Mount St. Mary's vs. American: Game Preview & Odds

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00:00It is Mountain St. Mary's, the champions of the MAAC. A 16 seed on to the big dance against

00:06American University, the champions out of the Patriot League tonight for the first game in

00:11Dayton. AU, that would be American University. The Eagles, a two and a half point favorite.

00:17And Donnie, that's a pretty minimal total at 128 and a half. How do you break down the matchup,

00:22our first game tonight in Dayton? Yeah, there's a couple of those numbers here just to take a

00:26look at where they've been. That opening number was 134 and a half. We're down a touchdown in

00:32this game at 128 and a half. And I imagine that if we look at 129 and a half or 127 and a half

00:37as that closing number, I'm probably more likely to put the money on the 127 and a half. Now,

00:42the line itself though, Bennett Vandal here in New Jersey, opened up at two and a half,

00:45still staying at two and a half. So a pretty good line movement here in this game. So you're trying

00:49to track that and say, which side are the people going on? Pretty even movement right here, which

00:53is a great handicap. And there are some intricacies to take a look at. Like first play competition,

00:57not necessarily, but these two teams are in the same ballpark. Both not all that efficient,

01:02but sometimes you do just look at things that one team just doesn't do well, as opposed to

01:07what the other team does really well. And that pointing out Mount St. Mary's offensive strategy

01:12of turning the basketball over just about every time they get it, it feels like shouldn't work

01:16out in their favor, but they actually won their conference championship. There's 359th in the

01:21country. And again, just to putting these numbers in simpler terms, one out of every five trips up

01:25the court and a little bit more, they turn the basketball over and don't get a shot. Protecting

01:29the basketball is always key to your environment. Also understand this, like American isn't great

01:34by any stretch, 252nd in the country, adjusted efficiency. They don't rebound the basketball

01:39very well and they don't get to the free throw line. Now Mount St. Mary's doesn't fail that much.

01:43Here's where the components come in. And again, last night gives me a little bit more optimism

01:46when you're talking about the three ball. American 58th in the country, 44.5, let's just say 45% call

01:53it there at their total attempts come from the three point shot. Now Mount St. Mary's will defend

01:59it, but at the same time, I'm just looking for a comfortability of an offense that goes, we'll let

02:03you shoot the three point shot. We'll defend it a little bit, but that's a comfort level for

02:06American. So just keeping it simple for me tonight, I like American just because one team will turn

02:11the basketball over and one team will let you shoot the three point shot. You're not doing

02:15anything drastic here. Give me American tonight in this game.