00:00General, if you were advising the president now, what would you be saying?
00:04Well, first, I'd be waiting to see if this is all that Iran is going to send toward U.S. bases in the region.
00:12The strike on the base outside Doha, Qatar, Al-Yadid Air Base, which is where the Central Command Forward headquarters,
00:20that seems to have been telegraphed well in advance.
00:23There's very substantial air defense.
00:25Again, if all those are knocked down, terrific.
00:27That was just a token of retaliation.
00:31And then the attack on the base that is in northern Iraq, outside Erbil.
00:37Again, we'll see what happens there as well.
00:39So first, is this the totality of the Iranian response?
00:44If so, and they're all knocked down, there are no casualties to American or other forces, then all well.
00:53And now you can pursue to seek a ceasefire with Iran pursuant to negotiations.
01:00Quite an ultimatum, frankly, that Iran will give up its entire nuclear program and allow the International Atomic Energy Agency to oversee the dismantlement of that program and inspect wherever and whenever they choose to.
01:16And what if there are American casualties?
01:21Does that demand a bigger response?
01:24I think it does.
01:26And again, I think that Iran chose carefully in this case, touch wood, that this would allow them to say that they have retaliated against the headquarters of the U.S. force in the region.
01:39That headquarters very likely not fully manned, to put it mildly, given the expectation of this kind of response.
01:46And that should be it for them.
01:51But if there are casualties, then you're going to see another round of retaliation from the United States.
01:57Why should Iran submit to international inspection when Israel doesn't?
02:03Because they're in a very, very weak position.
02:06They are not trusted.
02:08They cannot be allowed to have nuclear weapons.
02:11People may argue that they won't commit suicide.
02:14Frankly, there have been plenty of folks that have committed suicide from their ranks and other ranks of extremists in the region.
02:23And what do you say to those who say, look, this is a sovereign nation and it needs to be respected, not pushed around by, you know, the imperial power America?
02:34I'd say that this, quote, sovereign nation has been the biggest supporter of terrorism, not just in the Middle East, but arguably in the world.
02:44I mean, you know what the other side of that argument is, don't you?
02:52I mean, and the Iranians make it in terms of U.S. foreign policy and the impact on the wider world and the behavior of Israel with regards to its neighbors.
03:03I mean, down this route, there only seems to be more conflict.
03:07I disagree.
03:10Down this route, there's going to be Iranian capitulation or certainly conflict will continue and they're going to come out on the short end of it, as they already are.
03:21Look, Iran has already had its two most important proxies, Lebanese Hezbollah and Hamas, dramatically degraded.
03:29They've lost their ally in Syria with the overthrow of the murderous Bashar al-Assad regime.
03:36The Houthis aren't as strong as they were, and the Iraqi Shia militia are also seeming to take a low profile approach to this.
03:44And they are dramatically diminished as well.
03:47Their nuclear program has sustained enormous damage, at the very least.
03:52There could be, to be sure, some stockpiles of high-enriched uranium or centrifuges that were taken out of these facilities before they were so severely damaged.
04:01But we'll determine that in the weeks that lie ahead.
04:05Their missile stocks are dramatically depleted.
04:07And, of course, the ability to make more of those and to craft more missile launchers also heavily degraded.
04:14They're in a very, very weak position, arguably the weakest they have been since the previous Supreme Leader took a drink from the so-called poison chalice,
04:25agreeing to conditions that ended the Iran-Iraq war.
04:31But isn't the lesson of Iraq that if you destabilize a regime without any plan for what happens afterwards,
04:40if there's no political culture in a country to take up the vacuum, you might end up with something worse than you had before?
04:49Well, certainly the lesson of Iraq is that you should plan for the day after much better than we did,
04:55having been a two-star general and commander of the 101st Airborne Division during the fight to Baghdad
04:59and then the subsequent first year there.
05:01And also don't make mistakes like firing the entire army without a plan for it
05:06and the political party that we needed to help run a country that we didn't fully understand,
05:12at least the bureaucratic elements of that, not the leaders.
05:16There are many lessons from Iraq.
05:17They don't necessarily apply here.
05:19I don't think that there are opposition forces in Iran
05:24that have sufficient manpower, leadership, and weapons to overthrow the regime.
05:30And I tend to doubt that there will be someone from within the regime
05:33that will take down the regime leadership.
05:38And in fact, they do need to be careful, though, that the elements in the country,
05:45for example, the Iranian Kurds, the Iranian Turks, the Azeris, the Baluchis,
05:52might seek union with their relatives outside the country.
05:58But again, for the time being, I think if they agreed to stop right now,
06:03I think they could remain in control of the country.
06:07And we're not on the ground out to topple that particular regime.
06:12But it's really up to them.
06:13I think the Supreme Leader, again, needs to follow the example of his predecessor
06:17and drink from that poison chalice.
06:22If, as seems likely, Iran has managed to get its enriched uranium
06:28out of those premises before they were bombed,
06:32doesn't there remain the risk, whoever is in charge of that country eventually,
06:37of a dirty bomb or of uranium and centrifuges protected
06:42to be able to get to a nuclear weapon quite quickly?
06:44Well, I think quite quickly at this point in time is probably out of the question.
06:50Beyond that, I think that we will end up knowing what has happened,
06:55whether that highly enriched uranium that was stockpiled in a couple of different locations
07:01and the advanced centrifuges in particular have been destroyed or not.
07:05That's the job of intelligence.
07:08We've seen how extraordinarily impressively Israel and Mossad have penetrated the country.
07:16And obviously the U.S. has considerable means of determining what has happened as well.
07:24And at the end of the day, I don't think that is going to be left.
07:27That will be one of the elements of an agreement that will be insisted upon by the United States.
07:34And frankly, if they don't agree to that, Israel can continue to degrade elements of the regime
07:41that threaten the region, firstly at will, given the real destruction
07:48of any meaningful strategic air and ballistic missile defences in Iran.
07:55And what do you make of Israel's targeting of its operations?
07:59It seems to be hitting targets close to civilian facilities, universities.
08:05It's hitting targets in the center of Tehran now.
08:10Is it clear what they're trying to do?
08:13I think it is.
08:14I think they have been, frankly, incredibly impressive in their targeting.
08:19Taking out probably now that, well, approaching 20 nuclear scientists quite precisely.
08:26Taking out centers of research, again, quite precisely.
08:30Taking out military and regime leaders very precisely.
08:35And now expanding the target list to go after military headquarters, air bases,
08:43missile launchers and stockpiles and so forth.
08:46I think they've done an incredible job in that regard.
08:50Apparently there are no casualties on the attack in Qatar.
08:54So do you think this can now end peacefully?
08:56Well, we haven't heard what happened in the attack on the base outside Erbil in northern Iraq.
09:04And so pending that, if there are no casualties there as well, then this clearly, if this is it,
09:10this was the token Iranian response, well telegraphed, it appears, and impressively defended against.
09:19And now we can shift to the diplomatic realm, which again, instead of negotiations,
09:25really should be a take it or leave it for Iran to give up its nuclear program, all of it,
09:34and to end it, and to allow the IAEA full inspection of the dismantlement of that program.
09:41And then we'll see that there is an opportunity.
