Exclusive: Monsoon 2025 Set To Drench Country: IMD Forecasts Above-Normal Rainfall, Big Boost For Farmers

ETVBHARAT

IMD forecasts above-normal monsoon rainfall at 106% of the long-period average for June–September 2025, raising hopes for agriculture, reports Surabhi Gupta.

Transcript

00:00hello viewers IMD has predicted the monsoon season that is from June to

00:07September there is above rainfall than normal we have dr. M Ravi Chandran

00:12secretary from Ministry of Earth Sciences I want to ask like from last

00:16year if we compare this monsoon season we are we can see a lot of states have

00:22this pre monsoon activity and above rainfall activity what is your take so

00:26the pre monsoon activities in the northern side is mainly because of the

00:30western disturbance the western disturbance is bringing more moisture

00:33and there is a thunderstorm always comes whenever you have more moisture and more

00:38heat if it comes that thunderstorm comes so that is a favorable condition this

00:42year both moisture and heat that is why it is a thing in the south in other in

00:48other way it is a because of various other factors cross equatorial flow low

00:53pressure area and then there is a monsoon sorry there is a maiden Julian

00:59oscillation we call that all these factors monsoon factors are favorable that's

01:03why in southern ocean it has come faster the monsoon so what causes the expected

01:10like above near above rainfall in south and central and like below rainfall this

01:16activity in north no it is in south and central India it will be above normal roughly more

01:24than one aspect person whereas in north west it will be more or less normal and in

01:30north east it will be less not me so it is basically the it we cannot say what is

01:34the reason for it but that is what the model it can numerical model provides the data

01:39what is the predictability sir what impact will this pre rainfall in of this monsoon will have

01:47on rain fed agriculture areas like on farm of course it is very good for some of the places

01:53especially south India they can sow early and they can have a better agriculture productivity and of

02:01course other places it depends on the how with the monsoon progress we can tell but as of now it is

02:06always good to know when south it has come early any advisory you want to give through our channel

02:12to people like for the health risk and basically even though we are telling above normal rainfall

02:19and other thing but we are going to expect more and more extreme rainfall in many places so we have

02:25to be careful about that flooding and other things we need to be careful mitigate how to mitigate and how

02:31to escape from that we have to take care in Odia Maharashtra we have seen like pre-monsoon has came

02:37and these activity what about Delhi like in Maharashtra it is a pre-monsoon activity only that is what

02:43thunderstorm hail storm all these things that's what more and more moisture more heat means it will go up

02:48to 15 kilometer height cloud that is why hails for forms and other things so these are all pre-monsoon

02:54activity the north in south it is a monsoon activity now we are joined by Dr. M. Mohapatra sir

03:01my first question to you would be like IMD has predicted we'll having normal from above the

03:07rainfall from the normal monsoon behavior why is what is the reason of having below normal rainfall in

03:16northeast region in south and central we have like above thank you we are expecting a more normal

03:23rainfall for the country as a whole during the monsoon season 2025 that means it is a good

03:29monsoon year we will have good rainfall activity if you look at the climatology of rainfall in any

03:36above normal rainfall year central India south India usually gets good rainfall activity northeast

03:45India gets less rainfall as typically it is being predicted that this year it will be above normal

03:52year so northeast India will expect less than normal rainfall year in an above normal year many low

04:01pressure systems develop over the northwest and west central India and they move west northwest towards

04:07giving good rainfall activity over central India and south peninsula India and because of this low

04:13pressure systems the rainfall decreases over northeast India if we talk about the financial capital of India

04:20Mumbai we see the monsoon regularly in earlier years we see the in the first or second week of like June we

04:28see the monsoon but now only the Mumbai is bathing with the floods like right now what is your take on

04:33that you are right because the monsoon has arrived over Mumbai 16 days before its normal date

04:39and as and when monsoon advances along the west coast you will find that it leads to heavy to very

04:44heavy rainfall activity and this are also it has happened but in addition to that there was a depression

04:51at first it became a low pressure area on 23rd it moved across Maharashtra coast near Ratnagiri it hit the

04:57coast and whenever a low pressure area develops during the onset phase of monsoon over arabian sea it strengthens

05:04the monsoon current that means the monsoonal winds because of the western guard this westerly

05:10monsoon wind collides with the western guards and hence there will be orographic afflicting of this

05:17moist air which leads to copious amount of rainfall activity and that has happened this year after

05:24Maharashtra Odisha and other Kerala states we have also seen these free monsoon activities what is

05:30your prediction for this Delhi Chandigarh Haryana area yeah so this year in the month of May there has been

05:38uh very frequent western disturbances passing over northwest India and when a western distance passes

05:45in the month of May it leads to thunderstorm activity associated with lightning rainfall sometimes hell

05:52storms squally winds or gusty winds sometimes the wind speed can exceed 100 kilometers per hour and that

05:57has happened and this year for the next few weeks or next few days also this type of activity will continue

06:05we're expecting another western disturbance to move across northwest india after three days

06:10so therefore we can again expect thunderstorm activity in different parts of northwest india

06:15so we have talked about western disturbances and wind speed also will this neutral uh

06:21enso effect and this negative iod also will change the monsoon behavior this year as for prediction of imd

06:31the leno southern oscillation condition is neutral at present and it will continue to be neutral

06:39till end of monsoon season so therefore there is no adverse impact on the monsoon rainfall negative iod

06:46or indian ocean dipole condition being predicted is not so much severe it is marginally negative so

06:51therefore it may not have much adverse impact further if you compare the leno southern oscillation and indian

06:58ocean dipole leno southern oscillation has a higher role than the indian ocean and dipole in the seasonal

07:04rainfall activity the third point is that the himalayan snow cover has been less this year compared to the

07:12normal which is a good um factor for higher rainfall activity over the country so my last question to you

07:21would be like how what impact will be this above rainfall have on rain fed agriculture areas like

07:28for the farmers you were telling it will be it is a good news yeah central india especially extending

07:34from gujarat rajasthan and maharashtar to whom odisha and adjanic areas of west bengal and andhra pradesh

07:41this area uh is less irrigated comparatively and uh here agriculture depends upon the rainfall

07:48the rainfall area is more in the central part we call it as monsoon core zone and we also gave a

07:54special forecast today for the monsoon core zone as per the forecast issued today rainfall is expected

07:59to be above normal over the monsoon core zone so therefore it is a good news for the farmers in this

08:04region but at the same time we should remember that we have got many river and systems in this

08:09there are many cities and towns so due to the expected higher rainfall activity there could be the

08:15severe weather events like the localized flooding or river and flooding urban flooding etc that we should

08:23take care of thank you so much for talking to us this is surbi reporting with cameraman sandeep singh e tv bharat

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