- 6/24/2025
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00:00The early odds for 2025-26 around the National Basketball Association are out.
00:06NBA Finals odds to win a championship and conference odds, of course,
00:11to win the East and the West and be in those spots to hoist a Larry O'Brien trophy.
00:16So, too, are the MVP odds as well.
00:19Early for next year in DRS, we will see two very familiar names at the top.
00:24Nicola Jokic, who has won three MVP awards now in the last five seasons,
00:29and Shea Gilgis-Alexander, are reigning NBA MVP.
00:33Jokic, a slightly better number, plus 220, 40 cents in front of SGA.
00:39Let's start right here, right now.
00:41Is it already a two-player race for the MVP hardware next season?
00:46No, I think it's a three-player race.
00:47I don't think anybody else can either get into that race.
00:50You take a look at Nicola Jokic, Shea Gilgis-Alexander,
00:52but I do throw Luka Doncic in there because he's now in Los Angeles.
00:55The pedestal goes higher.
00:56The primetime games go higher.
00:58The elevation of playing with LeBron James and being on social media every single day go higher.
01:02And also, I understand the motivation where you don't want to say like you're sitting there in Dallas, right?
01:07It's like, hey, I'm not in a big market.
01:08He was in a big market, comfortable in that environment, and then goes out to L.A.
01:12And you need to win at a high level in Los Angeles.
01:14There's one thing, hey, Dallas, you get to an NBA Finals, that's fantastic.
01:17But in Los Angeles, it's championships or Boston.
01:19LeBron James understands that knowing that he would like to rack up one or two more before he gets out of town.
01:24And Luka is going to be a big reason why that could possibly happen.
01:27So if Luka comes back focused and in shape, like, you know what?
01:30I'm in Los Angeles.
01:31I can't hide now.
01:32I can't even go through my normal off-season routine, which he's a great basketball player doing that anyway.
01:37I think he has the extra motivation coming in and the extra limelight being in Los Angeles where I like that $750 price.
01:43Am I saying he's going to win it?
01:44Not necessarily.
01:45But if we do look at SGA and Nikola Jokic, you know they're going to battle for it.
01:49But I do think Luka Doncic, rightfully so, will be in that equation.
01:53Let me just add this, too.
01:53It's like, well, Donnie, why don't you just throw in Giannis?
01:55I just think sometimes, like, the fatigue, like, catches Jokic.
01:59But Jokic's numbers are so outstanding with a team that we expect to be really good next year again.
02:03We look at Giannis Antetokounmpo.
02:05Like, what does he have to do?
02:0638, 20, and 10 every single night to get noticed in Milwaukee?
02:10He's a great player and deserves to be in the MVP race.
02:13I just don't think he can win it because the expectations are, ah, 24, 12, and 8.
02:18Yeah, he's just not doing it.
02:19Like, what?
02:20That's an unbelievable night.
02:21But we expect so much more to Giannis and a team that I don't think is going to fulfill high expectations next year.
02:27And, Donnie, that might be the case, right?
02:29Posting 38, 20, and 10, we're being a little bit exaggeratory here.
02:32But posting those type of numbers for Milwaukee even to be a top four seed in the Eastern Conference might be what is necessary next year.
02:40It also feels funny looking at Luka Doncic playing alongside LeBron James and saying anybody playing with LeBron, even now two decades into his NBA career at the age of 40 plus, and say that they have a better chance of winning an MVP on a team with LeBron James than they did as the superstar basically by themselves at a former organization.
03:01You would ultimately think LeBron steals some shine even at this stage of his NBA tenure.
03:07I kind of agree with you, though, D.R.S.
03:08The expectations in Los Angeles for this historic franchise in the purple and gold, if they are realized and actualized, that's where Luka Doncic's number makes a lot of sense to me at plus 750.
03:22And there is fatigue for Nikola Jokic.
03:25And we look at a guy that was top three in every category this year, points, rebounds, assists, who averaged a triple-double.
03:33And we're like, yeah, what else, dude?
03:34You've been doing that for the last five years now.
03:37But the funny thing is, it's almost like when he doesn't win the award one year, some of that motor fatigue weighs off.
03:44And you're like, ah, this guy's pretty darn good.
03:46So is it going to be Nikola Jokic who lost the MVP award to Joel Embiid now two years ago, or three years ago, won the award then two years ago, now lost at the SGA.
03:57This year, he gets back winning the hardware for a fourth time in a six-year window in 2025-26.
04:04Last year, I didn't like the price on Nikola Jokic to bet in the preseason in the summer.
04:08If you wanted to make the argument this time around D.R.S., I do think it's a worthy one.
04:13And by the way, you know what's interesting, too, is we talk about voter fatigue.
04:16Are people already out on SGA?
04:18A great player, great family man.
04:20You know, you see the interviews, and it just feels like that was the trashiest MVP we've ever seen.
04:25And I don't like that basketball team.
04:26It's like, well, Shea Gilgis-Alexander puts up the same statistics he did this previous year.
04:31Oklahoma City's the number one seed.
04:32They're going to be like having the binoculars out.
04:34Like, hey, that was good, but who's next in line?
04:37Like, Nikola Jokic is so good and so in your face.
04:39It's like, dude, I know like Embiid was close to him there.
04:42And I actually agreed Embiid should have been the MVP.
04:44But we know Embiid got an extra couple votes there because he hadn't won it before and Jokic won it.
04:49Now, SGA was like, look, this is an unbelievable season.
04:52We don't know if OKC is ever going to be the number one seed again.
04:54He's having a great season on par with Nikola Jokic.
04:56Let's just give it to him.
04:58And now I think we look at it like, well, do you want to go back to Jokic?
05:00He's got a couple of them.
05:01SGA, we're already done with that.
05:03Oh, Luka, shiny toy in LA, number two overall seed behind OKC, dropping 30 points a game.
05:08Like, he gets the benefit.
05:09We shouldn't have – it should be done, like, almost like the old BCS era.
05:13Like, feed the statistics through the machine, press the button, and whoever comes out unbiased, that's who the MVP –
05:19but we're humans.
05:19We don't like to do that, and we'd get angry at that, even if it always spit out.
05:23Nikola Jokic is the most proficient player because of what he does on offense with the assist rebounds
05:27and certainly the correlation to the team with user rate.
05:29But Luka Doncic is going to get that boost next year.
05:32Like, we want to give it to Luka.
05:34It's finally his year.
05:35He hasn't had one.
05:36Is he on an even playing pace with SGA?
05:38Jokic, he gets the benefit.
05:39He just gets to stay healthy, and the Lakers have to be good, which, why?
05:42That should be the expectations anyway.
05:45Anthony Edwards' star continues to rise around the NBA.
05:48He's 13-1.
05:50Victor Wemenyama also at 13-1.
05:52If health is there and the Spurs are good,
05:54Wemenyama should be in consideration as well.
05:57But I kind of agree, DRS, with that tier of three.
06:00First, a tier of two based on pedigree,
06:02and then if it's not based on fatigue or matching stats,
06:06Luka Doncic at plus 750 makes a ton of sense.
06:11All right, let's talk about some future MVP consideration
06:14or maybe some future NBA stars in the 2025 NBA draft.
06:19Round number one tomorrow night in Brooklyn,
06:21and Luka's former team somehow, someway got rewarded
06:25with the number one pick in the NBA draft lottery
06:28and thus winning the Cooper flag sweepstakes.
06:31His coronation tomorrow night as the number one pick
06:34is not a guess, DRS.
06:36It is not even, ooh, that's likely to happen,
06:38but maybe, no, it's going to happen.
06:40Minus 100,000 for Cooper flag to be that first overall selection
06:44to the Dallas Mavericks.
06:46The San Antonio Spurs pick second.
06:48Minus 9,000 for Dylan Harper.
06:50Word of that basically in the books as well.
06:53B.J. Edgecombe, minus 280 to go third overall.
06:57That's where the Philadelphia 76ers select.
07:00And then after the top three,
07:02there is not minus money anywhere else, DRS,
07:04in the rest of the top 10.
07:06And we have a market.
07:08We have betting odds available for those first 10 picks
07:11in the 2025 NBA draft early on in the lottery.
07:16So let's start with the draft conversation.
07:19DRS, when you look at one and two, that's solidified.
07:22What happens after?
07:24You know, here's what I'd like, too, to make a point as well.
07:27Like, the NBA sometimes, you know, getting in the background,
07:30conspiracy theory.
07:31Love the fact that Cooper flag goes to Dallas.
07:33That team's supposed to be good.
07:34He's going to get in with the Gould organization right away.
07:35We're going to watch him and not have him wallow away
07:38in New Orleans Pelicans or the Charlotte Hornets.
07:40Same thing with Dylan Harper.
07:41You have one of the more fun, up-and-coming basketball teams
07:44in the San Antonio Spurs, get the number two pick right away,
07:46going to get a guy that should have an impact in that lineup.
07:49And say what you want against the Philadelphia 76ers.
07:51They have stars, and you have a chance to add a guy
07:53that's going to be able to go day number one
07:55and be an impact player.
07:56I love the way that sets up where it's like,
07:58hey, flag goes to Washington.
08:00Awesome.
08:00In five years, nobody will ever hear from that guy again,
08:02and maybe he forces his way out and makes some big money
08:04in a big city and can actually win some championships.
08:06But I do believe that third spot is interesting
08:08because the Sixers understand one thing.
08:10Like, you have a veteran locker room.
08:12If a kid comes in like Ace Bailey and hearing the parameters of,
08:16well, if he comes in for a workout,
08:17you better commit to him to number three.
08:19And they're saying, look, we really like him.
08:20We're probably going to pick him.
08:21But I can't say, like, I want him to work out.
08:23He's coming in.
08:24If we have some sort of handshake agreement,
08:25we're going to take him three no matter what happens here
08:27or who we like in the draft.
08:28But he probably was going to go three.
08:30But do you want that as a kid coming into your team
08:32going, like, he doesn't want to be here?
08:33Or Edgecombe, even if you got it close.
08:36Like, right, VJ Edgecombe as opposed to Ace Bailey.
08:38And VJ's like, man, I aced those interviews.
08:40Maybe they have a great workout,
08:41but this kid's going to fit right in on day number one
08:44as opposed to his agents talking about Ace Bailey going,
08:46we never wanted to be here.
08:48Do what you can.
08:48Skip practice here.
08:49Maybe force your way out.
08:51That's going to have a big edge.
08:52But Ace Bailey should be three.
08:53But he's dropping because he wants to drop.
08:56Maybe it is VJ Edgecombe.
08:57I don't think it's going to be Con Caniple.
08:58It's one of those two players to the Sixers at three.
09:01And right now, the favorite, of course, is going to be VJ
09:03because he wants to be a Philadelphia 76er.
09:06Ace Bailey maybe doesn't.
09:08Trey Johnson, a slightly better price even than Ace Bailey
09:11to go third overall, plus 444 Johnson, plus 464 Bailey.
09:16We'll talk the big storylines of the NBA draft next.
09:19Tomorrow night is the 2025 NBA draft
09:22inside the Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
09:25It starts around 8 p.m. Eastern time.
09:28It is round number one.
09:29Now the NBA draft for the second consecutive year
09:31split into a two-night event with round number two
09:34following on Thursday.
09:37DRS, we started to look at some of the big storylines
09:39that we'll be following on our NBA draft special,
09:42starting live right here on Sports Grid tomorrow evening,
09:457.30 p.m. Eastern time.
09:47Myself, the coach, James Young, JY,
09:50Kevin Walsh, and Tom Vecchio from our studios in New Jersey
09:53as well.
09:54We'll be all breaking down the draft for the entirety of night
09:57number one, round number one.
09:59Here are a couple of the main storylines for me
10:01that I think will be fascinating to follow
10:04both in the next 24 hours leading up to the draft
10:06and, of course, throughout round number one as well.
10:10It starts for me at the very top.
10:11Number one, Ace Bailey's draft stock slide.
10:15Slide might be too kind.
10:17Plummet could be another way to look at it.
10:19But yet the odds are really interesting here, DRS.
10:22Ace Bailey is not favored to go anywhere in the top five.
10:26He is not the favorite to be the first, second, third,
10:29fourth, or fifth overall pick.
10:30And yet his odds to be a top five selection
10:33now stronger today than they were even yesterday.
10:36And yesterday was also minus money, minus 185.
10:40Now it's minus 270.
10:42I'm not sure the odds track.
10:44One of those numbers somewhere, some way is wrong.
10:48So how long do you think Ace Bailey is going to wait DRS
10:52tomorrow night to hear his name called in the NBA draft?
10:55It's hard to say.
10:56And we're only one day away.
10:57Like, oh, you probably should have this nailed down.
10:59But I bet you we're going to get some information that comes out later today
11:02or early tomorrow.
11:03Like, hey, fences were mended here.
11:05And now he's fine with going to the Sixers or as high as he can possibly go.
11:09Because understand this.
11:10This is a business that loves upside and loves talent here, right?
11:14So Cooper Flagg is going number one to the Dallas Mavericks.
11:17What happens if the agent for Cooper Flagg goes, uh-uh, nope, no, we're not going to Dallas.
11:21You already got AD there.
11:22You got Kyrie Irving.
11:23This isn't his team.
11:24We want to go six or seven.
11:25You know what happens?
11:26He goes number one to Dallas, whether he likes it or not.
11:29And quite frankly, Dylan Harper doesn't have those same, like, we always thought he was
11:33going to go too.
11:33Ah, Dylan doesn't want to go to the Spurs.
11:35You know where he's going?
11:36To the Spurs, whether he likes it or not.
11:38So there are question marks on Ace Bailey and what his upside are.
11:41So talented, so raw at this point.
11:43But what he can be, like, it could be Tracy McGrady out there.
11:47He could be one of the better, you know, a young Kevin Durant.
11:49Like, we hear all of that stuff of what he can be.
11:51But the fact of the matter is, if he was a surefire, he'd be going number three no matter
11:55what he said to the Philadelphia 76ers.
11:58That's what I find interesting, Ben.
11:59And also, if it's not just the Sixers, like, well, the team that's going to pick number
12:03four or five or seven, like, they're automatically going to take him.
12:06Now, I'm saying, well, he could slip down to seven or eight at this point.
12:08The talent isn't making up here.
12:10Maybe there are more question marks than we think on Ace Bailey.
12:13Because, again, the original premise is, Flag can say whatever he wants.
12:17Dallas, if you draft me, I'm going overseas.
12:19You know what happens?
12:20Dallas drafts him number one overall and says, you'll be happy to be here and like it, and
12:24you'll enjoy the Dallas marketplace.
12:25So that's what I'm finding interesting, where Ace Bailey's saying, I don't want to go here.
12:29I don't want to go there.
12:30I'm not going to work out.
12:31And the team at number four is like, he's not making it past four.
12:34Then I don't care if he passes up with the Sixers.
12:35We're taking him here, where he might drop to six, seven, or eight.
12:38That's what I'm having a tough time with right now.
12:40So there it is on Ace Bailey for me.
12:43Again, I'm not making a full comparison to Shador Sanders, but the talent in question
12:48for Ace Bailey is not really the issue.
12:51It's how he has gone about this draft process, denying private workouts for certain organizations.
12:56You got to play the game to be a part of the game, regardless of how good you believe that
13:02you are, which was Shador's issue throughout the NFL draft process, skipping out on workouts,
13:08the senior ball and big 12 pro day, basically to only have one that rubs some people the wrong
13:13way in Boulder.
13:15That's all I am saying in that comparison.
13:17I don't think Ace Bailey is waiting until Thursday night in round number two to hear his
13:21name called.
13:22The odds makers still expect him to be a top five pick, but where exactly the spot, as
13:27you saw, that Ace Bailey is favored to be one of those first 10 selections is at sixth
13:32overall.
13:33It's where the Washington Wizards are drafting.
13:35Another storyline from EDRS is something you just mentioned.
13:39The very fact that Mavericks won the lottery.
13:41The very fact that Dallas is picking first overall.
13:44Basically the villainous Nico Harrison after dealing Luka Doncic gets rewarded despite the
13:51fact that Dallas had a 1.8% chance of winning the lottery and earning that first overall
13:58selection.
13:59The fourth lowest odds of any team to get that first overall pick since the lottery began
14:05back in 1985 and moving up 10 draft slots was a lottery record for the Dallas Mavericks
14:12as well.
14:13So much conversation about what is Dallas doing?
14:16They have cratered their franchise with one deal trading away Luka Doncic.
14:21They just extended Daniel Gafford.
14:23They got Derek Lively back.
14:24Both guys should be healthy.
14:26And now they get Cooper flagged.
14:27The rest of Mavericks could be a playoff team right away in 2025, 26.
14:32Good.
14:33That's what we want to see.
14:34More good teams in the NBA.
14:35Send good players to good teams.
14:36Don't reward those bum franchises that have been bummed for 25 years at this point.
14:40I love it.
14:41Like the fact that they'd sacrificed the Sixers, like, wait a second.
14:43Sixers had a much better chance of the ping pong balls to get number one.
14:46They didn't.
14:46They wound up with three, which they're fine with.
14:48But if it was the Dallas Mavericks, I'm saying to myself, like, oh, no, like, I don't
14:52mind.
14:52It's like, oh, what a crime it is at this point.
14:54Yes, they should have paid more of a price, theoretically, karma-wise, right, for trading
14:58Luka Doncic and how stupid that was.
15:00But I don't mind the Dallas Mavericks getting a good player back because it's a good team
15:03with a good player that we'll be able to enjoy next season.
15:05Like, did anybody want, hey, I would like to see Cooper fly go to Washington.
15:09Why?
15:09So you can never enjoy him at any part ever of his career at this point.
15:13Send him to a franchise that expects to win.
15:15We'll all watch him in prime time.
15:17And it helps the Dallas Mavericks.
15:18And it helps the Western Conference.
15:19I love the fact that the Mavericks got the number one overall pick.
15:23Good team, gets a great player.
15:24Let's go.
15:26Let's keep it in the Lone Star State.
15:28Sneaky DRS.
15:29Not just the Mavericks moving up, but also the rest of the top three.
15:32The Spurs and the Sixers into the top three.
15:35The Utah Jazz with the worst record draft fifth since the updated lottery in 2019, where there's
15:41the three teams with a 14% shot and the updated margins to try to de-incentivize tanking
15:47the team with the worst record in these draft lotteries, has not won it.
15:51But the Spurs drafting second.
15:53The prince that was promised the generational talent in Victor Wemenyama two years ago.
15:57Rookie of the year.
15:58Steph Castle, fourth overall last year.
16:00Rookie of the year.
16:01You've got the two reigning rookie of the years.
16:03You just traded for De'Aaron Fox.
16:05And now you're going to have Dylan Harper more than likely?
16:09Things are good in San Antonio as well.
16:11And finally, DRS, the idea of chaos as we have discussed.
16:14Outside of the top three, there is no minus money in the top 10.
16:19We could see some trades, both on draft night, leading into the draft in these next 36 hours
16:23as well.
16:25Exactly.
16:25And the fun of trade night begins when teams make trades.
16:28They've got to put on hats they're not actually going to go to.
16:30Nobody knows who actually has what.
16:31That's the fun of it as well.
16:32The NBA makes no sense at all.
16:34So there you go, NBA.
16:35We're ready for you.
16:37Best part of the Rockets drafting for the Suns at 10.
16:40More on the earlier live next.
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