- 6/20/2025
Amid the escalating conflict with Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has issued a stark warning that no one in Iran's regime is immune, following a series of missile strikes.
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00:00From Haifa in the north to Tel Aviv to Beersheva in the southern part of Israel,
00:07the country is in the line of Iranian missile fire, including the hypersonic missiles.
00:13Now, U.S. President Donald Trump has given two weeks' time for diplomacy.
00:17But is that actually a smokescreen?
00:18As U.S. assets move into the region, some reports indicate intensification of operations.
00:24Will the United States jump in?
00:26Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, he's added a very dangerous and a rather sinister note,
00:33saying no one in Iran should have immunity.
00:36And this is a day after Israel's Defence Minister Israel Katz said,
00:40Ayatollah Ali Khamenei cannot be allowed to exist.
00:45Now, that's dangerous.
00:47Is the supreme leader of Iran in the line of Israeli fire?
00:51Is it then endgame Ayatollah Ali Khamenei?
00:56Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's big warning.
01:04Israel issues the Kill Khamenei threat.
01:10Can Israel take Ayatollah Khamenei out?
01:14Is this endgame regime change in Iran?
01:22Israel-Iran on the brink of a massive escalation.
01:27That's our top focus on India First.
01:30Iran is not backing down either.
01:37Israel has been in the line of direct fire from Haifa in the north to Tel Aviv in the center
01:41and Beersheva in the southern part of Israel.
01:44And this just shows the extent of Iran's missile strike capabilities.
01:49What will the United States do now?
01:51Will U.S. President Donald Trump send in the U.S. fighters with U.S. fighter pilots
01:56and the GBU-57 bunker busters for repeat deep penetration strikes at the Fordo nuclear facility?
02:04And is there then a risk of massive escalation across West Asia?
02:09We get you a 360-degree perspective on this big story.
02:13I'm Gaurav Savant.
02:13As always, let's get started with the headlines on India First.
02:21Israel-Iran missile strikes intensify.
02:24Israeli Prime Minister says no one in Iran regime is immune.
02:27This amidst reports, Netanyahu and IDF chiefs met top U.S. officials.
02:40Pakistan's big admission on Operation Sindur damage.
02:42Pakistan's deputy prime minister admits India hit key bases including Noor Khan says the Indian attack caught Pakistan off guard.
02:57Prime Minister Narendra Modi calls out RJD and Lalu Yadav over insult to Dr. Bhim Rao Ambedkar says
03:04As they keep Ambedkar at their feet, I keep Baba Sahib in my heart.
03:10RJD Supremo hits back says,
03:14It's raining lies in Bihar.
03:18RJD and Congress
03:19Kerala Congress says Shashi Tharoor is on its list of star campaigners.
03:40This clarifies, Tharoor was not invited by top brass for a rally in the state
03:45because the Congress MP was out of the country that time.
03:48Karnadaga government hikes housing quota for minorities from 10 to 15 percent.
04:00Leaked audio of the Congress MLA alleges massive corruption under the Rajiv Gandhi housing scheme.
04:05BJP demands the state housing minister's resignation.
04:09Iran has launched a fresh wave of missiles at Israel targeting even civilian buildings in Tel Aviv.
04:22Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei says Israel is now receiving its punishment.
04:29And this fresh escalation comes just hours after Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu indicated
04:35that Israel is not ruling out strikes to take out Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
04:44The big question on India first, is it then endgame of the West Asia war
04:49or is the real endgame of this West Asia war actually a regime change operation in Iran?
04:59The war between Iran and Israel is well into second week
05:07and the relentless missile and drone attacks by both nations
05:11has created a massive humanitarian crisis in West Asia.
05:17After the hospital attack in Israel's Bay Sheva,
05:21it was a tech park in South Israel that was hit by Iranian missiles
05:25causing severe damage to the Microsoft building.
05:28The attack led to a blazing fire in the same compound, which saw several cars gutted.
05:37They're targeting civilians because they're a criminal regime.
05:41They're the arch-terrorists of the world.
05:43They want to have nuclear terrorism, which will put the entire world under nuclear blackmail
05:47and they would use these weapons.
05:49That's what the Atollah Khamenei says that he would do.
05:51He would use these weapons to wipe Israel off the map.
05:54Well, he's not going to. We're not going to let him.
05:57And we're in the process of achieving a tremendous victory.
06:00And our victory is aimed at those two goals.
06:02People ask me, are we targeting the downfall of the regime?
06:06That may be a result, but it's up to the Iranian people to rise for their freedom.
06:12With each passing day, the attacks from both sides are becoming deadlier.
06:16Iran launched a wave of missile attacks targeting Israeli military sites.
06:23As the countermeasure, Israel destroyed Iran's air defense systems and missiles launchers.
06:30As tit-for-tat strikes continue, it seems that there are only two possible scenarios that will end it.
06:37A de-escalation, which seems extremely unlikely, or a decisive U.S. military intervention.
06:43All eyes are, therefore, on Trump's decision to enter the war.
06:50The White House has made it clear that, at no cost, it will allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons,
06:57and Trump's decision will be made within two weeks.
07:01With respect to Iran, nobody should be surprised by the president's position
07:06that Iran absolutely cannot obtain a nuclear weapon.
07:09He's been unequivocally clear about this for decades.
07:11Iran's stance is not quite clear at the moment.
07:16On one hand, it does not want Israel to rebuild its arsenal during a ceasefire,
07:21and on the other hand, it stresses on no dialogues and diplomacy amid destruction.
07:27Any ceasefire now will lead to renewed war.
07:37We must not allow the enemy, which is currently in a weak position, to revive itself with a ceasefire.
07:42We have used less than 30% of our military capabilities.
07:46As long as the aggressions of the Zionist regime continue, we are not willing to negotiate with anyone.
07:57U.S. wants to negotiate.
07:59They have sent messages several times.
08:02We have made our stance clear.
08:04No talks till the invasion stops.
08:06But as the two nations wage war watched by the world, the real victims remain humans, stuck in the conflict zone.
08:17So is it possible for Israel to take out Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran?
08:29He's heavily guarded by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Wali Amra Protection Corps.
08:34And he's perhaps the best protected man in all of Iran.
08:40Israel, of course, has displayed tremendous capabilities.
08:43It's taken out the entire leadership of Hamas, of Hezbollah, and top commanders, including of IRGC and the Israeli army.
08:53It's taken out leaders inside the presidential palace in Tehran.
08:58But the supreme commander is better protected.
09:00So Israel will need precise intelligence.
09:03A strike without collateral damage would be virtually impossible in a situation like this.
09:09The assassination of Ayatollah could provoke serious escalation.
09:13It could lead to massive escalation.
09:15And there would be anger across the Shia world.
09:17Across the world there would be anger.
09:19Now, even if Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could, if imagined, he is taken out.
09:26Will the regime in Iran still remain stable?
09:29Do they have systems in place?
09:31Is there a successor?
09:33Many argue that his son is already waiting in the wings.
09:37But the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei could, as some argue, it could end internal dissent.
09:43It could lead to consolidation of democratic forces in Iran.
09:47That's one argument that's being put forward.
09:49It could lead to international outrage.
09:51It may result in a power vacuum.
09:53Could it also lead to civil war in Iran?
09:56But look at how other countries have reacted.
09:58President Putin of Russia, for example, or President Xi Jinping in China, they've already hinted that there could be massive escalation.
10:06Countries like Saudi Arabia, they have said you cannot target civilian nuclear facilities.
10:11That's a violation of international law.
10:13I'll get you more on the story.
10:14We have a big team of experts joining us on the show.
10:17But I quickly want to cut across to my colleague Shivani Sharma.
10:20Now, I want to also bring in other aspects of the story.
10:24In principles of war, there is classification of aim and there is maintenance of aim.
10:30What is Israel's aim right now?
10:32Destroy what they initially claimed was ballistic missile threat?
10:35Destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities?
10:37Bring about a regime change operation?
10:39And is the United States on board on all of this?
10:43We'll bring in our guests on the show.
10:46I have Adrian Calamel joining me on the show.
10:49He's a terrorism and Middle East scholar joining me on the show.
10:52He's a fellow at the Arabian Peninsula Institute.
10:55Ori Goldberg is an Israeli academic Middle East studies expert.
10:59Joins me on the show.
11:00Zahak Tanvir is again a Middle East expert director of the Millie Chronicle.
11:04Joins me from London.
11:05Sushant Sareen is a strategic affairs expert, senior fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
11:10With me is Sandeep Unnithan, senior journalist in the studio.
11:13But Shivani, to you first.
11:15What's the latest on Ground Zero?
11:17You're in Israel.
11:18You were in Tel Aviv.
11:20Missiles coming in Haifa, Tel Aviv and Beershev.
11:24It just goes to show the extent of Israel that Iran can target.
11:29What's the current situation?
11:30Right now in Tel Aviv, close to the United States embassy.
11:36And remember, this was the place which was hit three days back.
11:39And today, also an hour back, there has been a fresh missile attack in Haifa.
11:45And it's being reported that there's a government building which has been hit by this missile.
11:50We still need to wait for official information on the assessment of the whole situation.
11:54But the situation remains escalating as we are reporting that this is the eighth day.
11:59And from both the sides, there are fresh attacks.
12:02This city of Tel Aviv is also witnessing a number of sirens.
12:07And these people, I was talking to the people in Tel Aviv, they say that even if they have to go ten times into a shelter, they are okay with it.
12:14They are assured of the kind of protection mechanism that IDF has for them.
12:19But certainly there is an impact on life on ground, Gaurav, as I've been seeing, that the crowd on the roads has been cut short.
12:27The number of people who used to come out on the markets, on the roads, in different places in Israel have come down.
12:35The schools are closed.
12:36But people are saying that they are ready for any kind of challenges because what they believe is that Israel's operations were important.
12:45Because as you were speaking about, the aim, Gaurav, the aim with which this operation started as per Israel was to neutralize the nuclear threat from Iran,
12:55to neutralize the ICBM production by Iran, and also the regime change that has been spoken of.
13:02But certainly there is an impact and there is no sign of de-escalation as of now.
13:07Keep tracking that story.
13:08I will come back to you for more.
13:10Adrian Calamal, U.S. President Donald Trump indicated there is still two weeks' time for diplomacy.
13:17Remember, he suddenly left the G7 summit and rushed to the Situation Room at the White House.
13:22Is this two-week window for diplomacy a smokescreen to suddenly launch a strike as soon as U.S. assets are in place?
13:29How do you read his statement?
13:32Thank you for having me.
13:33I think there's a couple of things going on here.
13:35It's one, moving U.S. assets out in some places where we don't have the force protection on them.
13:42It's moving assets into the region.
13:45And it's also providing Israel some more time to deal with some of the objectives,
13:50such as the ballistic missiles that we are still coming in that should have been covered under the first JCPOA under Obama.
13:57That was a major failure.
13:59And we're seeing the consequences now.
14:00Now, that's the delivery system for a nuclear weapon.
14:05So I do think this is—Trump's mind is made up.
14:10No enrichment, no reprocessing.
14:12Comedy's mind's made up.
14:14He does not want to give up.
14:15He will never give up with this program.
14:18That's from people that—good intelligence.
14:23So Fordo is the one place that's really of concern.
14:27And there's also a concern is what's going on inside there right now.
14:30Is there a race towards a bomb or some type of militarization, which we've seen them.
14:37They've been racing towards weaponization.
14:39So if you look at, like, their ability to produce nuclear weapons, you know, once they hit that militarization date,
14:46they could produce their first nuclear weapon just within seven days.
14:51And then one month, they can produce up to 11 warheads.
14:55So Trump's mind's made up.
14:57Fordo cannot stand.
15:00Comedy's mind is made up.
15:01So the off-ramp's been offered.
15:04I don't expect Khamenei to take it.
15:06And, you know, these are kind of stalling actions.
15:09I believe Trump is just giving a lifeline to—not a lifeline, but just prepping the battlefield a little more until that time comes.
15:18Okay, because if it's a race against time, then they clearly do not have two weeks, a window of two weeks.
15:23But Ori Goldberg, is Ayatollah Ali Khamenei now the target of the Israeli forces?
15:30Is regime change operation, you know, priority number one and not the Fordo nuclear facility?
15:38I don't know and I don't think Israel knows.
15:41I think Israel has no strategic foresight when it comes to this conflict in Iran.
15:45Israel carried out a brilliant tactical attack.
15:48It achieved aerial dominance.
15:50Now Israel is stuck.
15:51Israel has said it wants regime change.
15:53Israel has said it wants to stop the nuclear program.
15:55And with all due respect to what your guest just said, I very much disagree with everything.
16:01I don't think Trump's mind is made up.
16:03I think the Iranians and the Americans are talking the whole time.
16:07I think the Americans are not talking to the Israelis so much because there's not a lot to talk about with Israel.
16:12Israel doesn't know what it wants.
16:14The Iranians have already said they're willing to accept limitations on enrichment.
16:18They've already said they're willing to commit to having no nuclear weapon.
16:21Trump has repeatedly said that the one thing that is important is that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon.
16:28I don't think Ayatollah Khamenei's mind is made up.
16:31I don't think the Islamic Republic is composed of fanatic zealots, fanatic zealots who are incapable of pragmatism.
16:38In fact, I think it's the other way around.
16:41Israel attacked Iran unprovoked, unilaterally, in stark violation of international law.
16:47The Iranians are now trying to reach some point where they can negotiate with the United States.
16:52To me, that signifies that both Iran and the United States know that while Israel can carry on bombings almost unimpeded,
17:00Israel can do little else in Iran at the moment.
17:03Okay, so that bombing continues, but you said the mines are still not made up.
17:08Do you want to quickly come back on this, Adrian, before I bring in our other guests?
17:14It just kind of contradicts the realities on the ground.
17:19When you look at it, it's really dominant in the air.
17:21Really?
17:22The realities are not necessarily, or they are in the eye of the beholder.
17:26Okay, whatever.
17:32Not whatever.
17:34If you want to insist that Khamenei and the Islamic Republic speak in one voice and have their mind made up,
17:43and this is all something that Iran instigated, and that they have enough material to build nine or eleven bombs in seven days,
17:50well, that is just, to the best of my knowledge, and also, according to the IAEA report, just wrong.
17:56Well, no, it's not wrong, because you look at other individual assessments, such as David Albright's assessments taken from the United States.
18:04David Albright's assessments are nothing compared to the assessments of every intelligence organization in the world.
18:10What you're saying is just incorrect.
18:12Who, Tulsi Gabbard? Tulsi Gabbard?
18:14That was...
18:15Oh, I'm not getting into American politics with you.
18:21Israeli assessments, as well as American assessments, are very clear.
18:24The Iranians are not seven days away from building nine devices.
18:28That's just wrong.
18:30It's a partisan take on news that I think, generally in the professional community, is accepted and consensual.
18:36What you're saying is wrong.
18:38Go to the foundation of defices of democracy.
18:40Give me a moment.
18:41Give me a moment.
18:42Give me a moment.
18:43Let me bring in Zahak Tanveer, who joins us from London.
18:46And let's open this up.
18:48Sushant Salim also waiting to respond.
18:50Zahak Tanveer, should Ayatollah Ali Khamenei be targeted?
18:54Will it not anger the entire Shia world, if not the entire Muslim world, if such a senior religious leader is taken out?
19:03Though his core team of generals have been neutralized.
19:06Is that, in your appreciation, also the writing on the wall, sir?
19:10Thank you for having me on, Gaurav.
19:13The first thing, it is not easy.
19:15It's not the piece of cake to have the regime change in Iran, just to replace Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
19:20Yes, I do support that Iran should not have the nuclear weaponry.
19:24Iran should not have that because Iran has the expansionist agenda.
19:27Iran believes in the expansionism.
19:29And since the day one, Iran has been reiterating this point that the nuclear in itself is for the destruction of the state of Israel.
19:38And I believe that it's not plausible to support Iran in this aspect.
19:43But the second point is Khamenei is not just the political leader, unlike Gaddafi and Saddam Hussein.
19:51Khamenei is a spiritual leader as well.
19:53You have people in India supporting Khamenei.
19:56You have people in Pakistan, in Afghanistan.
19:59And we have seen in the recent past, especially after the Arab Spring, in Syria, in Iraq, and in Yemen, and other places, that mobilization of the Iranian militias.
20:09There were cases where the militias were even recruited from Afghanistan and Pakistan on $600 per month salary.
20:17So you can understand the spiritual or religious affiliation to Ali Khamenei.
20:22So if Ali Khamenei is eliminated, it will be unleashing a great catastrophe in the Middle East.
20:29There will be the resurgence of ISIS as well.
20:31There will be the clashes between the Sunni and the Shia militias.
20:35And obviously, the whole Middle East will be in the utter chaos.
20:38And talking from the technical perspective, you know, the military pyramid of Iran, they have the Artesh at the top, and they have the IRGC, and they have the Basij militia.
20:52So the Artesh is almost like $420,000, the personal, and they have the IRGC, $190,000.
20:59And Basij is, like, present everywhere.
21:01The deep state is so strong in Iran.
21:02So there will be a great power vacuum if Khamenei himself is eliminated.
21:08But at the same time, Israeli president, Herzog, I think, yesterday, he made a point that they are not looking for the regime change.
21:16If regime change happens, then that will be beneficial for the Iranians.
21:21We've had two statements coming in from the defense minister and the prime minister.
21:26Okay, Ori wants to come in quickly before I bring in Sushant Sareen.
21:29Quick, 30-second interjection, sir.
21:31The official Israeli spokespersons, the defense minister, his executive authority, in opposition to the president, said that Israel is after regime change.
21:39And, sir, ISIS is not related to Iran in any way.
21:42Suggesting that the death of Ali Khamenei will reignite a global jihad is really just misrepresenting the reality on the ground in the Muslim world.
21:48Okay, Sushant Sareen, no one in Iran should have immunity.
21:54Benjamin Netanyahu's quote, clear indication that a target has now been painted on the back of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
22:01You've also heard what Israel Katz, the defense minister of Israel, said.
22:05So, Gaurav, the problem is going to be even if you take out Ali Khamenei, let us assume you manage to eliminate him.
22:15How does that solve the problem?
22:16I would imagine that, and I'm not one way or another endorsing regime change, but purely on a logical plane, if you don't go in for a regime change and you cannot ensure a regime change,
22:30then it's simply a matter of time before the Iranians or the current regime, and if it's not Khamenei, it's his successor, likely to be even more hardline.
22:43Then it's simply a matter of time before Iran once again restarts its nuclear program and rebuilds whatever has been destroyed.
22:51I would imagine that is going to be an incentive for them.
22:54And perhaps they would cover up some of the gaps which they have noticed this time around.
22:59In any case, if you do not go in for a regime change, then you have a problem of this issue recurring, not just the nuclear part of it, but even the other part of it, where Iran questions Israel's right to exist.
23:16But regime change is not going to be easy.
23:18For some reasons, like Mr. Tanveer has elucidated, it's a very deeply entrenched system.
23:26There is nobody waiting in the wings, unless, of course, you think that the guy sitting in California, the son of the Shah, is going to come and simply everybody is going to be lining the streets to welcome him.
23:37I'm afraid that's not going to happen, right?
23:39Iran's moved on.
23:40Nobody even remembers who the Shah was anymore.
23:42And not that the Shah was a great icon of democracy and progressive values or any such thing.
23:48So the point is, if you are going to replace these guys, who are you going to replace them with?
23:53And if, for example, and I'm just probably going to an extreme, if Iran was to descend into chaos, some kind of civil war of the sorts, we've seen in places like Iraq, we've seen in places like Syria.
24:08Even from an Indian point of view, and even I would imagine from an Israeli point of view, it does not really help, because that would set the entire Middle East on fire.
24:19It would set in motion forces, and this is where ISIS comes in.
24:25Forces like the ISIS, which still have some kind of restraining factor on them because there is a Shiite regime in Iran.
24:33Maybe some of those forces will get wind.
24:37So the problem is going to be that there is no clear path, which is, you know, visible as to how you're going to settle this thing.
24:46Gaurav, allow me half a minute.
24:48Go on, sir.
24:50Look, my point is that the Americans have been deadly against Iran's nuclear weapons capability.
24:56Now, it's an academic debate, whether they are seven hours away, seven days, seven weeks, seven months, that's an academic debate.
25:04The point is that the Israelis have now willy-nilly created a situation where you have an opportunity to destroy whatever nuclear facilities Iran has built.
25:15And if the Americans are not going to make use of this opportunity and depend upon some kind of political negotiations, which they've tried in the past and not been very satisfied with, I don't see how that's going to solve this entire crisis going forward.
25:31So I would imagine that this is a golden opportunity for the Americans to step in.
25:35Whether I like it or not is not the issue.
25:39My point is that…
25:39No, but all indications are, Sandeep, Sandeep, all indications are it's already happening.
25:45Three aircraft carrier battle groups moving into the region.
25:48B-2 and B-52 bombers moving in.
25:51Sandeep, Auri, give me a moment.
25:52Let me just quickly bring in Sandeep for his military perspective.
25:56And he's been tracking military movements very closely.
25:59Two weeks or is two weeks a smokescreen, Sandeep, it could happen much earlier.
26:03Well, Gaurav, no one really knows.
26:06But, you know, what's happening right now in Central Command Theater is that massive forces are being moved into place.
26:12You have one carrier strike group that's already there.
26:15The Carl Vinson CSG is already there in the Arabian Sea.
26:19A second one, the Nimitz carrier strike group is moving into position, possibly coming off the Red Sea.
26:25A third carrier strike group, that is the Ford, USS Ford is moving in, apparently, into the Mediterranean.
26:31So that's a large number of carrier strike groups.
26:34And U.S. presidents typically want to have all the carrier strike groups in place before they take a decision.
26:40And not to mention the fact that you have one-fourth of the B-2 spirit, you know, force that is there on Diego Garcia,
26:474,000 kilometers south of Iran.
26:50And if the order to strike Iran is given by Donald Trump, the first wave of attacks is going to come from Diego Garcia,
26:57as it has been for Iraq and Afghanistan in the past.
27:00But, you know, Gaurav, very quickly, as the panelists were talking about, the motivations of the three, you know,
27:06three personalities involved, if you give me a minute.
27:09Yeah.
27:09You know, the three people involved in this, very, very strong personalities.
27:14There's Donald Trump, right, U.S. president, complete six months in office today.
27:18And he has nothing to show for it.
27:20He has no win.
27:20No success story.
27:21He has no win.
27:22He promised to end all wars.
27:24He's not, no one's listening to him anymore.
27:26He wants a win with Iran.
27:28And that possibly is going to be to knock out Iran's nuclear weapons program.
27:32Benjamin Netanyahu started this war of attrition 20 months back after that horrific massacre of Israeli civilians on the 7th of October, 2023.
27:41And he is now reshaping the Middle East in a way that suits Israel.
27:44He's knocked out all of Iran's proxy actors.
27:47And today he's going for Iran.
27:49And they have an expression in Israel, Gaurav, we were repeatedly told this,
27:54mowing the grass, as you know.
27:55He may not succeed in regime change because it's almost impossible to change a regime in Iran, Gaurav.
28:01You have to have boots on the ground, like it was for Saddam Hussein in 2003.
28:05You have to find 160,000 soldiers to physically invade a country.
28:09And Iran is not a small country.
28:11It's not Kuwait.
28:12It's not Afghanistan.
28:13It's a massive country.
28:14It's 1.3 million square kilometers.
28:16Regime change from the air is next to impossible.
28:18The regime is too deeply entrenched, as our panelists have mentioned.
28:21And, of course, the last figure in all of this is Ayatollah Khamenei,
28:26the longest ruling leader in the Middle East, a spiritual leader, political leader,
28:3035 years in office.
28:32And he wants to continue the regime as the baton that's been passed to him from Ayatollah Khamenei.
28:40And he is literally there.
28:42He wants to ensure the survivor of his regime and of Iran's nuclear weapons program.
28:47That 90 meters, there's a reason that Fordow is built 90 meters below the soil, Gaurav.
28:53It is to ensure that Iranians at some point will have access to that enriched uranium that could give them the nuclear weapon.
29:00So, Adrian, whether it takes…
29:02I have to barge in because I have to go shelter.
29:06At least that's the alert that's coming in now.
29:08So, I have two minutes.
29:08But I would like to say that you're all talking about the seeming inevitability of a military operation.
29:15And I think you're forgetting conveniently or for whatever reason the entire political context of what is happening,
29:23both in Israel, in Iran, and the United States.
29:26In the United States, President Trump faces tremendous criticism, not from Democrats,
29:31who undoubtedly would have ordered this attack, but from the right wing of his own party.
29:35He is under tremendous political pressure not to do this.
29:39And I don't think getting into a land war in the Middle East, which is unwinnable, as your military expert just said, would be a win.
29:46I think Trump promised his constituency, the people who voted for him and gave him such a huge victory in the previous election,
29:53that he would not enter wars that would not strengthen America.
29:57I don't see this reasoning in any way threatened.
30:00As far as Netanyahu goes, Netanyahu has a failed war in Gaza.
30:04He's not reshaping the Middle East.
30:07He took out Hezbollah.
30:08He has not destroyed Hamas, despite promises given almost two years ago.
30:13He's going after Iran because this has been the Israeli strategy.
30:16Every time you fail, you expand the front line even farther.
30:20And Iran is as far as it goes.
30:22Now, granted, Israel carried out a brilliant tactical operation during the first 48 hours of its strike on Iran.
30:28After those 48 hours, Israel has been bombing targets haphazardly without any clear motivation.
30:34And you've got different government ministers saying different things about why Israel is doing what it's doing every day.
30:40The prime minister, when asked what the rationale of the operation is, simply winks and says, we're going to do what we have to do.
30:46And as far as Ayatollah Khamenei is concerned, yes, he's certainly at heart a hardliner, but Ayatollah Khamenei does not operate alone.
30:55The Islamic Republic doesn't speak with the voice of one man.
30:59And the assumption, again, that you're talking about a group of fanatic zealots is simply unfounded.
31:04Iran has been the pragmatic element in everything that surrounds this attack.
31:09There's no reason to assume that Iran will not do the same in the foreseeable future.
31:13And I apologize.
31:14I have to go.
31:15Ori, stay safe.
31:17We know air raid sirens are going off in Tel Aviv.
31:21Stay safe.
31:22But Adrian, do you agree?
31:24Because there are many across the world who say it's the Americans and the Israelis who are painting this picture about Iran being run by radical Islamist zealots.
31:35That's clearly not the case.
31:37It's an old civilization.
31:39It's an ancient civilization.
31:40That's actually following all norms and rules.
31:43There is no evidence, as they argue, of Israel building, of Iran building that bomb or being just one week away.
31:52But my bigger point is, in your appreciation, is America joining in, whether in the next 48 hours or the next two weeks?
31:59Well, let me address the bomb first, okay?
32:04If the Islamic Republic was allowed to reprocess and enrich as they want to for peaceful purposes, they would be the first country in the world that didn't produce a nuclear weapon.
32:16Do you trust them?
32:17Do you trust them not to do that?
32:19I don't.
32:20Okay, so that's fact number one.
32:23So despite whatever our previous guest had to say, it is a bunch of zealots here.
32:30Ali Khamenei is the sole decision maker.
32:33Okay?
32:34So going back to regime change, I'll touch on that.
32:37You're right.
32:38It can't be done from the sky.
32:39But you're discounting the 92 million Iranians that have been terrorized by this regime.
32:47And let's not say they are Iranian, this regime.
32:50They're not, okay?
32:52They are occupiers.
32:53They have held this country for 46 years in absolute bondage, raping, killing, hanging, public executions, blinding people, cutting out the Internet and slaughtering 1,500 people in 2019, which was actually more around 4,000 people.
33:15So I just want to touch on that.
33:16And yes, the Americans will get involved, but it's not, you know, our approach to foreign policy and military intervention has changed.
33:24And people need to wrap their heads around this.
33:26It's not going to be boots on the ground.
33:30It's like 20,000 to, you know, thousands upon thousands of boots on the ground.
33:35It's a limited footprint.
33:37It's using special forces with air support and collaborating with people on the ground, locals on the ground.
33:45Expecting people would rise, people would rise and people will ensure there's a regime change operation.
33:51Zach Tanvir, do you see that happen?
33:54You know, because Israel accuses Iran of war crimes.
33:58They say that they're only targeting military installations.
34:00Israel says they're only targeting military installations.
34:03Iran, on the other hand, is targeting civilians, including at hospitals.
34:07And when push comes to shove, when that massive intensification takes place, people in Iran will rise against the regime.
34:15What's your appreciation, sir?
34:18Godof, this has been the pattern of all the Islamist regimes, whether it's Iran or whether it's Pakistan.
34:24Pakistan, we have witnessed this after these operations endured that the Pakistan attacked the civilians.
34:31So the same thing is happening right now.
34:34The Iranian regime is attacking the civilian places, whereas Israel is targeting with the precision on the nuclear sites.
34:41So when it comes to the regime change, as I mentioned earlier, that a lot of people, as a fellow panelist mentioned, that 92 million people support the regime change.
34:52I don't think so. 92 million, all of them together support the regime change.
34:56Yes, we do agree that a lot of people, they want the regime change.
34:59They want the Pahalwi to come back.
35:01But a lot of them, in a huge percentage in Iran, they don't see Pahalwi to be the potential leader who can replace Ali Khamenei.
35:10And Ali Khamenei, he did not only invest in political goals, he invested in the spiritual goals.
35:14So we have seen that the people in Iran, they are well connected with the hierarchy.
35:21And Ali Khamenei, he controls from the missile industries, from the spacecraft, to even to the baby products.
35:28Ali Khamenei controls everything in Iran.
35:30So just getting him off and disposing him is not that easy, as we talk about.
35:37Sushant Sareen, how do you see the role of countries like China and Russia?
35:41There were reports that three Chinese planes, they took off from China.
35:45They were supposed to fly to Europe.
35:47But somewhere over Iran, they went off the radar.
35:50Apparently, they just landed at some military air base.
35:53Could they be delivering important military cargo to Iran?
35:58I don't think we can rule that out.
36:01Look, but I don't, I'm not quite sure if China or Russia, for that matter, are interested in seeing Iran becoming a nuclear weapon state.
36:11I don't think it's in their interest as well.
36:14I don't think it's in interest of anybody outside Iran to see Iran becoming a nuclear weapon state.
36:21I don't think the Arab states want it.
36:23I don't think Pakistan wants it.
36:24I would not even imagine Russia and China wanting it.
36:27But of course, Russia and China are important players and would want to exert some influence because, you know, currently they are, they've been completely sidelined.
36:38Nobody's listening to them.
36:39So, obviously, this is the biggest crisis internationally right now, unless, of course, you think Russia, Ukraine is still relevant for everybody.
36:47This is the biggest crisis.
36:48But can the Russians intervene?
36:50They're already caught up on one front.
36:51Can they open a second front against the United States?
36:54And if they were going to do something like that, then this war would expand much beyond what anybody wants.
37:00That is one.
37:02But I have to join issue with the gentleman who's gone back into the shelter.
37:07You know, this assumption that because somebody is a zealot, he cannot be pragmatic.
37:15Yes, he can be pragmatic.
37:16And yes, he can be rational.
37:18Okay.
37:19But he can also be a zealot.
37:21And he can also, and rationality is not a one-way street.
37:25What I might think is irrational for Iran to do, the Iranian regime might think that it's perfectly rational for them to do it.
37:34I might think it's irrational for them to open a front against the United States or against some other country.
37:39They might think that that is the best way to go forward.
37:42So, rationality is very subjective.
37:44There is no objective definition of rationality.
37:47Secondly, Gaurav, I think it's important to understand, Donald Trump is not going to be up for re-election next time.
37:53Okay.
37:54The pause which he is taking, and there will always be noise in countries like India, United States, Israel, all democracies have a lot of noise,
38:02including people who are supporters of a particular government will be taking potshots at it if there is a policy they don't necessarily agree with.
38:10But the problem for Donald Trump is going to be, he needs a quick in and out path.
38:17I don't think he's interested in getting caught up in a forever war.
38:20I don't think he wants to be enmeshed in Iran.
38:24But will just bombing one or two nuclear sites be enough?
38:29Will they be able to affect regime change?
38:31And if they are not, then where does it leave them?
38:34To say that, well, you know, you can send in special forces and they can, you know, tie up with other resistance groups.
38:41Those resistance groups are worth nothing to nobody.
38:43We know about it.
38:45Yes, they can carry out a, you know, odd terror.
38:48A raid or two or a sabotage.
38:50Yeah.
38:51But they are not an organized kind of a resistance movement which can then take on the entrenched forces.
38:58I'm not saying regime change is impossible.
39:00There could be regime change within the regime.
39:02I don't know.
39:03And maybe you get a somewhat more moderate kind of a bunch coming into power and then consolidating power.
39:11We don't know that.
39:11So, there are too many unknown unknowns.
39:14There are too many unknown unknowns as, you know, Mr. Rumsfeld had also put it.
39:18But Sandeep Unnithan, can the B-2 bombers with the GBU-57s take out the Fordo nuclear facility?
39:25And will it have to have repeat bombing runs and the pitfalls?
39:30What if a U.S. pilot is shot down over Iranian territory?
39:34Because then Trump's quick in, quick out victory parade will just go down the drain.
39:39Yeah, absolutely, Gaurav.
39:40And in fact, you know, I just wrote a piece on that, what Sushant mentioned.
39:44Trump is looking for a quick in and a quick out.
39:46And he wants that mission accomplished banner which he can unfurl and say that, look, Iran had this nuclear weapons program.
39:54Half a dozen American presidents tried to keep them away from it.
39:57But here I am, Donald Trump, I have ensured that Iran is never going to get a nuclear weapon.
40:01But, you know, coming back to your question about Fordo, it's possibly the most heavily fortified nuclear weapons installation, nuclear enrichment plant anywhere in the world.
40:11It is so deep.
40:11It's buried under a mountain.
40:13It started being built in 2006, just three years after Saddam Hussein's fall, where clearly the Iranian regime saw that it was possibly their turn next.
40:22And which is when they started drilling so deep under that mountain there.
40:26And it can only be taken out by that GBU-57 Gaurav.
40:31And they have to, as you mentioned, you have to fly repeat missions.
40:34You have to literally hit it with dozens of these weapons for it to, you know, make, to destroy that enrichment facility.
40:41Of course, the Israelis are talking about, you know, mounting an Operation Jonathan kind of raid on that site.
40:48I don't put it past them.
40:50They're completely capable of carrying out, completely out of the box, unthinkable special forces missions.
40:55But that's also going to be really tough, given how heavily fortified this Fordo nuclear enrichment plant is.
41:03It's near the Iranian holy site of Qom.
41:05It's just about a few hours north of Qom, and there is heavy IRGC presence over there.
41:11It's heavily guarded.
41:12And as you mentioned, it's guarded by S-300 missiles, Gaurav.
41:15That was the place where Iran first positioned its S-300 missile batteries as soon as they got them from Russia.
41:21That tells you how critical Fordo is to Iran's nuclear ambitions.
41:26It may not produce the weapons now, but somewhere in the future, some couple of years down the line,
41:31it could give them those enriched uranium for those nuclear weapons.
41:36And that is the reason why Trump wants to come in and knock out that site, and the Israelis want him to do that as well, Gaurav.
41:42And yet, Adrian, that's the biggest threat, even for Donald Trump, because some reports indicate,
41:49what if, you know, that's the known unknown and the unknown unknowns that I want to come to.
41:54So, what if a U.S. pilot is shot down and captured in Iran?
41:59What would that result in?
42:01What if U.S. interests in the Middle East are targeted?
42:04Is there also this apprehension that this could lead to a wider escalation across West Asia?
42:09Well, I do believe that if we carry out a strike on Fordo, which I do believe is coming,
42:17then our, you know, troops in the region, any type of personnel in the region, they're going to be targeted.
42:26I think that's going into Trump's calculations here and why he's given this too weak type of window
42:32is to try and get, you know, non-essential personnel out of the area and out of the region.
42:39Now, whether we can be successful with the, you know, Fordo, I do believe, you know, it's a big question.
42:50And as your military guest brought up, great analysis on this.
42:57The one thing I would say is that I really don't have much faith in the S-300 systems.
43:04I don't think they're going to have the ability to take out a stealth bomber.
43:08They performed very poorly during this engagement.
43:14If you look at the October response from the Israelis, they took out an S-300 at Natanz that was guarding that site.
43:22And the regime didn't even know it was hit until after it was hit.
43:26So they didn't even see it coming in.
43:28So the S-300s have been relatively ineffective.
43:32The Israelis, we have to remember, they've been operating and taking out all their anti-aircraft systems.
43:37So, you know, are the Russians shipping more in?
43:42I don't know.
43:43But their effectiveness is going to be, I think, limited at type against any type of American intervention.
43:49Because you got to think about the stealth bomber and how it operates.
43:52And, Zach Tanvir, should America come and all indications are whether it happens in the next 48 hours or it happens in the next one week or two, as President Trump puts it, would it lead to a wider escalation across the region?
44:07Will the Islamic world stand with Iran or abandon it?
44:11As many argue, most of them have already abandoned it.
44:14If U.S. will get involved, Pete Hexeth has already mentioned yesterday that they have prepared everything to get involved and they're waiting for Donald Trump's green signal.
44:29So once Donald Trump says, go, and they'll be going ahead.
44:32But when it comes to the question of whether the Islamic nations will be standing with Iran, to be honest, from the diplomatic point of view, the Islamic nations are supporting or showing their solidarity with Iran because it's one of the biggest nations in the Middle East.
44:48But what we have seen the pattern in the Arab world is that they are silently and quietly watching the events unfold because the Syria, the Yemen, the Lebanon and Iraq, they have seen the dangers of Iran, the Iranian tentacles.
45:06They have experienced that bloodshed.
45:09So obviously, they want a good Middle East where the Iranian regime stops the expansionist agenda.
45:15Okay, but Sushant said, when you look at that map and we've put it up together for our viewers to understand, the entire support system that Iran had, from Hamas to Houthis to Hezbollah to the Iraqi Shia militia, everyone, you know, to Syria, entire support system has collapsed.
45:36Iran's isolated.
45:38How long can Iran last in your view?
45:41I think Iran can last.
45:43Let's not write off Iran.
45:44But yes, the fact that Hamas, Hezbollah, you know, the Syrian regime, all these have, you know, disappeared or have been severely degraded, left open an opportunity for Israel to go and attack Iran directly.
45:59Had that not happened, then you can imagine the kind of pressure Israel would have been if Hezbollah was still as potent an organization as it was till about an year back.
46:10It would have been a completely different scenario.
46:12Secondly, I think let's also understand, you know, when you ask about what the other Islamic or Arab states in particular in the region are going to do.
46:23Look, they have their own interest in not seeing Iran become very powerful, number one, and certainly not become a nuclear weapon state.
46:31But I think they are going to be walking a tightrope on this because there is the street sentiment, the Muslim, Arab or Islamic street sentiment, and there are the imperatives of the state.
46:44And I think there is a contradiction between the two or a dichotomy between the two.
46:50The street might be wanting something, but the state interest dictates something else.
46:55And it is going to be incumbent on all the regimes in the region to walk that tightrope.
47:02So you will hear all sorts of condemnations, all sorts of, you know, meetings and all sorts of plans to bring about peace.
47:11I would be extremely surprised if any country, including the Pakistanis who are flying high and, you know, kicking up a racket, any of these countries doing anything, you know, at an operational level, which interrupts with what the Israelis or what the Americans could be doing in the coming days.
47:33I don't see that happening.
48:03You know, Pakistanis are the most treacherous people in the world.
48:15They will ditch everybody if they can make a fast buck out of it.
48:19So I am not saying, it's not only about the Pakistanis, but please remember, the sentiment on the street is Islam versus a non-Islamic power, right?
48:31Like, Islam versus Jews backed by Christians is the narrative they're building.
48:36And when it becomes a Shia versus Sunni conflict, it's a different sentiment, probably.
48:40But when it becomes an Islamic or a Muslim state like Iran versus a Jewish and a Christian state like the US and Iran, sorry, Israel,
48:55Israel, then the sentiment is very different.
48:58So that is what I'm talking about.
49:00I would imagine that the street sentiment in even a hardline Sunni states would be right now against Israel and against the United States,
49:12not in favor of them attacking Iran.
49:17The only people who probably will support the attacks on Iran are dissident groups within Iran,
49:24maybe dissidents or some religious minorities, sectarian minorities within Iran who have a beef with the Islamic regime in Iran.
49:36They might be welcoming the discomfiture in which the Islamic regime is right now.
49:42But I don't think anybody else would feel the same way.
49:45Zach, before I bring in Sandeep and the last 30 seconds I have on this part of the show,
49:49Zach, would Iran be very disappointed with Pakistan with a general like Asim Munir,
49:55who's virtually served Iran on a platter as some of these memes seem to indicate to Donald Trump?
50:03Zach Tanveer?
50:04Zach Tanveer?
50:06Yeah. Yeah, you listen to me.
50:09So Pakistan has this, yeah, it has a history of betrayal and treachery.
50:14And we have seen that in 2001 and 2003 when Pakistan was hosting United States against Taliban.
50:21But at the same time, Pakistan was also getting the Mujahideen on the Pakistani soil and under the ice and under the vigilance of ISI.
50:28The Mujahideen were getting trained and they were butchering and they were killing the U.S. soldiers.
50:33So Pakistan has been playing these double games for a long time and nobody trusts Pakistan.
50:38And as I say every time that Pakistan hosts the rental business of militia as well as the military.
50:43So you need militia, Pakistan will gonna give you for some bucks and if you need military, Pakistan will gonna give you for some bucks.
50:49So Pakistan has no stable principle on which the countries can rely on.
50:54Okay, to all my guests, many thanks for joining me.
50:58I want to get you Pakistan's big admission on the Operation Sindhu damage.
51:02Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister and their Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, he's confirmed India's two important attacks.
51:08Two air bases were attacked Noor Khan in Ravalpindi and Shorecoat Air Base.
51:12And then he gives out those details, how they were planning to attack India at 4.30, but at 2.30 India pre-empted them, hit them, Saudi Arabia called them and they said, yeah, yeah, we're ready for a ceasefire.
51:22Listen in.
51:23We knew it, they knew it, the whole world knew it.
51:35For weeks, Pakistan denied what was frankly undeniable.
51:40Now they have become forced to admit it.
51:42In a stunning confession, Pakistan's Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar has acknowledged that India struck deep inside Pakistani territory, targeting the Noor Khan and Shorecoat Air bases during Operation Sindhu.
51:57Dar, speaking on Jio News, revealed that India's BrahMos missiles even hit Ravalpindi airport, catching Pakistan off guard just as it was preparing to retaliate.
52:08India's precision strikes were carried out on May 7th, just days after the deadly terror attack,
52:38in Pehlgaam, that killed 26 civilians.
52:43What Islamabad once dismissed as propaganda is now officially verified.
52:49Satellite images of the Noor Khan Air Base confirm visible damage, proof of India's deep precision strike.
52:57Colonel Sophia Qureshi and Wing Commander Vyomika Singh also confirmed that several air bases inside Pakistan
53:04were successfully hit after India's retaliatory strike on May 9th.
53:09Over the past few days, as we have seen, Pakistan all has suffered very heavy and unsustainable losses after it has given us an unprovoked attack on our installations.
53:23It has suffered losses in both land and air.
53:28There has been an extensive damage to the crucial Pakistani air bases like Skardu, Sargoda, Jacobabad and Bolari.
53:36Earlier, Pakistani Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif had also conceded that India launched BrahMos strikes,
53:44confirming hits across multiple provinces, including an airport in Ravalpindi.
53:49We on 9th and 10th night, we decided to respond in a measured fashion to Indian aggression.
54:05But before that hour reached, India again launched missile attacks, BrahMos, and hit Pakistan's various provinces,
54:22including airport in Ravalpindi and other places.
54:25Now only with Dhar's latest comments, it is officially accepted that Noor Khan Air Base, located in Ravalpindi,
54:34was also struck and damaged by Indian missiles.
54:38Operation Sindhur wasn't just a military strike.
54:41It was a message that India will hit back, swiftly, sharply and strategically.
54:47And while Pakistan cannot stop it, they can no longer even deny it.
54:54Bureau Report, India Today.
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