پاکستان کے ساتھ مکمل جنگ کیوں ضروری؟ ٹرمپ کس کا ساتھ دیں گے؟ امریکی پروفیسر کی رائے جانئے

ETVBHARAT

امریکی ماہر پروفیسر ڈاکٹر مقتدر خان بتاتے ہیں پاکستان کے ساتھ کشیدگی میں بھارت کے پاس کیا آپشنز ہیں؟

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02:50Obama had interfered with saying that I will do this resolution.

02:55Donald Trump also said that if India says that I will do this resolution.

02:59So India's standard answer was that this is our bilateral issue.

03:02Neither UN nor US.

03:04There will not be no doubt in Kashmir.

03:07But that was based on the SIMLA Accord of 1972.

03:10If the SIMLA Accord is finished,

03:13then Pakistan has a chance to get involved with third parties.

03:16OIC, Saudi Arabia, or even the UN.

03:21So I think that the SIMLA Accord is not in India's interest.

03:25But I believe it's a challenge that they have to calibrate it right.

03:30If we fight a small war,

03:33then we will have the power of Pakistan and the government.

03:36Because now the public is against them.

03:39The army has no respect and the government has no legitimacy.

03:43But if there is a small war,

03:46then the public will be behind this government and this army.

03:50It will back them.

03:51Right?

03:52Yes, if there is a big war,

03:53then their economy will lose their assets.

03:55Their assets will lose a lot.

03:56They will lose 10-15 years.

03:58But that will also cost India.

04:00So Narendra Modi has to calibrate it so carefully,

04:04so carefully,

04:05that they will not do so much as international episodes.

04:08But they will not do so small as Pakistan feels it can retaliate.

04:11You can retaliate.

04:12You have the State Department of State Department of the U.S.

04:16They have to do so much work.

04:17They will have to do so much work.

04:19What do you think?

04:20The administration of the U.S.

04:22Donald Trump's administration.

04:23Is the whole issue,

04:25who are saying that the government is against some war,

04:27they will have to give them to the government?

04:31So,

04:32until the question of Donald Trump,

04:34he has no stakes in Pakistan.

04:36I mean,

04:37Pakistan is now completely isolated internationally.

04:39Not OIC countries,

04:40not Saudi Arabia,

04:41not UAE,

04:42Iran.

04:43No one is interested in helping Pakistan.

04:45Now,

04:46the question is,

04:47will the U.S.

04:48back India?

04:49I think they will verbally back it.

04:52But,

04:54there is nothing serious support coming to India.

04:56Because,

04:57Donald Trump has so many problems.

04:59It is quite possible that our economy will go into recession.

05:02And,

05:03China is not playing the way we expected.

05:05It will fall down.

05:06Inflation is going to be the chances of the economy.

05:08So,

05:09he is very internally focused.

05:12And,

05:13he wants to change the culture of America and politics.

05:16So,

05:17he is not interested in these peripheral issues.

05:19But,

05:20he wants India.

05:21India is an important country.

05:22Fifth biggest economy.

05:23India is a fifth biggest economy.

05:24India has a relationship with India.

05:25So,

05:26you can say,

05:27if India does not do something really major,

05:30which is because of America,

05:32it is causing the global order.

05:34So,

05:35you can say,

05:36if you have a license to a great extent to India,

05:38to do whatever it feels is necessary in this issue.

05:41But,

05:42India has a limitation.

05:43Look,

05:44there are two risks for India.

05:45There are two risks for Narendra Modi.

05:46One is a policy risk.

05:47The policy is not going to be backfired.

05:48Look,

05:49last time,

05:50the pilot was shot.

05:51They were shot.

05:52They were shot.

05:53In India,

05:54there were a lot of things in India.

05:55There were a lot of things in India.

05:56But,

05:57the rest of the world doesn't believe that an F-16 was shot.

06:01But,

06:02the rest of the world doesn't believe that an F-16 was shot.

06:05But,

06:06you don't want something.

06:07That's a policy failure.

06:08If someone will die,

06:09or the plane will fall.

06:10But,

06:11there is a political risk.

06:12If the public is not happy,

06:13that you have to jack up them,

06:14rhetorically,

06:15they are expecting you to do something big.

06:16And,

06:17if the public is not happy,

06:18that you have to jack up them,

06:19rhetorically,

06:20they are expecting you to do something big.

06:21And,

06:22if you have to do six,

06:23six,

06:24six,

06:25six,

06:26ten,

06:27then,

06:28that's not going to happen.

06:29So,

06:30he has to face both the political risks.

06:31And,

06:32actually,

06:33I was very surprised to see,

06:34that,

06:35the first time,

06:36I saw Congress,

06:37a hard question,

06:38when they asked,

06:39this is an intelligence failure.

06:40In the past few months,

06:42India's intelligence,

06:44I mean,

06:45raw,

06:46they have missed so many things.

06:47It's a complete disaster,

06:48that,

06:49you know,

06:50what's happening in Bangladesh.

06:51And,

06:52if India's allegations,

06:53that,

06:54that,

06:55the regime change,

06:56that,

06:57that,

06:58that,

06:59that,

07:00that,

07:01that,

07:02that,

07:03that,

07:04that,

07:05that,

07:06that,

07:07that,

07:08that,

07:09that,

07:10that,

07:11that,

07:12I have this in my mind.

07:13The British,

07:14that there is no accountability.

07:15So,

07:16there is some pressure

07:18coming from Congress,

07:19that that intelligence failure is,

07:20that the devil is about too hard.

07:21There's a failure is also a failure.

07:22As I told you in my talk,

07:24Once I told him,

07:25I'm just an ordinary person.

07:27I also went on vacation but he said that I would judge myself that it was not safe and I didn't take my family there.

07:37I have two questions.

07:39First of all, the U.S. has said that the first success has gotten in trade negotiations.

07:50Do you think the effect of the U.S. is going to be in trade negotiations?

07:57Do you think the effect of the U.S.?

08:02Do you think the effect of the U.S.?

08:06J.D. Vance was very interesting.

08:10I think that J.D. Vance has said that India is going to be the first country to have a bilateral trade agreement.

08:28Look, it's not a free trade. It's a bilateral trade.

08:30It's not a free trade. It's a bilateral trade.

08:31You know, different items will be different.

08:33I think that India has already...

08:36Look, it's the first concessions.

08:38It's the first negotiations.

08:40India has already got tariffs.

08:42Then India has already...

08:44The biggest doubt about Donald Trump is that there are trade barriers.

08:48It's not just tariffs.

08:49There are trade barriers.

08:50There are tariffs.

08:51And there are imbalance.

08:53So we are trying to keep it.

08:55In India a few weeks ago,

08:59I bought a rough-haal for $7.4 billion.

09:02I am very proud that in America,

09:03I have noticed that if India is taking 7.4 for a rough-haal,

09:07then where are F-35 for F-35?

09:09Which means that India will not buy unnecessary things.

09:12Which is very good.

09:14But the trade is that the $43-48 billion trade deficit

09:18will be able to bring it.

09:20So Trump will demand that they will buy some things.

09:23and so politically be it's very dangerous already farmers

09:38and I'm very happy

09:40I'm very happy

09:42I'm very happy

09:44I'm very happy

09:46I'm very happy

09:48I'm very happy

09:50I'm very happy

09:52I'm very happy

09:54but it is important

09:56that this is the most progressive voice

09:58in the world

10:00conservative trend

10:02Putin

10:04Narendra Modi

10:06Hungary

10:08Argentina

10:10what is happening

10:12democratic backsliding

10:14civil society institutions

10:16media

10:18or even independent judiciary

10:20they are all less

10:22progressive voices

10:24it is important

10:26they come together

10:28and decide

10:30there are some things

10:32we need to fight

10:34for example

10:36this is not

10:38this is a semi-progressive party

10:40indian congress

10:42and this state is run by a semi-progressive party

10:44which is not

10:46majoritarian politics

10:48so I think that progressives

10:50will go back to their countries

10:52motivated

10:54that there is hope

10:56that we can fight

10:58in the future

11:00this is the

11:02country

11:04that is the

11:06country

11:08that is the

11:10country

11:12Vikas Koshik, ETV Bharat, Hyderabad

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