This episode of the Southeastern 14 podcast covers the new horizon at Auburn under the first year of coaching from Hugh Freeze
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00:00There is excitement on the plains as we are heading into the first season
00:09under Hugh Freeze at Auburn.
00:11The Tigers fans are just hopeful after the era of Brian Harsin is over with
00:21and now the Tigers get to have a fresh start, start anew.
00:26They're bringing in new faces.
00:28So it's time here on Southeastern 14 to examine what are the realistic expectations
00:34under Hugh Freeze in year one at Auburn.
00:44Hello everyone, I'm Blaine Gilmer.
00:46Welcome to Southeastern 14.
00:48It's a channel here that covers all things SEC, whether it's football, baseball, basketball,
00:54you name it, we have it here.
00:56Chris Lee, Blake Love will do a great job on this channel as well.
01:00They're going to be doing football content here with me soon.
01:03I've been kind of holding it down during the offseason.
01:05But now it is time to talk about Hugh Freeze and Auburn's expectations in year one.
01:13Obviously, Auburn was not as successful as it would have liked to have been under Brian Harsin.
01:22Did have a little bit of a resurgence at the end of the year last year going 2-2 under Cadillac Williams
01:29when he took over the program.
01:31But I guess what you have to ask yourself is the secret to life, so to speak, is managing expectations, right?
01:41And you have to look at this Auburn team and say, okay, what are realistic expectations for this Auburn football team?
01:52And before we get into wins and losses and what the record should be and all that kind of stuff,
01:58I think what you have to look at is certain characteristics of the football team.
02:05What is to be expected out of this Auburn squad and what has historically been expected out of Auburn football teams?
02:14I think Auburn, at its core, when it has been most successful, even times under Gene Chizik, under Gus Malzahn,
02:27when those teams in recent history have been most successful at Auburn,
02:31it has been because of physicality on the lines of scrimmage.
02:35And it's been because they've been able to run the football effectively and stop the run.
02:39And I think that is something that you're going to see become a huge, huge priority,
02:46even more so than it was under Brian Harsin's regime here under Hugh Freeze, Ron Roberts, and Philip Montgomery.
02:55Ron Roberts, obviously the Dave Aranda influence with him being at Baylor the last three years,
03:03and then Philip Montgomery is a guy who, at his core, at his heart of what he wants to do,
03:09is run the football.
03:10When Tulsa was most successful under Philip Montgomery, a 10-3 season that they had there,
03:18he ran the ball on average 51 times per game in that season.
03:25In the eight games last year that Auburn was under the control of Brian Harsin,
03:31they averaged just under 38 run per temps per game.
03:35You take what Cadillac Williams did, and that number jumped up to over 46 rush per temps per game.
03:44When you have guys like Jarquez Hunter, like Damari Alston, like Brian Batty,
03:51Auburn needs to be able to run the football and run it well.
03:55And in order to do that, you've had to upgrade on the offensive line.
03:59Hugh Freeze went out and got Dylan Wade.
04:01He went out and got a Gunner Britton.
04:04And now they've just added Jaden Muskrat, another offensive lineman from Tulsa
04:09that is probably going to compete with Tate Johnson at right guard.
04:13So when it comes down to things, you've got two guys in Dylan Wade and Jaden Muskrat
04:19who are familiar with what Philip Montgomery wants to do.
04:23You've got really talented running backs in the backfield.
04:26And now you have two quarterbacks because you've added Peyton Thorne on top of Robbie Ashford
04:33that both are capable of hurting you with their legs running the football.
04:39Auburn's expectation offensively should be that they are going to run the football effectively.
04:45Okay.
04:45Now that does put pressure on the receivers on the outside.
04:49But, okay, Javaris Johnson, Cooley Moore, those are guys that are going to have to be able to win
04:56one-on-one matchups because people are going to try to take away the box from Auburn
05:00and say, okay, Peyton Thorne, Robbie Ashford, whoever wins that starting quarterback job,
05:05can you beat us?
05:07Can you make good throws against man coverage?
05:09Can your wide receivers separate?
05:12Can Nick Marner, the transfer from Cincinnati, can he get in there and do some things?
05:17They brought in Caleb Burton, a transfer from Ohio State.
05:19Doesn't have a lot of experience, but he's been in that Ohio State program
05:23and been able to learn, you know, from Brian Hartline,
05:27learn from some talented receivers that they have over there.
05:31So it has to be a good influence into the program.
05:35And then also when you're talking about this Auburn team, like I said,
05:41they're going to get opportunities to stretch the field.
05:44Can a guy like a Malcolm Johnson step in and be a guy who uses his tremendous speed
05:52down the field to be able to kind of soften up some of those boxes
05:57that Auburn's going to see?
05:58Then you have a talented tight end room that is going to be spearheaded
06:03by transfer Rivaldo Fairweather.
06:06He's a guy who is 6'4", 6'5", huge wingspan, big catch radius,
06:13is going to be able to do some things in the blocking game,
06:16but also is going to be a nice target for whichever one of those quarterbacks
06:21takes the field.
06:23They've got Luke Deal and Tyler Fromm there who bring experience.
06:27Both redshirt seniors know kind of at their heart what Auburn should be
06:33and needs to be, so I think you're looking at an offense that you should expect
06:39to see points out of this year and some excitement,
06:43which is not exactly what you got all the time last year under this Auburn program.
06:50I mean, you look at it against San Jose State, lackluster performance last year.
06:56Of course, Penn State was not something they were proud of,
07:00only putting up 12 points in that game, and then consecutively Missouri and LSU,
07:0617 points in each of those games, 10 points against Georgia.
07:10They really started to pick it up towards the end of the year,
07:14at least offensively.
07:15Ron Roberts will have to help defensively.
07:18Now, I think that is where another expectation you can say,
07:22I think you can expect Auburn not to be 122nd in the country in turnover margin.
07:29The combination of Philip Montgomery and wanting to run the football
07:35as an identity on offense and Ron Roberts and his style of defense
07:40that is very, very prone to producing turnovers,
07:46I think you're going to see the turnover margin.
07:48It won't be a minus 10 this year.
07:50You go look at what Liberty had last year and Tulsa had last year.
07:55You're looking at a minus two, minus three area, and that's largely Liberty was,
08:00you know, they take a little bit more chances over there
08:03with what Hugh Freeze was doing there.
08:04I think you're going to see more of a – it's still going to be that RPO base,
08:10but I think you're going to see some two-back looks, some tight end in the backfield type looks,
08:20H-back type stuff, and you're going to see, like I said, they're going to pound that football,
08:24and that's going to decrease on the turnovers there for Auburn.
08:28So, I think adding Peyton Thorne, who, in my opinion, even though Robbie Ashford is tremendously talented,
08:36I think Peyton Thorne's a guy who has actually competed at a high level.
08:40You look at that 2021 season against Michigan State, he was complimented well by Kenneth Walker up there.
08:48Auburn's going to have a good running game, and I think he's a guy who is able to layer the football
08:54in between levels of defenses effectively, he's able to hurt you just enough with his arm.
09:00I would expect Peyton Thorne to come in and win that job for Auburn.
09:05So, expectations first, run the football, don't turn over the football, create turnovers on defense.
09:14I think those are things that you're going to see out of this Auburn team
09:20led by the triumphant of Hugh Freeze, Ron Roberts, and Phillip Montgomery.
09:25Now, let's look at the schedule here and see, you know, what are the realistic expectations.
09:33Realistic expectations are take care of business in those first three games.
09:39Cal, even though you're going all the way across the country,
09:43it is not a very good football program that you're going up against.
09:50A roster that is going to have to be totally rebuilt.
09:55Cal lost to Colorado last year, and we know what kind of a train wreck Colorado was.
10:00So, when you're talking about this Auburn football team,
10:05if they could get off to that 3-0 start and do so with building a lot of confidence,
10:11that has to help you going into Cal Field because Texas A&M is going to be playing
10:16with desperation this year, okay?
10:18This is Jimbo Fisher's kind of put up or shut up year, in my opinion.
10:24He's brought in Bobby Petrino to help him.
10:26They're going to be able to put up points, in my opinion.
10:29They've got some talented receivers on the outside.
10:32I think Connor Wegman is much improved for them, so that's going to be tough,
10:36and especially before you host the back-to-back defending national champions
10:41in Georgia before the off week.
10:45I don't think it's unrealistic to expect four wins out of that.
10:51I think it's more likely to expect three.
10:55So, let's just be conservative and say they were 3-2,
10:59but I could see them being 4-1 there going into the bye week.
11:04I think LSU, I think, is not going to drop off from where they were last year.
11:13In fact, I think they'll improve from where they were last year.
11:16They have everybody coming back on the offensive line.
11:18They've got Jayden Daniels back.
11:20They have the best wide receiving core in the SEC,
11:24if not one of the best in the country.
11:25So, I think that's a tough game, and especially being at Tiger Stadium on the road,
11:33it's going to be rough.
11:34So, I wouldn't expect a ton out of that game in terms of producing AW,
11:41but I would expect Auburn to compete because that's what they do against LSU.
11:45Even last year, they lost 21-17 in a game where LSU was still trying to figure things out,
11:53and Auburn almost got them.
11:55So, Ole Miss, I think that's a game that you can win.
11:59I don't really believe that much right now in Ole Miss.
12:03I'm not sure they know what they're going to have at quarterback.
12:08I think that they've got to get some things figured out in their wide receiver room.
12:14Their defense still has to be more sound,
12:19and I think Auburn will be able to run the football well in that game.
12:23And Mississippi State, they're figuring things out,
12:27so I think you could have a couple wins there.
12:29If you're going conservatively, like I said, three before the bye,
12:35that puts you at a five and three, maybe six and two mark
12:41if you get that Texas A&M game.
12:43Vanderbilt should be able to win on the road at Arkansas.
12:47That's tough.
12:48So, let's say you're seven and three right there.
12:54Get your eighth win against New Mexico State, and then that Alabama game.
13:00I think the Iron Bowl, especially being at Jordan-Hare Stadium,
13:07is very gettable for Auburn this year.
13:11Heck, two years ago, that Auburn team under Brian Harsin was terrible,
13:17and they played really, really well.
13:19Okay?
13:20And at times, Auburn did really good things against Alabama last year.
13:25Now that, you know, they were able to run the football effectively,
13:28things like that.
13:29But I think that that is going to be one of those classic Iron Bowls this year.
13:37So, realistic expectations for Auburn, I would put the over-under at eight
13:43and a half wins.
13:46And, you know, if you could get to nine wins year one,
13:51that would be like coach of the year type stuff for Hugh Freeze.
13:56I think eight wins is 100% realistic.
14:01And I think you're going to see guys like Justin Roberts take a big role
14:09in that defense for Auburn.
14:11You know, big guy in the middle from Kentucky that's transferred over.
14:16Austin Keyes at Mike, look for him to have a big year.
14:20Keontae Scott returns at the nickelback.
14:23So, they've got some pieces.
14:25Of course, Nehemiah Pritchett is a guy, a senior at corner that I think is
14:29really, really good.
14:30And then at strong safety, Zion Puckett.
14:32They've got some guys returning that I think are going to be flying around
14:37for Ron Roberts' defense over there.
14:39And they have some talented young guys like Ken Lee and Demario Tolan
14:44that could figure into things.
14:46So, excited to see what this Auburn team does in 2023.
14:53Leave your comments below.
14:54Let us know what you think your expectations are.
14:58Biggest question for me, that wide receiving core, can they create space for the Auburn run game?
15:07Can they loosen boxes by winning one-on-one matchups, by being able to stretch the field?
15:11And they have a quarterback in Peyton Thorne who will be able to get them the ball effectively.
15:17Like I said, leave your comments, like, subscribe, turn on notifications.
15:22For Southeastern 14, I'm Blaine Gilmer, and we'll catch you guys next time.
15:26We'll see you next time.
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