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Global oil prices rise amid escalations in tensions between Israel and Iran
ABC NEWS (Australia)
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6/17/2025
Energy security expert at the Brookings Institute Samantha Gross says oil prices usually factor in supply uncertainty.
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00:00
We saw prices jump a bit to factor in a bit more risk, but the kind of risks that you
00:07
spoke about in your intro, about the Strait of Hormuz potentially being disrupted, are
00:12
not priced in right now. Because at this moment, markets are well supplied. It's just there's
00:18
definitely traders are on edge about what might possibly happen based on the conflict
00:23
that we're seeing.
00:24
From what you've seen, would you conclude it's not Israel's goal to rattle international
00:29
markets?
00:31
I don't think it's Israel's goal to rattle international markets. They have attacked oil
00:37
facilities in Iran, but they're primary facilities that serve the Iranian public. They're not
00:43
facilities that are focused on exports. However, the real question for markets going forward
00:48
is how Iran will react to the reaction to the Israel attacks. And will they do something
00:55
to interrupt shipments, not just not of their own, but of the other Gulf producers because
01:00
of their control of the Strait of Hormuz?
01:03
So how likely would you say these actions are on Iran's part?
01:08
You know, it's a really difficult question. It's not something that anyone wants to see
01:13
happen, likely including the Iranians. But it's the kind of action they might take if they
01:18
really feel like they're pressed against the wall. Because this is the kind of action that could
01:24
really draw more countries into the conflict. If they were to disrupt shipping through the Strait of
01:30
Hormuz, they would be disrupting shipping from the other Gulf producers, like the United Arab
01:35
Emirates, or Saudi Arabia. And there's already not a lot of love lost between Iran and those countries,
01:42
countries, plus the impact that it would have on global markets, on the global economy. This could
01:48
really widen the conflict in a way that could be problematic for Iran. But it's the kind of thing
01:54
they might take if they don't feel like they have other options.
01:57
If it's widened, if this conflict is drawn out, will that affect risk calculations and ultimately prices?
02:05
Oh, absolutely. I mean, the real question is how long this conflict goes on,
02:10
how deeply it's felt in Iran, and what they feel like they need to do in order to get out of the
02:17
conflict. Blocking oil shipments is the kind of thing that they would only do if they really felt
02:22
like they didn't have other good options, because it has such severe consequences. But it's hard to
02:28
say what might happen if they really do feel like they're in a bad way.
02:32
Finally, with what we're seeing with these blows being traded, and then oil prices retreating,
02:38
could the markets be underestimating the extent of the current crisis?
02:43
Well, it's really hard to say. I mean, it depends on what happens over the coming days.
02:49
Markets will react very quickly if they see greater risk building up. So they're building
02:53
in the risk that they see now, but that could change rapidly if the situation changes.
02:58
Samantha Grose, Director of Energy Security at the Brookings Institute,
03:02
joining us there from Washington. Thank you for speaking with us.
03:05
My pleasure.
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