On today’s episode, Editor in Chief Sarah Wheeler talks with Lead Analyst Logan Mohtashami about what's happening with Trump’s Godzilla tariffs and the battle with Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Related to this episode:
Could the US-China trade war see some relief? | HousingWire
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/could-us-china-trade-war-see-relief-trump-tariffs-liberation-day/
Enjoy the episode!
The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.
Related to this episode:
Could the US-China trade war see some relief? | HousingWire
https://www.housingwire.com/articles/could-us-china-trade-war-see-relief-trump-tariffs-liberation-day/
Enjoy the episode!
The HousingWire Daily podcast brings the full picture of the most compelling stories in the housing market reported across HousingWire. Each morning, listen to editor in chief Sarah Wheeler talk to leading industry voices and get a deeper look behind the scenes of the top mortgage and real estate stories. Hosted and produced by the HousingWire Content Studio.
Category
🗞
NewsTranscript
00:00Welcome, everyone. My guest today is lead analyst Logan Motoshami to talk about the
00:08latest on Trump versus Powell and on Trump's Godzilla tariffs. Logan, welcome back to the
00:14podcast. It is wonderful to be here from sunny Florida and had the White Lotus shirt. You know,
00:21we came out of smoke at an event. Everyone loved it, of course. The Nerd Tour is very popular,
00:25by the way, everyone. And another crazy week. It has been a crazy week. So we are here in person.
00:33So we're doing this in person, which is interesting. And we met some fans on the first
00:38night that talked about how they loved watching this on YouTube. And I was like, really? They're
00:42like, no, that's how they like it. They like to see the facial expressions. So yes, if you guys
00:47really like to enjoy how you just shut down troll people, come to the YouTube page and watch me
00:53challenge all the trolling men out there to live debates. And they all know I don't want to. I
00:58don't want to. Okay. Yes, that's a good thing. Okay. So as you just alluded to, we have so much
01:04going on. It feels like it's hard to keep up, especially if there are multiple things in a day
01:12that Trump says it might change, you know, things about tariffs. So let's start at the top. What do
01:18you feel like is happening right now? So the question is, did Trump fold on China and Powell
01:26and the markets? It's another crazy week. You know, we're thinking, no, we're going to go full
01:32blown Godzilla tariffs. He's going to fire Powell too. Oh, well, we're not going to fire Powell. And
01:38we might be a little bit more, less stringent to China. The reality is that China is not letting
01:45them play bully ball on them and didn't even look like there was any negotiation. And the clock
01:51is ticking. And this is the problem with trade wars in America. We have a two year political cycle
01:57where China doesn't. And we decided to start a world trade war with everybody and our allies.
02:04And Japan came out this morning and said, listen, we're pushing back here because China is a big trade
02:10partner of ours. So what's the deal? And what's happening is now time is taking its course. And
02:18now everyone gets to see what happens with trade wars, right? It's not so much the first base
02:24inflationary effects. It's now we're going to have supply shortages in a few months because the whole
02:30function of the global markets are now being put on disarray. So we see this in freight data. We see
02:37this in trucking data. Last night, the Atlanta Fed's business inflation expectations just shut up
02:46vertically, which Fed President Bostic must love. Today, this morning, Thursday morning,
02:55Fed President Waller comes out and goes, hey, listen, I'm going to try to look through that
03:00inflation because if the labor market starts to break, we're going to cut rates, you know,
03:03jobs are at risk. So you've got a lot of things. But the question is, did Trump fold or is he just
03:11trying to like find a way to kind of get out of the Godzilla tariffs, which, by the way,
03:16Peter Navarro did this. All of you can blame Peter Navarro. He went Godzilla tariffs, tried to do
03:21bully ball, but with everyone. And when you try to do it on everyone, better have a pack, like a pack
03:27or something to where you could get a deal done. And now they're, it's like in limbo. So whatever
03:34positive things you see in the markets, it's because deals are going to be made.
03:39Right. I think one of the new variables is that maybe Trump didn't, the Trump administration didn't
03:44expect China to go back to their trading partners and be like, don't, don't make some good deal.
03:50That's bad for us because, you know, who do you, who do you want more? And I think in Japan,
03:53they specifically talked about that. Yeah. It's, you know, it is an interesting tactic to
04:00go after allies and neighbors and big trading partners, and then go Godzilla tariffs times three
04:08on China, then come back and say, Hey, by the way, everyone, let's work together against China.
04:13And it's just time, right? Time. And then it's the whole Peter Navarro left the office. Come on,
04:20let's go in there and get Trump to do the 90 day reprieve. So it just seems a little
04:25kind of Mickey mouse at this stage. But the question now is what if the courts say the tariffs
04:33are illegal? You know, that's an out for Trump. If he wants one, what if Republicans say, Hey,
04:39listen, we're going to get slaughtered in the midterms. If this, if this keeps going, so get a deal
04:45done, or we're going to have to get a veto proof kind of to take tariff SPACs. We're starting to
04:51get into that stage to where the markets are up today. The 10 year yield is down to, you know,
04:58a four 31 stocks are up. We had a very interesting day in the markets where the 10 year yield that
05:04fell over overnight news, but then Trump and the set said something. So we're very headline driven
05:09right now, but that 435 level people go look at that 435 level on the 10 year yield. If everything
05:15is constant, there was no Godzilla tariffs or anything work off of economic data. That's kind
05:21of where we should be. So we're just hovering around this area until we start to get hard data
05:27that starts to go negative. When does the hard data come in versus what we're seeing on like what
05:32you call the soft data surveys, things like that. So here we are today. Jobless claims came out
05:36222,000, still very low. New home sales came beat estimates. Just always remember,
05:43if you look at the new home sales, the last few years, whenever rates go down,
05:46picks up a little bit, rates go up, picks down. I mean, we're just basically hovering in a very
05:49small range going nowhere for years now. Existing home sales expected month to month declines,
05:55but still over 4 million. So that, that, that data line looks good. Durable goods order,
06:00super big, right? People are front loading tariffs. So
06:03the hard data will start to appear probably in July and August, more noticeably. It is interesting
06:12because we have so many data line sets of people trying to get ahead of tariffs. So remember,
06:19bullwhip effect in economics, it's going to be very, very hard. Again, COVID was the ultimate
06:25bullwhip effects on, on data, but we're starting to see how we could see sharp reversals in, in,
06:31in certain things that are, are, are very tariff related. But the surveys are getting weaker.
06:37The, the hard data, labor data, still firm. We always focus on new home sales with the economic
06:43cycles because of residential construction workers. It's, it beat estimates, but it really has not
06:48done anything for years. So if there was no tariffs, hypothetical, hypothetical. Now there's a
06:57debate. Where would the 10 year yield be? Where were mortgage? Because the Fed was like, Hey,
07:01listen, we're almost at neutral. We don't know if we want to. So, but the 435, if you guys did,
07:06if let's take Godzilla tariffs or tariffs away from the equation, look at the economic data,
07:12look at the 10 year yield on the headline, it looks pretty normal, but it's now going out. So this is a
07:18market. To me, the markets still believe they're going to be a deal. If there isn't a deal,
07:24then there's a lot more downside of stocks. There's a lot more downside on corporate earnings.
07:28If that can happen, companies are withdrawing guidance for the year, or some of them are
07:34going, okay, this is if we get a normal environment and this is what will happen if we get full blown
07:41trade war. So we're getting to the stage where you're going to have to pick your side because
07:46time is starting to take its course. And I think it's not so much that Trump folded with China.
07:52He just can't do bully ball and get something done because the Chinese apparently weren't really
07:58talking. I know this morning, Trump said, oh, we talked to China this morning and stuff. So
08:02it gets into a little bit more interesting, but this week has been very good for seeing how the
08:07market reacts. To me, the market acts better when there's trade deals and the market acts worse.
08:15But three different times, we've seen three different reversals on the 10 year yield to the upside,
08:20which I know is what the White House doesn't want on kind of talking tough on trade. So
08:26we'll see. I mean, again, it's going to be the weekend soon. What happens on Sunday night? We
08:32always go Sunday night tweets and how that reacts. But clearly, President Trump went on TV and says,
08:40I don't intend to fire Powell now.
08:43Okay. So this was a big deal. We've, of course, been talking about this for a couple of weeks.
08:47You've written different articles. We've had several podcasts about it. So from your perspective,
08:52what does that do? That was intended to stabilize things, calm things down so that everyone felt
09:00like, hey, I'm not about to mess with the reserve currency of the world.
09:04What did Q say to James Bond?
09:07Never let him see you bleed and always have an escape plan. And I think threatening Powell at that point
09:16it kind of showed your cards, right? We're all we're all playing poker here, right? We're all
09:22playing poker against against the trade war. When you're that aggressive. Listen, Trump's going to
09:29talk down everyone. That's not that's not abnormal, right? If you want to sit there and talk about you
09:34should have rate cuts, fine. But when you're starting to threaten firing now, and Kevin Warsh,
09:41who Trump wants to replace, Powell is saying, no, Omi, don't do it, man. Don't do it.
09:45It's a bad idea.
09:46Just listen. And Powell is going to leave next year anyway. You and I have talked about this. Like,
09:53how would I handle this?
09:54How would you handle this?
09:55If you told me, first of all, I don't believe in this whole trade war concept,
09:58like going back to December of December 16th, actually December 16th, 2016. I think I wrote that
10:04article about this, about this whole process. But if you told me what, you got to figure out a way
10:11to do this. I would have waited. I would have waited until I got my tax cuts implanted. I would
10:18have, if you want to like get rid of income taxes, I would have waited to that because
10:22hypothetical, the Republicans like to do this. Lower taxes. So make it harder to raise them.
10:28Oh, let's get rid of it all. 150K and under no taxes, tariffs will replace it. We joked about
10:34this is how wealthy we were like from 1870 to 1913. Like the 52 years was the life expectancy
10:41back then. There was no social security, Medicaid, Medicare, or anything back then. The whole world
10:45has changed. That's why we do not like to talk about economics pre-World War II, especially pre-1933
10:51also. So whatever you want to do with tariffs, see if you can get it done. Let Warsh come in,
11:00take Powell's spot, then go after it. This is what happened in 2016, 2017.
11:04He set the backdrop up for better, but going in aggressively and doing tariff on, tariff off,
11:11then everybody calls your bluff. And then we said, he can't, he's got to do something. We can't sit
11:15here for four years and doing that, that meme for the next, uh, uh, a few years. And now it feels
11:22like, Hmm, they're kind of stuck here. So it's not so much, I think folded. It's like maybe change the
11:28tactics in this. And this is the problem with trade wars. They're not easy as you could see.
11:35Okay. So if you're in housing, if you're in housing, you're staying out there,
11:39what is going on? So we're already seeing some stories. We're looking into it. Like
11:43at what point do people who want to buy homes, you know, for different reasons,
11:47you know, uncertainty is not great for any market. In my opinion, we, we see this in different parts,
11:53but even when it comes to the housing market, um, uncertainty is not great. You and I, you would
11:58say, let's, he would say, we know this, that if you're ready to buy a house, you buy a house. Um,
12:04you might not buy a second house right now. You might not be using your, if you're in Silicon
12:08Valley, your 401k that's, that's tanked. You might not be using that to, you know, help your down
12:12payment or whatever it is. Um, your investments, not your 401k. So it, there is a lot of uncertainty
12:19at what point do you think this is hitting the housing market yet? At what point does that happen?
12:24The 10 year yield matters more than confidence. Okay. I've just, I I've looked at the data for
12:30decades and the rate variable. And I'm again, another premise here. Um, we have now had what a few
12:39months of tariff headlines. We're going to get, you know, the next stage of hard data hitting us,
12:45but I promise you if the 10 year yield fell like 1% mortgage rates or 5% since we're working at the
12:51lowest levels of sales ever, COVID was a great example. Y'all want to talk about a crazy period.
12:58Literally people thought, am I going to die? Yeah. And, uh, and, uh, for those that don't remember
13:04April 7th, 2020, I always ask everybody when I do these nerd tours, were you hoarding toilet paper?
13:10What were you doing on April 7th? Yeah, I was, I was probably, you know,
13:14hunkered down at home. Yeah. Okay. So COVID-19 recovery model saying that it's going to recover,
13:20but it's going to recover fast because as soon as behavior changes, because that was a stopping of
13:26behavior, that was like, that was the Titanic Godzilla of we all stopped doing everything.
13:31Right. And then it's like, we're still alive. Mortgage rates are at 3%. So millions and millions
13:38of people buy homes every single year, regardless of what happens. They did it in 2008. They did it
13:42in COVID. They did it in 2023. They did it in 2024. So what's the constant data right now? Because the
13:4910 year yield fell this year, uh, we see the new home sales purchase application data up 14% month to
13:56month, 5% year over year, uh, purchase application data still, even with this suite,
14:01even with the reversal and higher rates still up 6% confidence to me, withdrawing means a bigger
14:09pullback. Like we should be down 20% being down 20% on purchase application is, is very acceptable.
14:16When you see very negative shocks, that would be normal, but we're just hovering around the lowest
14:21levels. We always joke that at every event, the last time purchase application data was this low,
14:27no doubt was the top band gangster paradise. No joke. Go back to the 1990s. Do you know my hair in
14:35the 1990s? How it was? Wow. I had blonde hair. I had bald head. I had you, um, wild thing. I did that
14:44haircut in the movie. I don't know. I don't know what that is. The baseball movie. I forget, but you
14:50guys, you guys will understand Vaughn comes in, throws a hundred mile fastball, almost kills
14:55everyone. Uh, had the lines in the hair. So 1990s had its own little vibe, but that's where purchase
15:01application. We have a lot more people in that, right? A lot more households. So it doesn't take
15:05much to move to yield. But so far this year, the one variable that's different is a 10 year yield fell
15:11this year. Last year, the 10 year yield rose, uh, uh, in January. So if you want to see the equilibrium
15:17difference in the data, it, to me, it's just that, uh, um, but if we have authentic fear and
15:23everything pullbacks, you'll see it in there. I mean, shooting down lower. So let me ask you this,
15:29then obviously, um, you know, you've, you've said a couple of things like this happens, that's
15:33inflationary. That's not good for rates. What do you think, is there any way to even say what rates
15:38are going to do in the short term because they're, because things are changing so fast every time,
15:43you know, there's a white house announcement. So there's, there's two theories on this.
15:48The 10 year yield has to go higher because inflation expectations go, are going higher
15:53right now. Okay. I, that's a perfectly acceptable theory. That's not really happening. Um,
16:02the fed funds rate 65 to 75% of where the 10 year yield can range within an economic cycle is fed policy.
16:09Go back decades. You could see this, the forecast this year, 10 year yield, 470 to 380. We move off
16:15of economic data. Economic data has been getting softer, softer, softer. This is with the trade war
16:22headlines. We haven't seen the hard data break, right? Jobless claims has a break. Residential
16:27construction workers haven't lost their jobs. So if that data gets weaker, Christopher, uh, Waller,
16:34fed president today said, I am going to cut rates fast. By the way, he's auditioning for
16:39the job, right? Forget Kevin Rorsch for, uh, Waller and Bowman. They're both auditioning for the job.
16:45Everyone's there saying labor over inflation. Yes. And they're making it public too. So guess who's
16:51going to love that? Oh, I want that guy. I want that lady as my friend president. This is what I
16:56want to hear. So it's not coincidence that this is all happening now. Um, but, uh, to me again,
17:04if the labor data starts to break and the, and the fed has told us written that these are one-time
17:11price offs, but they can be inflationary, be persistent. It's hard for me not to see them
17:18cutting. And then if they cut, if they cut just 1%, it's easier to get to 6% of that. And remember,
17:25it's a labor market's breaking. There are things that, you know, the government could do to,
17:30to stabilize the economy if they want to do that or not, but, uh, uh, it gets more interesting when
17:36jobless claims starts to go up. So from your perspective, the, the prospect of having lower
17:42rates really rests on the fed, not where the bond market might go right now. The bond market has
17:46tried to break the fed a few times. Gandalf for most of you, remember we said labor market isn't
17:53breaking. We've got to hold the line, right? You're not going to, you know, you shall not pass
17:57reversed, uh, hoard or twice. Don't you dare tell y'all be, don't say don't know. Okay. That in
18:06itself held the line twice. Now if we actually broke it, the only time we broke that three 80
18:11line is when we had three really bad job reports, but that was last year, the 10 year yield went
18:16lower last year reversed here. The labor data is not breaking. We just assume things might get worse
18:24or the markets are going, they're going to do a deal. See the markets to me are, are basically
18:28kind of saying they'll eventually do a deal. Nobody really believes we're going to have this
18:33protracted long tariffs are going to stay here forever. And this is, we're going to change the
18:37economy. If they did the whole things, the whole thing would be different, but we have political
18:41cycles here. Uh, and there's a lot of griping already wait until there's stuff not on shelves and
18:49you have to pay higher prices and all guys, you get, you, you get the vibe here, right? Trade wars
18:55are not easy. If you want to do bully ball and make deals quick. Okay. But Ty, the clock is ticking
19:02here. We always said he's got a window because if the labor data breaks, it's just harder. It's
19:07harder to do these things when jobless claims are rising. And you've also said, you know, of all of
19:12your, the partners or all the people that you do trade with China's one of the hardest because
19:17they're, you know, they're a dictatorship. They do not have a midterm elections coming up.
19:22Their cycle is much longer. And, you know, they, they're taking this opportunity to see what deals
19:28they can make and how they can strengthen their trade partners. So they don't really, you know,
19:33they can wait it out. The talk this morning was that the Chinese are going to just see,
19:39cause they don't need to rush anything. Uh, Mark Carney from Canada basically said the old
19:43relationships with America is over after what Trump said. I don't even know what he said,
19:47I'm sure he probably said something about raising tariffs even more. Um, it's difficult. It gets
19:54more challenging. And why? Cause Peter Navarro is doing this because Peter Navarro, this has Peter
20:00Navarro all, all, all over him. You're forcing bully ball. And if people don't play, it gets a little
20:06bit more difficult. If you're trying to do deals, like we're, we're, we're sitting here talking here,
20:10assuming that they're going to do a deal at some point. What if they don't?
20:16What if they don't, what guys think about this? What if there's no deals made for two years?
20:22What's going to look, what's it going to look like? It's it's, there's going to be a lot more
20:25chaos. So, um, this is why this week I thought there's a lot of people who say Trump folded his
20:31cards. A lot of conservatives are mad about that because it's like, why do we even go through all
20:36this? But remember this has Peter Navarro written all over it. And this is why they had to run into
20:43the white house when he left the room. This is what we're doing. Oh, Peter Navarro's gone. Let's
20:48go again. Hey, Trump tweet this, right? Put this on social media. We'll do a 90 day. The markets don't
20:53like it. And they have to make sure he come. That's not, no, no, we don't make world policy
20:59because one guy leaves the room. Okay. So, um, we'll wait for the weekend. Uh, we'll have another
21:06podcast to talk about other stuff, but, uh, this week was interesting in the sense that
21:10him flipping on Powell and then talking a little bit less, but you gotta, you gotta deliver
21:16something, you know, the, the tariff on, tariff off was one thing, but.
21:20I think, you know, we, we've talked to a lot of people at this event. It's been a great event.
21:24And, um, we talked to some lenders and generally speaking, the people we talked to were, were
21:29people who were supportive of like, Hey, we think these are, these are not bad things like
21:32the immigration. That's not a bad thing. The tariffs. Okay. It's the execution that people
21:37are feeling very uncertain about. And, and also kind of like, can we do it better so that it's
21:41not so disruptive to markets because that doesn't help anyone, even if they support the underlying
21:47issue. You could all see why they want the 10 year yield flow, you know, because if, if the,
21:54you remember playbook, number one, Trump waited two years, he waited two years, got his tax cuts,
22:01got everything that went into a trade war tap dance, very light version of it.
22:06And it caused chaos back then. Now it's like, so we talked about from start November 7th,
22:122024, this is not the best backdrop to do something like this. So you got to be a little bit more
22:21careful. So we'll see, we'll see, uh, uh, what got the later today brings what tomorrow brings,
22:28what the weekend brings. But, uh, uh, you, there is a, there is a slight kind of sea change right
22:35now in, in the mindset that he folded, but there's nothing until you see things signed,
22:42uh, and Vance's now, uh, Oh yeah. Okay. The movie was major league Rick Vaughn. Yes. I had a Rick,
22:50I had his haircut. I did the whole line things, but now I joke that they brought Vance in and I did a
22:55gif of Vaughn coming in on, you know, they're, they're trying to close deals, let the set come
23:00out here and, and, and try to work Wall Street and tell things, by the way, it is a little bit crazy
23:04that they are telling Wall Street investors beforehand that they're, uh, uh, negotiating
23:10deals that then all of a sudden stocks built. But, um, yeah, uh, uh, it, it looks like they're
23:16changing the strategy up and we'll see, we can, we got to take this one day at a time. I mean,
23:20it literally, what we say in the morning can change two hours later and the markets react to
23:25any headlines. And I think that's part of the sonar amplification of social media is that everyone
23:31gets their news like this in a second and the markets react like very instantly, but somebody
23:36might not read it until eight o'clock at night. Uh, uh, and so I think markets are very fidgety,
23:42right? And we see the sharp reaction, both positive and negative now. Okay. I did want to
23:47circle back because you keep saying if, if the, um, fed just lowers rates by 1%, if they go into a rate
23:55cutting, um, mode, do you think they would do 1% right away? Or are you saying like, oh, no,
24:00no, no, no, no. It really depends. Again, same, same premise as always since 2022,
24:05the labor market runs their show, right? The growth rate of inflation. We do these events.
24:09I show the growth rate of inflation has fallen a lot, right? Global pandemics,
24:13very inflationary than the disinflation, but why aren't we sub 6% mortgage rates? Because
24:19fed policy is up here. And, uh, uh, uh, they said it purposely that the only thing that's ever
24:26nudged them was the labor data. And they've told us it is amazing to me. I've literally could take
24:31all the clips. So the fed president said, well, if the labor market changed, the jobless claims,
24:35we track that labor market, labor market, labor market. And it's like, people think they're
24:40not serious. Yeah. It was always labor over inflation. Paper, rock, scissors.
24:45Oh, wait. Okay. I do. All right. Yes. On the rock, paper, scissors, which is the correct way to say
24:57that. And I'll get haters for it. Okay. So, Oh, putty. Oh, okay. Yes. Okay. Let's, let's finish.
25:04And then we do have one important thing to talk about where I found some, you know, normally I'm
25:09the one who has no cultural reference, uh, you know, he'll bring up a, uh, you know, some movie,
25:14or I have no idea what he's talking about this. This is crazy. Okay. We're going to talk about
25:17now since I just did that. Okay. So we're walking around this beautiful Amelia Island resort where
25:22dark matters having their, um, where they're having this conference. They have all these things set up
25:27and we pass by a miniature golf course. And I say, Oh, that's so great. Putt, putt. I haven't played
25:34putt, putt in forever. And Logan is like, what did you just say? And I was like,
25:39putt, putt golf. And he was like, what is, we don't call it putt, putt golf. I've never heard
25:44that term. That's crazy. Mini golf is the same as putt, putt golf. I've never heard putt, putt.
25:49Okay. This is a West coast. This is a Tupac versus Biggie thing. Okay. So I grew up all over.
25:54I mean, not the West coast, but like the West coast, we don't call it putt, putt. We call it
25:59miniature golf. Okay. So we need our listeners to weigh in. Am I crazy or is Logan crazy? I think it's
26:06Logan this time. I mean, mostly it's me on the cultural references, but like, who doesn't say
26:10putt, putt? Who doesn't say that? You're an elderly Gen X person. So it can happen.
26:17Okay. Is this a West coast thing? Is this because I'm old? What is this? Okay. That's one thing.
26:23All right. So back to the fed now, the important things, right? So if they do like a 25%,
26:29percent, uh, I mean, 25 BPS, uh, you know, thing lower, does the market take that and run with it?
26:35No, I, I still think if the, if the fed says, okay, we're going to be more accommodative if the labor
26:40market breaks and labor markets breaking, the 10 year yield has a little bit more leeway to go.
26:44Just for everyone to remember mortgage rates fell 2% from the peak to the bottom with zero rate cuts,
26:51right? Because you know, the 10 year yield, uh, went up higher 5% that said, we're done hiking.
26:56Usually that means a bond market rally. That's what happened in other cycles.
27:01But when we got down to 6%, we had zero rate cuts in there. So you could have mortgage rates move
27:07one to 2% with nothing going on tied to the economic data. So labor data runs everything.
27:13If the labor data gets weaker, you know, plus let's, let's, let's do a hypothetical. What if
27:18labor data gets weaker, we start to do deals and this is all going to end.
27:22Okay. Then you got a more clear way for the bond market to go lower because we're not okay. Okay.
27:30This, this whole, uh, trade war tap dance created a lot of drama. We need to make sure that the
27:35economy doesn't get worse. That makes sense. That is a workable theory, but in a lot of variables,
27:41moving parts, I think that's the confusion with everyone right now.
27:45We just need lower rates. We just need lower rates. That's it. All right, Logan. Thank you so much.
27:50Thank you, pot, pot.
27:53Weigh in please. And weigh in on my favor. Okay. Thank you. We'll talk again soon. Actually, even tomorrow.
27:58Pleasure.