00:00What is the win projection total, according to the computers, for the Texans, and where do they stack up in the AFC?
00:08So, I'm going to start at the top here and see when we get to the Texans.
00:11See how many of these teams ahead of them are actually on their schedule, too.
00:15The team with the highest win projection total, according to the computers in the AFC, is the Baltimore Ravens at 11.6.
00:23And I know that they didn't play in the AFC title game last year,
00:26and that a lot of people may think Buffalo or Kansas City are better teams than Baltimore.
00:30I feel similar to you, and I felt this way last year, which is that Kansas City might be the team that's 15-2.
00:38Buffalo might be the team that has the two-seed.
00:41Baltimore is the team that can, whose A game, their A game is the best A game out there.
00:48Like, their A game kicks the ass of any other team's A game out there.
00:51And Baltimore's defense improved as the year went along last year, too.
00:55So, that's an interesting dynamic is, all right, do they have a better defense throughout the entire season this year?
01:01And, yeah, of all the – if you did the old, like, hey, if you've got to pick one of your teammates to be with you in a bar fight, who would it be?
01:07The Ravens have more guys like that on their team.
01:10Yes, the Ravens are one.
01:14The quarterback is one of them.
01:14Correct.
01:15Yeah.
01:15Like, if you – the physicality of the Ravens is just a notch above a lot of the other elite teams.
01:24Yep.
01:25Buffalo is second at 11.4 wins projected.
01:28Texans play Buffalo as well.
01:31Kansas City, third, 11.2.
01:33Boy, I wonder how many times in the last six, seven years Kansas City's been third in this exercise in the AFC.
01:39So, so far, these are all in lockstep with the actual Vegas win totals, too.
01:43So, no big surprises.
01:44No big surprises.
01:45She uses a lot of the GPS tracking data and everything, and a lot of stuff that maybe is kind of proprietary to the NFL.
01:52So, for whatever it's worth, she's in lockstep with Vegas on this.
01:56With what the Vegas win totals are for each of these teams?
01:58Okay.
01:59So far.
01:59Yeah, so far.
02:00So, Kansas City, 11.2.
02:02Denver is fourth at 9.5 projected wins, which I think is their Vegas total, exactly.
02:09That is their Vegas total, but if that's a fourth in the NFL, then, yeah.
02:13And fourth in the AFC.
02:15Fourth in the AFC, though, then, yeah, she's going to start to diverge a little bit, I'm guessing.
02:18Okay.
02:19So, and by the way, Denver, also on the Texans' schedule.
02:23Right.
02:23So, these are all –
02:25Yeah, and I'm actually – I mean, Denver's going to be fascinating.
02:28I can't wait for the Texans to play Denver.
02:30There's so much – there's so much actual grudgery from Texans fans in that, you know, Sean Payton – Sean Payton got money-whipped by the Broncos and then acted like he was the guy the entire time.
02:41I mean, acted like he didn't know what they were talking about when supposedly the Broncos also wanted D'Amico Ryans.
02:48No, they never told me that.
02:49No, they wanted D'Amico.
02:51We can –
02:51So, Denver is fourth.
02:59Fifth, Chargers, 9.3.
03:02Seth, are they on the Texans' schedule?
03:04That's what – yes.
03:05Indeed, they are.
03:06Yes, the Chargers are.
03:09Sixth, finally, Cincinnati Bengals, 9.1.
03:12They are not on the Texans' schedule as of right now.
03:15Maybe in the playoffs.
03:16Who knows?
03:16And then, finally, seventh on the list, the Houston Texans.
03:229 –
03:22Smack dab in the middle, Sean.
03:23Smack dab in the middle.
03:24Not getting too far ahead.
03:26Not falling too far behind.
03:27Now, Vegas has the Texans winning nine-and-a-half games.
03:30So, this is an insult since – your computers have insulted me.
03:34Yeah, slap in the face, damn it.
03:35Slapping the face.
03:36Honestly, if I were a computer, which I know a lot of people wonder, like, is Seth a computer
03:40or a human?
03:41Because, my God, he never messes anything up.
03:44That if I were a computer, I'd have a hard time looking at the Texans and knowing exactly
03:49what to make of that offense.
03:51I feel reasonably confident, if I'm a computer, about the defense.
03:54But that offense has got a rejiggered offensive line.
03:59You've got two rookies that might factor heavily at wide receiver in the receiving game.
04:04You've got C.J. Stroud just looking at the numbers.
04:07It was not nearly as impressive a performance last year compared to the first year.
04:10So, from a computer's point of view, nine wins feels about right if you take in the quality
04:16of the defense against all these unknowns on offense.
04:20Yeah, the thing that really helps the Texans, because you may say to yourself, nine wins?
04:25It means nine and eight?
04:26Like, is that going to be good enough?
04:27Here's the thing you need to remember.
04:29The other teams in the AFC South, Jacksonville, San Diego, 7.6 wins.
04:36Tennessee, 5.8 wins.
04:39Yeah.
04:40There you go.
04:40Yeah, the Texans still have the seventh toughest schedule based on Vegas win totals right now.
04:45That always changes, and every year there's a few schedules that look awful at the beginning,
04:49and they end up being easy.
04:51But that's where, like, nine and a half wins for the Texans by Vegas,
04:55that's going against one of the tougher schedules in the league.
04:58Yes.
04:59And that's where some of these games, for one, you've got to take care of business in
05:02the AFC South.
05:03But you look at the teams that are projected winners in the league this year, that are on
05:10the Texans' schedule.
05:11I mean, you've got the Ravens, you've got the Chiefs, you've got the Bills, you've got the
05:14Rams, you've got the Bucs, you've got the Broncos, the Chargers.
05:19Like, there's, and some of those are on the road.
05:21Like, they make up for, those opponents make up for the fact that you're also playing the
05:26AFC South.
05:27They cross over with the AFC West and the NFC West this year.
05:32Those are the two divisions that they play outside of the AFC South.
05:36They play the full complement of teams.
05:37This is a bad year to get both of those divisions on your schedule.
05:41I would say, look, the three of the teams in the AFC West are playoff teams and are projected
05:46to have more wins than you already.
05:47We just outlined that, Kansas City, Denver, and the Chargers, those are good football
05:51teams.
05:52The Raiders, by virtue of trading for Geno Smith, remove themselves from at least being
05:56a joke, you would think.
05:58So that's a harder putt than it was before, you know, before the offseason.
06:03And then the NFC West, there's no killer in the NFC West, but there's no sad sack in the
06:09NFC West either.
06:10It's not like the NFC South.
06:13Two or three teams that could be vying for the first pick in the draft.
06:16San Francisco is probably going to be better than they were last year at 6-11 just by staying
06:22healthy.
06:23Seattle is a competitive team that you're playing Monday night on the road.
06:26The Rams are a playoff team, and the Arizona Cardinals were 8-9 last year.
06:30They're not a joke.
06:31You get them at home, but they're not a joke by any means.
06:34You know, the 49ers are the team that's interesting because they're, I see the biggest gap between
06:41people and their power rankings, and it may be their projected win totals, and then the
06:46actual Vegas win total.
06:48Because the Vegas win total is 10-1⁄2.
06:49Yeah.
06:49But the 49ers, by Vegas win total, have the easiest schedule right now, and that could
06:56change.
06:56But as of right now, they've got the easiest schedule.
06:59And so it's interesting that Cynthia Froyland chose, she has the 49ers winning 9.9 games
07:04compared to the Vegas win total of 10-1⁄2.
07:07Yeah, this is where the 49ers get helped by having a bad season last year.
07:10They finished last in their division last year.
07:12Yeah.
07:12So their three variable games are all going to be against last place teams in other divisions.
07:17You know, the three games that depend on your record, and they cross over with the
07:21AFC South, which other than the Texans, was bad teams last year, you know?
07:26That's one of the emotional grudge matches.
07:27Big games on the schedule, the 49ers versus the Texans.
07:31You got the whole D'Amico factor and anybody else in the organization who's in San Francisco.
07:34Don't let that little nerd Kyle Shanahan eat your lunch, D'Amico, all right?
07:39He thinks he's, oh, I was his boss one day.
07:43No, I think D'Amico might be older than Kyle.
07:45Did Sloic go back to San Francisco?
07:47Where did Sloic go?
07:48No, he went to Miami.
07:49He went to Miami, that's right.
07:50He's working for McDaniel.
07:51That's right.
07:53That's right.
07:54Solid defense coordinator.
07:56And he brought, somebody else went to San Francisco, too.
07:59Oh, John Weeks.
08:00John Weeks did.
08:01Okay, so did you see Garrett, our former web guy,
08:04sent us a question about John Weeks?
08:06Not a single mention.
08:07This is when we were going through the schedule earlier.
08:10Garrett got mad at us.
08:11Not a single mention of the return of Texans legend John Weeks in week eight, eh?
08:15Do they show a highlight reel?
08:17Now, here's the thing.
08:18I think John Weeks is 100% worthy of a highlight video.
08:22I also think that a highlight video of a long snapper is a tough thing to put together, you know?
08:28Yeah, what do you think?
08:28That is really, really tough.
08:30I guess, you know, it would be big kicks.
08:31Running down on coverage, yeah.
08:33No, that possibly some of the, that would be fun, some of the tackles he's made.
08:37But then also, just the big kicks in history through various different kickers, that would be good.
08:42You know what it's going to be full of?
08:43And I say this with no, I say this with the utmost respect.
08:48It's going to be full of some of the charity things he's done.
08:51It's going to be John Weeks out at his toy spending spree that he does for kids at Target.
08:56It's going to be John Weeks.
08:57Probably did some stuff with the firehouses here in Houston because before becoming a football player, he was ready to become a fireman.
09:04So, it'll probably be a lot of the charity stuff.
09:05But, yes, John Weeks.
09:06But then also, you know, for a long snapper, I've always been, I get stressed out for long snappers when they're backed up and they have to punt.
09:14Oh, yeah.
09:14So, it's like an 11-yard snap.
09:16Yeah.
09:16Everything's got to be perfect then because you've got to get it off quickly.
09:19That'll make for a good copy.
09:20But one of those, that's what I'm putting my request out right now.
09:22Yeah.
09:22One of those and then a few of the big clutch field goal moments.
09:25Yes.
09:26And then a couple of his tackles on special teams.
09:28There you go.
09:29Whichever ones were most impressive.
09:30Yes.
09:30Sprinkle in a little charity and there you go.
09:34Your essential media team for week eight.
09:36There you go.
09:36Was there ever a long field goal attempt that went short and the defense tried to return it?
09:43I don't know.
09:45Because that's just for the novelty of it.
09:47I'd like to see it.
09:48Even if Weeks didn't make the tackle.
09:49I just want the novelty of it out there.
09:50Dude, he was here for 18 or 15 or however many years it was.
09:54There had to be one somewhere along the way, right?
09:57Yeah.
09:57You know, that's where NFL offensive linemen are the laziest on those long field goals.
10:02Yeah.
10:02Because what you're supposed to do on a long field goal like that, because the defense
10:05can return it if it's short, you're supposed to cover.
10:08Yeah.
10:08So you're supposed to run down like you're on punt team.
10:10Yep.
10:11Those fat SOBs never want to do it.
10:13And then every now and then when there's a big return, people are like, oh my gosh, can
10:16you believe that?
10:17You can't expect these guys to tackle that.
10:19No, you can expect them to at least jog 30 yards to be in position to make the play.
