Thailand: How high is the risk of a coup?

DW (English)

With Paetongtarn, the third Shinawatra prime minister has been suspended. Will she be removed from power like her father Thaksin and aunt Yingluck? And if history is any guide, is another coup coming in Thailand?

Transcript

00:00For many in Thailand, the scenes of anti-government protests on June 28

00:07are a reminiscence of what happened nearly two decades ago.

00:11Many of the leading figures with familiar faces, including this man, Sonti Limtonggun.

00:18In 2006, he helped oust then-Prime Minister Thaksin Chinawad in a military coup.

00:25Sonti led the royalist political movement known as the Yellow Shirts,

00:30the color that symbolizes loyalty to the Thai monarchy.

00:34Almost 20 years later, he is back on the protest stage.

00:38This time around, against Thaksin's daughter, Pe Thong Tan, who is known by her nickname Ung Ying.

00:49Same chance, different Chinawad in power.

00:52This is what happened nearly two decades ago.

00:55Thaksin, open! Thaksin, open!

00:58And again, about a decade later.

01:01This time against another Chinawad Prime Minister, Yingluck.

01:05She is Thaksin's sister and Pe Thong Tan's aunt.

01:08I don't want to see the misuse of this law or the majesty.

01:13Thaksin, open! Yingluck, open!

01:17Yingluck was thrown out of office just days before her government was ousted in a coup.

01:23Thai politics seems to repeat itself without taking a real step forward.

01:29Election, protest, coup.

01:33Election, protest, coup.

01:38Election, protest, coup?

01:41Or would it be different this time?

01:43Or would it be different this time?

01:44I think they still don't have to do this.

01:45The last two decades, it won't happen.

01:47The last six decades, it won't happen.

01:49The last two decades, it won't happen.

01:51The other thing is, we have to use the time to build up the people.

01:54The

02:21would you like to contribute to theiciones for the Galaxian Practical практически?

02:24One, the first

02:28which they used to use

02:30by livro journeys

02:33,

02:34the ones who send people free

02:35by law

02:40before expanding their life

02:43for example,

02:46the ones who stroke them

02:48I can't see it.

02:49I can't see it.

02:50I can't see it.

02:51I can't see it.

02:52I can't see it.

02:56On July 1st, the Constitutional Court suspended Paetong Tan from Prime Ministerial Duties

03:02after accepting a petition from Senators seeking her removal.

03:18They were the same.

03:19They were the same.

03:20They were the same.

03:21They were the same.

03:22I should have had a chance.

03:23But I have been there for about 15 days.

03:26I am doing the same.

03:28The reason I am doing that just because I am telling you the actual truth is about the fact that...

03:35what the video is about.

03:37This is the same.

03:38They can't do the same.

03:40The same.

03:42The same.

03:43It's the same.

03:45How did we get to this point?

04:13It started with a border clash between Thailand and Cambodia in late May.

04:20At the root is a long-standing dispute over the more than 800-kilometer-long border,

04:26which stems from the French colonial occupation of Indochina.

04:32It all came to a head when Pei Tongtan was criticized for allegedly kowtowing

04:37to Cambodia's former leader, Hun Sen, in a leaked phone call with him.

04:43The people of the Thai people who have heard of Khoi Nhi,

04:50who have heard of Khoi Nhi,

04:52who have heard of Khoi Nhi,

04:53who have heard of Khoi Nhi.

04:55In previous political crises,

05:03ultranaturalist protest groups also branded Thaksin and Yingluck as ineffective leaders.

05:09Thaksin was accused of corruption and abuse of power.

05:13Yingluck was accused of being Thaksin's puppet.

05:16Both times, the army pledged to restore order to prevent total political destabilization.

05:23Thailand is no stranger to coups.

05:26Since 1932, when the country became a constitutional monarchy,

05:31Thailand has gone through at least a dozen coups,

05:34way more if you also count unsuccessful attempts.

05:39When protests become unmanageable,

05:42the military has often used those scenarios as a reason to intervene.

05:47The military has not been created before.

05:49But if it came out after this,

05:51I don't think that the military will be heard.

05:54Given that we have noticed the problem of the military

05:56that is now in the past.

05:58The military has gone through the last part,

06:00in the past,

06:01the military's military has not been created.

06:03The military has no longer been created.

06:06This is what happened last time.

06:22Just a few days before the coup in 2014, then Army Chief Prayuth Jan Osha imposed martial

06:29law.

06:32He said he had to act because of spiraling political tensions after months of deadly anti-government

06:40protests.

06:41The Army was adamant this was not a coup.

06:45Two days later, however, Yingluck's government was toppled.

06:55Prayuth remained in power for nearly a decade.

06:59A victory to the song he wrote shortly after the coup.

07:02The widely mocked lyrics go,

07:04We will keep our promise.

07:06Just give us some time.

07:08Prayuth retired from politics in 2023.

07:12That year, Thailand held its most recent general election, which saw Chinawatt-linked party,

07:19Pure Thai, return to power.

07:24After several tweets and turns, a third Chinawatt, Pha Thong Thanh, eventually became Thailand's

07:30prime minister.

07:31She is the latest member of her family to face anti-government protest and the removal

07:37from power.

07:38The big question is, will history repeat itself?

07:42Remember this guy, the Yellow Shirt leader?

08:05At the June 28th protest, he denied calling for a coup.

08:10But he did say, if a coup happens, so be it.

08:14If the political crisis can't be solved, but I have only one request.

08:19Don't bring another general to run the country.

08:22Let the people be part of the solution.

08:24We should try to the administration of the country by the East Coast.

08:28We should try to design an agenda for the country by the United States.

08:31For the people who are living in the country,

08:33the country will be left behind.

08:34The same way, the government will turn back to the international law.

08:37So we can see that the government will turn back to the country

08:42as the leaders of the country,

08:45which can't be addressed to the country's national and the world's elections,

08:48to make the changes to the country's climate change.

08:52Analyst DW spoke to say the best way forward is for the government to be dissolved.

08:59That would lead to a snap election, where the people decide their future.

09:11But even in that scenario, would the people's choice be respected?

09:15In the last election, the now defunct Move Forward won the most seats.

09:23Despite the public support, the party leader, Pita Limjarendrat,

09:28was blocked from taking the top job by the Junta-appointed Senate.

09:52The current Senate no longer has such power.

09:58But senators still appoint judges to the Constitutional Court,

10:04Thailand's most powerful judicial body, would just suspend the Patong Tan.

10:10And in the last few years alone, the top court has dissolved the progressive Future Forward Party,

10:16disband the Future Forward successor, Move Forward.

10:20Remove Patong Tan's predecessor, Seta Thovisin.

10:23Could Patong Tan be next?

10:26Could Patong Tan be next?

10:41Thank you very much.

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