Expert Explains: These Are The Upside And Downside Scenarios For Europe Amid A China-US Trade War

Forbes Breaking News

On "Forbes Newsroom", Fellow at the European Foreign Relations Council, Liana Fix, discusses how Europe can navigate through the ongoing discussions between the United States and China over trade and tariffs.

Transcript

00:00Much, much caution.

00:02Is there an upside scenario and a downside that you're looking at or a bull case and a bear case, to use Wall Street terms?

00:08Again, it's a crystal ball question, but I'm curious where your head is on this.

00:12Well, the upside scenario is definitely that we will see a negotiated outcome on the tariffs and trade questions between the EU and the U.S.,

00:21which is essentially, which could be beneficial to both sides.

00:24We'll see some great successes for the United States, some major investments and so on.

00:30Something that Juncker, the former commission president, has done during first Trump's term,

00:35where he basically convinced Trump that he has done a great deal with Europe.

00:38So that's certainly what Europe is hoping for, that they will be able to achieve.

00:42There's hope that if they go into the NATO summit with increased defense spending and so on,

00:47that will prevent the United States and Donald Trump from basically turning his back on NATO.

00:52And they hope that in Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, Russia will fall into its own trap and risk the patience of Donald Trump.

01:04So that's the best case outline.

01:06The worst case outline is everything explodes.

01:09The United States threatens its allies, threatens the Europeans with,

01:13well, you are not being helpful on trade and tariffs.

01:16You're not being helpful on Ukraine.

01:17You're exploiting us on NATO.

01:19We will walk away from all of that.

01:21That would be the maximum worst case scenario that I would see.

01:26Well, I guess we have no choice but to perhaps hold our breath or maybe try to breathe through the next few months.

01:31But in the meantime, Liana Fix, fellow with the Council on Foreign Relations,

01:34thank you so much for joining us and breaking down the global trade and negotiation landscape.

01:39We really appreciate your time.

01:41Thank you so much.

01:41My pleasure.

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