- 5/18/2025
Hunter Brown has been incredible this season. Is it the best we've seen from a starting pitcher in this Astros era?
Payne & Pendergast discuss that here.
Payne & Pendergast discuss that here.
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00:00There's so many ways you can slice up Hunter Brown's season so far that it's just so impressive.
00:05One that I'm just looking at right here, he's given up nine earned runs all year.
00:11And this is not to be mean or anything, but Lance McCullers gave up seven earned runs in a third of an inning last week.
00:17Hunter Brown's given up nine earned runs the entire season so far.
00:20It's going to be June in a week and a half or whatever it is. It's pretty soon.
00:24He hadn't given up a home run since his first appearance this year against Juan Soto.
00:30It had been 50 and two-thirds innings since he had given up a home run.
00:35He gives up one home run last night. That's the only run scored in the game.
00:39That was it. Here was Joe Espada last night on Hunter Brown's performance.
00:43Yeah, he was really, really, really good.
00:47From the first pitch of the ball game, that first inning, he came out throwing strikes, all his pitches working.
00:54And I couldn't, you know, he's showing performance. He's really, really good.
00:59Yeah, he's been great. I'm trying to kind of cobble the numbers together, Seth.
01:04It's not easy to do. The numbers I'm trying to come up with are difficult on baseball reference
01:08because what I'm trying to do is figure out since this time last year.
01:14What's today?
01:15He started a game on May 17th last year, and from there he was off to the races.
01:21And I'm trying to figure out what his numbers are over that time.
01:23But suffice it to say, I know he's 16-7.
01:25He's thrown almost 200 innings in a year.
01:28And I'm guessing his ERA is somewhere around two, either slightly above or slightly below two,
01:33since that time last year.
01:35So as far as guys going on a heater, like Garrett Cole is the one really notable.
01:43And when that, you know, Garrett Cole wasn't at the same level as Justin Verlander early in the season.
01:49And then from this point on, he went on a heater.
01:53I can't remember exactly when the turnaround or like the real surge started.
01:57It was in May.
01:57Where those guys became dueling.
01:59Talking about 2019, right?
02:01Yeah, in 2019.
02:03That was when it was him and Verlander were the number one and two favorites for the Cy Young.
02:08Yeah, that's how good Verlander was.
02:10Cole was unstoppable from the middle of May, and Verlander won the Cy Young that year.
02:13I feel like that's how crazy those two were at the top of the rotation.
02:18And that's why I wonder, like, this is, I mean, the stats are going to be great for any of these guys.
02:23But in terms of the level of dominance that we're seeing, and it's tough to kind of envision back to 2019,
02:28Hunter Brown is at this level right now.
02:30He is at a 2019 Cole peak Verlander.
02:35You can pick any of Verlander's seasons where he was healthy, fully healthy with the Astros.
02:39When Verlander had a healthy, full season with the Astros, he either won the Cy Young or was the runner-up for the Cy Young.
02:45He had three fully healthy seasons with the Astros, and he was amazing.
02:48The other one, I would throw two others into the mix.
02:52Dallas Keuchel in 2015.
02:55The way Hunter Brown does it feels more dominant than Dallas Keuchel.
02:58You know, Dallas Keuchel doesn't do it with the sheer force that Hunter Brown does.
03:03Yeah.
03:04You know, he was more of a nibbler, but really good pitcher.
03:07And then I'd throw 20-22 Framber in there as well with the 25 straight quality starts.
03:12Those are probably the best.
03:14Hunter Brown is on the level with all these guys right now.
03:16Without question.
03:17Remember, it's been a few weeks now because it was earlier in the season, and Framber was on this ranking as well.
03:23But for the guys, whichever one of the advanced stats, the stat cast stats, it's the stuff ratings.
03:29Like, who's got the best stuff and the nastiest stuff.
03:32Hunter Brown was – the graphic they had showed in that game was he was the number one in the league.
03:39And it still very much feels that way, that he's just in full command.
03:45I mean, he's out there pitching like a veteran when it comes to how – like, can you be both –
03:51he's both aggressive but also even-tempered at the same time.
03:56He just doesn't – he doesn't worry about bad calls or anything like that.
03:59He's just out there mowing people down.
04:01And it's fun to watch.
04:03It's really – we talk about this team in a lot of ways just doesn't have the same personality as a lot of those Golden Era teams.
04:08Hunter Brown's – Framber's got a lot of personality.
04:11Yeah.
04:11Sometimes it's good.
04:12Sometimes it's a little scary.
04:13Right.
04:14But, like, Hunter Brown has a definite personality out there in the way that he plays.
04:18Like, you get a feeling with both of those guys that it just – it feels like Golden Era Astros.
04:25Hunter Brown's like an assassin, man.
04:26Like, he's just – he's cold.
04:28He's – so since – okay, so I got the numbers here.
04:31Since May 17 calendar year, Hunter Brown is 16-7 with a 2.04 ERA and almost 10 strikeouts per nine innings.
04:46I don't know what his whip is because it's hard to do that over two years.
04:49But suffice it to say, his whip is really good as well.
04:51And as you pointed out, Seth, if we're going to get advanced stat nerdy on this thing for the season of 2025,
04:57his fielding independent ERA that he has is the best in baseball.
05:01It's a 1.93.
05:02Like, there's nothing lucky going on with Hunter Brown right now and the dominance that he's showing.
05:08Whatever you're seeing with the eye test, whatever the box score is saying, more importantly,
05:13Hunter Brown is the rare guy you just look at the box score and just kind of write it off and go,
05:16yep, he was really dominant last night.
05:18Probably no – you know, probably no – you know, not a lot of line drives right at guys,
05:22although there were a couple of those last night.
05:24But he's – he's been great.
05:25He's on the level – like, when I think of great Astro pitching performances during this golden era,
05:31and I'll take it all the way back to 2015, to me, it's 2015 Keuchel.
05:35It's whatever peak Verlander year you want to pick.
05:38It's 2019 Cole, as you pointed out.
05:40It's 2022 Framber, and it's Hunter Brown of right now.
05:44Like, that's the mecca right there.
05:47So, we feel good about Hunter Brown.
05:49We're feeling better about Blanco and better about Framber.
05:52You know, like, no panic there or anything.
05:55Lance McCullers is on the mound tonight versus Uvalde.
05:58It's a big one, man.
06:00Yeah, this is a big one.
06:02It was – as far as it sounded when Calis talked about it the other night,
06:07that Wisneski's probably going to be gone for the year.
06:10Yeah.
06:10That's just – because he said he's likely out for the year.
06:15And that's all teams do in their old, hey, he's got discomfort.
06:17We'll find out more later.
06:18They're still at the front half of this stretch of baseball where they play 17 straight games.
06:24They've played seven.
06:25So, Lance McCullers starts tonight in the eighth game of this stretch.
06:29So, he'll get – you know, if we do the math here, he should get at least one more start in this stretch.
06:34Is there a level in terms of underperformance that Lance could have tonight where they eject from him,
06:42at least for the time being, putting him out there?
06:44I guess.
06:45Like, if he goes out there –
06:46Right.
06:46If he goes out there and doesn't get out of the first inning again, then what are we doing?
06:50You know?
06:50I know, and that's been the – I guess if you had seen Lance's numbers over his first couple of games,
06:56including he didn't allow a run in his first outing, but he was putting guys on base.
07:00I think you would think, oh, did he have another setback or was it injury or what have you?
07:05I mean, it's not like this has never happened before with a guy coming off of injury.
07:09But the fact that this is how it's been when he's healthy makes it – as long as there's not another health setback,
07:17I'm guessing that he's got one more bad performance allowance, especially because they –
07:23I mean, it's either him or Bluebaugh or somebody, you know, Colton Gordon.
07:29We don't know exactly what Colton Gordon's going to look like the next time he comes up.
07:32Yeah.
07:33And it's still relatively early in the season.
07:35Yeah.
07:35I'd say that, yeah, I don't think this is – like, this isn't an ultimatum night for Lance McCullers.
07:42Because the next one – the next one is going to be – if he stays in the rotation,
07:46if I'm doing my math correctly here, the next one will be against Seattle.
07:49You know, like, if he goes out there tonight and he's gone in an inning or two,
07:56maybe put him on the shelf until he figures a few things out and he's pitching in less important games.
08:01Well, I'll tell you what.
08:02All right.
08:02Now, this is where, you know, maybe we can hindsight criticize, you know,
08:06and be armchair managers with a spot.
08:08Sending Lance back out there for the fourth inning in his first outing just because he looked good in the third inning,
08:14but still getting right up and over his pitch limit, that's –
08:18Oh, dude.
08:19That might not have been the best decision in hindsight.
08:21Yeah.
08:22And I would rather tonight – look, you've had three pitchers go eight innings in the last few outings.
08:30The relievers are fresh.
08:32I would say just have Lance go out there with the mindset of an opener.
08:36And you're going to go out there for two or three innings.
08:38That's it.
08:39Just go throw your best stuff.
08:41And, yeah, yeah, go attack and what have you.
08:43And we're loaded up and ready.
08:45Don't worry about it.
08:46No matter how good you look, Lance, you could be throwing a no-hitter.
08:49We're pulling you after three innings.
08:50Yeah, yeah, maybe so.
08:51You're right because he – his last – that's a good point, man.
08:54His last rehab start was 71 pitches.
08:59I was shocked he went back out there.
09:01He ended up throwing 87 pitches in three and two-thirds innings in that start against the White Sox that he had.
09:07I'm with you.
09:08At the time, I'm like, wow.
09:09There's no shame in taking him out after three innings in his first start back after two and a half years off of Major League Baseball.
09:17You know?
09:17Yeah.
09:17I was very surprised.
09:19I was very surprised at the time.
09:21Didn't think too much of it.
09:22But you're right.
09:22Maybe that one-third of an inning – like maybe – we know Lance's arm is very temperamental.
09:26You know?
09:27Yeah.
09:27Maybe that did have something to do with it.
09:29I mean, the only wrinkle in that – they went into this kind of – you know, you're thinking –
09:34Gusto, my view, but into this stretch.
09:37He's not going to be available for that.
09:39So, I mean, it would be –
09:42He's a bad starter now.
09:44It could end up being an extreme committee.
09:46But, yeah, I don't think – but I don't think – it all depends.
09:50As long as he feels healthy, if he shows any kind of improvement on his pitch shaping or control or anything,
09:55I don't think it's going to be results-based.
09:57I think it's going to be based on just how do his actual pitches look and is in an improvement over last year.
10:01Yeah, he needs to stop missing by two feet on his breaking ball.
10:05You know what I mean?
10:05Like, he's –
10:06It was –
10:06He's wild right now.
10:08One of our listeners made a good point on – it was in the – I think it was in his first outing.
10:12Remember, he almost got out of the – I can't remember which inning he almost got out of where it was –
10:17it should have been a called strike.
10:19It was the last inning he was in there, and they took him out after that.
10:22Yeah, there was a ball he walked.
10:24It should have been a called strike, but at the same time, one of our listeners said,
10:27come on, you've got to give the ump a break.
10:28Nobody knew where that ball was going ever, like, on any of these pitches.
10:31Any of them.
10:32And he had given Lance a break on a couple of them earlier, yeah.
10:35Yeah, that's right.
10:35They had.
10:36Yeah, they had.
10:37They expanded the strike zone for him earlier in the game that time.
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