La amenaza rusa y las repercusiones económicas y políticas globales del mandato de Donald Trump al frente de la presidencia de Estados Unidos (EEUU) han centrado el debate geopolítico. También se han abordado el papel de la Unión Europea (UE) en el nuevo escenario global y la fiabilidad de la OTAN como garante de la seguridad europea.
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00:00Tenemos, como europeos, dentro de la Unión, una cláusula de seguridad, de apoyo colectivo, copiada del artículo 5 de la OTAN.
00:08Pero claro, si no nos podemos fiar del artículo 5 de la OTAN, de nuestra propia seguridad,
00:15la cuestión inmediatamente que se pone encima de la mesa en Europa es, bueno, ¿y para qué nos sirve la OTAN?
00:21Europa tiene que hacerse de una vez por todas mayor de edad, es decir, si nos vale la Alianza Atlántica,
00:27el vínculo transatlántico para proteger nuestra seguridad, vamos a ello, pero si no nos vale,
00:34porque no confiamos en que esa garantía de seguridad sea mantenida por quien está en la Casa Blanca
00:40y por quien tiene el poder relativamente mayor, obviamente mayor, dentro de la Alianza Atlántica,
00:48tenemos que buscar nosotros nuestras propias soluciones.
00:52Estados Unidos sigue comprometida con la OTAN, con la Alianza Atlántica.
00:56Ya no hay dudas sobre su compromiso.
00:58Por el momento.
00:59Estados Unidos quiere una OTAN más fuerte y claro, esto viene con una expectativa,
01:04con una expectativa de que los europeos y los canadienses tomen más responsabilidad en su seguridad,
01:12en la seguridad colectiva. Y eso es lo que estamos haciendo.
01:15El realidad es que todavía no tenemos demasiados capables, deployables soldados en Europa.
01:22And unless we work on mass, that means have more tanks, more artillery, more steel to deter Vladimir Putin, unless we work on readiness, which is the capacity to deploy soldiers at speed and at scale,
01:41and unless we work on edge, which is technology, so it's drones, but AI and how you use AI to basically use the old weapon systems with the new and create situational awareness and inflict much more casualty on your adversary,
01:59unless we get these three things right before the end of this decade, European security is going to be under danger.
02:08And therefore, I just want, and I'm not a skeptic, I'm an optimist, but I think we need to be, the starting point needs to be honest,
02:20is that we are not, even if we make all the pledges of the world, yet able to stand on our own feet and to help Ukraine stand on its own feet.
02:29With respect to China, which I think is moving into the void that the United States is leaving,
02:39we used to think if we brought China into the World Trade Organization, that if we, we thought we could make China more like us.
02:48But if you look at the situation, we are becoming more like China, we are becoming protectionist, we are, I'm talking about the United States specifically,
02:58we are discouraging foreign investment, we are putting up the walls around us, and in a sense, we are looking more like the state capitalism that exists in China
03:13than what we thought the liberal democracy that would develop in China might look like.
03:18Just last point, which is with increased defense spending in Europe, you know,
03:23one of the sources of American innovation and entrepreneurship and economic growth has been defense spending.
03:31The internet itself, you know, was the product of DARPA investment many years ago.
03:36So there is that potential for Europe if it really ups its game in terms of defense spending in the long run of providing a source of innovation that hasn't existed.
03:48But I don't think we have all of that time to wait for the immediate crises that exist, as is in Ukraine.
03:56And I hope that Carmen is correct that the United States stands behind Article 5.
04:01But if you recall Donald Trump saying that if Europe doesn't start to pony up, we'll let Russia do whatever the hell they want, that's a quote.
04:14So I hope you're right.
04:16I hope you're right.