Why the May 3 election will be like no other

ABC NEWS (Australia)

It will be a busy five weeks of campaigning ahead. So which parts of the country will see the most attention? Election analyst Casey Briggs explains where the majority of the campaigning could be concentrated.

Transcript

00:00Labour won the last election with a thin majority, off its lowest ever primary vote.

00:11After the redistributions, it notionally holds 78 seats.

00:17It's a fragile starting point for the government, given polls are suggesting the swing is in

00:22the Coalition's direction.

00:24It wouldn't take a lot for Labor to lose its majority.

00:28Here are all the seats in Parliament.

00:30As a rough guide, a uniform swing of less than 1% would see the government lose three

00:36seats, and be pushed into minority.

00:40But the Coalition needs a lot more than that to form government.

00:44It takes a swing of nearly 3.5% for it to become a larger party in Parliament than Labor.

00:51And a uniform swing of more than 5%, all the way down to Shortland in the NSW Hunter Valley,

00:57for the Coalition to gain the 19 seats it would need to govern in majority.

01:03And if Labor loses more than two seats, while the Coalition gains less than 19, we'll

01:12have a hung Parliament.

01:14And then the attention will be on the very large crossbench.

01:18Will the Greens be able to hold onto their four seats?

01:22They hold this one, the seat of Griffith, but Labor very much want to take it back.

01:29Could more independence break through?

01:32There are strong challenges in seats like Cowper and Wannan, mostly against Coalition

01:37MPs.

01:38The major parties are fighting to reverse a trend that's been decades in the making.

01:44A decline in their vote, and a rise in the vote for anybody else.

01:49Essentials polling puts the share of voters who are undecided or open to changing their

01:53mind at 48%.

01:56And Resolve has found the number of people saying they're not yet committed to a party

02:01is nearly double what it was going into the 2022 election.

02:05For Anthony Albanese and Peter Dutton, the quality of their campaigns could perhaps be

02:10unusually important.

02:13Victory or defeat depends on the next five weeks.

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