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Columbia Üniversitesi Ekonomi Profesörü Jeffrey Sachs: Netanyahu'dan emir alıyoruz, gerçekten inanılmaz!
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00:00
But isn't the lesson of Iraq that if you destabilize a regime without any plan for what happens
00:07
afterwards, if there's no political culture in a country to take up the vacuum, you might
00:13
end up with something worse than you had before?
00:17
Well, certainly the lesson of Iraq is that you should plan for the day after much better
00:22
than we did, having been a two-star general and commander of the 101st Airborne Division
00:26
during the fight to Baghdad and then the subsequent first year there, and also don't make mistakes
00:31
like firing the entire army without a plan for it and the political party that we needed
00:38
to help run a country that we didn't fully understand, at least the bureaucratic elements
00:42
of that, not the leaders.
00:43
There are many lessons from Iraq.
00:45
They don't necessarily apply here.
00:47
I don't think that there are opposition forces in Iran that have sufficient manpower, leadership
00:55
and weapons to overthrow the regime.
00:58
And I tend to doubt that there will be someone from within the regime that will take down
01:03
the regime leadership.
01:06
And in fact, they do need to be careful, though, that the elements in the country, for example,
01:13
the Iranian Kurds, the Iranian Turks, the Azeris, the Baluchis, might seek union with their relatives
01:24
outside the country.
01:26
But again, for the time being, I think if they agreed to stop right now, I think they could remain in control
01:33
of the country.
01:35
And we're not on the ground out to topple that particular regime.
01:40
But it's really up to them.
01:41
I think the Supreme Leader, again, needs to follow the example of his predecessor and drink
01:47
from that poison chalice.
01:49
If, as seems likely, Iran has managed to get its enriched uranium out of those premises
01:58
before they were bombed, doesn't there remain the risk, whoever is in charge of that country
02:04
eventually, of a dirty bomb or of uranium and centrifuges protected to be able to get to
02:11
a nuclear weapon quite quickly?
02:12
Well, I think quite quickly at this point in time is probably out of the question.
02:18
Beyond that, I think that we will end up knowing what has happened, whether that highly enriched
02:25
uranium that was stockpiled in a couple of different locations and the advanced centrifuges
02:30
in particular have been destroyed or not.
02:33
That's the job of intelligence.
02:36
We've seen how extraordinarily impressively Israel and Mossad have penetrated.
02:42
the country.
02:44
And obviously, the U.S. has considerable means of determining what has happened as well.
02:51
And at the end of the day, I don't think that is going to be left.
02:54
That will be one of the elements of an agreement that will be insisted upon by the United States.
03:02
And frankly, if they don't agree to that, Israel can continue to degrade elements of the regime
03:09
that threaten the region, virtually at will, given the real destruction of any meaningful strategic air
03:18
and ballistic missile defenses in Iran.
03:20
And what do you make of Israel's targeting of its operations?
03:26
It seems to be hitting targets close to civilian facilities, universities.
03:33
It's hitting targets in the center of Tehran now.
03:37
Is it clear what they're trying to do?
03:40
I think it is.
03:42
I think they have been, frankly, incredibly impressive in their targeting.
03:47
Taking out probably now that, well, approaching 20 nuclear scientists quite precisely.
03:55
Taking out centers of research again quite precisely.
03:58
Taking out military and regime leaders very precisely.
04:02
And now expanding the target list to go after military headquarters, air bases, missile launchers
04:11
and stockpiles and so forth.
04:14
I think they've done an incredible job in that regard.
04:18
Apparently, there are no casualties on the attack in Qatar.
04:22
So do you think this can now end peacefully?
04:25
Well, we haven't heard what happened in the attack on the base outside Erbil in northern Iraq.
04:31
And so pending that, if there are no casualties there as well, then this clearly, if this is it,
04:38
this was the token Iranian response, well telegraphed, it appears, and impressively defended against.
04:47
And now we can shift to the diplomatic realm, which again, instead of negotiations,
04:53
really should be a take it or leave it for Iran to give up its nuclear program,
05:00
all of it, and to end it, and to allow the IAEA full inspection of the dismantlement of that program.
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Columbia Üniversitesi Ekonomi Profesörü Jeffrey Sachs: Netanyahu'dan emir alıyoruz, gerçekten inanılmaz!
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