Long-range forecast for May to July 2025

Australian Community Media

The Bureau's long-range forecast video provides a look at likely rainfall, streamflow, and temperature for the months ahead.

Transcript

00:00Our long-range forecast shows May to July rainfall is likely to be within the typical

00:07range for most of the country. Below average rainfall is likely almost nationwide during

00:12May and warmer than average May to July temperatures are likely. Australia had its

00:17warmest March on record. Mean temperatures were above average almost everywhere with

00:22broad areas of southern and central Australia recording their warmest March on record.

00:27Tropical cyclone Alfred brought heavy rainfall to southeastern Queensland and northern New South

00:33Wales in early March. Later in the month, a persistent inland trough brought heavy rainfall

00:38to western Queensland and northern New South Wales. Many areas had more than four times their March

00:45average rainfall and some had their wettest March on record. In contrast, March rainfall was below

00:52average for some southern areas. Since February last year, rainfall has been in the lowest 5% of the

00:59historical record for southern parts of Western Australia and South Australia, most of Western

01:04Victoria and parts of Western Tasmania. For some, it has been the driest 14 months on record.

01:10Soil moisture, as of the 8th of April, is very much above average to highest on record across large parts of

01:17northern Australia following the recent heavy rainfall. While in parts of the south, soil moisture is

01:23currently drier than average. Looking ahead, May to July sea surface temperatures are forecast to remain

01:30warmer than average in the Australian region and close to average across the tropical Pacific.

01:34Although we are entering the cooler months, May to July daytime temperatures are very likely to be above

01:41average across Australia. And there's an increased chance of unusually warm days, particularly in the

01:47south. Overnight temperatures are also very likely to be higher than average from May to July. There's an

01:54increased chance of unusually warm nights, especially across parts of the west and in the south. May rainfall

02:01is likely to be below average across most of Australia, except the east coast, where it's likely to be within the

02:07typical range for May. For the three months May to July, scattered parts of the south and east are likely to be

02:13drier than average, including areas that have had persistently below average rainfall in recent months.

02:20For many areas, rainfall is expected to be within the typical range for this time of year and wetter than average for parts of Western Australia.

02:27We're heading into the dry season in the north, when typically very low rainfall totals are observed.

02:35For April to June, high stream flow is likely for most sites in the east. Stream flow is likely to be low for parts of the south.

02:42We update the long-range forecasts regularly. Select your location to find out more.

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