Bitcoin: How Much Can You Realistically Make If You Buy Now

Digital Wealth Academy

Transcript

00:00a lot of people don't really want to hear this but you absolutely need to before you go fomoing

00:09into bitcoin at the current prices think you're gonna be retired partying on yappa next week baby

00:14you need to ask yourself this question how much can i realistically make if i buy bitcoin right

00:20now now i'm not saying you shouldn't buy any bitcoin having a little stash of bitcoin definitely

00:25feels good especially if you're involved in the crypto space and bitcoin's gonna keep going higher

00:29there essentially is no top to bitcoin long term but we're entering what could be the parabolic

00:34phase of the bull market and if you go in with delusional expectations you'll either panic sell

00:38too early or you'll get wrecked bitcoin's become a big boy asset now the winners in this game are the

00:44ones who remain grounded in reality so let's talk about bitcoin's realistic growth rate from where

00:49it is today now back in the early days of 2011 2013 even 2017 bitcoin is a beast multiple hundred percent

00:57plus years were normal and it made sense at the time bitcoin was tiny was way more volatile than

01:03it is right now was ignored by institutions ignored by corporations ignored by billionaire whales but

01:08everything changed in 2020 that's when bitcoin started to get institutionalized micro strategy

01:13tesla hedge funds sovereign wealth funds started showing up in the market oh sure just a few but they

01:21were the early movers they were signaling there's a major change coming and more capital in the market

01:25meant a bigger market cap which means less volatility which leads to low returns after 2020

01:31bitcoin's compound annual growth rate or gagger dropped from over 100 percent to around 30 to 40

01:37percent it's the same reason early stage startups can do a 10x but apple stock for example now isn't

01:43going to do a 10x at least not in our lifetimes probably when you go from a few billion to over a

01:48trillion dollars of market cap guess what the rocket ship slows down bitcoin stops trading like a tech bro

01:54gamble and started trading more like a legit macro asset class because that's what it is it's right

01:59up there with gold and bonds and stocks now and with the launch of the spot etfs that shift became

02:04undeniable so what's that mean for future returns well it's a good question we're gonna get into that

02:10in just a second but before we do if you're buying bitcoin trading bitcoin trading if you're trading

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02:50okay so the future price of bitcoin now according to on-chain analyst willie woo bitcoin's long-term

02:55cager is trending downward to eight percent a year and that lines up with the macro picture the long

03:00term monetary expansion is around five percent global gdp growth is around three percent add them

03:04together and eight percent cager is a reasonable growth rate for a long-term store of value like

03:08bitcoin but there's no need to throw in the towel just yet you see that's where we're likely heading

03:14over the next 15 to 20 years as the network continues to mature so the moon boy days are

03:21definitely fading but by no means does this mean you shouldn't buy any bitcoin ever again or have

03:27zero exposure to the asset class it's still smarter and more scarce than gold if you are a gold buyer

03:32you like the gold narrative why the hell wouldn't you own bitcoin so even if bitcoin's only going to

03:38return 15 annually over the next 10 years which is totally possible during the final asymmetric phase of the

03:42asset class when it becomes like a big daddy boring asset after that well let me show you what that looks

03:47like so ten thousand dollars with bitcoin today growing at fifteen percent a year will be worth

03:53four hundred and fifty five dollars in 10 years 163,665 dollars in 20 years now compare that to the

04:00s&p 500 which averages around eight to ten percent or bonds to hover around five percent or less

04:04even if bitcoin's returns are eroding no other asset class comes close when you zoom out and that's

04:10that staking without lending nothing fancy just straight up buy bitcoin dump it in your sweet

04:17hardware wallet and hold it that's it now that brings us up to the big shift happening right now as

04:23well because while the retail crowd has been chasing meme coins and selling their bitcoin to gamble the

04:30institutions are quietly positioning themselves for the long game case in point fidelity just dropped a bomb

04:36boom fidelity's director of global macro just said bitcoin is ready to carry gold's baton that's because

04:45bitcoin's sharp ratio which is how much return you get for the risk you take is now lining up with

04:49gold and that's huge because it's valued at one cent the market cap of gold okay it means bitcoin's not

04:54just some volatile crazy beast for cool kids anymore it's earning its stripes as a serious store of value

05:01asset and while gold outperformed bitcoin in q1 due to recession fears bitcoin's had a v-shaped recovery

05:08since trump's liberation day outperforming gold of course bitcoin etf flows bounced back hard now some

05:14models are forecasting a bitcoin price of two to four hundred thousand dollars this cycle you know we've

05:18been in the sort of camp of 250 000 bitcoin it's a pico pico top price wouldn't be shocked by a little

05:23bit higher but that's a pretty good estimate but that's at least double from here based on bitcoin's

05:27network valuation catching up to gold so let me put you a bit of perspective here there's over a

05:33quadrillion dollars invested in global assets real estate stocks bonds cash collectibles etc etc

05:39etc but only two trillion of that is in bitcoin that's 0.2 percent and people are still out here

05:44saying it's too late to buy well we're not early anymore and you need to keep your expectations

05:49realistic but we're definitely also not super late we're not buying at a 20 trillion dollar mark cap right

05:54but this is what happens when an asset goes from internet experiment to macro heavyweight it's gone

05:58from zero to something but the runway ahead is still massive if it captures even a fraction of

06:03the money locked in traditional assets and that's before the money printers go burr and more new money

06:07is added into the game which of course is going to happen so should you buy bitcoin today well if you're

06:12looking for fast money no if you're looking to build long-term wealth over the next decade or two and

06:18you want to consistently dollar costs average in and not think about the day-to-day place fluctuations then

06:22bitcoin's one of the best asymmetric bets you can make there's way more upside than there is downside

06:26to bitcoin we're not at equilibrium yet bitcoin is still absorbing capital institutional adoption is

06:31not over sovereign adoption is barely getting started the next five to ten years are likely the final

06:36window to lock in those 15 to 20 percent CAGR style gains after that the rocket becomes a freight train

06:45still powerful still unstoppable but a hell of a lot slower more steady less dramatic like gold so how much

06:52can you realistically make by buying bitcoin right now you're probably not gonna 100x your money at

06:57least not in your lifetime but you still make it a nice 10x over the next decade from a price of 100k

07:03ish to a million you just need to zoom out and be patient because there's no other publicly investable

07:09asset that has the ability to give you that same kind of upside with store of value properties

07:15bitcoin's evolving the question is can you evolve your mindset with it forget the moon boy bullshit okay

07:20focus on the long-term wealth for the future holding gold but at a tenth the market cap and we're going

07:27to catch up to it and the catch-up trade is what you're looking at over the next 10 years thanks for

07:32watching

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