- 4/16/2025
The video you shared, titled "US-China trade war sees no de-escalation, while little progress in EU talks", was published today. It discusses the ongoing tariff tensions between the United States and China, highlighting the lack of de-escalation in their trade war. Additionally, it touches upon the limited progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and the European Union
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NewsTranscript
00:00Let's discuss with Ian Bremmer. He's the president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media.
00:05Ian, thanks so much for being with us. I want to start with one of the administration's stated
00:09goals when it comes to the EU. Would it benefit U.S. producers and consumers
00:16if EU nations dropped some of these non-monetary trade barriers that the administration has talked
00:24about could these tariffs actually yield that outcome? Yes, I think it can. And I fully accept
00:33the administration saying that they're going to be cutting deals with other countries in short order.
00:39The U.S. is, of course, the most powerful economy, the largest economy in the world. And countries do
00:46not want to be on the wrong side of a trade war. But Europe will not be an early adopter of a deal.
00:53It is 27 countries. They are hard and they're very bureaucratic. They have to organize by
01:01consensus. Trade is their primary competency as the EU. And the relationship with the United States,
01:09frankly, with this administration, is untrusted. And they don't know exactly what Trump wants and
01:16the willingness to communicate. The EU is not going to be a top priority. So I'd be very surprised
01:22if we actually see an agreement between the U.S. and the EU within the 90 days that the Americans
01:29have offered this suspension, unlike, say, Japan, where I wouldn't be surprised if we see an
01:34agreement in a week or two. Wow. How likely is it do you think that for allies, specifically in
01:40relation to the EU, who are going through this process now with the administration, some bellicose
01:46rhetoric, some tariff threats back and forth, how likely is it that they wind up moving economically
01:52closer to China? What are the implications there?
01:57They're going to move economically closer to lots of countries. For the last 10 years,
02:02you've probably heard the term de-risking, a term of art that the U.S. and other countries talks about
02:08China, that they want to reduce their exposure to China because China can't be trusted. They don't
02:14respect intellectual property. They don't respect contracts. They don't respect treaties. You know,
02:19all of these things. Well, the Europeans and many other countries are now starting to talk about
02:24de-risking the United States. Very hard to do because the U.S. is such a large economy. And also
02:30because the Europeans need the U.S. for some advanced technologies, need the U.S. for defense,
02:35of course. But I'm already seeing the EU speed up their conversations with Latin American countries
02:42to make sure that they get a fast-track approval of an EU Mercosur trade deal. I see the same thing
02:49happening with Delhi between the EU and India to try to improve and fast-track those relations.
02:56China's going to be a bigger challenge because the Europeans don't suddenly trust the Chinese more
03:01just because they trust the Americans less. They still have big problems with dumping.
03:06Their automotive industry has been destroyed by the Chinese. There are lots of places where they
03:11don't want Chinese advanced technology or chips because they're concerned about China scooping up
03:15their data and surveillance. None of that has gone away. So I think that it's less about Europe
03:22tilting towards China and more about hedging with pretty much everybody else they can. And that will
03:27take a long time. That is a really good point. I do wonder about U.S. trading partners in Southeast
03:35Asia, where Xi Jinping is touring right now. Countries that at one point were eyeing this U.S.-led
03:42trade pact, the TPP. It was supposed to be this way to counter a rising China. Obviously,
03:48Trump tore that up. Isn't the administration pushing those same partners away while claiming that it wants
03:57to fortify relations with them in order to present a united front against Beijing?
04:04Well, first, just a little fact check on the history, right? So this was Obama's deal.
04:08He failed to get it passed. Hillary Clinton ran against Trump. She refused to support it,
04:15even though privately she obviously did. The American people did not have a political willingness to
04:24support more free trade, even with core American allies all over the world. And so, yeah, the Trans-Pacific
04:31Partnership would have been great for globalization. But if Americans don't support globalization, then how
04:35do you get it done? So Trump was, in a sense, ahead of his time on this one. But now you have Xi Jinping
04:42leading a trip all this week to Southeast Asian countries. He just went to Vietnam, 45 deals,
04:49economic deals that the Chinese are cutting with Vietnam. And Trump says, well, the Chinese and
04:54Vietnamese are trying to screw the Americans. Well, a lot more effective in doing that on the back of
05:00all of these U.S. tariffs. So, I mean, the problem is if you're going to go after China, which you know
05:07is flouting WTO rules, which you know is a serious competitor and adversary, you should not be beating up on
05:15America's friends simultaneously. You'd be much better off coordinating with friends against China.
05:24And that, of course, is not the way that President Trump has chosen to go about these trade and tariff
05:32wars and deals. And as a consequence, he's backing away. He's offering concessions and exemptions.
05:39And a week into this, he looks weaker on the global stage than he did on Liberation Day.
05:46Ian Bremmer, always appreciate hearing your perspective. Thanks so much for joining us.
05:49Significant developments or lack thereof in tariff negotiations between the United States and
05:55Europe. We just learned the two sides made little progress in their first round of talks.
06:00This news comes shortly after the EU put out a list of more than 400 U.S. products. They say
06:05they'll tariff if a deal does not happen by mid-July. On that list, toilet paper, makeup,
06:11tobacco and clothing as well. As for ongoing talks with other countries,
06:16here's what the White House just had to say about that.
06:20We've had more than 15 deals, pieces of paper put on the table, proposals that are actively being
06:25considered. And as we've said consistently, more than 75 countries have reached out. So there's a lot
06:30of work to do. We very much understand that. But we do believe that we can announce some deals very
06:35soon.
06:37Here with us now, John McNiff is the founder and CEO of Modem Capital Management.
06:41And Ross Gerber is the co-founder, president and CEO of Gerber Kawasaki Wealth and Investment
06:46Management. Good to see both of you here. John, I first just want to start with you
06:50and get your reaction to what the press secretary had to say there that they expect
06:54to be announcing deals shortly and that a lot of these countries had reached out.
06:58Well, one that's obviously positive news. We want to see that in these developments.
07:06And, you know, markets will respond very well to that after last week's sell-off. So
07:10any news, positive news we get around tariffs being decreased is a positive for the U.S. consumer
07:16and U.S. businesses. So that is all positives that we want to see.
07:19Probably any certainty that can be had right now is what people are after.
07:23Yeah. I mean, when you look at, like, economic conditions, uncertainty, we deal with it every
07:30day. But larger uncertainties within your, you know, supply chains, all of the negative
07:38effects of the tariffs really affects consumer behavior. So what happens is you kind of start
07:43this self-fulfilling prophecy. So if you're worried about your income, you're worried about
07:47your, you know, you stop traveling, you stop spending money, you're worrying about things
07:51like that. The same thing is happening with businesses, right? They're worrying about the
07:53supply chain. They're worrying about their access to parts. They're worrying about the
07:56consumer. So they stop investing in capital on long-term projects. So this spiral that
08:01begins with the concept of uncertainty spiking in the financial market, you'd call that volatility,
08:06is a negative effect of the tariffs and is something that I think we need to get ahead of because
08:12it can have long-term consequences. And once the boat kind of shifts, right, it's really hard to
08:16kind of turn back. Ross, when it comes to these products that the EU is vowing retaliation
08:24against, they aren't really the biggest U.S. exports to the EU. I wonder what you make of that
08:32and what U.S. investors and businesses are really looking for out of these negotiations.
08:39Well, as was just mentioned, certainty is what we've lost. And for pretty much
08:46most of the small businesses in America right now, this is an incredibly difficult time because
08:51you have a double whammy of not being sure what your costs are and also seeing less demand at the
08:57same time. And it's very hard to make any capital allocation decisions for businesses here with this
09:04kind of uncertainty. Any tariff at all brings up the cost of living and the cost of goods for Americans.
09:10And the issue is how much or little tariffs are going to be between all the different countries.
09:15So the uncertainty isn't going to go away for some time, but the consumer is already voting and
09:20they're voting by not spending money. We're seeing deals falling apart. We're seeing real estate deals
09:25fall apart, leasing, capital improvement. We're seeing consumers spending less. You know,
09:31it's already happening. We're already at the cusp of a recession and it's very possible we could
09:35run into a recession. So that's where we're headed. It's just sad, but just a self-created recession.
09:47It seemed like there was a tariff briefly placed on your internet signal there. You went out and
09:51came back. We're fortunate that you're back with us. John, I do want to ask about China's response
09:57to some of these moves by the Trump administration, specifically this Bloomberg report that Chinese
10:02authorities ordered its airlines not take any further Boeing deliveries. I wonder how significant
10:09that is.
10:12I mean, obviously that's very significant. Boeing is a big, one of the largest producers of
10:17aircraft in the world. It's a big economic engine for the U.S. And these are kind of these
10:23butterfly effects that are occurring once you start going down this road of tariffs. The tariffs are a
10:27very blunt tool, right? And we all know that, you know, they're a very regressive tax and they're
10:33increasing costs for both on the consumer and on businesses. Then we had reciprocal tariffs come in.
10:40So that back and forth fighting has escalated prices. You're now going to start to see,
10:44which you also saw over the weekend with the restrictions from China on rare earth metals
10:48and minerals, that these are other steps that are actually more supportive for the Chinese economy
10:55than getting into a tariff war with us, but have a very negative effect on the U.S., right?
10:59When you do a reciprocal move like that, you are now playing chess in a different part of the board
11:05because we need those rare earth metals for our manufacturers who have everything from cell phones
11:10to cars. You're going to have car earnings next week. You're going to, you know, it will be too early
11:15for this, but the outlook by the CEOs is going to be very interesting. But so you're seeing these
11:20kind of knock-on effects of the, of what the tariffs are causing other countries to do.
11:24And obviously they're not positive for us as a consumer.
11:26And Ross, the Chinese president is now on a tour of Southeast Asia right now. We know he's also met
11:31with the Spanish prime minister last week. As an investor in American companies, I'm curious what
11:37you think of just this dynamic we see playing out now, the fact that Xi is going around meeting with
11:43U.S. allies having these conversations amidst this backdrop.
11:51Well, I think that you just said U.S. allies. Who is our allies anymore? Because I think we just
11:57burned our bridges with all of our major allies. So, so I look at it the opposite. China is going on tour,
12:04signing deals left and right is their goal and, and working out, you know, agreements with the EU,
12:10because the EU and China are two thirds of the world and we're the other third of the world as
12:15far as major industrialized economies. So we're not the majority of the world's industrialized
12:20economies. And, and this is exactly why this strategy of blunt force tariffs and bullying other
12:27nations doesn't create the outcome that you want because the other nations don't want to be pushed
12:33around. Now, if you look at Chinese history over any period of time, and certainly the longterm,
12:38they're willing to deal with economic pain. They're fine being isolated from the West. They'll
12:42trade with other people and they've done this for thousands of years. A lot longer has even been
12:48around. So, you know, we're really, it's like, we act like we're in this position of strength, but yet
12:54we're spending $2 trillion a year more than we, we make. And we need to borrow that money from the same
13:00people that we're pissing off. So we've created from a position of strength of negotiation into a
13:06position of almost desperation and weakness. Cause if they don't get deals, they look real bad too.
13:12And markets will go lower. So, you know, Trump's going to have to deal with market forces that she
13:18doesn't have to deal with. And so as I, I, I think that we all can negotiate better deals with our
13:24partners, but there's a way to do things. And this is just doesn't seem like an effective way.
13:30Such a significant point about leverage that Beijing has in terms of the debt that they own
13:35from the United States. I wonder Ross quickly, this vow from Trump and his administration to put
13:43tariffs on pharmaceutical products. I mean, there's no way that that isn't going to impact
13:48patients and folks who rely on critical medicines.
13:52Right. And so every way you do the math, the cost of living in the United States is about to go up
14:00and it could go up fairly substantially and voters and consumers are going to see this and they're going
14:06to push back with things like pharmaceuticals. You don't have a choice. And so you're just like jamming
14:11people that oftentimes can't even afford the pharmaceuticals they're paying for now and just raising
14:17prices. It's really just the biggest tax increase on middle income and lower income Americans in,
14:24in history that I can think of in modern history and why there isn't more pushback against this
14:29is crazy to me. And then the second thing is I don't even think this is legal. And if you really
14:35analyze the way Trump is putting these tariffs on is he's using some obscure law. And I don't think
14:42it's legal. And the fact that Congress hasn't pushed back and doing what's best for its constituents,
14:46and this is political. It doesn't matter whether you're a Democrat or Republican, this is going to hurt
14:51you. And if you don't understand that, you're going to see it in the next month as prices are already
14:57going up and are going to keep going up. And so, you know, I hope that people call their senators, reach
15:04out to their Congress people and express their dismay that this is the policies that 75 million people
15:10voted for. You know, I don't think they realize that. And now we're going into a tougher time for
15:18America. And it's all self created. We were in such a good position just three months ago. And it's just
15:23so sad to see so much wealth destroyed. Almost 10% of American wealth has just been destroyed in the
15:29last two months, even just really two months. Our money lead U.S. stocks closed slightly lower today
15:35as investors await the next salvo in President Trump's tariff and trade wars. White House Press
15:40Secretary Caroline Levitt told reporters earlier today that President Trump is actively assessing
15:44more than 15 trade deal proposals. In case you have not noticed, Chinese President Xi Jinping is
15:50traveling through Southeast Asia, meeting right now with U.S. trading partners such as Vietnam and
15:55Malaysia. So far, urging them to resist, quote, unilateral bullying. Here on The Lead, we're looking at
16:02how the tariff wars are affecting specific U.S. industries. And joining us now is Greg Ahern. He's
16:08president and CEO of the Toy Association. Before that, he was the chief marketing officer at Toys R Us.
16:14Greg, thanks for joining us. What do our viewers need to understand about the toy industry and how Trump's
16:20tariffs are affecting the industry? Well, 145% tariff is tough on any industry, but ours is truly unique
16:29from the standpoint that 96% of the manufacturers here in the U.S. are considered small or medium-sized
16:36businesses. So when you think about these businesses and a 145% tariff being put on them,
16:43it's untenable for them. They don't have the cash flow. They don't have the access to capital. And it's
16:49basically locking up production in the toy industry. No toys are currently being produced
16:55in China. And there are reports that major retailers here in the U.S. are starting to
17:00actually cancel orders. So Jay, Christmas is at risk. Huh. Your organization says nearly 80% of all
17:08toys sold in the U.S. are manufactured in China. Do you think it's possible to stand up some sort of
17:14U.S. supply chain for the toy industry? And I mean, that's obviously the goal of the Trump
17:18administration. Is that possible? And if so, how long would it take? Well, there are some toys that
17:26are made here in the U.S., but they're mostly paper goods or highly automated goods. And it represents a
17:30small portion of the toys that are manufactured. To be able to stand up manufacturing in the U.S.,
17:37is it possible? Yes. But in the short term, absolutely not. It would take three to five years
17:42to be able to build out the capacity, the specialization. Again, a lot of the toys that are made
17:48in China, as you said, 80% are hand labor made toys. It's the have face painting on a doll. It's
17:56the hair decorating. It's placing them the correct way in packaging. A lot of this is hand labor that
18:02can't be automated here in the U.S. And obviously labor rates are much higher here in the United
18:07States than they are in China. If this industry was moved to the United States, even after three to
18:14five years or whatever, does that mean it would just explode in cost?
18:20It most likely would. The toy industry is a very low margin industry. If you're making high single
18:25digits or low double digits as a manufacturer, you're doing pretty darn good. So if you take
18:30any factor like labor, that is a major factor in toy manufacturing, you raise that up, absolutely
18:36would impact the cost of toys here in the U.S. So you could probably imagine a 20 to 30% price
18:42increase in toys if they were moved here into the U.S.
18:45Are there any kind of residual impacts of these tariffs that we're not even thinking of? For
18:50example, I know toy safety is something very important for your industry. Kids, you know,
18:56I mean, there are some toys, I think there's like a size limit. It can only be so small because you
19:01don't want kids to choke on toys. Are there any safety recriminations or repercussions?
19:06There are. You've got a lot of folks, the branded toys that are doing it right. They go through
19:13all of the testing over 150 different safety standards that toys have to pass because we
19:19want to make sure that safe toys are in children's hands. But when the prices of these branded toys
19:25go up, it swings the door open potentially for counterfeits, knockoff toys that potentially are
19:31unsafe, sold through some of the online sellers that we know. And the last thing we want to have
19:36is any unsafe toy getting the hands of children, but they will be at lower price points. And it's hard for
19:42consumers to tell the difference between a counterfeit and knockoff and a safe branded toy. And so we don't
19:47want that to happen this year.
19:49You just stated that Christmas is at risk. What's your advice for parents or grandparents looking ahead
19:54to the holidays? Well, I think, you know, if we don't get these 145% tariffs moved off, production
20:03right now is stopped. And all of the toys that will be on the holiday shelves this year are actually
20:09supposed to be produced now, April, May and June. They're all produced and then brought here into the
20:14U.S. So there is no alternative in terms of manufacturing short term for the 2025 holiday season.
20:21So reach out to your local representatives. We're reaching out to the administration.
20:27We're hoping that they hear us, that they understand the uniqueness of the toy industry and
20:31that everybody wants to make sure that Christmas is going to be fun and there'll be toys under the
20:36tree for kids this year. Thanks, Greg. Really appreciate your time today. Thanks for coming on.
20:41And our politics lead. Some Democrats are ramping up calls for an investigation
20:45into whether President Trump intentionally manipulated the stock market so that his allies and even some
20:51members of Congress could profit. The concern stems from Trump's Truth Social post on April 9th,
20:57where about four hours before he announced his 90-day tariff pause, causing the market to soar,
21:03he posted, quote, this is a great time to buy, DJT. DJT, those are the president's initials. It's
21:09also, coincidentally or not, the stock symbol for Trump Media and Technology Group. When asked by a
21:14reporter last week whether Trump's Truth Social post was an attempt to manipulate the stock market,
21:18National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett pushed back, saying, quote,
21:22I don't think that Trump ever had any other intent other than to get people to the table
21:27with serious policies, unquote. And joining us now, one of the House Democrats raising concerns about
21:32all of this, Congressman Mike Levin of California. Congressman Levin, have you seen any evidence
21:38of insider trading from either members of Congress or President Trump's allies,
21:43instead of that just general advice that Trump gave for people to invest?
21:50Well, Jake, it's good to be with you. And to the extent we have evidence, it's circumstantial
21:54right now. So we know that President Trump had a number of conversations with members of Congress
21:59and with members of his administration leading up to the decision to have the 90-day pause.
22:06And for example, we know that there was a dinner the prior evening with Republican members of Congress
22:12and the president. We know that he spoke with a number of people on the day of the decision.
22:17And I think what we want to know is who traded both on the 8th and then pre-market on the 9th,
22:23leading up to that post on Truth Social at 9.37 a.m. And that would be of most interest to me.
22:31And then, of course, who traded between 9.37 and then 1.18 in the afternoon, last Wednesday afternoon,
22:38when the pause was announced? Because of the Stock Act, which is the law that governs all of this,
22:43we've got a very limited data set so far. A lot of that information will come out in 30 to 45 days.
22:49But a number of us are calling on Mike Johnson to have full transparency and accountability for all members
22:56to see what they traded between April 2nd and April 9th.
23:00And, Jake, for me, it just reinforces the need to have a full ban on members of Congress trading stock at all.
23:07And I'm encouraged to see that Leader Jeffries and others are now fully behind the idea of that ban.
23:14Yeah, that ban didn't happen when Democrats controlled the House and Senate. Why not?
23:20Well, certainly it wasn't for lack of my trying. I've been calling for that straight through
23:27since I started running for Congress back in 2017. My wife and I divested any individual shares of stock
23:34and put them all in mutual funds. And look, I think there is bipartisan support for this.
23:39In fact, President Trump himself, back in 2022, said he supported a stock trading ban.
23:45I think there's a great deal of momentum. We've got a bill now that has several Republicans in addition to
23:50many Democrats on board. And I think if a vote were allowed on the floor of the House,
23:55I think it would pass the House and would pass the Senate. We continue to build momentum behind it.
24:01And I'm hopeful that that vote will occur. If it can't occur in this Congress because Mike Johnson
24:05doesn't have the courage to do it, then hopefully it will happen if Democrats retake the House after next year.
24:12It would be great, obviously, if voluntarily every House member disclosed their trades on the dates
24:19that you talked about, any trade transaction between April 2nd to April 9th. Are there Republicans
24:25that are curious as well?
24:29There are. And there are roughly 15 who are behind our effort to try to have a stock trading ban and who
24:36have expressed concern, at least privately. It's amazing what they'll tell you privately, Jake. But
24:40I think at the end of the day, the existing law only goes so far because we'll see, like I said,
24:46between 30 and 45 days from now, which members traded, but we won't get a timestamp. So in other
24:52words, we'll see if they traded on the 8th or the 9th. We'll know what they traded with rough ranges,
24:57but we won't get that level of granularity. I know that my friend Adam Schiff has called for a similar
25:02investigation into what members of the administration may have done. And it's very simple. We should not be
25:08using our position in which we often get access to material non-public information to pad our
25:14pockets. We serve the people. We shouldn't be serving ourselves in that manner. It's fundamentally
25:18wrong. And a broad coalition of people across the political spectrum agree.
25:24I asked you earlier why Democrats didn't do this when they controlled the House, and you said it
25:28wasn't for lack of your trying. Without naming any Democrats who were against it, can you give us at
25:35least any sort of vague idea as to why you didn't do it, Democrats didn't do it, when you controlled
25:40the House? Jake, I think that there are politicians of both parties that for too long have profited off
25:49the rules as they are. That's why it's very tough for us to enact campaign finance reform in the wake
25:54of the Citizens United decision. It's why it's very tough for members like myself who don't take any
26:00corporate PAC contributions. We're at a disadvantage often. And when the system is working for incumbents,
26:07it's very difficult for those incumbents to want to challenge that very system. And look, I know that
26:13there's a certain degree of cynicism here, but I think this is so critically important and is so
26:18resonant with people across the political spectrum. When I speak to my constituents, I just had a town
26:24hall packed with people. And when I brought up the need for members of Congress to not trade individual
26:30shares of stock, that was probably one of the biggest applause lines that I got. And there were
26:35a lot of Republicans in attendance. Economic warfare. President Trump saying that China must make the
26:41first move to end the escalating trade war, delivering that statement through his press secretary.
26:46The ball is in China's court. China needs to make a deal with us. We don't have to make a deal with
26:53them. This after China, the world's largest market for airline purchases, reportedly is ordering its
27:00airlines to halt all deliveries of Boeing products. And with that, delivering a major blow to America's
27:06largest exporter. Out front now, Dan Ives, veteran tech stocks analyst, Peter Tuchman,
27:12longtime Wall Street trader, and the one and only Richard Quest. I feel like I should say to
27:18everyone out there, gird your loins. You're hopped up on the fact that you think that there's kind
27:26of a cascade of evidence now of how bad this could be. I don't think I know. Boeing. So Boeing's in
27:34trouble because it can't deliver. Boeing's getting hit from every angle. But it can't deliver to China,
27:38Eastern China, Southern and Air China. United Airlines. United today said that when it comes
27:44to giving guidance, they were going bimodal. They've given guidance on the basis of what's
27:50going on at the moment and if there's a recession. I cannot remember a company, an airline, giving
27:55two sets of guidance, if it's normal and if it's a recession. NVIDIA tonight basically taking a charge
28:02because they say they can't sell certain chips into China. So they've now written down certain numbers
28:07of values. This is going to grow and grow and grow with more companies in different parts of the
28:13economy saying what the effects are. And this is how your recession happens. Is that not? I mean,
28:19I mean, I think you nailed it. We're now starting to see this economic snowball go downhill. And if
28:29you look at it, NVIDIA, you look at the Boeing, and I think that's the worry is that you can't stop it.
28:35If you choose your own adventure in terms of guidance coming from a major company, that does
28:39nothing to offer any confidence, says the person who knows nothing about any of this.
28:43Well, look, you've, and like, you know, me and Pierre have talked about it. It's like you've cut
28:46big tech at the knees. And NVIDIA, that's the first step in terms of what we're seeing.
28:52And look, and from a White House perspective, you're playing a game of high stakes poker with China.
28:57And the reality is the market and the economy that's caught in the middle.
29:00I mean, you know what I think is fascinating, though, it is how China's response to it.
29:04Boeing is not just an airline company. It represents in the Dow Jones Industrial Average,
29:09those 30 stocks that represent America. So it's really a shot across the bow against us. This is,
29:14this is a tit for tat, but in high stakes, you know, high stakes playing in the sandbox, really.
29:22That's what I was going to ask, because when it comes to China sending a message,
29:28huge, you also just you heard from Caroline Levitt, you heard from you've heard from others
29:32that it that that Trump says that China needs a deal more than we do. Do you think that is accurate?
29:39No, no, that shouldn't have to be the way to look at the end of the dead. Look, our we should be
29:45aligned. Our motivation should be aligned. And it's not. That's why you're talking about this is a
29:50battle of egos. Right? I mean, as far as I can see, as opposed to, you know what? Look, yes,
29:55he has an agenda. The agenda is about policy around tariffs. But at the end of the day,
29:59we must make a deal. If this was about calling everyone to the table to negotiate, that's not,
30:04I guess that's his approach of negotiation. But at this point, it's, it's, it's, it's not every day
30:10we're being notched down. We don't know what tomorrow. It's a bit of a bipolar situation.
30:13Three words, rare earth minerals. They've already pulled a rug out. They are essential in vast parts
30:21of the U.S. industry. The China is, the two sides need each other. Who needs who more
30:27is an academic question. So when they say, when the question, when someone, when the question is
30:32posed, who needs to blink first? Who needs to pick up the phone first? You think that's a ridiculous
30:37question? It's a ridiculous question. Because as Peter and Richard talked about, the reality is,
30:42is that you look at big tech right now, it's the hearts and lungs that are in the supply chain.
30:47Where are the, when you look at the rare earth and you look at the materials, how are you making
30:51the chips? NVIDIA, what I view is probably the best disruptive technology coming to the world.
30:56Now, basically, they can sell into China. And that came out after the market. So you're starting to
31:01see these chips fall. And this is the reality. This is not just microphones in the beltway, right?
31:07Now you're seeing the reality hit in terms of the economy. But also realize that NVIDIA,
31:11it was, it's, it was the flavor of the moment. It was the stock that took the, even though it was a
31:15broader footprint than just NVIDIA, MAG 7, but it was, it was the biggest stock. Think about it.
31:21February 2023, NVIDIA was $108 stock. He called it, and my partner, David Green, called it the same.
31:27February 2024, it was a $900 stock, right? That was one of the biggest contributing factors to the
31:32rally that we saw in those, in the last two years, double digit growth in the S&P 500. So to start
31:37hitting those, it's sort of, it show, it's an, it's a radical attempt to break our market down.
31:43It's the golden jewels. It's the, it's the goal, it's the golden goose of tech. That's what you're
31:50hitting here. Right. And the stock market. And the stock market.
31:52What are you hitting here? You're talking about NVIDIA and all these high tech, highfalutin'
31:57stocks. You're so highfalutin' you do. Here we go. This is a, toothpicks. Toothpicks. Guess where
32:05they're made? Let me guess, uh, Idaho. Idaho. Made in China that is now going to cost 145% more
32:14because of the tariffs. You extrapolate these toothpicks across everything else. So start
32:21handing them out and start saving them up. You, you mentioned that there's no reason to get into
32:25this tit-for-tat. Jamie Dimon talked about tit-for-tat today, saying that we don't need
32:29to get, he's saying exactly the same thing. Let me play what he said. He just said this in a new
32:33interview. I don't want to get into this tit-for-tat type of thing. I think adults should talk to each
32:39other and listen to each other and acknowledge when the other person is right, or at least has a good
32:43point. I don't think we have any engagement right now. And so, but that can start tomorrow.
32:49My question is, how does the market react? When does the snowball effect become
32:54irreversible? Like, how does the market react if there continues to be no signs that there is
32:59any engagement? That's a good, you have, you have an answer to that? I mean, yeah,
33:02go ahead. I'll start and then, Peter. I would say in the next 30 days, you need some sort of sign
33:10that, that we're going to get some negotiation that started with China, whether it's a summit,
33:15whether it's calls, whether, and then ultimately a de-escalation because, you know, as Richard's
33:20talked about, and Peter, this goes past 30 days, market said, okay, hold on a second,
33:25this is going to continue. Then you start to get into that Armageddon scenario. Two bullies in the
33:31backyard, no one's blinking. Look, we've seen it from February 19th, the market was trading at record
33:36highs. The first six weeks since the first mention of tariffs were around Mexico and Canada,
33:41when the market started to spiral down and then escalate sort of down to the point where last week
33:47when we had those days that were so severe. We cannot look at those two days where the market
33:52did rally 900 points. The confidence in the market is broken. What happened in the bond market last
33:57week, as we talked about, you can't bully the bond market. Damage was done to the whole
34:02infrastructure of, of the trading community in so many ways around that. And that's a China,
34:07very China centric situation when it comes to bonds. Is it Pollyanna, Richard, to think if,
34:13because the administration said that Trump is looking at like 15 plus deals right now,
34:20trade deals right now. Is it Pollyanna to think they start announcing deals and it fixes everything?
34:25No, it's not because once they start announcing deals, there will be an element of certainty
34:31vis, vis a vis that country's exports to the United States. But I do believe that the days of a free
34:40trade agreement of zero tariffs, because what they've got to deal with is the non-tariff barriers.
34:46I think the president is very comfortable with the idea that he's finally got what he's always
34:51wanted, which is a tariff regime. 10 percent. The world can live with 10 percent, but he's finally
34:58forced. He's going to make the floor be 10. He's all right. I cannot see that. But I would just say,
35:03just add, you need to get deals on the table, whether it's Vietnam, whether it's South Korea,
35:08you don't get deals on the table by the end of this week, then markets, okay, our deals are there.
35:13And it comes down to, as Peter talked about, you can't bully the bond market. The 10-year speaks
35:20volume and that forces the hand. Do you know what the markets, look, we just history tells us the
35:25market can handle anything. We've been able to figure that except the perfect storm. When multiple,
35:30it's like the wave, you get hit by wave after wave after wave. This is, if we don't settle something
35:35up on the China side, then the market is going to start to suffer. And you can't obfuscate it.
35:41No. You cannot. The market, particularly the bond market, will see through flimflammery.
35:46The 10-year and a dollar. Flimflammery. Did you say that?
35:49And that's, you can, you can, you can, you have to give attribution. That's a 1600 SAT word right there.
35:54Who here scored that? None of us.
35:57That's the spelling bee. Last.
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