Visit our website:
http://www.france24.com
Like us on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/FRANCE24.English
Follow us on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/France24_en
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00For more, we can speak to Christopher Sabatini in London.
00:02He's a senior research fellow for Latin America, the U.S., and the Americas program at Chatham House.
00:07Hello to you, Christopher. Thank you for speaking to Paris Direct.
00:11First of all, is this the right strategy by the opposition?
00:15They say they won last year's presidential election.
00:18Evidence suggests they did.
00:20Why should they sit out this poll?
00:22Would it not put more pressure on Maduro if they ran again?
00:26I think it's a risky strategy.
00:27The opposition has been sitting out the elections a number of times, actually, since 2005.
00:33At that time, there were parliamentary elections.
00:36They ceded the entire parliament at that time to the Maduro, then Chavez government.
00:42I can understand why they wouldn't want to participate after the election, as you mentioned, was stolen from them July 28th last year.
00:49By all accounts, the U.N. and the Carter Center all said that it was a fraudulent election.
00:53So it's difficult for them to justify going to their voters to turn out in the election.
00:57That said, with 23 governorships up for the vote and the entire National Assembly, there is a risk here that the opposition is, by not participating in the elections, is simply ceding the field again to the mother of government, but also not mobilizing people.
01:13You need reasons to get people out, to give them a message, to give them hope.
01:17And while another fraudulent election isn't the best way to do that, it does mean that they're distant right now from a whole process that is fundamental to the democratic system when it is eventually restored.
01:28It also seems that, at least by participating in this election, it reminds critics of the Maduro regime that they're not alone.
01:36There are other people who disagree with Maduro, wherever they be, in Caracas or elsewhere.
01:41What is the state of Venezuela's opposition now?
01:45We just saw dozens more people detained in the run-up to this vote.
01:49How strong is the opposition?
01:51How weak is it?
01:52Well, first of all, after the vote last year, about 2,000 people were arrested.
01:57There's still about 900 people in prison still in the opposition who protested the fraudulent elections.
02:02Right now, the opposition is mostly unified, behind Maria Corina Machado, who you saw speak in this opening segment.
02:09But there are a few opposition leaders who are competing.
02:12A smaller opposition party called Un Nuevo Tiempo is contesting, actually, to try to get reelected in Zulia State, one of the most important states in Venezuela.
02:23But by and large, the largest part of the opposition is sitting out this election.
02:28And they're suffering a new round of about a dozen or so arrests under completely trumped-up charges of terrorism and being traitors.
02:37Another area to watch here, of course, will be Ezequibo.
02:42How can Venezuela organize elections in a territory governed by a different country?
02:49The short answer is it can't.
02:51The truth is Ezequibo is in Guyana.
02:54And the Guyanese have said that any Guyanese voter, citizen who votes in the elections, is considered treasonous.
03:01So there's no reason for them to vote.
03:03Basically, the only place where that election will take place is in a municipality on the border of Venezuela and Guyana, but on the Venezuelan side.
03:12And that's it.
03:13So it's really, really a very symbolic, rather clumsy effort, actually, to try to stoke nationalism within Venezuela.
03:20And again, discredit the opposition.
03:22Because the one thing the opposition and the government do agree on is that they believe that this Ezequibo region should be part of Venezuela.
03:29It is not.
03:30It's currently in the International Court of Justice for a resolution of the border.
03:35But for now, at least, the government is trying to ramp up these claims to the territory.
03:39Again, in part because it's a historic claim that they've had.
03:43But also now they've recently discovered massive amounts of oil just across the border.
03:47And as the Venezuelan government now is struggling economically, it sort of sees this as a potential bonanza for its coffers.
03:54Yeah, you say the government and the opposition are united in wanting Ezequibo.
03:59Do they agree on why?
04:01Are they both interested in it because of the economic interest?
04:05Or is it more the historical interest?
04:06Or is there a nuance that you can provide for us?
04:09It's completely historic.
04:11If you go into a classroom in Venezuela, you'll see a Venezuelan map that doesn't look at all like Venezuelan maps elsewhere.
04:17And that's because all maps, even in the schools, include Ezequibo.
04:21So it's really sort of ingrained in the Venezuelan sort of culture, political culture and sense of identity.
04:28What I think the opposition doesn't agree with is the idea that this could be invaded or seized as well as these elections.
04:36And again, this is an attempt by the government to demonstrate the opposition is somehow not nationalistic enough, doesn't believe in the historic claims.
04:44But, you know, even with opposition leaders, if you talk about Ezequibo, they will maintain the claim that that should have been part of Venezuelan territory when the International Court of Justice ruled on it over a century ago.
04:57Marco Rubio expressing the U.S. secretary said expressing a concern after these recent detentions of the opposition members.
05:04I believe that was on earlier this week, just several days ago, about 70 people, including one of the opposition leaders, Guanipa.
05:11How do you think the Trump administration will handle relations with Caracas moving forward?
05:19It's a very delicate issue.
05:21You've got two factions within the Trump administration.
05:23You have Marco Rubio, who is the son of Cuban exiles, and for many Cuban exiles, basically Venezuela is an extension of the Cuban Castro regime.
05:32And certainly Venezuelan oil helped keep the Castro regime afloat in the early 2000s.
05:39So he's very pro-sanctions, very pro-isolation, and a hard-line policy hoping for regime change in Venezuela.
05:46On the other hand, you have Rick Grinnell, who's on the national security team.
05:51He's the special envoy for Trump to Venezuela.
05:54He's been trying to negotiate with the Maduro government to allow for the return of Venezuelan deportees from the United States
06:00and also to maintain Chevron, the U.S. oil company's license and ability to continue to operate in the country.
06:07And Rubio and Grinnell are very much at odds right now.
06:11Grinnell has seemed to have lost in a recent battle between the two.
06:15The Chevron license will likely be shut down by the end of this month.
06:19But it is a very difficult policy right now because, on the one hand, you have a hard-line policy,
06:24another one that is trying to cater to U.S. economic interests as well as secure the release of about six or so U.S. citizens
06:31that are currently being held in Venezuela.
06:33And we'll see how this shakes out.
06:35Right now, of course, with this election, Rubio very much is focused on trying to isolate and condemn the Maduro government.
06:44And on that note, Maduro in power well over a decade now.
06:49We have, you know, a lot of history.
06:53We see what his track record is in regards to human rights and regards to the economy.
06:58Many other topics, dissent as well.
07:00Is Maduro more isolated than he was recently?
07:04Or how has his influence changed internationally?
07:07Internationally, it's a different world where it was, say, a decade ago.
07:15With the stolen election, excuse me, in July, he was immediately recognized by North Korea, Cuba, Russia, Iran,
07:23not even a rogues gallery of governments, if you will,
07:26but ones that are helping to sustain his ability to remain in power by providing oil, trade, finances, and the like.
07:33So he has been a very – he hasn't been as isolated as he was.
07:37He was recently in Moscow, for example, meeting with Vladimir Putin.
07:41So he's not recognized by the European Union or many governments in Latin America,
07:47but he's able to claim some sorts of support internationally.
07:50And so this effort to isolate and condemn Maduro while it's met well in Europe and the like,
07:56he's able to sustain himself.
07:58And that's important to him.
08:00It's also important to keep some elements of a lifeline, both in terms of oil exports,
08:05also in terms of investment, open.
08:08Christopher, thank you very much for your time.
08:09Christopher, seven.