was

30:51a

30:51case

30:51of

30:52most

30:53things

30:53being

30:53forgotten

30:54and

30:55public

30:55opinion

30:55being

30:56railroaded

30:57along

30:57the

30:57lines

30:57of

30:58things

30:58that

30:58were

30:58not

30:58good

30:58for

30:59the

30:59government

31:00and

31:01so

31:01overall

31:02the

31:02perception

31:03was

31:03actually

31:04that

31:04it

31:04probably

31:04wouldn't

31:05make

31:05much

31:05difference

31:05to

31:06individuals

31:07and

31:07their

31:07families

31:07but

31:08that

31:08overall

31:08it

31:09wasn't

31:09a

31:09great

31:09question

31:09it

31:10was

31:10companies

31:10away

31:11from

31:11individuals

31:11that

31:12was

31:12possibly

31:12why

31:12fast

31:13forward

31:14to

31:14this

31:14year

31:14they

31:14keep

31:15launching

31:16the

31:19no

31:20to

31:20a

31:20grooming

31:21gang's

31:21inquiry

31:21Tom

31:22Howard

31:22that's

31:22been

31:23reversed

31:23big

31:24spending

31:25on

31:25infrastructure

31:25but

31:26mainly

31:26in

31:26the

31:26south

31:26so

31:27they

31:28kind

31:28of

31:28clawed

31:28their

31:28way

31:28back

31:29into

31:29having

31:29an

31:30idea

31:30what

31:30they

31:30were

31:30trying

31:31to

31:31be

31:31this

31:32year

31:33didn't

31:33they

31:33Tom

31:33before

31:33the

31:34budget

31:34I

31:34think

31:34there's

31:35a

31:35clear

31:35difference

31:36in

31:36just

31:36the

31:37smooth

31:38workings

31:38of

31:38government

31:39before

31:39and

31:39after

31:40Christmas

31:40and

31:40I

31:41don't

31:41want

31:41to

31:41put

31:41everything

31:42on

31:42Sue

31:42Gray

31:42I

31:42think

31:43Sue

31:43Gray

31:43is

31:43a

31:44lightning

31:44rod

31:44that

31:44represents

31:45a lot

31:45more

31:45but

31:46clearly

31:47what

31:47happened

31:47was

31:48you

31:48got

31:48more

31:48political

31:49people

31:49at

31:50the

31:50heart

31:50of

31:50number

31:5010

31:51when

31:51Morgan

31:52McSweeney

31:52took

31:52over

31:53as

31:53chief

31:53of

31:54staff

31:54I

31:55think

31:55you

31:55started

31:56to

31:56see

31:56some

31:57decisions

31:57that

31:57were

31:57actually

31:58thinking

31:58beyond

31:59the

31:59Westminster

31:59bubble

32:00now

32:00this

32:00is

32:00a

32:01double

32:01edged

32:01sword

32:02as

32:02I'm

32:02sure

32:02we

32:03will

32:03come

32:03on

32:03to

32:03but

32:04thinking

32:12increasing

32:13spending

32:13on the

32:14military

32:14and I'm

32:17sure

32:17it

32:17pulls

32:18incredibly

32:18well

32:18and goes

32:19down

32:19well

32:19in

32:19focus

32:20groups

32:20I

32:20remember

32:21talking

32:21at one

32:22point

32:22to

32:23some

32:23senior

32:23Conservative

32:24organisers

32:24about

32:25which

32:25cabinet

32:25ministers

32:26to

32:26send

32:26where

32:26this

32:26was

32:27when

32:27Priti Patel

32:27was

32:27international

32:28trade

32:28secretary

32:28and

32:28some

32:29people

32:29were

32:29saying

32:29everyone

32:30loves

32:30Priti

32:30let's

32:30send

32:30her

32:30there

32:31and

32:31the

32:32MPs

32:32were

32:32just

32:32like

32:33no

32:33the

32:34one

32:34person

32:35the

32:35one

32:35cabinet

32:36secretary

32:36we

32:36do

32:42incredibly

32:42badly

32:42on

32:43the

32:43doorsteps

32:43so

32:44I

32:44think

32:44that

32:44they've

32:44made

32:44some

32:45smart

32:45political

32:45choices

32:46but

32:46in

32:47doing

32:47that

32:47in

32:47looking

32:48so

32:48crucially

32:49to

32:49the

32:49country

32:50and

32:50the

32:51marginal

32:51way

32:53to

32:53win

32:53with

32:53their

32:54broad

32:54but

32:54shallow

32:54coalition

32:55of

32:55voters

32:55they've

32:56forgotten

32:57the

32:57MPs

32:57I

32:58think

33:01there's

33:01a

33:01really

33:01interesting

33:02point

33:02about

33:03bad

33:04luck

33:05as

33:05well

33:05and

33:06the

33:06industrial

33:06strategy

33:07this

33:07new

33:08important

33:08document

33:08which

33:09was

33:09so

33:09vital

33:10to

33:11Labour

33:12and

33:12they

33:12talked

33:13it

33:13up

33:13so

33:13much

33:14and

33:15it's

33:15one

33:16of

33:16these

33:16things

33:16that

33:16does

33:16well

33:17and

33:17yet

33:17it's

33:17released

33:18when

33:18there's

33:19an

33:20international

33:20incident

33:21that

33:21the

33:21government

33:22has

33:22no

33:22control

33:22over

33:23and

33:23so

33:23it

33:23absolutely

33:24disappears

33:24they were

33:25expecting

33:25front pages

33:26and it

33:26won't

33:27have made

33:27any

33:27of them

33:27yeah

33:28well

33:28yeah

33:28but

33:28you

33:29can't

33:29all

33:29blame

33:29bad luck

33:30a lot

33:30of it

33:30is

33:30their

33:30fault

33:31events

33:31dear

33:31boy

33:31I

33:32mean

33:33and

33:33then

33:33we've

33:33got

33:33slow

33:34growth

33:34sluggish

33:35growth

33:35that

33:36led

33:36to

33:36the

33:36benefits

33:36cuts

33:37which

33:37have

33:37been

33:37reversed

33:38here

33:38they

33:38seem

33:38to be

33:39battered

33:39by

33:39events

33:39Tom

33:40Howard

33:40don't

33:40they

33:40reform

33:41UK

33:41did

33:42well

33:42in

33:42the

33:42local

33:42elections

33:43US

33:43trade

33:44on

33:44the

33:44foreign

33:45stage

33:45I've

33:45been

33:45lucky enough

33:45to be

33:46with him

33:46for GB

33:46news

33:47a lot

33:47of

33:48travelling

33:48with

33:48the

33:48PN

33:48he's

33:49done

33:49pretty

33:49well

33:49three

33:49trade

33:50deals

33:50two

33:52trade

33:53deals

33:53and a

33:54trade

33:54salvage

33:55operation

33:55I

33:56mean

33:56the US

33:56trade

33:57deal

33:57is

33:57not

33:57a

33:57comprehensive

33:58free

33:58trade

33:58agreement

33:59it

33:59is

33:59the

33:59reversal

34:00of

34:01some

34:02tariffs

34:02put on

34:03two

34:03months

34:03beforehand

34:03right

34:04so

34:04it's

34:05put us

34:05back

34:05to

34:05pretty

34:06much

34:06where

34:06we

34:06were

34:06or

34:07just

34:07slightly

34:07less

34:07well

34:08in terms

34:09of

34:09our

34:09trading

34:09relationship

34:10than

34:10where

34:10we

34:10were

34:10before

34:10liberalised

34:11trade

34:12it

34:12has

34:12not

34:12but

34:13of

34:13course

34:13it

34:13is

34:14better

34:14than

34:14for

34:15example

34:15the

34:15European

34:15Union

34:16or

34:16other

34:16countries

34:16around

34:17the

34:17world

34:17that

34:17face

34:26he

34:26wants

34:26to

34:26present

34:27that

34:27sort

34:27of

34:27I'm

34:27a

34:27busy

34:28man

34:28I'm

34:28shaking

34:28hands

34:29and

34:29that's

34:29the

34:29advantage

34:30a

34:30prime minister

34:30can have

34:31prefers Davos

34:32to Westminster

34:33he says

34:33but perhaps

34:33that's coming

34:34back to bite

34:34him

34:35this week

34:35because

34:36I've

34:36heard

34:37today

34:37and

34:38this

34:38week

34:38talking

34:38on

34:39Wednesday

34:39morning

34:39after the

34:41vote

34:41but I'm

34:41sure

34:41we will

34:42hear it

34:42again

34:42and

34:42again

34:42it's

34:42one

34:43of

34:43the

34:43talking

34:43points

34:43from

34:43the

34:43government

34:44that

34:44Tony

34:45Blair

34:45suffered

34:46a

34:46rebellion

34:46on

34:47benefits

34:48changes

34:48in his

34:49first

34:49two

34:49years

34:50in his

34:50first

34:50year

34:51I think

34:51in

34:51government

34:52and

34:52around

34:53I think

34:53it was

34:5345

34:54Labour

34:55MPs

34:56rebelled

34:56against

34:56Tony

34:57Blair

34:57then

34:58and

34:5949

35:00rebelled

35:00against

35:00Keir

35:01Starmer

35:01this

35:02week

35:02but

35:03here's

35:03the

35:03difference

35:04Tony

35:04Blair

35:04passed

35:05his

35:05benefit

35:05reforms

35:06whereas

35:07Keir

35:08Starmer

35:08had to

35:09completely

35:09go back

35:10on his

35:10now both

35:11face

35:11similar

35:12spending

35:12restraints

35:13Rachel

35:13Reeves

35:14has her

35:14spending

35:16wheels

35:16Tony

35:17Blair

35:17it's better

35:18in 98

35:18for the

35:19Labour

35:19than

35:19now

35:19it was

35:20only

35:20better

35:20because

35:21growth

35:21was at

35:214%

35:22that was

35:22the

35:22inheritance

35:23of the

35:23major

35:23government

35:23and

35:24particularly

35:24Ken

35:24Clark

35:25growth

35:26is

35:26basically

35:26at

35:26zero

35:27today

35:27so

35:27I

35:27mean

35:27actually

35:28in

35:28some

35:28ways

35:29the

35:29borrowing

35:29rules

35:30are more

35:30generous

35:30today

35:31particularly

35:31for

35:31infrastructure

35:32but

35:32the

35:33growth

35:33is

35:33so

35:33much

35:33lower

35:34that

35:34it

35:34feels

35:34tighter

35:35anyway

35:35the

35:36comparison

35:36is

35:36that

35:37Tony

35:37Blair

35:37who

35:38had

35:38a

35:38similar

35:38scale

35:38majority

35:39was

35:39able

35:39to

35:40pass

35:40difficult

35:40and

35:41unpopular

35:41reform

35:41with his

35:42backbenches

35:42Keir Starmer

35:43has not

35:44been able

35:44to pass

35:45difficult

35:45and unpopular

35:45reform

35:46in his

35:46backbenches

35:46does that

35:47matter

35:47being

35:47battered

35:48by your

35:48own

35:48MPs

35:49in the

35:49polls

35:49well

35:50parties

35:51don't

35:52like

35:52to

35:52look

35:53like

35:53they're

35:53divided

35:54that

35:54never

35:54goes

35:55down

35:55well

35:56with

35:57voters

35:57again

35:57it's

35:58these

35:58broad

35:59narratives

35:59individually

36:01each

36:01one

36:02of

36:02these

36:02events

36:02that

36:02we're

36:03talking

36:03about

36:03particularly

36:04most

36:04recently

36:04the

36:05benefits

36:05these

36:06are

36:06talking

36:09but

36:10collectively

36:11they

36:11help

36:12to

36:12inform

36:12the

36:13way

36:13that

36:13people

36:13think

36:14about

36:14parties

36:14and

36:15so

36:15a

36:15party

36:16that

36:16is

36:16divided

36:17a

36:17party

36:17that

36:18perhaps

36:18doesn't

36:18come

36:19across

36:19as

36:19particularly

36:20effective

36:20all

36:21these

36:21things

36:22are

36:22damaging

36:23what

36:23Tony

36:24Blair

36:24was

36:24able

36:24to

36:24do

36:25was

36:25use

36:26quite

36:27frankly

36:27the

36:27force

36:28of

36:28his

36:28popularity

36:29to

36:29get

36:29these

36:29things

36:30through

36:30coupled

36:30with

36:31positive

36:32views

36:33of the

36:33economy

36:33neither

36:34of which

36:34existed

36:34I

36:35mean

36:35they

36:35were

36:35so

36:35good

36:36they

36:36just

36:39forced

36:39in

36:40that

36:40first

36:40term

36:40I

36:40remember

36:41vividly

36:41that

36:41what

36:42do

36:42you

36:42think

36:43voters

36:43think

36:44the

36:45government

36:45stands

36:45for

36:45what

36:46is

36:47starmerism

36:47is it

36:48anything

36:48or is

36:48that

36:48a word

36:49that

36:49we

36:49can't

36:50even

36:50talk

36:50about

36:50I

36:51think

36:51the

36:51term

36:52starmerism

36:52is

36:52perhaps

36:53too

36:54strong

36:55thing

36:55I

36:56remember

36:56majorism

36:57was

36:58something

36:58people

36:59were trying

36:59to sell

36:59in the

37:0090s

37:00and it

37:00never

37:00really

37:01caught

37:02on

37:027%

37:04of people

37:04say

37:04they

37:04don't

37:05know

37:05whether

37:05Keir

37:06Starmer

37:06doing

37:07a

37:07good

37:07or

37:07bad

37:08job

37:08which

37:08is

37:09slightly

37:10higher

37:10than

37:11previous

37:12prime

37:12ministers

37:12but

37:12demonstrates

37:13that

37:13people

37:14overall

37:15have an

37:15idea

37:15of whether

37:16he's

37:16doing

37:16well

37:16or

37:16badly

37:17but

37:17there's

37:17not

37:17really

37:18a

37:18strong

37:18sense

37:19of

37:19what

37:19he

37:19stands

37:20for

37:20but

37:21I

37:21think

37:21that's

37:21very

37:21much

37:22by

37:22design

37:23and

37:24that's

37:26what helped

37:27Kier

37:27Starmer win

37:28the election

37:28right

37:29by being

37:31as Boris

37:31Johnson

37:32once

37:32said

37:32a

37:33bland

37:33boring

37:33bollard

37:34I

37:35mean

37:35by being

37:35that

37:36bland

37:36boring

37:36bollard

37:37he

37:37was

37:38not

37:38a

37:38lightning

37:39rod

37:39for

37:39opposition

37:40now

37:41he

37:41could

37:41win

37:41on

37:42the

37:4233.4%

37:44of the

37:44vote

37:44I think

37:44he won

37:45in the

37:45general

37:45election

37:46because

37:46he

37:47had

37:47a

37:47very

37:47split

37:47opposition

37:48now

37:48the

37:48problem

37:49with

37:50then

37:50becoming

37:50prime

37:50minister

37:51and

37:51actually

37:51doing

37:51things

37:52is

37:52that

37:53that

37:53opposition

37:54could

37:54coalesce

37:55and

37:55suddenly

37:55a

37:5633%

37:56level

37:58in the

37:58polls

37:58does

37:58not

37:59look

37:59quite

37:59as

37:59impressive

38:00because

38:00there

38:00isn't

38:01quite

38:01such

38:01split

38:01opposition

38:02just

38:03briefly

38:03on

38:03that

38:04we're

38:04talking

38:04shortly

38:05in

38:05this

38:05podcast

38:06Andrew

38:06Murray

38:07of

38:07Formula

38:08United

38:08now

38:09works

38:09the

38:09morning

38:10star

38:10all the

38:10talk is

38:11of a

38:11reform

38:12of the

38:12left

38:13Joe

38:13Twyman

38:13starting

38:14up

38:14left

38:15wing

38:16party

38:16led

38:16maybe

38:16by

38:17Jeremy

38:18Corbyn

38:18could

38:18get

38:1910%

38:19of the

38:19polls

38:20according

38:20to

38:20a

38:20rival

38:21pollster

38:21this

38:21week

38:22Joe

38:22Twyman

38:23your

38:23take

38:23on

38:23that

38:23well

38:23could

38:24is

38:24doing

38:24an

38:24extraordinarily

38:25large

38:25amount

38:26of

38:26heavy

38:26lifting

38:26in

38:27that

38:27instance

38:27it's

38:28a

38:28perfectly

38:28valid

38:28question

38:29to

38:29ask

38:30you

38:30can

38:30ask

38:30people

38:31if

38:31this

38:32party

38:32existed

38:32would

38:33you

38:33vote

38:33for

38:33it

38:33but

38:34the

38:34question

38:34they

38:34answer

38:35then

38:36is

38:36actually

38:37how

38:38do

38:38I

38:38feel

38:38about

38:38the

38:39established

38:39parties

38:40generally

38:40they

38:41project

38:41their

38:41own

38:41hopes

38:42and

38:42positivity

38:43it's

38:43onto

38:43those

38:4310%

38:44is

38:44full

38:45to

38:45gold

38:45as

38:46the

38:46former

38:46pollster

38:47for

38:47change

38:47UK

38:47I'd

38:48be

38:48very

38:48surprised

38:49if

38:49it

38:49was

38:4910%

38:50I

38:50just

38:50find

38:50to

38:57the

38:57election

38:57campaign

38:58you're

38:58shaking

38:59your

38:59head

38:59Tom

39:00Harwood

39:00what

39:01would

39:01you

39:01do

39:01if

39:01you

39:01were

39:01Prime

39:02Minister

39:02or

39:02how

39:03could

39:03Labour

39:03get

39:03out

39:03of

39:03this

39:04hole

39:04I

39:04mean

39:05they've

39:05got

39:05to

39:05deliver

39:05frankly

39:06if

39:06people

39:06feel

39:07poorer

39:07at

39:07the

39:07end

39:08of

39:08the

39:08parliament

39:08they're

39:08out

39:09it's

39:09a

39:09famous

39:09quip

39:10that

39:11obviously

39:11oppositions

39:12don't

39:12win

39:13elections

39:13governments

39:13lose

39:14them

39:14and

39:15whilst

39:16we're

39:16talking

39:16about

39:17all

39:17the

39:17specifics

39:18that

39:18have

39:18happened

39:18in

39:27that

39:27year

39:28those

39:28general

39:29themes

39:29if

39:30people

39:30feel

39:30that

39:30this

39:31is

39:31a

39:31divided

39:31government

39:32a

39:32government

39:33that

39:33doesn't

39:33have

39:33a

39:33clear

39:34direction

39:34that

39:35doesn't

39:35know

39:35its

39:35own

39:36mind

39:36and

39:36ends

39:36up

39:37taxing

39:37everyone

39:37more

39:38as a

39:38result

39:39that's

39:40a

39:40toxic

39:40combination

39:41Joe

39:41time

39:41to

39:41you

39:41finally

39:42what

39:42do

39:43voters

39:43want

39:43the

39:44government

39:44to do

39:44next

39:44four

39:44years

39:45to

39:45come

39:45out

39:45this

39:46slough

39:46of

39:46despond

39:47well

39:47they

39:47want

39:47growth

39:48they

39:48want

39:49the

39:49cost

39:49of

39:50living

39:50to

39:50come

39:51down

39:51and

39:51they

39:52want

39:52their

39:52economic

39:52situation

39:53to

39:53improve

39:54I

39:54think

39:55that

39:55Labour

39:56has

39:56to

39:56be

39:56consistent

39:58on

39:58delivery

39:58as

39:58Tom

39:59quite

39:59rightly

39:59says

40:00but

40:00they

40:01also

40:01have

40:01to

40:02not

40:02get

40:02too

40:03caught

40:04up

40:04with

40:05Nigel

40:05Farage

40:05you

40:06can't

40:06out

40:06Farage

40:07Farage

40:07there

40:07are

40:07very

40:08important

40:08elections

40:09in

40:09Scotland

40:09and

40:10Wales

40:10and

40:10other

40:10parts

40:10of

40:11the

40:11country

40:11next

40:12May

40:12so

40:13it's

40:13all

40:13very

40:13well

40:13saying

40:14it's

40:14three

40:14years

40:15until

40:15the

40:15general

40:15election

40:15starts

40:16but

40:16actually

40:17very

40:17important

40:17elections

40:18next

40:18May

40:18and

40:19reform

40:20could

40:20do

40:21very

40:21well

40:21over

40:22compensating

40:22for

40:23that

40:23could

40:23derail

40:24plans

40:25for the

40:25general

40:26election

40:26more

40:26widely

40:27Joe

40:27Twyman

40:27from

40:28Delta

40:28Pearl

40:28Tom

40:29Harwood

40:29of course

40:29from GB

40:30News

40:30thank you

40:30both

40:31for joining

40:31us

40:31today

40:31on

40:31Chopper's

40:32Political

40:32Podcast

40:32thank

40:33you

40:33thank

40:33you

40:33thanks

40:34so

40:39with all

40:39this

40:39chat

40:39about

40:39Labour

40:40and

40:41who

40:41is

40:41in

40:41government

40:42are

40:42struck

40:42by

40:42a

40:43poll

40:43for

40:43more

40:43in

40:44common

40:44this

40:45week

40:45which

40:45found

40:46that

40:46a

40:46new

40:46left

40:47wing

40:47party

40:47led

40:48by

40:48Jeremy

40:48Corbyn

40:49could

40:49attract

40:50maybe

40:5010%

40:51of

40:51voters

40:52support

40:53and pose

40:54a fresh

40:54challenge

40:55to

40:55Sir

40:55Keir

40:56Starmer

40:56under

40:57this

40:57model

40:57Labour's

40:58share

40:58the

40:58vote

40:58would

40:58drop

40:59from

40:59its

40:59current

40:5923%

41:00to

41:0020%

41:01the

41:01Greens

41:01would

41:02fall

41:02from

41:029%

41:03to

41:035%

41:04and

41:04the

41:04S&P

41:04from

41:051%

41:06to

41:072%

41:08the

41:08point

41:09there

41:09being

41:09the

41:09main

41:10parties

41:10would

41:10see

41:10support

41:11on

41:11the

41:11left

41:11leech

41:12away

41:12to

41:12this

41:13new

41:13party

41:13is

41:13a

41:14tantalising

41:14prospect

41:15is

41:16Labour

41:16about

41:17to

41:17feel

41:17the

41:17jolt

41:18of

41:18competition

41:18from

41:19its

41:19left

41:19wing

41:19flank

41:20in

41:20the

41:20same

41:20way

41:21the

41:21toys

41:21have

41:21done

41:21from

41:22Nigel

41:23Farage's

41:24Reform

41:24UK

41:25and

41:25joined

41:26now

41:26by

41:26Andrew

41:27Murray

41:27a

41:27former

41:28senior

41:28aide

41:29in

41:29Unite

41:30the

41:30union

41:30when

41:31he

41:31was

41:31a

41:31big

41:31backer

41:31of

41:38chopper's

41:38political

41:39podcast

41:40you've

41:40been

41:40around

41:40longer

41:41than

41:41I

41:41have

41:41and

41:42I've

41:42been

41:42around

41:42a while

41:43in

41:43politics

41:43you were

41:44in the

41:45Morningstar

41:45lobby team

41:46back in

41:46the

41:4670s

41:47yes

41:47I was

41:47in the

41:48press

41:48gallery

41:48in the

41:49commons

41:49the day

41:49the

41:50Labour

41:50government

41:50fell

41:51in

41:511979

41:52on a

41:52vote

41:53of

41:53confidence

41:54by one

41:55by one

41:55vote

41:56that was

41:56history

41:57being

41:57made

41:57I was

42:01a very

42:01young

42:02lobby

42:02correspondent

42:02at the

42:04time

42:04this

42:05is

42:05interesting

42:06I

42:06think

42:06this

42:06talk of

42:07this

42:07left

42:07wing

42:08Labour

42:08party

42:08you

42:09live

42:09and

42:10breathe

42:10this

42:11whole

42:11world

42:11of course

42:12you

42:12actually

42:12do

42:12work

42:13for

42:13the

42:13Morningstar

42:13as well

42:14again

42:15does

42:16Labour

42:16you think

42:17does

42:17the

42:18left

42:18need

42:19a

42:19left

42:20wing

42:20version

42:21of

42:21what

42:21reform

42:21UK

42:21has

42:22done

42:22to

42:22the

42:22right

42:22well

42:23there

42:23is

42:23definitely

42:24a

42:24gap

42:24there

42:25if

42:25we

42:25remember

42:26that

42:26in

42:262017

42:27Jeremy

42:28Corbyn

42:28as

42:29leader

42:29of

42:29the

42:29Labour

42:29party

42:30was

42:30not

42:31far

42:31off

42:31winning

42:31the

42:32general

42:32election

42:32and

42:33in

42:33that

42:34election

42:38Keir

42:42Starmer

42:42did

42:42better

42:42in

42:43terms

42:43of

42:43seats

42:43absolutely

42:44clearly

42:44because

42:44the

42:45way

42:45the

42:45system

42:45works

42:45but

42:47he

42:49was

42:49only

42:49elected

42:49with

42:5034%

42:50of

42:51the

42:51vote

42:51or

42:51there

42:51about

42:52Labour

42:52got

42:5340%

42:53in

42:542017

42:55on

42:55a

42:55much

42:55more

42:56consistently

42:56left

42:57wing

42:57policy

42:58offering

42:59so

42:59that

43:00illustrates

43:00the

43:01potential

43:01and

43:02the

43:02gap

43:02and

43:03if

43:03one

43:03adds

43:04in

43:04that

43:04Keir

43:05Starmer

43:06has

43:06really

43:06been

43:06pretty

43:07ruthless

43:07towards

43:09the

43:09left

43:09throughout

43:10his

43:10leadership

43:10both

43:11as

43:11leader

43:11of

43:11the

43:11opposition

43:12and

43:12as

43:13prime

43:13minister

43:13he's

43:14not

43:14been

43:14tolerant

43:14of

43:15dissent

43:15and

43:16he's

43:16famously

43:17abandoned

43:17all

43:18the

43:18pledges

43:19on

43:19which

43:19she

43:19won

43:19the

43:19Labour

43:20Party

43:20leadership

43:20in

43:212020

43:21so

43:22he

43:22has

43:23created

43:23that

43:24space

43:24and

43:26millions

43:26of

43:26people

43:27in

43:27this

43:27country

43:27are

43:27frustrated

43:28about

43:28the

43:29state

43:29of

43:29the

43:29country

43:30about

43:30how

43:30it's

43:30being

43:31run

43:32that

43:32has

43:33led

43:33to

43:33the

43:33Tory

43:34vote

43:34collapsing

43:37towards

43:37reform

43:38and

43:39there's

43:40similar

43:40huge

43:41numbers

43:41of

43:42people

43:42who

43:42regard

43:42themselves

43:43as

43:43progressive

43:43and

43:43on

43:44the

43:44left

43:44looking

43:44for

43:44something

43:45different

43:45that's

43:45right

43:45he's

43:46used

43:47hasn't

43:47he

43:47Jeremy

43:47Corbyn

43:48by

43:48chucking

43:49him

43:49out

43:49of

43:49the

43:49party

43:50to

43:50show

43:50visibly

43:51that

43:52his

43:52party

43:53Labour

43:53has

43:53changed

43:54and

43:54leaves

43:55him

43:55homeless

43:56now

43:56you reported

43:56this week

43:57in the

43:57Morning

43:58Star

43:58discussions

43:59about

43:59launching

44:00a

44:00party

44:00have

44:00been

44:00going

44:01on

44:01for

44:01months

44:02you

44:02say

44:02it

44:03would

44:03have

44:03at

44:04its

44:04parliamentary

44:04core

44:05Corbyn

44:05and

44:06the

44:06four

44:06pro-Gaza

44:07independent

44:08MPs

44:09elected

44:09last

44:09year

44:10that's

44:10right

44:11I mean

44:11discussions

44:12have been

44:12going on

44:12for

44:13a long

44:14time

44:14I mean

44:15since

44:16as I

44:16say

44:16Keir

44:16Starmer

44:17kicked

44:17Jeremy

44:18Corbyn

44:18out

44:18of

44:19the

44:19Labour

44:19Party

44:19they

44:20were

44:20sort

44:21of

44:21turbo

44:21charged

44:22by

44:22his

44:23response

44:23to

44:23the

44:24crisis

44:24in

44:24Gaza

44:25where

44:26he

44:26condoned

44:27Israel

44:28cutting

44:29off

44:29supplies

44:30of

44:30food

44:30and

44:30water

44:30and

44:31that

44:31deeply

44:32alienated

44:33LBC

44:33interview

44:34wasn't

44:34it

44:34which I

44:36think

44:36he

44:36retracted

44:36after a

44:37while

44:37took him

44:38nine days

44:38and by

44:39that point

44:39the damage

44:40was done

44:40if a week

44:40is a long

44:41time in

44:41politics

44:41so he

44:46then

44:47turbocharged

44:48that

44:48opposition

44:49there wasn't

44:50time for it

44:50to coalesce

44:51in any

44:51particular

44:52form

44:52before the

44:53general

44:53election

44:54but

44:54of course

44:55Jeremy

44:55Corbyn

44:56got

44:56re-elected

44:57in

44:57Islington

44:58North

44:58against

45:00Labour

45:00for

45:02pro-Gaza

45:03independents

45:04got elected

45:05with them

45:05across the

45:05country

45:06including

45:07in towns

45:08like

45:08Blackburn

45:09and Dewsbury

45:09that were

45:10identified

45:10as a

45:11left-behind

45:12communities

45:13where

45:14elsewhere

45:14reform

45:15has been

45:15prospering

45:17others

45:17came very

45:17close

45:18remarkable

45:18woman

45:19called

45:19Leanne

45:19Mohammed

45:20in

45:21Ilford

45:21North

45:21came within

45:22500 votes

45:23of defeating

45:23West

45:23Streeting

45:24who I

45:24think

45:24would be

45:25toast

45:25if another

45:25election

45:26was held

45:27tomorrow

45:27since

45:29the

45:29general

45:29election

45:30of course

45:30these

45:30discussions

45:31have

45:31intensified

45:32as to

45:32what to

45:32do

45:33how to

45:33build

45:33on

45:34this

45:34and

45:34I

45:35have

45:35to

45:35say

45:35the

45:35Labour

45:36government

45:36has only

45:36made it

45:37easier

45:37in terms

45:38of

45:38the

45:38vote

45:39this week

45:41and benefits

45:41but

45:41let's

45:42stay

45:43focused

45:44on this

45:45idea

45:45does

45:46Jeremy

45:47Corbyn

45:47want to

45:48be a

45:48leader

45:48again

45:48he was

45:49badly

45:49burned

45:50through

45:50two

45:50elections

45:50well

45:51I

45:51don't

45:52want

45:52to

45:52be

45:53speaking

45:53for

45:53Jeremy

45:54I

45:54mean

45:54he

45:54held

45:56in

45:56enormous

45:57affection

45:57across

45:59the

45:59left

45:59he's

45:59by far

46:00the

46:00best

46:00known

46:01figure

46:01on

46:02the

46:02left

46:02in

46:02the

46:02country

46:03name

46:03recognition

46:04but at

46:05the same

46:05time

46:05he had

46:06that

46:06long

46:06experience

46:07of

46:07leadership

46:08which

46:09would

46:09have

46:09been

46:09bruising

46:10for

46:10anyone

46:12and in

46:14the end

46:14I mean

46:15you get

46:16to the

46:16point

46:17where you

46:17also

46:17have

46:17to

46:18consider

46:18a

46:18new

46:18generation

46:19new

46:20people

46:20coming

46:20through

46:20you

46:21did

46:21though

46:22say

46:22a

46:22rally

46:23in

46:23Liverpool

46:23you

46:24reported

46:24this is

46:25Jeremy

46:25Corbyn

46:26word

46:26I

46:26am

46:26determined

46:27there

46:27will

46:27be

46:27in

46:28a

46:28short

46:28time

46:29a

46:29strong

46:30alternative

46:30democratic

46:31socialist

46:31left-wing

46:32voice

46:32that

46:33brings

46:33people

46:33together

46:34so he's

46:35yeah

46:35he

46:35he is

46:37up for

46:37it

46:37he's

46:38made

46:38that

46:38clear

46:38publicly

46:39now

46:39I

46:40quoted

46:40the

46:41Liverpool

46:41example

46:41he's

46:41made

46:42similar

46:42remarks

46:42in

46:43other

46:43places

46:44was that

46:44recently

46:45what was that

46:45rally in

46:46Liverpool

46:46oh

46:46three weeks

46:47ago

46:48now

46:48so it

46:49is

46:49recently

46:50I

46:51think

46:51his

46:52support

46:53for the

46:53idea

46:54has

46:55hardened

46:55up

46:56as

46:56I

46:57say

46:57he

46:57has

46:58to

46:58speak

46:59for

46:59himself

46:59but

46:59whether

47:00he is

47:00speaking

47:00for

47:00himself

47:00he's

47:01saying

47:01he thinks

47:01the

47:01time

47:01has

47:02come

47:02what

47:03could

47:03it

47:04be

47:04called

47:04there

47:04were

47:04two

47:05ideas

47:05the

47:05collective

47:06I

47:06think

47:06was

47:06one

47:06idea

47:07and

47:07a

47:08different

47:08idea

47:08well

47:09different

47:09names

47:10have

47:10been

47:10banded

47:10around

47:11arise

47:13was

47:13one

47:13that

47:13was

47:14mentioned

47:14recently

47:15I

47:16don't

47:16think

47:16there's

47:16been

47:16any

47:17conclusion

47:18to

47:18that

47:18and

47:19also

47:19if

47:19you

47:20are

47:20setting

47:20up

47:20a

47:20new

47:21party

47:21you

47:22need

47:22to

47:22create

47:23the

47:23space

47:23for

47:24the

47:24members

47:25to

47:25make

47:27decisions

47:28like that

47:28in the

47:28end

47:28one

47:29difference

47:29definitely

47:30will

47:30be

47:30with

47:31reform

47:31which

47:32I

47:32don't

47:32know

47:32what

47:32the

47:32position

47:32is

47:32now

47:33but

47:33for

47:33a

47:33long

47:33time

47:33it

47:33was

47:34actually

47:34owned

47:34by

47:35Nigel

47:35Farage

47:36any

47:37new

47:38party

47:39of the

47:39left

47:39will

47:39not

47:39be

47:40owned

47:40by

47:40Jeremy

47:41Corbyn

47:41or

47:41anyone

47:42else

47:42that's

47:43far

47:43too

47:43capitalist

47:44the

47:45reason

47:45why

47:46he

47:46owned

47:46there

47:46were

47:4615

47:47shares

47:47in

47:47reform

47:48UK

47:48when

47:49it

47:49started

47:49he

47:49was

47:49sick

47:50of

47:50people

47:50courting

47:51trouble

47:52in

47:52the

47:52party

47:52I

47:52own

47:53the

47:53bloody

47:53thing

47:53I

47:54think

47:54it's

47:54what

47:54he

47:54thought

47:54because

47:55that's

47:55completely

47:55inappropriate

47:56when you get a party with the scale of it now

47:58and we're told and we think it's changed

48:00but you're

48:01well I'm not interested in politicising with reform

48:04but by proxy

48:04my point is that any new party of the left would have to be a

48:08democratic

48:09could be called momentum

48:09I mean that's a good name

48:11is that part of Labour now or is it not part of Labour

48:13I think that's still part of Labour that is still

48:15fighting the good fight within the Labour party

48:17and they will have been encouraged

48:19momentum and the left of the Labour party

48:20by the scale of the resistance

48:22which has effectively gutted

48:24Keir Starmer's welfare bill

48:26so the other MPs in it is Zara Sultana

48:29John McDonnell

48:30suspended Labour MP

48:31well

48:32those two and Apsana Begum

48:35are the three

48:35I mean seven were suspended for

48:38three came back

48:39for voting against a two child benefit cap

48:41four had the whip reinstated

48:43I see no sign of the Labour whips moving to reinstate

48:47the other three

48:48Zara, Apsana and John McDonnell

48:50of course their own positions

48:53well I mean they will be considering it

48:55you know if a new party is formed

48:57they will be considering it

48:58but again

48:59they have to speak

49:00for themselves

49:02yes

49:03wait a minute

49:03if you add in those three to the

49:05you know you're getting towards as big as the SNP grouping

49:07well yes

49:08if and that's a very big if

49:09if all three were added in

49:11add to the existing five

49:13yes it would be very nearly as big as the SNP

49:15bigger than reform

49:16bigger than the Greens

49:18bigger than Plaid

49:20and yeah bigger than Sinn Fé

49:23not that they show up

49:24I guess

49:24well indeed they don't

49:26the technical idea though in Parliament

49:28is if you form a grouping with a name

49:29you then get

49:30your share of questions

49:32in parliamentary questions

49:33once every six weeks or so

49:34so you allow the group there

49:37to raise their issues

49:38on the national stage

49:39more easily than being individuals

49:41so collectively

49:42you're more powerful individually

49:43no definitely

49:44the parliamentary procedures

49:45reward coming together in a group

49:47rather than being

49:48simply independents

49:50of course

49:50the four independents

49:52and Jeremy himself

49:53the five

49:54were elected as independents

49:56so that you know

49:57so it's a sort of

49:58it's a

49:58it's a step to then say

50:00back to your constituents

50:02I'm now going forward

50:04into a new

50:04a new party

50:06but if you do

50:07there are rewards

50:08in terms of parliamentary procedure

50:10on the funding

50:12I'm not so sure

50:13because that's judged

50:14on the time of the election

50:16the general election

50:17the pollic money

50:18the short money

50:18short money

50:19yes

50:19so I think that's not

50:20so much it

50:20but in my opinion

50:22if a new party

50:24is

50:25it's declared of the left

50:27I think that

50:2810% of the vote

50:29would be a floor

50:30not a ceiling

50:31and probably

50:33you'll get

50:33100,000 people

50:34signing up as paying members

50:36in short order

50:37100,000 members

50:38and where can they get

50:39in the polls

50:40maybe after two years

50:41which let's imagine

50:41let's scope it out

50:42Jeremy Corbyn leading a party

50:44starting now

50:45where would you be

50:46in two years time

50:46it could be

50:47going up above 10%

50:49you think

50:49oh definitely

50:50it could definitely

50:51go up above

50:5210%

50:53I wouldn't

50:54I wouldn't put a ceiling

50:55on it

50:55but what I

50:56what I would say

50:57is it changes

50:58the calculation

50:59completely

51:01for the Labour Party

51:02which for the

51:03ever since

51:04Starmer became leader

51:05and definitely

51:05since they won

51:06the general election

51:07it has been focused

51:08on a threat

51:09from reform

51:11and has therefore

51:12that has dictated

51:13Labour policy

51:15or everything

51:15from migration

51:16to arms spending

51:19and so on

51:20I think

51:21I think the evidence

51:22is actually

51:23very very few

51:24people saying

51:25they were intending

51:26to vote reform

51:27or Tory

51:28are saying

51:29they might consider

51:30shifting to Labour

51:30now you have

51:32this very large

51:33body of opinion

51:35some of which

51:36is already moving

51:37to the Greens

51:38a few of which

51:38may move

51:39to the Liberal Democrats

51:40if there was

51:41a party of the left

51:42as well

51:42a Democratic Socialist

51:44Party

51:44occupying that space

51:46I think the Labour Party

51:47is in cataclysmic

51:49trouble

51:50as the Tories are

51:51the Tories are having

51:52to look at the reform

51:52in one direction

51:53and the Liberal Democrats

51:54in the other

51:55Labour would have

51:56to be looking

51:56to Tories

51:58and reform here

51:59and the left

52:01and Greens

52:02there

52:02and that's

52:03shortness

52:04so just in numbers

52:04it could take

52:05could halve

52:06their poll position

52:07well the thing is

52:09Chris

52:09I think if you look

52:10at we've got

52:11Tory, Labour

52:12reform, Lib Dem

52:13and then left

52:14stroke green

52:15so that's five

52:16party politics

52:17and in terms

52:18of parliamentary seats

52:19if we move away

52:20from share of the vote

52:21for a second

52:22almost anything

52:23can happen

52:23five party politics

52:25in England

52:25six in Scotland

52:26and Wales

52:27if you add in

52:27the nationalists

52:28that have big support

52:29in those two countries

52:29yes

52:30you know

52:32so really

52:34you'd be in a situation

52:35where in a number

52:36of, any

52:36a large number

52:37of constituencies

52:38an MP could get

52:39elected with about

52:4030% of the vote

52:41in that

52:41and that

52:42you know

52:43all bets are off

52:44there

52:44and it's something

52:45well

52:46you know

52:46when I started out

52:47it was still

52:48two and a bit

52:49party politics

52:50now we're talking

52:51about five party politics

52:52so Labour could drop

52:53to maybe 13%

52:55from 23

52:56I mean I don't know

52:57probably to go down

52:59to that level

53:00would be unlikely

53:01you know

53:02but I think

53:03it would represent

53:04an existential crisis

53:06for the Labour Party

53:06goodness gracious

53:07and that's why

53:08the Greens

53:09I think

53:10we discussed it

53:10are the Greens

53:11looking at

53:11electing a kind

53:12of Jeremy Corbyn

53:13figure

53:13to run that party

53:14there's a bit

53:15of conflict

53:15in the party

53:16it seems

53:16I'm not very good

53:17on my Green politics

53:17which is some

53:18of the older Green

53:19leaders

53:20and then this new

53:21these new

53:22sort of left of centre

53:23of Corbynist

53:24type candidates

53:25well that's how

53:26Zach Polanski

53:26is pitching himself

53:27for the leadership

53:28of the Greens

53:29I think we know

53:29at the beginning

53:30of September

53:30how that election

53:32turns out

53:33I think there's

53:34no question

53:34that some of those

53:36people that voted

53:36for Labour

53:37in 2017

53:38and to a lesser

53:39extent in 2019

53:40under Corbyn's

53:41leadership

53:41have now moved

53:43to supporting

53:43the Greens

53:44places like Bristol

53:47Brighton

53:48it's more long-standing

53:49yes

53:49parts of the big cities

53:51are shifting

53:52to voting

53:53voting on the Greens

53:55that's happening

53:56already

53:57so Andrew Murray

53:58just fine

53:58easy question

53:59will it happen

54:00what are the odds

54:02are the odds

54:03on

54:04is it

54:04I would say

54:05yes absolutely

54:06it will happen

54:0767%

54:08I would say

54:10within

54:11probably within

54:13the next

54:13three or four months

54:15wow

54:17get ready folks

54:18that's going to be

54:19an extraordinary moment

54:20a reform

54:21of the left

54:21a new party

54:22led by Jeremy Corbyn

54:24Keir Starmer's problems

54:25might be getting

54:26more complicated

54:26thank you Andrew Murray

54:28for joining me today

54:29on Chopper's

54:29political podcast

54:30great to see you again

54:31and thanks for coming on

54:33my pleasure Chris

54:34thank you

54:35and thanks to my

54:35previous guests

54:36Joe Twyman

54:36and Tom Harwood

54:37I tweet at

54:38Christopher Hope

54:38on X

54:39email me

54:40chopper

54:40at gbnews.uk

54:42what's your Twitter handle

54:43Andrew

54:43I don't really tweet

54:45that's very sensible

54:48if you enjoyed this show

54:49please do tell your friends

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54:57thanks to the great team

54:58of GB News colleagues

54:59behind the podcast

55:00Mick Booker and Jeff Marsh

55:01back at Paddington headquarters

55:03and the podcast

55:04Busy Worker Bees

55:05in the Summer

55:06Collecting Pollen

55:07Working Very Hard

55:08Rebecca Nunes

55:09and George McMillan

55:10George is chucking away

55:11behind the camera

55:12most importantly all

55:13again thank you for listening

55:14if you want more

55:15Chopper in your life

55:16and Andrew doesn't

55:17does

55:17or maybe doesn't

55:18I think he does

55:19catch you during the week

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55:24and do go to our website

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55:27until next time

55:28it's me and Andrew Murray

55:29cheerio

55:30welcome to know nhéééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééé ééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééééé

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