Why Trump Wants to Retake the Panama Canal Again
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00On the 20th of January, 2025, Donald Trump was formally sworn into office once again as America's president.
00:06During his inaugural address to the nation that day, Trump presented his vision of America and set forth his goals for the next four years,
00:13including re-establishing American control over the Panama Canal.
00:16Merely minutes after Trump declared during the speech that his proudest legacy would be that of a peacemaker and a unifier,
00:23Trump said that it had been a foolish decision for America to have ever given the Panama Canal back to Panama,
00:27falsely claimed that 38,000 American lives have been lost during the canal's construction,
00:33said that America has been treated very badly from giving up the canal and that it should have never happened,
00:37that Panama's promises to the U.S. have been broken,
00:40that American ships using the canal are apparently being severely overcharged and not treated fairly,
00:45and that above all, China is allegedly operating the Panama Canal now,
00:49that America didn't give it to China, it was given to Panama,
00:52and that America is going to take it back.
00:54To thunderous applause.
00:56These comments and threats made by the President of the United States towards Panama
01:00came on the heels of multiple previous threats before he was sworn into office,
01:05including during a 7th of January press conference at his Mar-a-Lago personal residence,
01:09where Trump threatened to use economic coercion to force Panama into giving up its control of the canal,
01:14and where he very pointedly refused to rule out using military force against Panama
01:18to regain control over the canal either.
01:21In the weeks that have followed the President's statements,
01:22there has been much speculation about what Trump actually intends to do regarding the issue.
01:27Panama's President, Jose Raul Mourinho, has stated that every square meter of the canal belongs to Panama
01:33and will continue to do so, and he has flatly rejected even the thought of entering into any negotiations over it.
01:40He has also flatly rejected Trump's claims regarding Panama allegedly overcharging U.S. ships
01:45and allowing China to operate the canal.
01:46But the temperature is continuing to get hotter, while Trump's interest in the Panama Canal is not seeming to just go away.
01:52Trump's comments during his inaugural address concerning the Panama Canal were spoken like a late 19th century imperialist,
01:59and they might seem like they came completely out of nowhere.
02:02Before Trump started talking about the Panama Canal at the tail end of 2024,
02:05it hardly even registered in the minds of the American public at all,
02:09and it barely even made it onto the list of the top 500 most pressing strategic threats to most Americans.
02:14But quietly behind the scenes, for decades, the issue of Panama's control over the canal
02:19has long been deeply contentious within a sector of the United States government.
02:24And far from coming from the 19th century,
02:26Trump's modern threats towards Panama are rooted in history that is far more recent than you probably think.
02:32But in order to understand where Trump's very public threats towards taking over the Panama Canal are suddenly coming from,
02:38and what could actually end up happening,
02:39it helps to understand the historical and geopolitical context behind the comments,
02:44and America's so complex and controversial relationship with the country of Panama and the Panama Canal itself.
02:51For many centuries, the idea of carving out a canal across the narrow isthmus of Panama
02:55to create a shortcut between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans was heavily contemplated,
02:59but it was never technologically possible until the advent of the Industrial Revolution.
03:03The first serious attempt to build a canal across Panama was started by the French in 1881.
03:07But after nine years of enormous effort and more than 20,000 workers who died in the process with little to show for it,
03:15the French abandoned the project by 1890 and went home.
03:19The U.S. government had always recognized the strategic and economic potential for a canal in Panama,
03:24since before its existence, the only way for America's Navy to move ships between its east and west coasts
03:29was to sail them the extremely long way around the entirety of South America,
03:34which greatly hampered the U.S. Navy's ability to quickly respond in force with all of its naval power at once
03:40during a crisis in either the Atlantic or the Pacific.
03:44Even a day with modern shipping technology,
03:46the Panama Canal saves about 16 days off of a ship's travel time between New York City and San Francisco,
03:52when compared to going the long way around South America.
03:54But America's interest in a canal across Panama increased even more dramatically
03:58during the administration of President William McKinley,
04:01arguably America's last openly imperialist president,
04:04and the only former president that Donald Trump mentioned at all during his 2025 inaugural address.
04:10McKinley led the United States into a victorious war against Spain in 1898,
04:15which led to the U.S. acquiring vast new territories around the world in Puerto Rico, Guam, and the Philippines,
04:20while he also separately oversaw the U.S. annexation of Hawaii in the same year as well.
04:25After acquiring this vast new overseas empire at the tail end of the 19th century,
04:30America became more interested than ever in the Panama Canal project,
04:34as a maritime shortcut that would enable its navy to respond more rapidly to threats to the new far-flung territories.
04:40And so, just a few years later in 1902,
04:43the U.S. government began entering into negotiations with Colombia
04:46to take over the previous French-led effort at building that canal shortcut across the narrow isthmus of Panama,
04:52which at the time was still a part of Colombia.
04:54But after a year of negotiations,
04:56the Americans and Colombians couldn't come to an agreement on the terms of a deal,
05:00and after the Americans grew impatient,
05:02they decided to throw their military support behind the increasingly strong Panamanian independence movement instead.
05:07The U.S. essentially encouraged revolutionaries in Panama with promises of support
05:12to revolt against their Colombian overlords near the end of 1903.
05:16And then, they deployed the U.S. Navy on both the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the territory
05:20to prevent the Colombians from launching an amphibious assault to reassert their authority.
05:25With a virtually impassable, dense jungle of the Darien Gap separating Panama from Colombia by land,
05:30the large U.S. naval presence effectively made it impossible for the Colombians to re-enter Panama
05:35and to enforce their rule of law over the territory.
05:37Thus, depending on your point of view here,
05:40Panama became free to declare their independence or their secession from Colombia.
05:44But there were some strings attached by the Americans for their support.
05:47The newly independent Panama immediately entered into negotiations
05:50with their supposed protector, the United States, on the Canal Project.
05:55But then, with Panama under heavy duress and with America possessing immense leverage,
05:59the U.S. basically threatened Panama that if they didn't agree to the heavily American-favored
06:04terms of a canal treaty, the U.S. would just abandon them by withdrawing their navy
06:08and all of their military protection, which would basically throw them to the wolves
06:12of the vengeful Colombian government that they had just seceded from,
06:16who would probably be quite eager to come back and crush their independence.
06:20So, effectively forced into choosing between their independence with American control over the canal
06:25or complete resubjugation under a furious Colombia,
06:28the independence leaders of Panama at the time chose the former,
06:32and what they probably believed was the lesser of two evils.
06:35So, near the end of 1903, Panama under this duress in the United States
06:40signed the Hei-Bunao-Varia Treaty,
06:42in which Panama granted the United States full sovereign control over an area of land in the country,
06:47covering five miles on either side of the planned canal route in perpetuity,
06:52but excluding the cities of Panama City in the south and Cologne in the north.
06:55This strip of land stretching clear across the isthmus of Panama became known as the Panama Canal Zone,
07:01and it effectively became an overseas, fully sovereign territory of the United States,
07:05that enabled the U.S. to construct the Panama Canal through it fully within sovereign American territory.
07:11The U.S. agreed to pay Panama $10 million up front and $250,000 a year in return for the territory in perpetuity.
07:19And then the U.S. finished constructing the canal through the territory a decade later by 1914,
07:24but at immense costs in both capital and in human lives.
07:28The U.S. spent nearly $500 million at the time on the canal's construction,
07:33equivalent to about $15.2 billion in today's money,
07:37while around 5,600 workers were believed to have been killed during the American period of construction
07:42due to accidents and diseases,
07:44with the overwhelming majority of those fatalities being workers who were brought in from the Caribbean region,
07:49rather than Americans.
07:51From then on throughout the era of American control,
07:53the Panama Canal Zone was primarily an asset of the U.S. Navy and military,
07:57that was frequently seen as vital for rapidly redeploying American military assets from the East Coast to conflicts in Asia,
08:04like during World War II, the Korean War, and the Vietnam War.
08:07But the Canal Zone's status as effectively a permanent outpost of the U.S. military in the middle of Panama
08:13also began causing significant unrest with local Panamanians later on in the 20th century, too.
08:19And it became a potent symbol of lingering U.S. imperialism in Latin America
08:24as the world entered into the Cold War.
08:26At a little more than 1,400 square kilometers in size,
08:29the Panama Canal Zone was a little larger than the contemporary British colony of Hong Kong.
08:33It was a heavily racially segregated exclave of the United States,
08:37full of U.S. military bases that sliced Panama in half geographically,
08:41complete with its own independent courts, police, and government.
08:44In the 1950s, during the era of decolonization that was sweeping throughout Africa and Asia,
08:49it seemed supremely hypocritical that the United States government
08:53was openly in favor of European countries relinquishing their African and Asian colonies,
08:57while they continued hanging on to the Panama Canal Zone.
09:00And so, Panamanian anger at the continued indefinite American control
09:04over a large segment of their country began evolving into protests.
09:08And in January of 1964, the building anger finally reached a boiling point.
09:13In response to the Canal Zone administration not allowing a high school in the Canal Zone
09:17to fly the Panamanian flag alongside of the American flag,
09:20a group of young Panamanian students decided that they would march to the Canal Zone's entrance in protest.
09:25But those protests quickly evolved into multiple days of deadly riots
09:29between the Panamanian people and the U.S. Army,
09:32in which millions of dollars worth of property was destroyed,
09:35and in which 22 Panamanian protesters and four American soldiers were killed,
09:40and hundreds of Panamanians were injured.
09:42The event is still regarded as a sacred occasion in Panama to this day,
09:46and is still commemorated every year in the country as Martyrs' Day.
09:50After those events, Panama severed its diplomatic relations with the United States,
09:54and stated that they would never be restored until the U.S. agreed to begin negotiations on returning the Canal.
10:00The LBJ administration in the United States at that time recognized that if the Canal continued remaining in American hands,
10:07the building anger rising in Panama at their presence would never just go away,
10:11and they'd have to keep using the Army to intervene forcefully from time to time to safeguard it.
10:16Which didn't exactly look very good in the greater region of Latin America
10:20that the United States was increasingly finding itself in Cold War competition over with the Soviets.
10:25As a result, the LBJ administration eventually came to an agreement
10:29that would have actually restored Panama's sovereignty over the Canal Zone.
10:32But then, Panama's civilian government was overthrown during a military coup in 1968,
10:37and the agreement was never ratified.
10:39A few years later, in 1973, during the Nixon administration,
10:42the United States even used its position on the U.S. Security Council
10:46to veto a UNSC resolution that would have demanded the U.S. return the Canal back to Panama.
10:51The international pressure and the rising temperature in Panama itself
10:55were both mounting on the U.S. position in Panama.
10:58And even Henry Kissinger himself,
11:00perhaps America's most controversial ever Secretary of State,
11:04absolutely poured himself into negotiations to return the Canal back to Panama.
11:09In 1975, he famously warned the Ford administration
11:13that there would soon be riots all over Latin America
11:16if the United States didn't renegotiate the original Canal Treaty with Panama.
11:21This was the heated atmosphere around Panama
11:23that Jimmy Carter found himself in when he entered the presidency in 1977.
11:28And he, more than any of his predecessors,
11:30was determined to finally resolve the issue.
11:33Far from the naive gift that some people have since tried to paint Carter's decision
11:37to return the Canal as, it was a highly strategic decision at the time
11:41to try and improve America's global image and its relations with Latin America.
11:45At a time, a fierce geopolitical competition throughout the region with the Soviets.
11:50So, later on in 1977,
11:53Carter and the de facto leader of Panama at the time came together
11:55and finally signed the Torquillos-Carter Treaties,
11:58which were ratified by the U.S. Senate the following year in 1978
12:02and did several things.
12:04The Carter Treaties dissolved the area of the Canal Zone
12:07and returned all of the land in the zone back to Panama the following year in 1979,
12:11while control over the Panama Canal itself would become jointly administered
12:14between both the U.S. and Panama
12:16until the final day of the millennium on the 31st of December, 1999,
12:21when at noon, during a formal ceremony,
12:23the canal's full control was finally handed over entirely to Panama.
12:28The Carter Treaties also enshrined a status of permanent legal neutrality over the canal,
12:32enabling it to be freely used equally by all of the nations in the world,
12:37while the United States was given the authority to defend the canal's neutrality militarily
12:41if it were ever to be threatened.
12:43But Carter's decision to hand the canal back over to Panama
12:46was not a universally popular decision back in the U.S.
12:49One of the fiercest critics of the decision at the time was none other than Ronald Reagan.
12:54When he was running for president in 1976,
12:57he made retaining America's control over the Panama Canal
12:59one of his most central foreign policy slogans,
13:02repeatedly saying in his speeches to thunderous applause,
13:06we built it, we paid for it, and we're going to keep it.
13:10Reagan's conservative wing of the Republican Party
13:12weaponized Carter's and the Democrats' decision to return the canal to Panama
13:15as an effective means to raise campaign money and enthusiasm.
13:19But then, once he became president,
13:21Reagan never took any serious action to actually reverse Carter's decision on the issue.
13:25It was entirely a campaign talking point for him to attack the Democrats with.
13:29And Trump might find that his modern comments about the canal
13:32have a similar political value that he feels particularly resonates with his very pro-Reagan base.
13:38Trump's threats about not ruling out military force to take back the canal today
13:41appear to most Americans as being completely out of left field.
13:45But most Americans have also forgotten that it wasn't really that long ago
13:49since the last time the U.S. military launched a full-scale invasion into Panama.
13:53But pretty much every Panamanian today over the age of 40
13:57remembers well the night of the 20th of December, 1989,
14:01when tens of thousands of American soldiers invaded their country.
14:06The then-dictator of Panama, Manuel Noriega,
14:09had once been a close ally of the United States and was even an informant for the CIA.
14:13But after it was revealed in the late 1980s that he was actually a drug-trafficking kingpin,
14:18relations began to deteriorate,
14:20and he began shifting Panama's geopolitical alignment closer to Cuba,
14:23Nicaragua, and the Soviet Union instead.
14:26Tensions began simmering, and in 1989,
14:28Noriega annulled the results of Panama's general elections that appeared to show his party losing,
14:34transitioning him into a full-blown dictator in the process
14:37who was deeply unpopular with most of his own people.
14:40The George H.W. Bush administration demanded that Noriega step down from power,
14:44and after an American soldier was killed by Panamanian forces at a roadblock in the country in December,
14:49the Pentagon finally decided that the time had come to remove Noriega by force.
14:54Codenamed Operation Just Cause,
14:5626,000 American soldiers stormed into Panama overnight on the 20th of December, 1989,
15:02with guns blazing and rapidly overwhelmed Noriega's government forces.
15:07Noriega himself was captured and extradited to the United States to face trial and prison.
15:12While 23 American soldiers were killed, and another 324 others wounded.
15:17True to their word, the United States did not take advantage of the situation
15:21after they found themselves occupying Panama.
15:23All of the previous Carter-era treaties regarding the canal were upheld,
15:26and democracy was fully restored to Panama.
15:29While the invasion itself that toppled the dictator Noriega was broadly popular in Panama at the time.
15:35Nonetheless, in addition to the around 300 Panamanian soldiers who were killed during the invasion,
15:40around 214 Panamanian civilians were also killed by the fighting.
15:45A very large number of them in a densely populated neighborhood in Panama City that caught on fire.
15:51At the time, and in the greater context of the American invasion being seen as a restoration of democracy mission,
15:57this tragedy was generally accepted as a tragic incidence of collateral damage.
16:02But during a potential Trump-authorized mission to seize the Panama Canal in a land grab today,
16:07such incidents of civilian fatalities in the densely populated cities that surround the canal
16:12would be met with nothing less than the absolute fury of the Panamanians today.
16:18And since the canal was fully transferred over by the Americans to complete Panamanian control at the end of 1999,
16:23the Panamanians themselves have completely transformed the canal from just being a tool of the U.S. military into that,
16:30plus a major global trade artery that it never really was beforehand.
16:35The Panamanian government invested $5 billion of their own money into expanding the Panama Canal
16:40with a wider system of locks that opened up in 2016,
16:44that have enabled larger container vessels than ever before to transit through it.
16:48Now, because the canal currently represents the fastest maritime trade route between China and the U.S. East Coast and Brazil,
16:54it's since gotten to the point where about 13,000 vessels, or around 6% of all global maritime trade,
17:00will pass through the canal now in a given year,
17:03which provides roughly $2.5 billion worth of annual revenues to the Panamanian government in the form of tolls and fees.
17:10The canal now comprises roughly 7.7% of Panama's entire annual GDP,
17:15and it's also a tremendous symbol of pride for the small country.
17:19But the canal also remains critical to the U.S. economy and military today as well.
17:2340% of all U.S. container traffic continues to pass through the canal per year.
17:28The United States also continues to remain by far the canal's largest single user,
17:33while the U.S. military still uses the canal extensively to rapidly redeploy its fleet of nuclear submarines and warships
17:40between the Atlantic and Pacific theaters.
17:42Now, this gets us back to Trump's two principal allegations and complaints towards the Panama Canal today,
17:48that Panama is allegedly overcharging U.S. merchant and naval vessels to use the canal,
17:52and that the Chinese military is secretly controlling the canal.
17:56Before he took office,
17:57Trump warned that if Panama didn't reduce the rates they were charging American ships to use the canal before he assumed office,
18:04he would demand that the U.S. be returned the Panama Canal,
18:07quote,
18:08in full and without question.
18:10So, let's address the first of Trump's claims here,
18:13that Panama is allegedly overcharging American vessels that are using the canal.
18:16It is true that over the last couple of years,
18:20Panama has been raising the prices they charge on ships passing through the canal,
18:24but that's almost entirely been because the canal is fed by a large freshwater lake nearby to it called Lake Gatun.
18:31And due to a recent serious drown in Panama,
18:33the lake's water levels have been significantly declining,
18:36which has reduced the physical limit to the number of transits through the canal that can actually happen.
18:41Less transits through the canal being possible because of physics and a steady demand
18:46inevitably meant that toll prices were going to have to rise,
18:50and Panama raised their prices evenly across the board for all ships,
18:54regardless of their national origin.
18:56Trump has argued that American ships using the canal should not have been subjected to these evenly distributed price increases,
19:01since American ships are by far the canal's largest customer.
19:05But American ships were never specifically singled out for price increases over every other nation's ships.
19:10Panamanian authorities have also suggested that even if they wanted to give preferential rates to American ships using the canal,
19:16it would almost certainly violate the 1977 Carter-Torquillo's treaties that legally enshrined the canal's permanent neutrality status.
19:25Giving American ships using the canal preferential rates over other nations
19:28would probably be seen as a violation of the canal's neutrality internationally.
19:33And there's almost no telling what kinds of unforeseen chaos that could lead to.
19:37Moreover, American warships have hardly paid anything to actually use the Panama Canal recently either.
19:43Over the past nine years combined, going back to 2016,
19:46the U.S. Navy has only paid about $17 million worth of transit fees to Panama to use the canal.
19:52Which, in the infamously bloated world of the U.S. military spending,
19:57is basically little more than a rounding error.
19:59Now, let's address the other claim about the Panama Canal that Trump has been using recently
20:03to justify a potential American reacquisition of it through force.
20:07That it's supposedly being run by Chinese soldiers rather than by Panama itself.
20:12This is, to put it simply, not true.
20:14But that doesn't mean that there isn't a small kernel of truth behind Trump's statements and concerns here.
20:20It is a fact that recently, Panama has been greatly increasing their relations with China.
20:25During Trump's first term in office in 2017,
20:28Panama severed its relations with Taiwan and chose to extend its diplomatic recognition
20:32of the communist Chinese government based on the mainland instead.
20:35While the Panamanians only informed the American ambassador to their country
20:39about the decision a mere hour beforehand.
20:42And since then, China has made significant economic inroads into Panama.
20:46Panama became the very first country in Latin America
20:48to join on with China's Belt and Road Initiative investment program.
20:52And China's President Xi Jinping personally visited Panama himself in 2019.
20:57Since joining the Belt and Road Initiative,
20:59China has invested around $1.4 billion into Panamanian infrastructure programs,
21:04compared against the $3.8 billion of total lifetime direct foreign investment
21:09into Panama from the United States.
21:11Meaning that China has been rapidly catching up with American investment in the country.
21:15China has also become the second largest user
21:18of the Panama Canal itself.
21:19Though it still distantly trails the use of the United States.
21:23In the 1990s, as Panama was preparing to assume full control over the canal from the U.S.,
21:28the Panamanian government held bidding processes
21:30to operate cargo terminals and ports along and near the canal.
21:34Several international companies won rights to these facilities during this process.
21:38But among them was a company called Hutchison Ports,
21:41a private company that is a subsidiary of the conglomerate CK Hutchison Holdings
21:45that's based in the semi-autonomous Chinese city of Hong Kong,
21:48who, in 1997, won the rights to manage two of the ports in Panama
21:53on behalf of the Panamanian government,
21:55one at Cristobal on the Atlantic side and another at Balboa on the Pacific side.
21:59At the time, the awarding of these ports to a Chinese company based in Hong Kong
22:04on opposite ends of the Panama Canal rose alarm bells in Washington.
22:08But after the U.S. State Department at the time extensively researched the issue,
22:13they released a report in 1999 just before the handover that concluded,
22:17quote,
22:18We have not uncovered any evidence to support a conclusion
22:21that the People's Republic of China will be in a position to control canal operation,
22:26end quote.
22:27However, CK Hutchison acquired the rights to those Panamanian ports
22:30during a time when Hong Kong was still a firmly autonomous city within China
22:35that maintained significant separation from the Chinese Communist Party and the mainland.
22:40More recently since 2020, however,
22:42after China passed the Hong Kong National Security Law,
22:45the Chinese Communist Party has dramatically increased their direct control over Hong Kong
22:50and Hong Kong's prior autonomous status has been severely compromised,
22:54which has led to the probability of much heavier Chinese government influence
22:58extending into Hong Kong-based companies than beforehand,
23:01like CK Hutchison.
23:03The U.S. government was then further alarmed in 2021,
23:06when Panama renewed CK Hutchison's concessions to the ports for another 25 years,
23:12extending them into 2046.
23:14On their own, there's nothing that's necessarily nefarious about CK Hutchison's control of these ports.
23:20In addition to the two that they operate in Panama,
23:22they operate another 51 other ports all around the world,
23:25throughout Europe, Latin America, Africa, Asia, and Australia.
23:27But that hasn't silenced the national security alarm bells being ringed in America
23:32over their ports in Panama.
23:34The new American Secretary of State selected by the Trump administration, Marco Rubio,
23:39said during his recent confirmation hearing in the Senate,
23:42quote,
23:42If these companies control both ends of that canal in a time of conflict,
23:46and the Chinese tell them,
23:47shut it down and don't let the U.S. go through there,
23:50we've got a big, big problem.
23:53A big economic problem and a big national security and defense problem,
23:58end quote.
23:58He also argued that China could use the ports to,
24:01quote,
24:02turn the canal into a choke point in a moment of conflict,
24:05and that is a direct threat to the national security of the United States,
24:09end quote.
24:11Now, while the ports C.K. Hutchison operates are indeed at opposite geographic ends of the canal,
24:16they are not in themselves gateways to enter into or exit out of the canal.
24:20They are ports that handle and process cargo,
24:23and ships don't have to pass through either of them in order to enter or exit the canal.
24:27But that isn't to say that they aren't still a potential threat to America's interests.
24:32During a potential time of war or in the events leading up to one,
24:35the Chinese government could apply pressure on C.K. Hutchison
24:38or even nationalize the company to exploit its assets,
24:42like the ports in Panama.
24:43The People's Liberation Army could hide soldiers or saboteurs amongst the port's workers.
24:48And with China's increased grip over Hong Kong,
24:51the fear is that C.K. Hutchison is in no position to ever tell Beijing no.
24:57Already as it is,
24:58the ports on either end of the canal could report directly to Beijing
25:01the types and frequency of American warships and submarines transiting through the canal,
25:06potentially giving China an idea of which ocean America's warships and submarine fleets are in at a given time.
25:12In the lead up to a war over Taiwan,
25:14it's conceivable that China could intentionally use a ship
25:17to ram into one of the bridges that crosses over the canal,
25:20like what happened in March of 2024,
25:22when a container ship lost power and hit the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore,
25:27which caused the bridges collapse and closed the port of Baltimore to maritime traffic for the next 11 weeks.
25:33China could also deliberately crash a ship within the Panama Canal,
25:36like the accidental crash that took place in the Suez Canal back in 2021,
25:40when a crashed container ship completely blocked the Suez Canal for more than six days.
25:45In the lead up to a war over Taiwan's future,
25:48the U.S. Navy would absolutely use the Panama Canal
25:51to most rapidly transfer warships and submarines from the East Coast into the Pacific.
25:55If a covert Chinese military operation based out of one of C.K. Hutchison's ports in Panama
26:00managed to successfully sabotage the canal,
26:03however, it could potentially prove to be decisive.
26:06It would force American warships and submarines on the East Coast
26:09to take the much longer journey to the Pacific around the whole of South America
26:13that would add an extra 16 days onto their travel time.
26:1716 critical extra days worth of time
26:19that would enable the People's Liberation Army Navy
26:22to assault Taiwan without having to worry about significant American reinforcements
26:26arriving from the East Coast.
26:29It is this particular concern that's attracted the fury
26:31and the attention of the new Trump administration in Panama.
26:35But there are many, many other options on the table
26:38that the United States could take to resolve this fear
26:40short of a full-blown invasion,
26:43taking the canal back through force.
26:44The U.S. or Panama or both of them together
26:47could always just offer to try and buy out the C.K. Hutchison ports
26:50to remove China's presence that way.
26:52The company could always refuse a buyout, though,
26:55perhaps under pressure by the Chinese government.
26:57And in that scenario,
26:58the Panamanian government could consider just nationalizing the ports
27:01with an appropriate level of compensation.
27:03Under this nationalization scenario,
27:05Panama would need substantial support from the United States to even consider it,
27:09because China would almost certainly be incredibly outraged,
27:12while other companies would be worried about the precedent set
27:15that Panama could suddenly nationalize their own assets as well.
27:19One way that Panama has been seemingly trying to cool down the temperature
27:22and appease Trump has been by announcing
27:24that they'll launch a financial audit into C.K. Hutchison's ports in the country.
27:28It's possible that that audit could produce grounds
27:30for the Panamanian government to revoke the company's concessions to the ports,
27:34and presumably appease Trump in the United States in the process.
27:38But it also could just turn up nothing, too.
27:40The U.S. government could also demand that Panama implement stricter background checks
27:44on the workers employed by the Chinese-run ports, too.
27:47And, of course, Trump could also resort to either economic or military force
27:51to take over the canal as well.
27:53Economic force would likely not be a very effective path to pursue here, though.
27:57If the U.S. imposed sanctions on Panama over the issue,
28:00it's almost certain that they would be completely unilateral
28:03and that no other country in the world would ever join in on them.
28:06Unlike the U.S. sanctions regimes on other countries
28:08like Russia, Iran, or North Korea.
28:11This would undermine the U.S. sanctions on Panama
28:13because Panama could always just trade
28:15with just about any other country they wanted.
28:17And it would, without a question,
28:19push Panama away from being what is today
28:21a close U.S. ally and partner,
28:23and push them even further into the hands of China instead,
28:27worsening Trump's base level of complaints
28:29about the situation even further.
28:31Without a question, though,
28:32the absolute worst option on the table
28:34that the Trump administration could possibly pursue
28:37would be a full-blown invasion of Panama
28:39to take the canal back through military force.
28:42First of all, prior to Trump's recent comments,
28:45Panama was overall a pretty staunchly pro-American country.
28:48Their president is a conservative,
28:50while the mayor of Panama City,
28:52the largest city in the country,
28:53has openly been a huge fan of Trump and America
28:57on his social media profiles.
28:58Panama has also cooperated extensively
29:01with the U.S. of restricting migration
29:03through the Darien Gap,
29:04the treacherous, wild jungle of a passageway
29:06that most migrants from Venezuela, Haiti, and Ecuador
29:09take from Colombia on their journeys
29:11towards the United States.
29:13If the U.S. military invades Panama
29:15and forcefully seizes the canal,
29:17this cooperation in the Darien Gap
29:19will be ruptured permanently.
29:21By going back on its words so flagrantly
29:23on the 1977 Carter-Torjeos treaties,
29:25the U.S. would also cause
29:27irreparable diplomatic and reputational damage
29:30to its own global image.
29:32Trump's arguments of the Panama Canal
29:33being historically American
29:35and retaking what should rightfully belong
29:37to the United States
29:38would appear no different at all
29:40from Vladimir Putin's arguments
29:41about retaking historical Russian territory in Ukraine,
29:45or Xi Jinping's arguments
29:46about retaking historical Chinese territory
29:49in Taiwan or the South China Sea,
29:51all of which would catastrophically undermine
29:54America's diplomatic soft power in the world,
29:56and would more than anything else
29:58highlight America's hypocrisy
29:59for all of the world to see.
30:02In theory, an armed American invasion
30:04in a Panama today would be even easier to accomplish
30:07than it was the last time 36 years ago,
30:09back in 1989.
30:11Panama doesn't have any standing army at all today.
30:14It only maintains a small,
30:15lightly armed internal security force
30:17with limited equipment
30:18and an annual budget
30:19that's only equivalent to about five hours
30:22worth of the U.S. military spending.
30:24The U.S. military could rapidly overwhelm Panama
30:27and seize control back over the canal
30:28if they really wanted to,
30:30but that would only be the very beginning
30:33of the nightmare that would then follow.
30:35Unlike America's 1989 invasion of Panama
30:38that overthrew an unpopular dictator
30:39and restored the country's democracy,
30:41a modern invasion to seize control
30:43over the Panama Canal
30:44would only be seen as nothing other
30:46than an imperialist land grab.
30:49Major urban environments exist around the canal,
30:51including Panama City,
30:53with more than a million people
30:54directly adjacent to the Pacific side's entrance.
30:58Damage could be caused to civilians in the area,
31:00while the invading force would inevitably be met
31:02with massive and potentially violent protests
31:05very near to the theater of operations.
31:08If the Panama Canal Zone's territory
31:09was restored by the invaders,
31:11they would find themselves in a small enclave
31:13completely surrounded by more than 4.3 million
31:17furious Panamanians.
31:19An armed insurgency against America's
31:21regained control of the canal
31:22would almost certainly become inevitable,
31:24and the U.S. would find itself
31:26in a brand new quagmire
31:28attempting to constantly defend the canal
31:30for an indefinite amount of time.
31:32Modern offensive technology
31:33will also make protecting the canal
31:35against a hostile Panamanian population
31:37in the millions
31:38even more difficult than it was in the past.
31:41The world has recently observed
31:42the power of drones
31:44that the Ukrainians have weaponized against Russia,
31:46and that the Houthis in Yemen
31:48have weaponized against ships in the Red Sea.
31:50Insurgent Panamanians,
31:52potentially armed and supported
31:53by America's enemies abroad,
31:55would make frequent attempts
31:56to sabotage the canal's operations,
31:59and they would inevitably end up using
32:00cheap explosive drones
32:02to constantly attack the canal itself
32:04and American warships and submarines
32:06transiting through it.
32:07Panamanian insurgents
32:08could attack the canal enough
32:10to make it impossible
32:10for insurance companies
32:12to agree to insure
32:13anything that passes through it,
32:15similar to what the Houthis
32:16have already done
32:16with drones in the Red Sea
32:18or what the Ukrainians
32:19have done with drones in the Black Sea.
32:21It would literally turn into
32:22a constant military nightmare
32:24for the U.S.
32:25trying to maintain its hold
32:26over the restored canal zone,
32:28and it would require
32:29a constant, heavy U.S. military presence
32:31permanently deployed there
32:32and constantly fighting
32:34that would be very costly
32:35in terms of both lives and money.
32:37Panama will never negotiate
32:39on relinquishing their control
32:41over the canal ever again.
32:43The canal is fundamental
32:44both to Panama's modern identity
32:46and to Panama's modern way of life.
32:48There is simply no scenario
32:50in which Panama will agree
32:51to give the canal up
32:52or to sell it.
32:54And that means
32:54that Trump's threats towards Panama
32:56are either meant to pressure them
32:57into cutting their ties with China
32:59and kicking out
33:00those Chinese-owned ports,
33:01or he really is serious
33:03about actually invading.
33:04Since Panama simply won't negotiate
33:06or sell the canal,
33:08Trump's only actual option
33:09of returning the Panama Canal
33:11back to American control
33:12will be the military option.
33:14And that's also
33:15the absolute worst decision
33:17that could possibly be made.
33:19And everyone
33:20with any potential influence here
33:22should do everything they can
33:24to ensure that that option
33:25is never actually allowed to happen.
33:28Over the past month,
33:29with all of Trump's comments in action
33:31since he re-assumed
33:31the American presidency,
33:33it seems that a normal year's worth
33:35of events have all been condensed
33:36into just a matter of weeks.
33:38Through January alone,
33:39we not only had Trump's threats
33:40about reclaiming the Panama Canal,
33:42but Trump's threats
33:43towards establishing American control
33:44over Greenland as well.
33:46The tariff showdown
33:47that Trump launched
33:47against Canada, Mexico, and China,
33:49while we also saw the start
33:50of the first long-lasting ceasefire
33:52in the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza,
33:54after 15 months
33:56of nearly continuous war between them.
33:58We saw the Houthis and Yemen
33:59de-escalating by announcing
34:01that they would cease attacking
34:02American and British maritime shipping
34:03in the Red Sea,
34:05while we also saw the Russians
34:06gaining significant ground
34:07in eastern Ukraine,
34:09with the capture of several
34:10strategic cities
34:10in the Donbass Theater,
34:12like Toretsk and Shasav Yar,
34:14while we also saw the U.S.
34:15conclude that the rapid support forces
34:17in the Sudanese Civil War
34:18were guilty of committing
34:19genocide in Darfur,
34:21while Rwandan-backed rebels
34:22in the Democratic Republic
34:23of the Congo
34:24captured control over a huge city
34:26with a population
34:27of over a million people.
34:28Every month,
34:30so many important things
34:31are currently happening
34:32from developing conflicts
34:33around the world
34:34that it's almost impossible
34:35to actually keep up with it all,
34:37no matter how well-informed
34:38you try to be.
34:39I wanted to start creating
34:40one new video a month
34:41that covers all of these
34:42increasingly major developments
34:44from conflicts
34:45taking place around the world,
34:46to help you stay
34:47as up-to-date as possible
34:48on what's taking place
34:49in our world and why
34:50during this time
34:51of global conflict.
34:53And that's why I created
34:54my new War Room series,
34:56a monthly video briefing series
34:57that covers all of the most
34:58significant geopolitical updates
35:00from conflicts taking place
35:01around the world,
35:02that you need to be
35:03the most well-informed about.
35:05The latest episode
35:05in this series
35:06covers all of the most
35:07important conflict developments
35:08that took place last month
35:09throughout January
35:10that you might have otherwise
35:11missed in the noise.
35:12But unfortunately,
35:13due to the inherently violent,
35:15controversial,
35:16and obviously very recent nature
35:18of discussing in detail
35:19the evolving developments
35:21of ongoing global conflicts,
35:22a series covering all of this
35:24on YouTube would almost
35:24certainly become demonetized
35:26and age-restricted.
35:27Which ultimately would mean
35:28that YouTube's algorithm
35:29would never promote
35:29the series to you
35:30and you would probably
35:31never get to see any of it.
35:33But thankfully,
35:34I was still able to produce
35:35this series every month anyway
35:36because of the power
35:37of this video's sponsor,
35:39Nebula,
35:39where you can go and watch
35:40the January episode
35:41of War Room right now.
35:43I'm also releasing new episodes
35:44on War Room over there
35:45covering major global conflict updates
35:47every single month.
35:48While I also have dozens
35:50of exclusive full-length
35:51real-life Lord documentaries
35:52on Nebula as well
35:53in my separate
35:54modern conflict series,
35:55giving you deep dives
35:56in a major recent conflict
35:58that would otherwise
35:58also be demonetized
36:00and age-restricted
36:01if they were on YouTube.
36:02With current documentaries
36:03ranging from the ongoing
36:04Russia-Ukraine war,
36:05to Israel's wars with Hamas,
36:07to the Myanmar, Sudan,
36:08Yemen, and Syria civil wars,
36:10and tons of others
36:11with new episodes
36:12getting released
36:13every single month as well.
36:15And what's even more,
36:16you also get access
36:17to all of the other
36:17amazing exclusive content
36:19that's available on Nebula.
36:20Because the best part
36:21about this site
36:22is that it's jointly co-owned
36:23by all of its creators,
36:25built by myself
36:26and hundreds of other
36:27YouTubers and podcasters.
36:29And because it's
36:29a subscription-based service,
36:31we all get to work
36:32on way bigger
36:33and higher budget productions
36:34over there
36:35than we could ever do
36:36on YouTube.
36:37That's why there's tons
36:38of other exclusive content
36:39that you'll find
36:40equally fascinating
36:41from all these other creators
36:42over there
36:42you probably also
36:43already know as well.
36:45And best of all,
36:46if you sign up
36:47by clicking the button
36:47that's here on your screen
36:48right now
36:49or by following the link
36:50that's down below
36:51in the description,
36:52you'll receive an insane
36:5340% discount
36:54off of an annual subscription.
36:56Which means
36:57it'll only cost you
36:58$3 a month
36:59or $36 a year
37:01for all of this
37:01awesome exclusive content
37:03from myself
37:04and hundreds of other
37:05independent creators
37:06with even more stuff
37:07getting added
37:08every single month.
37:09And if you already
37:10have a Nebula subscription
37:11and you want to gift one
37:12to a friend or a loved one,
37:14you can now do that as well
37:15with a gifted subscription
37:16with the same discount
37:17by following the link
37:18that's down below
37:19in the description as well.
37:20It's the absolute best way
37:22to help support
37:22what I'm doing here
37:23on Real Life Lore.
37:24And as always,
37:25thank you so much
37:26for watching.