IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecast Amid Trade War

TaiwanPlus News

The International Monetary Fund is cutting its forecast for global economic growth in 2025, with most big economies to suffer amid a brewing trade war between the U.S. and other countries.

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00:00At a port in southern China, stacks of shipping containers filled with Chinese goods await export.

00:05But some of those destined for the United States are in limbo.

00:09U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened tariffs of 145% on Chinese imports,

00:14part of a sweeping tariff policy that's put U.S. import duties at their highest in a century.

00:19This mounting trade war has sent the number of U.S.-bound cargo ships from the world's largest exporter plummeting.

00:25Now, the International Monetary Fund says the global economy is going to pay a price.

00:30Its prediction for global economic growth this year is down from 3.3% to 2.8%.

00:36And the U.S., along with most other countries, will suffer.

00:40The growth forecast for China, a chief target of Trump's tariffs, is now down 0.6% from January.

00:46But the IMF expects U.S. growth will be almost a whole percentage point lower than it was in January.

00:52And the organization says it could change again.

00:55This is just a reference in an unpredictable time.

00:59But there is also the increased uncertainty.

01:02And the increased uncertainty, which is related to the fact that no one is able to tell where things will settle eventually,

01:09means businesses are pausing investment or purchases, and that's weighing down an activity that could continue.

01:17And Trump's actions are a big reason for the unpredictability.

01:20And one of the biggest uncertainties is how high his tariffs will be.

01:24For now, the threatened 145% tariff on China appears to be on hold, as Trump suggests a deal could bring it down.

01:32145% is very high, and it won't be that high.

01:36It's not going to be that high.

01:38It got up to there.

01:39We were talking about fentanyl, where, you know, various elements built it up to 145.

01:45No, it won't be anywhere near that high.

01:48With only a few exceptions, most of the world's biggest economies stand to lose, according to the IMF's calculations.

01:55And while its chief economist says there's no need for concern over the international monetary system,

02:00the outcome of this global trade war is impossible to tell.

02:03Klein Wang and John Van Trieste for Taiwan Plus.

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