- 6/2/2025
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00:00On this, the eve of the 1992 Farnborough Airshow, Europe's air forces and governments are locked
00:12in a heated debate, a conceptual dogfight, over the future of this aircraft. It won't
00:18be flying at the show, however, since, although accurate in every detail, the aircraft this
00:23pilot is sitting in is only a wooden model of a plane that has yet to take to the air.
00:27A model of a 21st century Spitfire, known to the four nations who are building it as the
00:33European Fighter Aircraft, or Eurofighter.
00:44At the British Aerospace Factory in Wharton, just outside Blackpool, the second of seven
00:48flying prototypes is nearing completion. Like some hugely complex plastic kit, the sections
00:55being assembled here have come from all over Europe. The tail and the centre fuselage were
00:59built in Germany. Part of the rear fuselage was built in Spain, while another part was
01:05built in Italy. Italy also built the left wing, but not the right. That was British Aerospace's
01:11job, along with the forward fuselage and nose.
01:15Amazingly, it is all knitting seamlessly together, and the engineers here are confident that it
01:24will soon take the place of its wooden double on the runway threshold, and will fly before
01:28Christmas.
01:30It has taken nearly ten years of development, and over five billion pounds to get this far,
01:37and still the Eurofighter is fully seven years away from entering squadron service.
01:44But even as the last few systems are being fitted onto the British prototype by specialist technicians
01:49drawn from each of the partner countries, the Eurofighter is already running into unforeseen
01:54turbulence.
01:57Political turbulence.
02:00Of the original four-nation requirement for 765 aircraft, both the RAF and the German Luftwaffe
02:07said that they each wanted 250.
02:11Earlier this summer, however, Germany's politicians declared their intention to pull out of the project
02:16once the development phase was over in 1999.
02:20At a stroke, the decision has put 20,000 jobs in Germany's aerospace industry in jeopardy,
02:25and could still have major implications for the 40,000 workers in Britain's aerospace industry
02:30too.
02:34Why the change of heart?
02:36Because, say the Germans, since it was first conceived in the chill light of the Cold War in
02:411983, the need for an ultra-high-tech Spitfire has quite simply gone away.
02:46The NATO nightmare has passed us by.
02:53The horror of that nightmare is appallingly easy to describe.
02:59It's a scenario in which the enemy always wears a Soviet uniform, and the tanks and armoured
03:04ground forces always pour over the Eastern European horizon.
03:09The Soviet Air Force too is heading west.
03:14The bombers streak across the North Sea, barely minutes from the airfields, power stations,
03:17ports and radar sites which are their targets.
03:215 miles in front of the bombers are a few of the latest long-range escorts, the supremely
03:28capable Sukhoi 27s, known to NATO as flankers.
03:34As this unique archive of an exercise held deep within what used to be the Soviet Union chillingly
03:40demonstrates, Central Europe would, meanwhile, be getting seriously unhealthy.
03:44Shorter range bombers and ground attack aircraft would be in the air over the battlefield, again escorted by fighters, and again among some pretty ancient 50s and 60s aircraft would be several squadrons of the Soviet Union's more modern dogfighter, the MiG 29 Fulcrum.
03:51Stationed at front-line bases in East Germany, these short-range fighters would be in the air, the MiG 29 Fulcrum, the MiG 29 Fulcrum, and again among some pretty ancient 50s and 60s aircraft would be several squadrons of the Soviet Union's more modern dogfighter, the MiG 29 Fulcrum.
04:16Stationed at front-line bases in East Germany, these short-range fighters would be among the first to greet the NATO air forces.
04:28Within minutes, or so the nightmare scenario goes, the skies over Central Europe would have become a chaotic melee of spinning and swirling aircraft, dodging missiles, dodging each other,
04:39and trying to figure out who's who and who's where, from the increasingly confused electronic picture of an unfolding Armageddon.
04:46The Central Front in Europe would have been a very high-tech operation, lots of electromagnetic-type warfare going on, some very sophisticated surface-to-air missiles around, a very high threat to use that jargon, high-threat environment to fly airplanes around it, and some very capable airplanes on the other side that have got to be shot down.
05:09It was becoming clear, as the 80s dawned, that the traditional NATO nightmare of the 60s and 70s, which had been characterised by the overwhelming quantity of Soviet weaponry, was being transformed by the steady addition of technological capability and quality.
05:24The new MiG-29s, which were entering service in 1983, could not only climb at 12 miles a minute and cruise at over two times the speed of sound, but were also equipped with infrared sensors in their noses, and laser rangefinders for their guns.
05:45And although, at that time, the Soviet Union's fighter designs lacked the sophisticated computerized flight controls, which were being introduced into Western aircraft, that lack was amply counterbalanced by highly advanced aerodynamics.
06:06One of the designers of the MiG-29s said recently that they began by perfecting the ideal wing for a fighter. No more than that. Just the wing.
06:20They then added a couple of engines, a nose and a tail, to see how much the ideal wing's performance was compromised.
06:27Countless visits to the wind tunnel later, this is what they came up with.
06:31A short-range fighter so manoeuvrable that in the later years of Glasnost and Perestroika, the experienced jet pilots who saw it perform at airshows could barely believe their eyes.
06:42Well, having watched the airplane fly at the Farmer Airshow and then at the Paris Airshow, it was self-evident that this aircraft had this ability to abruptly manoeuvre and pitch in a way that the sort of aircraft I'd flown had not.
07:00And I was extremely interested to know whether that was a difficult thing to do in the airplane or whether it was apparently as easy and safe as it looked.
07:12I talked to the McCoyan people and said I wanted to assess its low speed handling qualities and they were very happy to show those off.
07:21Human nature. They're proud of it. It's good. It was world class. And it was indeed. It was the easiest jet aeroplane to manoeuvre at low speed that I have ever flown.
07:32I mean, it was more like a training Second World War biplane, you know, in terms of that flexibility and ease of doing manoeuvres.
07:42Quite unlike any other jet aeroplane I've flown, it was so safe and so straightforward to manoeuvre at high angles of attack.
07:51Just ten years prior to John Farley's unprecedented test drive in 1990, military intelligence analysts in the West would have sold their grannies for a chance to learn at first hand how the MiG designers had achieved such easily controllable low speed manoeuvrability.
08:06But it wasn't just the MiG which could tumble around the sky with such manifest agility.
08:15Intelligence reports were suggesting that the same aerodynamic skills which had been brought to bear on the MiG had also found their way into the design of another new generation interceptor fighter.
08:27The Sukhoi Su-27 Flanka.
08:34Like the MiG, this supersonic all-weather interceptor fighter had first taken to the air in 1977.
08:40But unlike the MiG, this was a beast with exceptionally long range.
08:44Leningrad to Grimsby and back on one tank of fuel.
08:48This was also the fighter which the long range NATO interceptors could expect to meet.
09:00And its performance was therefore crucially interesting.
09:07Like the MiG, here was an aircraft whose manoeuvrability defied description.
09:11Nowadays at air shows, this aircraft routinely seems to achieve the impossible, flying at extraordinary angles.
09:23But did such aerobatic stunts ever have any real military value?
09:27John Farley again.
09:29John Farley.
09:30This angle of attack of course is the difference between the direction an airplane is pointing and the direction it is travelling.
09:36I mean, I hate waving my hands about but when you see an airplane go by like that you know.
09:41Its pointing upwards and its travelling horizontally.
09:44We traditionally see that in a slow pass.
09:47That angle, that's the angle of attack that the airplane is at.
09:50Now if you are fighting another airplane, it is likely that you will have roughly forward facing armament in your fighter.
09:58and it's likely that he will have forward-facing argument in his.
10:01And so the aim of the game, of course, is to get the other chap in front of you.
10:05If he's in front of you, the bad guy, he can't shoot you,
10:08and you have an opportunity to shoot him,
10:10assuming you can get your aiming solution good enough.
10:14But if, on the other hand, he's round the other side of a circle,
10:18you're pointing one way, he's pointing another.
10:20And he can't shoot you, you can't shoot him, it's a standoff.
10:23And so you're manoeuvring to try and get behind the other guy.
10:26You feel very safe and relaxed when he's on the other side of a circle.
10:29And that circle need not necessarily be in the horizontal.
10:32Of course, it can be in any plane.
10:34It's still a circle so far as air combat manoeuvring is concerned.
10:38If this chap, though, has the ability to momentarily point his aeroplane
10:43just for a second or two in a totally different direction,
10:47perhaps up to 90 degrees from that in which he's travelling,
10:50are you going to be relaxed in close combat,
10:52knowing that this chap can wipe out a large angular difference
10:55very quickly and get a short burst off at you.
10:59Now, there will be tremendous disadvantages for him doing that,
11:02like he will slow down, he'll lose a lot of energy
11:05and he'll be a sort of sitting duck for your mate who may be with you.
11:10But is that any consolation to you if he shot you down in the process?
11:14Which is, after all, what this gruesome game is all about.
11:18At around the time that the Sukhoi flankers and MiG fulcrums
11:22were rolling off the Soviet production lines in the early 80s,
11:25the NATO air forces were almost entirely equipped with American aircraft.
11:31And that wasn't just because there were 31 US air force squadrons
11:35based in Germany at the time.
11:36It was simply that many of Europe's air forces had bought American technology,
11:40much of which had survived the test of combat in an earlier encounter, Vietnam.
11:54The principal fighter aircraft of that era was the McDonnell Douglas Phantom,
11:57which first flew in 1958.
11:59Like every fighter plane ever designed,
12:04this aircraft ended up spending a lot of its time firing its guns at targets on the ground
12:09and dropping bombs somewhere in the vicinity of the enemy.
12:22But it could also hold its own as an air superiority fighter,
12:25and by the early 70s it had entered service with Britain's navy and air force,
12:29as well as a number of other European air forces,
12:32such as Germany's Luftwaffe, where they are still in service to this day.
12:43By the early 80s, however, Europe's aerospace industry
12:46was developing a penchant for collaborative ventures.
12:49Concorde, the Anglo-French Jaguar, the Airbus civil airliner,
12:54and perhaps most significantly, this, the Tornado,
12:58in which Germany, Italy and Britain had all been involved.
13:01But the Tornado was never intended to be an air superiority fighter.
13:06Its engines were designed for endurance and economy,
13:11rather than rapid response or brute power,
13:13and its mission was ground attack and long-range interception.
13:17It isn't a particularly agile beast. Very few bombers are.
13:26But back in 1983, what the air forces of Europe were clamouring for
13:30was a dogfighter to beat the MiGs and Sukhois of the Soviet air force.
13:34For many years, the Royal Air Force has wanted an agile fighter.
13:38The problem, of course, is affordability and looking for partners
13:41and getting the right atmosphere.
13:43But the European fighter itself started as an idea, an outline target,
13:49is the former word for it, in about 1983.
13:52Clearly, at that stage, the main threat was perceived to be the Warsaw Pact,
13:57which means USSR aircraft at that stage.
14:01And one looks at the classic and highly successful combat aircraft designers
14:05like Mikoyan and Sukhoi, and one says, what are they doing?
14:09And I suppose anyone would look at the aircraft out there now
14:15and say, one of the aircraft you've surely got to be capable of matching
14:19is the Flanka, the Sukhoi 27.
14:21It's a very good aeroplane, and one wants to be able to meet and better that.
14:27After much deliberation and debate,
14:29this was the design the five European collaborators agreed to develop
14:33to meet that Soviet challenge.
14:36A single-seat, twin-engined delta wing,
14:39with a pair of four planes, known as canards, just ahead of the cockpit.
14:44As the aircraft took shape in the silicon-chip imagination
14:49of the manufacturer's computers,
14:51the designers were figuring out not only how to build the Eurofighter,
14:54but how to fly it.
14:57Every square inch of the structure was subjected to the varying stresses
15:02that each phase of flight would generate,
15:04and later that data would then be verified against the actual results
15:07recorded on a sort of flying laboratory,
15:10known as the Experimental Aircraft Project,
15:13or EAP.
15:20A combination of experimental design and bits of old tornado,
15:24funded by industry as well as by the British government,
15:27to test out the new technologies that might be incorporated into the Eurofighter.
15:35Armed with the data acquired from each flight,
15:37the designers would be able to return to the drawing board
15:40to see whether the complex calculations of air flow, pressures and forces
15:44that the computer had come up with bore any relation to reality.
15:48But before the EAP could fly,
15:53the numerous computer designs and configurations had to be tested
15:57in the relative safety of the terrestrial wind tunnels.
16:00different wing shapes,
16:07twin tails,
16:09different canard positions.
16:11Every possible permutation of the Eurofighter's design
16:14was hurled into the face of the artificial hurricanes
16:17that can be routinely summoned up here.
16:19But in the mid-80s, other storms were buffeting the five-nation Eurofighter project.
16:28No other government, it seemed, wanted to contribute to the cost of the EAP technology demonstrator.
16:34No one seemed able to agree on an ideal weight for the fighter.
16:37They couldn't even agree on a name for it.
16:40So settled on the European fighter aircraft, EFA.
16:44And then finally, after protracted discussions,
16:47one of the five partners in the EFA project, France,
16:50declined to continue if she couldn't be the leader.
16:56The computers, meanwhile, continue to fly the imaginary airplane through imaginary air flows,
17:01while the one and only EAP began to test the systems that had been built into it.
17:08Powered by two tornado engines,
17:10the EAP eventually flew for 195 hours,
17:14probing the limits of low-speed and high-speed flight,
17:17verifying in reality what the computers had said would happen,
17:21such as how shock waves would form around its nose as it blasted through the sound barrier.
17:31But the EAP was more than just some kind of flying wind tunnel.
17:38One of the questions it was designed to answer was,
17:41how much of the future EFA's load-bearing structure could be made from new lightweight materials,
17:46such as carbon fibre laminates?
17:50The technology of carbon fibre composites is now fairly well known,
17:53and has been used in civil airliners and Formula One racing cars for years.
18:01Basically, sheets or strips of resin-impregnated carbon fibre are laid down,
18:07one on top of the other in a precise order,
18:09and oriented in a carefully predetermined direction,
18:12and then cured in an oven.
18:20High-tech plywood.
18:24The strength of any part depends on how many layers you use,
18:27and where you put them.
18:29Nothing, it seems, could be simpler, lighter,
18:31or apparently more cost-effective.
18:42You can lay up carbon fibre into shapes,
18:45which, if you were to make them by old-fashioned methods of metal bashing,
18:49would mean a large number of people beating out shapes,
18:53and then riveting them together, or welding them together,
18:56to form one complex shape.
18:58Very labour-intensive, very expensive.
19:00With carbon fibre composite techniques,
19:03you can make very complex shapes, very cheaply,
19:06and reduce the weight.
19:07And that's a revolution, I think.
19:08Perhaps the single most important thing in EFA technology.
19:12By combining the weight savings of carbon fibre technology
19:19with other new materials, such as aluminium lithium alloys,
19:22and devising new construction methods
19:24that can minimise the amounts of materials required,
19:26EFA is claimed to be 30% lighter
19:29than it would have been if manufactured in more conventional ways.
19:32Not surprisingly, weight savings of that order
19:35translate directly into increases in performance and manoeuvrability.
19:39But weight is only half of the equation.
19:45Engine thrust is the other important variable.
19:48And for EFA, the European consortium reached the early decision
19:51to design an entirely new engine.
19:54But although it too will incorporate a fistful of technological firsts,
19:58there are still some techniques of engine manufacture,
20:01which are slightly older.
20:03We make turbine blades today almost exclusively
20:10by what's called the lost wax process.
20:13That's a process that goes back many years.
20:15Indeed, the Chinese used it over 3,000 years ago.
20:19What you do is you make a model of the blade in wax.
20:23You then coat the wax with a ceramic shell, melt the wax out.
20:27That gives you a perfect female mould in which you then create
20:32an exact replica of the wax pattern in metal.
20:38Now that, in terms of turbine technology,
20:40has been around for probably something like 20 or 30 years.
20:44What we've been doing over the last 10 years
20:46is developing the way in which the solidification takes place
20:50of that molten metal.
20:53We actually grow selectively one crystal
20:57to cover the whole of the blade shape.
21:00The advantage of that is that you get the maximum strength
21:04then from the material,
21:06because all of those interfaces between individual crystals
21:09is actually a source of weakness in the material.
21:12So it's a very much stronger blade,
21:15therefore a much longer life
21:17or a higher temperature capability
21:19that you can get from that self-same material.
21:24Like the aircraft it will power,
21:25the IFA engine is also a collaborative venture.
21:29Curiously, it is here in the anticipated design requirements
21:32of the engine
21:33that the differing combat requirements for IFA
21:35are most readily apparent.
21:40We start from all four nations wanting a fighter airplane
21:43optimised for air-to-air combat.
21:45But if you look at the particular threat scenarios
21:48that at least existed at the time the design was put together.
21:51In the case of the United Kingdom
21:53we have a very large area of the northern coast to defend
21:58and the way that is done is to have the fighter airplanes airborne
22:03and therefore they have to have very low fuel consumption
22:07whilst they're doing what we call combat air patrol.
22:10They then have to accelerate and intercept any would-be intruder.
22:14That contrasts with the German situation
22:17which at the time we're talking about
22:18of course we still had East Germany as part of the Warsaw Pact
22:21and West Germany therefore had to have an airplane
22:24that they could scramble very quickly
22:26and they were looking for the very shortest time
22:28of intercept from ground to mission.
22:31And while the designers wrestle to fit the engine
22:36to those two widely differing combat requirements
22:39as well as to the plane itself
22:41others are wrestling to strike that critical balance
22:43between using proven technology
22:45and taking a gamble on innovation.
22:48With a combat engine such as EJ200
22:53which is being designed for service during the next century
22:57it's important that we don't just rely on yesterday's technology
23:00therefore we have a lot of state-of-the-art technology within the engine
23:05however it's also important to ensure that we have a reliable engine
23:08therefore there is a combination of both basic or current technology
23:13and futuristic technology.
23:15You don't just go for innovative technology because it's there
23:19any more than you reject now technology because it's old
23:22you're striking a balance between the risk and the proven quality.
23:26In the case of IFA we had a tremendous advantage
23:29of a whole series of technology demonstrators
23:32and indeed we even had a flying vehicle
23:35the experimental aircraft program
23:36and that takes a great deal of the risk of these technology leaps
23:40out of the development of IFA
23:42carbon fiber technology, new construction methods,
23:45delta canards, unstable airplanes, high speed flight control systems
23:48that sort of thing.
23:50We're not complacent about the risk
23:52but we know a great deal more because of the technology demonstrators.
23:59Shortly after the EAP technology demonstrator had made its last flight in May of 1991
24:04the House of Commons Accounts Committee calculated that its use had saved the IFA project
24:09around 850 million pounds in development costs.
24:13And although it was never intended to be an IFA prototype
24:16there had never been any question what this demonstrator was demonstrating
24:20combat capable supersonic and subsonic maneuverability against the Soviet threat.
24:26But towards the end of 1989 something happened which was to call the entire project into question.
24:34Something unexpected, unthinkable even.
24:39The threat appeared to be crumbling away before our very eyes.
24:47Not only the Berlin Wall but the Iron Curtain itself was being dismantled.
24:55The Warsaw Pact was quite simply disintegrated
24:58and familiar adversaries were trampled underfoot in the rush to be free of an old tyranny.
25:03But the new tyranny of poverty, hunger and bankruptcy was no better.
25:16And on New Year's Eve last the Winter Revolution of 1917 finally ended
25:21with the dissolution of the Soviet Union
25:23and the establishment of the Commonwealth of Independent States.
25:33Much of the once proud, once feared Soviet Air Force was put out to grass.
25:43And some of the older, less reliable aircraft were mothballed.
25:48But there were still some pilots and some aircraft which could take to the air,
26:06despite the massive fuel bills.
26:08Maintaining a military presence in the uncertain times
26:11which they and their new leaders now face.
26:13Others, however, are having to content themselves with more fuel efficient training methods
26:28when practising the air show aerobatics,
26:30which may soon become as vital to the future of their country
26:33as the missiles they once used to carry under their wings.
26:36Two years ago, when these once secret Soviet aircraft last convened at Farnborough,
26:52the red stars on their tail fins and wingtips told you everything you needed to know
26:56about who they were and what they were doing here.
27:01The displays were designed to demonstrate skill and capability,
27:04and few who saw them were left in any doubt about either.
27:08Now the red stars have gone.
27:10But does that mean that the threat which these aircraft used to represent
27:13has disappeared as well?
27:21They're made more significant now than they were when I started,
27:24because in those days it was relatively simple with Warsaw packed on one side,
27:29white hats of NATO on the other side.
27:31Now there's a proliferation of those weapons.
27:34Those aircraft are being actually sold or aggressively marketed all over the world,
27:40and God knows where they'll be in the year 2020.
27:45Two years ago, as the graceful Sukhoi flanker touched down on the Farnborough runway,
27:49it didn't much matter that there was no word in the Russian language for marketing.
27:53The aircraft wasn't for sale.
27:55This year, by contrast, both Sukhoi and MiG will be turning up with what they call export versions of their most potent aircraft.
28:03And Farnborough will surely be very different this year for another reason too.
28:09Since they last all met, some of the pilots here have been to war in the Gulf.
28:17It was a war which was waged almost entirely from the air for nearly a month before the ground troops went in to reclaim Kuwait from the Iraqis.
28:32It was a war which seemed to validate the claims made by the advocates of overwhelming air power,
28:37a message the sales teams at Farnborough this year won't hesitate to push for all it's worth.
28:42And although it was not a war in which very much air-to-air combat occurred,
28:46for those whose aircraft were victorious like the McDonnell Douglas F-15s and F-18s,
28:51the grisly sales potential of successful combat experience is inescapable.
29:05The familiar images will resurface once more,
29:08and as the laser-guided bombs and missiles fall unerringly towards their targets,
29:12the paradoxical message that high-technology weapons systems save lives and are cost-effective,
29:18will again be offered up for consideration.
29:33And while the public queues once more to see inside the largest airplane ever to fly,
29:37a Russian monster called Maria, or Dream,
29:40those whose job it is to buy fighter aircraft will be faced with some testing choices
29:45in a wide-open and recently battle-proven marketplace.
29:55And although there's undeniable camaraderie amongst the display pilots who fly at shows like Farnborough,
30:00swapping stories and showing each other their respective aircraft,
30:03this year a number of fighters, including IFA, will be battling to the death for the attention of those air forces,
30:10who will soon need to find replacements for their ageing fighter squadrons.
30:13At the top of the shopping list for some could be the relatively cheap Russian-built MiGs and Sukhois,
30:25although they're not everyone's idea of a good buy.
30:28You don't buy something to finish up as parity with a threat.
30:33You go to war to win.
30:35But in fact, cost of ownership is a major consideration.
30:39And the ex-Warsaw Pact countries did not build their aircraft to last.
30:45For example, the MiG-29 has a 2,000-hour fatigue life,
30:49whereas IFA and most Western airplanes have a 6,000-hour.
30:53So you need basically three times the number of airplanes just to break the same as IFA.
30:57And then, of course, the obvious question,
31:00do you really want to be reliant on spares from downtown Russia
31:05when you're thinking about the year 2020?
31:08And then that ignores, of course, the obvious things.
31:11The UK really ought to stay at the forefront of those sorts of technologies.
31:16We don't have to give all of that over to somebody else.
31:18So there's a whole complex raft of reasons
31:21why you don't just rush out and buy an airplane like the SU-27.
31:32So what could you rush out and buy?
31:35One of these, perhaps, the Saab Gripen from Sweden.
31:39Unlike almost any other of the new generation of fighters,
31:42you could have some of these next year.
31:44And although it's rather small and lightweight,
31:46has only one engine, isn't very stealthy,
31:49and has limited range and payload,
31:51it employs composite construction
31:53and computerized flight control technology.
31:56At a mere 20 million, the Gripen is a clear rival to IFA,
32:00and Saab believe it would look very dashing with German Luftwaffe markings.
32:04If you'd prefer something with a little more panache,
32:11and can afford to pay for it,
32:13the 42 million pound Dassault Rafale might be worth considering.
32:17This was the aircraft the French pulled out of the IFA project to pursue on their own.
32:22And at first sight, it seems very similar.
32:24The same delta shape, with canards either side of the cockpit.
32:28This too started life as a twin-engined, single-seat fighter.
32:32But already the Rafale is being developed into a two-seat ground attack fighter.
32:41And the original air superiority capabilities are beginning to be compromised.
32:47Like so many long-term military projects, which can take over a decade to mature,
32:52the Rafale has undergone constant revision and modification,
32:55as a result of changing political influences within France.
32:59And as always, the balance has to be struck between capability and affordability.
33:04What's sometimes known as the numbers game.
33:12The numbers game with aeroplanes, should you have a few very capable aeroplanes,
33:16very expensive, very capable, do everything sort of thing, always win,
33:20or is it better to have a larger number of only 80% capable aeroplanes?
33:25Well, I think that's a very difficult question.
33:27It's a problem that is getting worse and worse for everybody to solve.
33:33Take the Americans and the F-22 concept of aeroplane.
33:38Arguably the most capable fighter aeroplane that the world has yet designed.
33:42General, all-round, air superiority, stealthy, very agile, high angle of attack,
33:46you name it, it's got a lot, but at a price penalty.
33:50A price penalty of £70 million per aircraft,
33:53the cost of a medium-sized airliner.
33:55Why so expensive?
33:57Well, among the many new capabilities which the F-22 incorporates
34:01is a distinctive jet nozzle technology known as thrust vectoring.
34:05Rather like the Harrier,
34:07the F-22 can deflect the direction of its jet exhaust up and down,
34:11and this results in quite extraordinary agility.
34:14But its agility at a price few could afford.
34:17Now, is it better to have a small number of these incredibly good aeroplanes
34:23or a large number of less good ones?
34:25Well, what's the risk of a small number?
34:27You lose them through some freak of nature, the hangar roof falls down,
34:31or there's a saboteur, or they're caught on the ground,
34:34or your intelligence was wrong, or you can't deploy them in time.
34:38You have to keep them all in their special base
34:41and move them to wherever they might be needed, only close to the time.
34:44You can't have them scattered around the world ready.
34:48So, you know, you have these sort of constraints with a small number.
34:51But on the other hand, the pilots would say,
34:54I don't want an inferior aeroplane,
34:56I don't want to be one of the 500 pilots who will die
34:59when our 5,000 aeroplanes win the war.
35:03You can see the problem for the Western mentality,
35:07that the more capability you put in the aeroplane,
35:10the safer the man is likely to be.
35:12You finish up, ultimately, I suppose, with one very expensive aeroplane,
35:16and then it's not available on the day or somebody goes and breaks it.
35:21Which is what happened to the F-22 only a few months ago.
35:26It was to have been a routine test flight,
35:29combined with what's known as a photo opportunity,
35:31a press call, in other words.
35:36Everything seemed to be going well at first,
35:38but as the aircraft began to draw level with the camera,
35:41it was clear that something was seriously wrong with the controls.
35:45The thrust vectoring nozzles and the elevators
35:48seemed to be somehow out of phase with each other.
35:50The result was inevitable, but fortunately not fatal.
35:59It was exactly this kind of computer control problem
36:02which the EAP test programme was designed to explore.
36:05Like the F-22, the EAP is an unstable and therefore agile aircraft
36:10which cannot be flown without the aid of a computer.
36:13The problem is, when should that computer be allowed to overrule the human pilot?
36:18You've got to ensure that whatever the pilot demands of the aircraft
36:23won't break the aeroplane, if you like,
36:25or won't cause it to depart from normal flight.
36:29Enter a spin, for example, and whistle down and crash.
36:32And you've got to ensure that the pilot does not incapacitate himself.
36:36All of these things are designed into the flight control system
36:41so that if the pilot asks the aircraft to do something impossible,
36:45the aircraft won't do it.
36:46You need to have software that takes account of all the inputs
36:51and in presenting them to the pilot,
36:53has its own ideas about what the pilot ought to be doing
36:57or the fact that the pilot ought to be reacting.
36:59So that if it sees it's diving towards the ground at ten feet
37:03or if it sees a missile's only a hundred feet away and about to hit it
37:06and the pilot is doing nothing,
37:08then it will start questioning him about that.
37:11Now if the pilot has departed at that stage,
37:14that's tough luck on the computer.
37:15It's probably going to about to cease to exist as well.
37:18But you can build in some sort of evasive reaction
37:22and indeed we will build into this aeroplane.
37:25It's part of the scheme that where a pilot gets totally disoriented,
37:28for example, he can press a button
37:31which, wherever the aircraft is,
37:33recovers it to straighten level flight into a shallow climb
37:36and waits there for him to be ready to take over again.
37:42Fortunately, nearly all of these systems can be tested
37:45in the flight simulator without endangering life or limb.
37:48The simulator mimics every aspect of the aircraft's behaviour.
37:51and enables pilots to carry out the entire range of manoeuvres
37:55and routine training procedures without ever leaving the ground.
38:06As far as the computers which drive this simulator are concerned,
38:09this ether cockpit really is flying.
38:12Flying through a virtual sky, above a virtual terrain
38:15and using up virtual fuel.
38:18A warning light, or a computer synthesised voice,
38:21prompts him to check the fuel system.
38:23Up until now, the computers on board have been managing the fuel flow.
38:27Now, however, it's time for the pilot to do something,
38:30like pull in at the nearest airborne gas station.
38:33The computers will, of course, route the virtual fuel into the correct virtual fuel tanks,
38:43and won't bother the pilot again until something else comes up.
38:46The simulator is more than just a giant arcade game, however.
38:53It's also a crucial ergonomic laboratory,
38:56in which the cockpit designers can finally assess the user-friendliness of their prototype display panels.
39:01Panels which were themselves designed within the virtual world of a computer.
39:13Without ever having to bend a metal sheet or pop a rivet,
39:16these control panel prototypes can be modified and improved
39:19by means of the touch-sensitive screens on the designer's computer terminal.
39:23Once the design seems satisfactory,
39:27then a working mock-up is constructed and installed into the simulator for further testing.
39:31To date, this virtual IFA has flown for over 500 hours
39:36and has covered a distance of over a quarter of a million virtual miles.
39:39When the time comes to climb into the real IFA cockpit, however,
39:53there will be nothing virtual about the nature of the task the pilot has ahead of him.
39:58His job will be to locate and destroy an enemy
40:01who is probably planning on it working out exactly the other way round.
40:05How, then, will a 21st-century dogfight begin?
40:09Well, let's start in the classic way,
40:13that the adversaries are miles apart
40:16and the first engagement is going to be beyond the visual range.
40:19For that, you need to be supersonic.
40:22You need to be able to manoeuvre supersonically.
40:25Clearly, you need the systems to cope with beyond visual range.
40:29Radar, infrared search and track, and so on.
40:32Good pilot awareness for this man on his own.
40:36The missile for that combat is the AMRAAM,
40:39the Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missile.
40:46Once your AMRAAM missiles are in the air, or so the theory goes,
40:50you can turn away and leave them to it.
40:52Their own onboard radar and computer circuitry
40:54will hunt down and destroy the target wherever it goes.
41:02But, of course, your enemy probably has something similar to AMRAAM too.
41:06And therefore, it's vital that he doesn't see you before you see him.
41:10This is the simple logic which drives the study of stealth technology.
41:17And here at the radar range on the Lancashire coast,
41:20full-sized EAP and IFA models have been zapped with every conceivable radar frequency
41:25to see how reflective they are.
41:27The results enable the engineers to incorporate stealth-enhancing changes
41:34in the shapes of certain body panels and fixings,
41:37and will also help determine which of the many radar absorbent coatings should be used and where.
41:42For many years, the UK has been at the forefront of radar absorbent materials.
41:52So there's a whole amalgam of things.
41:54But in the case of IFA, radar stealth has to be kept in balance,
41:59in balance with agility, in balance with other features,
42:01and, of course, at the end, in balance with affordability,
42:05which is why we didn't go for an all-aspect stealth aircraft
42:09like the advanced tactical fighter.
42:12IFA has a job to do, which is to destroy the enemy.
42:15And to do that, it's a trade-off between can he see you and can you see him.
42:21It's no good you being so small and undetectable
42:24that you don't have room to carry a radar.
42:27You've got to have a radar which enables you to detect him.
42:30And that will typically be, I don't know, getting on for three feet across,
42:35if you look at a modern aircraft.
42:37Now, that means that you're going to have some possibility of being seen.
42:41And it's a trade-off between the size of your aircraft,
42:44the kit it carries, and its stealthiness.
42:47Clearly, every time you use a radar,
42:49you're giving away information which says, I am here.
42:52You're also giving away information, if the other chap is clever,
42:56that says, this is my radar.
42:59And if he has any good intelligence, he'll be able to say,
43:02ah, yes, that's a Mark I I ether, or whatever.
43:06And so, you need to use these things sparingly.
43:10You need to try and gather as much information as you can
43:13with the minimum possible amount of transmission of your own position.
43:18Perhaps the most effective way of doing that nowadays
43:21is by using what's called passive electro-optic sensing.
43:25This technology generates pictures from the differences in temperature
43:29between an object and its surroundings.
43:31And in this picture of a MIG taking off at Farnborough in 1990,
43:35the bright, hot plumes of its after-burning jet exhaust show up very clearly.
43:39But electro-optic imaging can also differentiate between quite small differences in temperature,
43:45as this image of a helicopter demonstrates.
43:48The rapid movement of the tips of the rotor blades through the air
43:51has warmed them slightly,
43:53and they now glow a bit more brightly
43:55than the slower-moving inner sections of the blades,
43:58which is also why the MIG's nose cone is glowing by the end of its display.
44:02By exploiting these minute temperature differences in the environment,
44:09it has been possible for some time now to present a pilot
44:12who is flying low and at night
44:14with an image of his surroundings on a screen in his cockpit.
44:17The software in the system will tell him where the hills and obstacles are,
44:21and will remind him to keep an eye on his altitude.
44:24All of the flight data and targeting information he needs
44:28is shown on the display,
44:30and this technology was used extensively in the Gulf War,
44:33turning night effectively into day.
44:37What hasn't been available until now, however,
44:41is the ability to display that same information to the pilot
44:44on the inside of his visor.
44:46So wherever he chooses to look,
44:48he will see an enhanced image of his surroundings.
44:51The effect on the pilots who have tested the night helmet in flight is dramatic.
44:59Up on the right side there's a plant,
45:03or there's a one o'clock, there's a refinery of sorts.
45:06Oh yeah, I see it.
45:11I can't believe I'm flying at 200 feet,
45:12looking off to the right side of the refinery in the middle of the night.
45:17Some things are surely amazing.
45:28For the IFA designers, the next logical step was to slave the weapon system to the helmet as well,
45:33to produce a helmet-mounted sight.
45:35A helmet-mounted sight is a very simple concept really,
45:40and it works on the thought that you can have a sight that,
45:45since it's strapped to the pilot's head,
45:47can be exactly lined up with his normal sensors, his eyes if you will.
45:51And by fitting sensors around the cockpit,
45:55they can determine exactly in space where that helmet is,
45:59and they can determine which way it is pointing.
46:02And that can be directed and linked directly into the weapon system and into the computer.
46:08So that when the pilot looks at something, he can say to the computer,
46:14what I'm looking at now is where I want you to point,
46:17and where I want you to either track or to fire a weapon.
46:21And in a sense, it's just like aiming a camera.
46:24You've seen people parachuting with cameras strapped to their helmets,
46:28they have a little sight in front of their eye,
46:30and they know that if they look through that, the camera will point that way.
46:33It's a very sophisticated advance on that technique, really.
46:38And to complete the transformation from real reality to virtual reality,
46:45another of the systems being tested here invites a pilot to fly a blue brick
46:50through a computer-generated stereoscopic landscape.
46:59It's a system which could conceivably remove the pilot from the cockpit entirely one day.
47:04Although, as one test pilot wryly observed after having seen these images,
47:07perhaps not in the next couple of weeks.
47:10At the moment, the reality of the IFA project is that seven aircraft will be built and flown between now and 1999.
47:26But in November of this year, the four defence ministers will discuss the results of the IFA cost-cutting study.
47:33And nobody can predict what hairs will be set loose at that meeting.
47:38It's political will that starts projects, quite frankly, and it's political will that sustains them.
47:43The job of the technologists in all this is, of course, to persevere with the sort of development work that we've been speaking about.
47:50But it's also very much, I suggest, to make sure that politicians, who at the end of the day run countries and take decisions,
47:58have available to them all the very best analytical data and the best study of the technology,
48:06so that when they take decisions they can be fully aware of the implications of those decisions.
48:11You have to be, I think, pretty cautious before saying that, well, the Cold War tensions are over and we can all relax.
48:19If you're looking, you know, 25 to 30 years ahead, you have to be conscious of the possibility that a Bonapartist leader of Russia's old imperialist ambitions might arise again in Moscow.
48:35The race between the new democracies and the new despots could be a close one in the former countries of the Soviet Union,
48:41that new dictators could emerge again in the Middle East and elsewhere.
48:45So you have to be cautious and it's no fault of a defence minister to err on the side of preparedness and caution when you plan ahead for the next 30 years.
48:58And if there were a single symbol of the uncertainties that beset defence analysts in late 20th century Europe,
49:04this would be it, an ex-Soviet Union MiG-29 frontline fighter, no more than seven or eight years old,
49:11which now sports the livery of a unified German Luftwaffe.
49:16The Germans have inherited 24 of these competent, if somewhat basic aircraft.
49:21Will they be tempted to procure a few more?
49:24Or will they look to Sweden to replace their ancient Phantoms?
49:28There are, of course, truckloads of capable American planes on offer too.
49:33But perhaps after all the Germans will decide that Aoife is the right programme,
49:39once they've got their 1994 general election out of the way.
49:42Aoife is indeed living in interesting times.
49:47The courses of action open to Britain seem very much clearer.
49:53If those who make such decisions want an air superiority fighter,
49:57then Aoife is undoubtedly the logical choice.
50:00Perhaps the more difficult question is whether we want or need a 21st century Spitfire.
50:07But the thorniest question of them all is whether we want to maintain the industrial capability
50:13to design and build such aircraft, not only Aoife, but its successors too.
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