India suspends Indus Waters Treaty after terror attack: Water war now in play?

India Today

In this episode of First Things Fast, Manish Adhikary explores the complex history of this treaty that has always been a bone of contention between the two neighbouring nations.

Transcript

00:00The Indus system irrigates over 80% of Pakistan's cultivated land.

00:04The Indus and its tributaries provide drinking water to over 90% of Pakistan's population.

00:10About 30% of Pakistan's electricity comes from hydropower.

00:13With the Indus system as the key artery.

00:16It was our jugular vein. It is our jugular vein.

00:20No, Asim Munir, Kashmir is not your jugular vein.

00:23The Indus river is.

00:25It feeds its farms, lights its homes and quenches its cities.

00:29Without it, Pakistan's economy, food security and energy grid would probably collapse.

00:34If India turns the Indus tap even slightly, Pakistan does not just feel a squeeze.

00:39It chokes.

00:40A day after the Pahlgaam terror attack, India suspended the Indus waters treaty with Pakistan for the first time ever.

00:47An agreement that outlived four wars, countless terror attacks and 64 years of hostility is now on ice.

00:53Quick throwback. The treaty, signed in 1960, split the rivers.

00:57India got the east, Satlaj Bias Ravi.

00:59Pakistan got the west.

01:01Indus Jhelam Chinab.

01:02Now, India can stop sharing river data.

01:05India can build storage on the Indus Jhelam Chinab, which would basically mean we stop the flow of these rivers into Pakistan.

01:11And even flush out dams without asking Pakistan.

01:14Also, no more Pakistani officials visiting Indian dam sites like Kishan Ganga and Ratla.

01:18Basically, Delhi is free to play big with the rivers.

01:22But it's not like Pakistan's taps will dry out tomorrow.

01:25India does not yet have the infrastructure to block water immediately.

01:29And before you ask, no, India cannot just break up with the treaty.

01:32There is no exit button.

01:34Only a dispute resolution system.

01:36Now, Pakistan can try arbitration.

01:38But even Pakistan's former law minister once said, if India walks away, there's not much the courts can do.

01:44This water war has been simmering for a while.

01:46In 2023 and 2024, India already served two notices asking for a review and modification of the treaty.

01:53Especially over Pakistan's objections to new hydroelectric projects in Kashmir.

01:58And just this year, a neutral expert appointed by the World Bank ruled he can decide on India's and Pakistan's dam disputes.

02:04But observers in India are also waiting to hear from Beijing.

02:07China controls the headwaters of major Asian rivers, including the Indus,

02:11and has repeatedly refused to share water data with lower riparian countries like India.

02:16China has also built or is building multiple dams on these rivers, including in occupied territories,

02:22altering natural flows, accelerating glacial melt, and disrupting the ecological balance across South and Southeast Asia.

02:29But bottom line, the world's most successful water sharing deal just cracked wide open,

02:34and the ripples could last for years.

02:37I'm Manisha Dikari.

02:39First things fast.

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