THIS should be Shemar Stewart's goal for the 2025 season!

AtoZ Sports

John Sheeran discusses a realistic goal for Cincinnati Bengals first round pick Shemar Stewart in the 2025 season.

Transcript

00:00The Bengals drafting Shamar Stewart was one of the more polarizing decisions in the NFL draft,

00:04but it's no secret that the Bengals need Stewart to play well if they're to go far this year. So

00:08in this video, I'm going to give him a goal that he needs to achieve in order for the Bengals to

00:13achieve their success. Hi again, Bengals fans, John Sheeran of A to Z Sports Cincinnati here.

00:21And before we get started, I just wanted to quickly say a huge thank you to everyone who's

00:25helped grow this channel. We've recently surpassed a thousand subscribers here,

00:29and honestly, after eight months of producing content, that's amazing. So whether you've just

00:33watched, you liked, you've commented, you shared, or you subscribe, whatever it is that you've done,

00:37thank you for helping grow this channel. And though we may not always agree, I do appreciate

00:42every single one of you guys. And speaking of disagreements, a player that has been obviously

00:46very polarizing within the Bengals community has been first round pick Shamar Stewart. And now that

00:51the pick has been made, he's been a Bengal for almost two weeks now, it's time to start looking

00:55forward instead of looking back on the pick itself. And as the team's first round pick,

00:59it makes perfect sense for Stewart to be the first video in a series where I give each of

01:03the Bengals' first three draft picks a goal that they should accomplish as rookies. Now,

01:07like any useful goals should be, these goals are going to be trackable, they're going to be

01:11quantifiable, they're going to be realistic. One of Shamar Stewart's goals, for example,

01:15is to win defensive rookie of the year, which is a phenomenal goal to shoot for, but I'm going to

01:19shoot a little bit lower for him. But just because my goal for Stewart is going to be more

01:22realistic, doesn't mean him achieving it wouldn't help out the Bengals accomplish their goal for

01:27this season. Because at the end of the day, Shamar Stewart is the biggest addition the Bengals made

01:31to their pass rush this offseason. The only defensive lineman they signed in free agency

01:34was TJ Slayton, and he's obviously a run-stopping nose tackle, and they didn't draft another defensive

01:39lineman in the draft other than Stewart. And the goal for the Bengals is simple. It's been the same

01:43since making the Super Bowl in 2021. The goal is to get back there and to win it. So I thought to

01:48myself, if the Bengals did put together a pass rushing unit that was capable of winning the Super Bowl,

01:53what sort of mark would Stewart need to hit in terms of production? And surprisingly,

01:57I'm not really talking about sacks. I don't think that is the number that fans should be focused on

02:01for Shamar Stewart as a rookie in the NFL. Because if a player spent three years in college and didn't

02:05exceed one and a half sacks in any of those three years, what is the point of giving him a goal of

02:09getting like five or six sacks as a rookie at the NFL level? No, finishing sacks at a higher rate

02:14at the NFL level as a rookie is not something that I'm expecting to see from Stewart. But winning as a

02:19pass rusher, that is something that I need to see. So my rookie season goal for Shamar Stewart is to

02:24have a pass rush win rate of at least 10%. And 10% is not a random number here. I took a look back at

02:30the last five teams that won the Super Bowl, going all the way back to the 2020 Tampa Bay Buccaneers,

02:34you know, the team that completely ravaged Pat Mahomes in that Super Bowl, right? You're talking

02:38about those Bucs, the 2021 Rams, the Chiefs of 22 and 23, and the Eagles of this past season. And I looked

02:44very specifically at who was the fourth best pass rusher on each of those teams in terms of pass

02:50rush win rate, according to Pro Football Focus. And the average win rate for the fourth best pass

02:54rusher on all of those teams was about 10.9%. You're talking about a rookie George Karloffis who just

03:00exceeded 8%. You're talking about a second year player, day two pick in Terrell Lewis for the Rams,

03:05who was around 8% as well, but just under 11%. That is the expectation for your fourth best pass rusher

03:10on a Super Bowl winning team. Sometimes there are players with that mark who end up having

03:14a decent number of sacks. And sometimes there are players who have no sacks. Miles Murphy,

03:18the Bengals' first round pick from two years ago, is a great example of this because in his second

03:22season in 2024, he had a pass rush win rate of 10.2% and he had a grand total of zero sacks.

03:28But miraculously, he was still the Bengals' second best pass rusher in terms of his win rate.

03:33So obviously, if Stewart were to have a win rate of 10% this year and he was the second best pass rusher,

03:38the Bengals' pass rush did not make a jump that it needed to in order to compete for a Super Bowl.

03:42But if Stewart does hit that mark this year and he's the fourth best guy behind the likes of

03:46Trey Hendrickson, Murphy, and then one of Joseph Osai or BJ Hill, I think that's going to be pretty

03:50good. So wherever Stewart falls on the actual team leaderboard is not really part of this goal.

03:54I would just like to see him hit this mark as a rookie right out of the gate. Because getting past

03:58the tackle with speed and explosion and causing disruption and chaos in the pocket, that is

04:02something we should all expect from Stewart this year. Now, the finishing ability around the quarterback,

04:05that's a giant variable, right? We have no reason to expect it to be anything more than what it was

04:11at Texas A&M, at least to start his NFL career. But if he were to create enough chaos for others

04:16around him to convert pressures into sacks, that would be really good. And just for the record,

04:20Stewart's career pass rush win rate at Texas A&M was 11.4% and was 13.2% when just looking at these

04:26past two seasons. So 10% at the NFL, it definitely seems achievable for him. Obviously, sacks are a big

04:31part of Shamar Stewart's story already. They're going to be a big part of how his career unfolds.

04:36And we'll get there eventually. But for now, let's just focus on winning first and then finishing

04:40later. And there you have it. That's part one of this week's series. So make sure you tune back in

04:44later this week, where I give a goal for linebacker Demetrius Knight and guard Dylan Fairchild.

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