At a hearing of the Helsinki Commission on Thursday, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) spoke to RAND Corporation Defense Researcher Michael Cecire about the threat of Russia to NATO states
00:00Well, thank you very much, Mr. Chairman, and one of the real high spots about the NATO summit for me was seeing Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, and seeing her joy at finally having her husband released.
00:14You're here. You're here.
00:15I wonder, Ms. Dubikova, if you think there was any particular significance to Lukashenko releasing those prisoners, and my understanding, based on what we've been able to determine, is that there was nothing promised to him in that prisoner release except for a public presentation with the prisoners, so can you tell us anything about that and what you think it means?
00:46Again, as I said in my opening remarks, I'm really grateful to the United States and to President Donald Trump for this leadership. I think it's really important, and it saves lives, as we see.
00:57And that also gave a lot of hope to the movement, to the democratic movement of Belarus.
01:03Svetlana Tikhanovskaya is now with Sergei Tikhanovsky in Poland, and they're actually meeting with President Duda, and later with Minister Radosov-Sikorsky, who really supported Sergei while he was in prison.
01:15And then they actually have a rally when people would appear and would protest, so I think that's also significant that people can unite once again.
01:22That became such a hopeful and emotional moment for everyone.
01:26When it comes to concessions and what Alexander Lukashenko might have got from it, of course, we don't have these details at this point,
01:32and I think he's so desperate to get out of isolation that this meeting, this handshake and these hugs that he was presented with, that was enough.
01:43The question is what he would need next to release more prisoners.
01:48And I believe that pressure here is important because that's, again, the tool and leverage over Lukashenko.
01:54He wants sanctions to be lifted, and that's something where we can negotiate with him regarding this, so that's crucial.
02:02And it's also important not to legitimize Lukashenko before, of course, he gives concessions, and all political prisoners are released, and repression stops.
02:12I certainly agree with that.
02:16There was a great deal of interest at the summit with all the people, players that we met with,
02:21about the status of the Graham-Blumenthal sanctions legislation and the importance of passing that to put pressure on Russia.
02:32Can each of you speak to whether you think that would be important for us to do and whether that might help to move Russia?
02:42Generally, we don't comment on ongoing legislation, but I will say that any pressure on the Russian regime, on President Putin and his oligarchs and cronies,
03:01is generally positive for a couple of reasons.
03:04One, for demonstrating and exercising leverage and the ability for the United States to use that leverage in service of a particular end.
03:17But second, I think it's also a real symbol of the United States resolve,
03:22that the United States continues to be very concerned about this, that we're united,
03:30and that there are policies that are in place, and there are efforts being made to do something about that.
03:38And I think that sends a very powerful signal.
03:40So, generally speaking, targeted sanctions that tries to limit or curtail the ability of an autocratic elite.
03:57Yeah, maybe I should be clear about what's in this bill.
03:59This is secondary sanctions on those countries who would do business with them as well.
04:04Yeah, so I was leading that threat, absolutely.
04:05So, generally speaking, sanctions do serve as a specific important instrument of leverage.
04:12So, there's literature on targeted sanctions, and then there's a lot of literature on secondary sanctions.
04:20These work as mechanisms of curtailing the ability of given countries, such as Russia,
04:27to basically proceed with whatever the game plan is.
04:29And so, it offers the United States and its allies a toolkit that could be utilized against Putin's regime.
04:38It's obviously, it's not a silver bullet, but...
04:41No, I understand that.
04:42Of course.
04:43But in of itself, it does offer us an important mechanism of leverage in curtailing some of their capabilities.
04:51Do you agree with that?
04:52I certainly agree that this is important.
04:54Belarus became a loophole for Russia.
04:57Russia is avoiding sanctions thanks to Belarus, thanks to the regime.
05:03And Belarus is also collaborating a lot now with China and Iran.
05:08There was even a project to build a production site for Iranian drones in Belarus.
05:14So, that's one of the examples how this collaboration looks like.
05:18China has become the second trade partner of Belarus.
05:21That's now around 10% of trade that goes to China, but that's still significant because, again, that's the second trade partner.
05:31And, of course, when it comes to banks, Russia is also avoiding sanctions via Belarus through banks.
05:38So, I think all of this would be really important to tackle these loopholes because what the regime is striving on is this kind of loopholes where it can still do their businesses.
05:50And there have been also numerous examples of this.
05:54Mr. Chairman, can I raise one other issue?
05:56Yes, ma'am.
05:58Last week in the Foreign Relations Committee, we had several experts testifying in advance of the NATO summit.
06:06It was on NATO.
06:07And they both made a point that I think is sometimes overlooked, and that is two points, actually.
06:14One is that Russia is militarizing in a way that goes beyond their capability or their capacity and need to address the war in Ukraine.
06:26And they are doing it with a very deliberate intent to, after Ukraine, attack another NATO country.
06:34The second point they made was that it is not in America or Europe's interest to lose Ukraine as an ally because they have the biggest army in Europe.
06:50They have the most technologically equipped fighting force in Europe.
06:55And to allow that army and that capacity to go into the Russian orbit would be a huge detriment both to the NATO alliance and to the United States.
07:07Again, is that something that you all would say is an analysis that you could agree with?
07:13Thank you, Senator Shaheen.
07:16I absolutely agree with that.
07:18I think it's very clear that Russia, although it has referred to its war footing as partial mobilization,
07:25that by any kind of conventional measure that it is a total war footing.
07:30The mobilization of vast sectors of the economy and the impressing of hundreds of thousands of people into military service every year
07:41and also other means of producing the materiel and the means of war making, not just on Ukraine, but broader aggression in Europe.
07:52I think there's a number of assessments that have been made by our allies in Europe, including intelligence chiefs,
07:58saying that they believe that Russia's rather impressive, I should say, powers of regeneration
08:03would likely be able to be used against a NATO state within five to ten years.
08:10And so that's something I think we all have to be thinking about when we're looking at the cost of a bad piece,
08:16because what we have in Ukraine is a country that has shown itself to be battle-tested, militarily potent,
08:23and a society that is resilient and strong and has withstood, I think, something that is unimaginable,
08:31and yet has, in many cases, bested the Russians with meager support when it comes down to it from the world.
08:40So in that case, in that sense, I think that there's a really strong case to want to work with the Ukrainians
08:48and to try and do everything we can to ensure that Russian aggression does not spread elsewhere in Europe.
08:54Thank you. I know I'm out of time. Thank you very much, Mr. Chair.
