Reform UK surges as Labour and the Tories lose ground

Could Nigel Farage go on to be our next Prime Minister or is recent Reform UK polls success more of a protest?

Transcript

00:00Is it a sort of a protest vote or is it sort of a protest against the current system? I think so.

00:06I think people are disillusioned and, dare I say it, reform are an overtly populist party

00:12and of course people sort of welcome that because of course what they want are sort of apparently

00:16simple solution to what are very very complex problems. Now of course I can't sort of predict

00:21what a sort of a government, if there were one, under Nigel Farage would look like but it's

00:25probably going to sort of try and do radical things but probably end up being more of the same.

00:30But you know people are sort of disillusioned with their loss, they feel they're getting poorer

00:35and reform promise as a certain sort of Donald Trump who of course is another version of Nigel

00:40Raj that they're going to get better by becoming more isolationists and of course immigration is

00:45still going to be the sort of the big issue come the next election I predict. Farage's strategy has

00:51combined anti-establishment messaging with high profile media appearances giving the party

00:56disproportionate visibility. While policy detail remains limited the emotional appeal of reform's

01:03platform has translated into votes. Yeah they're leading in their pinpoles, we're four years away

01:09or so probably a bit less because I suspect the sort of next election will be in May 2029. There's a lot

01:16of waters going to go under a lot of bridges before we get to that point. Whether it'll still be there at

01:20that time who knows but all we can deal with is the here and now and undoubtedly and I sort of make

01:25this sort of quite stress this Labour got a sort of so-called loveless majority you know a third of

01:30the votes cast in the election sort of something like 20 percent of the electorate but hey you know

01:35that's the electoral system they got in but of course their supporters sort of hemorrhage faster than

01:40you can sort of say sort of landslide and indeed we've had the sort of the situation where the

01:45sort of conservatives will they sort of recover probably not as we sort of see it at the moment

01:50so you know they'll struggle to sort of do something. What we are most likely to get I think

01:54at the sort of the next election is no overall majority for any particular party and then we get

02:00into the whole sort of uncertainty of sort of coalitions and who will sort of do deals with the

02:04sort of the uh the reform party under Nigel Farage. I can pretty much guarantee it won't be the Labour

02:09party I think that would be a bridge too far for them. I think what we'll probably have if I make

02:14a prediction is a new Conservative leader by then who may be more willing to sort of to do that but

02:20of course anybody who sort of makes definite prediction what this result will be in four years

02:24time is uh is deluded because so much can change as we've sort of seen in recent times.