00:00Yao Hanku is a former trade minister for the government of South Korea and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.
00:08I think this is a temporary pause and it remains to be seen whether this could lead to a really meaningful and structural change.
00:18So, yes, I mean, this is encouraging de-escalation, but I think we still have to see.
00:25I mean, are 90 days really going to be enough to address the long term challenges?
00:33It's not enough. You know, if you go back to the Trump first administration, it almost took two years to get to this phase one deal.
00:43And, you know, we also look at this, the U.S.-U.K. deal from last week.
00:50And there was only sort of a major kind of parameters included in this non-binding, you know, MOU type of agreement.
01:00And then they pledged to continue to work on this more detailed in a potential deal.
01:07So we have to see.
01:09You talk about MOU, so memorandum of understanding.
01:12And I think it's interesting because what investors want is detail, isn't it?
01:17And Trump has already talked about what's not included.
01:21What do you think it's going to take to get rid of that uncertainty longer term?
01:29Lowering this tariff well is important, but I think more fundamental, important thing is to, you know, bring back this certainty and predictability to the market.
01:42But still it's not clear how far all this flurry of tariff could go.
01:51For example, a few days ago, this new investigation on Section 232 on aircraft was initiated.
01:59And the pharmaceutical and semiconductor could come on any time.
02:04So I think this kind of more sustainable path of this new trade policy in the Trump administration needs to be really made clear.
02:18I mean, those are those are big industries that you're talking about and trade friction, you know, despite this temporary pause, if you like, this trade friction is pretty acute.
02:31And there are big worries about inflation, about the health and the impact it's all going to have on the global economy longer term.
02:37Do you think global supply chain dynamics have changed forever?
02:42It's difficult to imagine going back to this rule based WTO, you know, multilateral trading system for the time being.
02:52And I think this business needs to be prepared for this sort of a new normal of this trade environment.
03:00You're a former trade minister for South Korea.
03:02So give us an idea, having sat around the table, of what kind of thing it's going to take to push the dial, to get these talks towards something meaningful.
03:16I think both math and politics, obviously economics are important.
03:22I mean, if market really needs it, I think there will be big, big pressure for this negotiator to come to a more kind of reasonable, mutually beneficial term.
03:32But also this, in the end, you know, this politics really matter.
03:37I mean, if there is a political impetus to really push through, despite domestic opposition or, you know, whatever, you know, issues,
03:48I think this math and politics match, I think that's when we can expect a deal.
