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Steep increase in wind-related hurricane damage expected by 2060
AccuWeather
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5/29/2025
AccuWeather Forecasting Senior Director Dan DePodwin and AccuWeather Climate Expert Brett Anderson discuss the top headlines related to climate change in the May 23 edition of Climate In The News.
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00:00
Today we're covering two climate stories with hurricane season starting June 1st.
00:05
We'll begin with how climate change is expected to increase the amount of wind damage from hurricanes
00:10
and then turn to the Chesapeake Bay and the increase in marine heat waves.
00:14
Brett, our first analysis study from the Society for Risk Analysis looked at hurricanes
00:20
and how climate change is expected to increase the amount of wind damage
00:24
and then the insured losses from wind damage across the southeastern U.S.
00:28
That's right. Hurricane winds are responsible for about 40% of total losses
00:34
and then you also have to factor in storm surge and heavy rainfall as well with that
00:39
but about 40% which is a significant number.
00:42
Now what the prediction is over the next half century to at the end of the century here
00:47
is an increase of up to 76% of damage of losses due to wind by 2060
00:55
and as much as 100% this is a worst case scenario by 2100.
01:00
That's a significant increase obviously in the amount of wind damage that could be caused by storms.
01:03
What areas of the southeast are or do we expect to be most impacted from the increase in wind damage?
01:09
Yeah, the study focused on Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi and specifically Texas
01:15
where projections are we could see an increase in 14% of losses due to wind by the 2050s.
01:23
So this is obviously due to the likelihood of more intense hurricanes, maybe not more frequent storms
01:27
but more intense hurricanes and what other reasons behind this finding?
01:30
People moving into more riskier areas, low-lying areas.
01:34
We're seeing obviously a continued trend of people moving from the northeast, midwest,
01:38
down to the south into these higher risk areas.
01:41
So from the hurricanes, which obviously need water to be fueled, we'll turn to the water itself here in the Chesapeake Bay
01:47
from this story from the University of Maryland, Maryland Today,
01:51
using satellite data to track the temperature of Chesapeake Bay
01:55
and to understand how marine heat waves work in the Chesapeake,
01:59
which are very important to understand the ecosystem of the bay.
02:01
Yeah, we've talked about marine heat waves over the oceans.
02:04
We've had several across the Pacific and Atlantic.
02:07
Now we're really narrowing into a much smaller area of the Chesapeake Bay,
02:11
which is a critical waterway, obviously, for fishing and marine life.
02:15
And what we've seen here, on average, they have about 25 marine heat wave days annually.
02:22
And over the past 20 years, we've seen a 10% increase in those days,
02:26
which is equal to about two to four additional marine heat waves per year, which is a big deal.
02:30
Yeah, certainly an increase in heat waves that has a pretty wide-raging impact,
02:34
I would think, on the ecosystem of the bay.
02:36
Yeah, absolutely.
02:37
If we get a marine heat wave, what was stated, late spring when there's fish that are spawning,
02:43
it can have a huge impact on the population and, therefore, fishing as well and everything.
02:47
And this is a really unique use of satellite data.
02:50
They also found differences between the lower and upper parts of the bay.
02:53
That's right.
02:54
The lower bay, fewer heat waves, but they tend to last longer.
02:57
Upper bay, which is, of course, as you head up towards the Baltimore area,
03:01
more frequent heat waves, but they're shorter duration.
03:04
Yeah, again, a very interesting use of satellite data,
03:06
not just to look at satellites, perhaps, on the evening news or here on the AccuWeather Network,
03:10
but also to track sea surface temperatures, in this case, in the Chesapeake Bay.
03:14
Thank you, Brett, for that insight.
03:15
For other stories about climate, you can find that at accuweather.com slash climate.
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