00:00Let's bring in now Sean Bell, a retired RAF Air Vice-Marshal and military analyst, the RAF, of course, the British Royal Air Force.
00:08Thank you, sir, for your time today.
00:10What do you think about what the Americans are calling a precision operation?
00:14Was this as big a military success for the U.S. as they're signaling?
00:18And was Iran expecting this attack so soon, the Pentagon hailing its deception tactics in deploying what it's calling its strike package?
00:27Yeah, good afternoon, Paul.
00:29I mean, one of the things that you have to admire is just the sheer size, scale and technology of the U.S. forces.
00:37Op Midnight Hammer, you know, involved 125 U.S. military aircraft, 24 Tomahawk missiles launched from 400 miles away from a submarine,
00:4775 precision-guarded bombs and, most amazing, seven B-2 Spirit bombers.
00:53Now, putting that to context, I think although the U.S. had planned to buy a load of those, they only bought 21 in the end.
00:59Two of those are no longer flying.
01:01They've only got 19.
01:02Seven of them were involved in this mission, each carrying two of these massive bombs.
01:08And the slight juxtaposition, the oddity is that this is massively high-tech, air, space and cyber, yet it was all about delivering 14 of the biggest bombs ever used that are available in the inventory,
01:2230,000 pounds of bunker buster. Whether it was actually a successful strike or not, we'll have to wait and see.
01:30The battle damage assessment, we can get into that, but that yet, that probably hasn't been done yet, so the Americans won't know whether it's been successful or not.
01:37Mm-hmm. And what's the thinking now on how Iran is likely to retaliate?
01:42What kind of material does it have to retaliate with rockets and missiles?
01:47Will it look to engaging militias and other organizations, terrorist organizations, perhaps?
01:53And just how nervous are those U.S. targets in the region?
01:57You know, some 20 bases, I think it is, mainly in Gulf states, 40,000 U.S. troops, also warships in the region.
02:03Yeah, Paul, there's a lot of different ways in which the Americans could be targeted.
02:11There's no doubt about that. There's also Strait of Hormuz and others.
02:14But what you have to work out here is that Iran is feeling incredibly vulnerable, even just taking on Israel.
02:21Israel managed to roll back its air defenses and now provides air dominance over the western part of Iran and over Tehran.
02:29That was before America even got involved. So there are Israeli fighter jets operating with impunity over the top of Iran.
02:38The last thing Iran wants to do is to pick a fight with a major global superpower.
02:43What America has just done with this strike has demonstrated just how effective it can be at a time and place of its choosing.
02:49And I think that puts Iran in a really difficult situation at the moment.
02:53There's no doubt that rhetoric will be high, but I'd be really surprised if they do something spectacular because they will bring the wrath of the U.S. on them and they can ill afford to do that.
03:04Most regimes, their number one priority is their own survival.
03:08I'd be very surprised if the Iranian regime actually does something spectacular.
03:12But we are waiting with bated breath to see what they might do.
03:16Right. And, Sean, you mentioned the Strait of Hormuz.
03:20Could that be an area where the Iranians might be able to do something sooner?
03:24And what kind of effect could disruption there have, not least on oil prices?
03:30Yeah, the Strait of Hormuz, and without getting into a geography lesson,
03:34but it is a sort of an arterial route for a lot of the world's oil supply.
03:37But it is worth noting that the biggest consumer of oil that comes through that is China.
03:43China hasn't been involved in this conflict.
03:45Iran will not want to mess around with China.
03:48And therefore, there are some benefits, but also some downsides to getting involved in the Straits of Hormuz.
03:55I think what's fascinating is that if I was the Iranian military commander,
04:00I think I would have been trying to put up some sort of fight to demonstrate that we were at least doing something.
04:05There's no evidence at all of any Iranian jets flying over Israel.
04:09There's no evidence of any Iranian jets going up to meet the Israeli attacks or the American attacks as well.
04:18And by all accounts, none of the radars were effective at targeting any of the American strike package as well.
04:24So I wouldn't overestimate just what Iran's military capability is at the moment,
04:29although they might use some of their proxy groups just to cause some disturbance.
04:33Sean, looking at the wider U.S. strategy here, we were hearing a little earlier how America doesn't have a good record
04:41in terms of getting involved in military quagmires in the Middle East.
04:45A lot of criticism over Washington's engagement, their entanglement here in this conflict between Iran and Israel.
04:53What's the endgame here for the Americans?
04:54Well, I think what's fascinating, when you listen to Pete Hexeth and the press conference, he was very straight.
05:02This is not about regime change.
05:03He was very, very clear about that.
05:05And I think a lot of commentators were worried about America getting embroiled in that.
05:10Pete Hexeth was very clear.
05:11This is a short, sharp shock.
05:13We now want to get Iran to the table.
05:15If they don't, we'll make it worse.
05:16My one issue with that, though, is that we go back to this issue of battle damage assessment.
05:22The targets at Fordeaux are 80 metres below the ground, below rocks, below mountainsides and the like.
05:29And when I was in the military, let's give an example.
05:31When we were in the Iraq War, you could put a bomb through a hardened aircraft shelter.
05:35There was a hole in the top.
05:36But you couldn't tell whether you destroyed what was inside.
05:39In the same way, it would be very difficult immediately to tell if these attacks on Fordeaux were successful.
05:45If they were not, then actually, unless America continues having a go at them with repeat performances,
05:51the danger is that it's taken all the risk by attacking Iran, but with none of the benefits.
05:56So I don't think we've yet quite seen the end of the American military capability demonstration.
06:02Sean, we really appreciate your expertise on this today.
06:05Thank you so much for joining us.
06:07That's Sean Bell, retired RAF Air Vice Marshal and a military analyst.
