00:03I think a lot of questions are being asked, especially when it comes to the threat of nuclear war,
00:09which could possibly be on the line here.
00:12What are these dangers?
00:14Well, again, you know, it's been on the agenda for many years.
00:20Now, of course, we are in a specific situation, specific conflict.
00:25And the case of Israel is particular because Israel is a well-known possessor of nuclear weapons already for decades.
00:39And it has had a monopoly in the Middle East because initially it felt that it was surrounded by hostile countries.
00:49And it felt that due to its size and its population, it needed to rely on nuclear weapons to defend itself in case of aggression.
00:59Now, we know in practice that it doesn't work.
01:04Israel has been attacked by Arab countries, by Iraq, now by Iran in response to Israeli attacks.
01:15And we can see that nuclear weapons don't bring stability, don't bring security.
01:22And this is the paradox that Israel wants to prevent Iran from acquiring a weapon that it considers legitimate for its own security.
01:32And Iran, you know, disregards this fear or deterrence by Israel by, you know, now attacking, responding to Israeli attacks with military strikes,
01:50which, again, at the same time is a paradox because eventually Iran may cross the threshold that it wanted to remain under.
02:01By developing nuclear weapons with what is left, it's probably being protected from its nuclear program and therefore becoming a nuclear country,
02:17although it doesn't believe in the effectiveness of nuclear deterrence.
02:23So, again, it's a good lesson in terms of theory and, you know, the difference between theory and practice.
02:35You know, you have the realists that believe that states only protect their own security through force,
02:43but then you have the security dilemma because if one country fears the offensive capabilities of another country,
02:55it will build up its own defense, which, you know, Israel claims to have done.
03:00But then it raises the fear of other countries that fear that this is offensive,
03:07and therefore they will build up their own defense.
03:11So this is where, you know, nuclear weapons come.
03:14And now when you hear people saying, you know, referring to the example of Ukraine,
03:21that if Ukraine had kept its, and I say its, of course, in inverted commas,
03:27because it never belonged to them and they were never able to control them,
03:33if it had kept these weapons that it got rid of, transferred them to Russia
03:39in exchange for security assurances, it would not have been invaded.
03:43Now, if you apply this logic, so probably it will also apply to Iran.
03:50You know, Iran now has been attacked on a large scale,
03:54and most probably it will now declare that the only way to defend itself is to acquire nuclear weapons.
