First Four Play In-Tournament Best Bets & Predictions

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00:00live right here on this Monday on the early line on SportsGrid. It is BRS. I am

00:05Ben Stevens. A thank you to the coach, J.Y. James Young. By the way, Braxton Central

00:10coverage all across the SportsGrid network continues for the entirety of

00:14this three-week run in the madness. J.Y. and myself will be live at noon Eastern

00:19time on Thursday for the start of the round of 64. When are you first in studio

00:25for BC coverage? I will be here Friday night for the culmination of day number

00:30two. A perfect day to wind down the first two days. Watch it live and also flip it

00:35over to Saturday which you know the games get even better at that point. So

00:38yeah, we're in. Going to be incredible in the round of 32 of course here on the

00:42early line each and every day. We will talk to Brackett. We will make sense of

00:46the madness. We will preview matchups. Everything you can't anticipate and

00:50everybody here at the Spizz Grizz network is going to play a big part in

00:54our Brackett Central coverage over the next 20 plus days. It is going to be

00:59incredible stuff and that includes not just a round of 64 but the first four in

01:05Dayton, Ohio. Four matchups, two on Tuesday, two on Wednesday night to book

01:10those spots into the field of 64 and the opening round beginning on Thursday.

01:15Again, here are our first four games. Our first in the first four tomorrow night,

01:21Alabama State and St. Francis. The 16 Seeds, the Hornets of Alabama State,

01:26the champions out of the SWAC, St. Francis PA, the champions of the

01:31Northeast Conference, the Red Flash go dancing for the first time since 1991.

01:37San Diego State and UNC, the night cap in Dayton on a Tuesday. Wednesday,

01:42it's the Mount taken on American and in Texas and Xavier. Of course, SDSU, UNC,

01:48Texas and Xavier, the last four teams into the NCAA tournament. Let's start

01:54with that first of our first four play in games. Alabama State, champions of the

01:58SWAC and St. Francis PA. The Red Flash of St. Francis, a losing record 16 and 17.

02:06They will be just the 20th ever team in a history of the tourney since the field

02:10expanded in 1985 to make it to the big dance with a sub 500 mark. But they

02:17pulled off a huge upset in the NAC tournament title game against, at the time,

02:21the hottest team in the country in Central Connecticut. Expected to keep this game

02:25close against Alabama State. You take a look and automatically, what are you saying?

02:28142 and a half here at Fandula drops to 139 and a half. You're taking a look at people

02:33saying, all right, different time of year, different place that you're playing,

02:36quick turnaround in schedules against a non-common opponent for yourself,

02:40which makes it tough. But how about this? Line up another three and a half,

02:42it still sits at three and a half today. And for me, it's that time of the season

02:45where it's take the points and pray, which means you have like component versus like

02:49component out here in a coin flip type game. I mean, granted, there's way better games

02:54we're going to break down than this one here. But if you're asking me, like,

02:57do I like Alabama State? Not necessarily. Neither do I like St. Francis at this point,

03:00but I can buy into buying that number 142 and a half down to 139 and a half and saying,

03:05you know what, Dayton tight rims here, maybe a little bit closer.

03:08Screams one of those games where it's 24-21 at the break. You know what I mean?

03:11Like staying under the total for me. Based on the matchup, I think there's a lot to like

03:15here for the Hornets and Tony Matlock who won the SWAC because they don't turn the basketball over.

03:21Third best turnover percentage offensively. They are going to take great care of the basketball.

03:26They don't get picked off. They don't force themselves into those bad scenarios. And they

03:30like to hoist the three and St. Francis PA will let you take the three if you want it.

03:35I favor Alabama State as do the odds makers, but just a three and a half point spread.

03:39Let me get your thoughts on the automatic qualifiers having to play in the first four.

03:44I've gone back and forth from this. I think they should get the full benefit of being in the big

03:49dance. They have earned the right by winning a conference tournament, the regalia, the experience

03:54of making sure they get to the round of 64. But I've also kind of changed my team in the last few

03:58years, where I think getting to play a standalone national game and earn an NCAA tournament victory

04:06within the big dance, because very unlikely, of course, you are going to pick off a number one

04:11seed. It is a really great opportunity and atmosphere for the 16 seeds, even though they

04:16did win that automatic birth 1000%. It's better for them to play like competition, because yes,

04:22you win your conference tournament. And the key to the success is we get to go play number one

04:26overall Duke and get beat by 45 points. So as a memory, that's the expectation. But now you win

04:31your conference tournament and a legitimate chance to win another game, which is branded as a

04:36conference, not excuse me, as a NCAA March Madness win, and then go play a higher seeded

04:41team. Those kids are living, living it up right now. Yes, each and every one of them. What would

04:45they rather do just get automatically into the tournament 16 or play in this game standalone

04:49where everybody in the country is watching hands down. It's a wonderful format that they provide

04:53these. And if you get that win, you can build upon it and you at least enter the opening round with

04:59a little bit of confidence that the winner of this first four game in Dayton will be the 16

05:04seed officially in the South region. They get the number one overall seed in Auburn, but the Tigers

05:08on a small slide, they've dropped three of their last four Alabama State into the NCAA tournament

05:13for the first time in over a decade since 2011. Let's talk about the second first four game on a

05:20Tuesday night in Dayton. We'll continue to preview each of these two matchups tomorrow on the show

05:25on the early line as well. But Donnie, here's the opportunity for North Carolina to look at

05:29everybody and say, you doubted our metrics, you doubted how good we were in terms of the quality

05:34of our resume. You don't think we should be in the NCAA tournament as the last team in. Here's

05:39the chance to prove them wrong and to start some March momentum. UNC three and a half point favorite

05:45in their opening round matchup in the first four, I should say, against San Diego State. How do you

05:50break down this game between the Tar Heels and the Astros? Yeah, obviously, we know the calling

05:53card for San Diego State for years has been their defense. And that certainly stands out at this

05:57point. But understand this, this line opened up for North Carolina as a favorite at minus three

06:01and a half points. Still sits right now at Fandul at minus three and a half points. However, other

06:05outlets, Ben, have moved to minus four and a half. So some of that money coming in on Carolina, and I

06:10technically agree with it. But a similar calling card to these games in Dayton, Ben, 144 and a half

06:15New Jersey, we posted here as a Fandul price, now down to 142 and a half. And I expect those lines

06:20might even go lower than that point, because I just don't see a running match between North Carolina

06:25and San Diego State. But having said that, the more talented team is North Carolina. Let me see

06:29where this line ends up, because I thought three and a half in that range was a fair price. You

06:33start talking four and a half and five points, I'm automatically going to San Diego State, because

06:37understand this, yes, Carolina is talented. But if the MO is when they step up in competition or play

06:43competition that should be, let's just say, tournament worthy, they haven't won those games.

06:46Now you're asking them to win by five plus points. That might be too tough. That is the knock against

06:50North Carolina. Only quad, only one quad one victory in 13 opportunities to pick up plenty

06:57more. So now they're going to be playing in what would be considered a quad game if we were still

07:02using the net rankings in first for action in Dayton, Ohio. Can they seize this opportunity?

07:08That of course, the question for Huber Davis and the heels, I will give North Carolina credit in

07:13this. They had an understanding that the resume wasn't overwhelmingly impressive in the final

07:17month and a half of this regular season. So outside of the two games against Duke, the regular

07:23season finale, semifinal matchup in Charlotte, even without Cooper flag and Malik Brown, UNC won

07:29all eight games against non Duke opponents. And in all eight victories, the Tar Heels covered in

07:36seven of those eight, they won all eight by at least six points. This UNC team has been very

07:43stout in the games. They've been expected to win and they are expected to win. This one is a three

07:48and a half point favorite, but I think you could argue San Diego state outside of the blue devils,

07:53best competition they are going to see. Again, the calling card for SDSU under Brian Dutcher

07:59has been the same slow tempo, really stout defensively, difficult to score on the RS

08:05around the rim. And it's why you've seen that total drop a couple of points, as you mentioned.

08:09Absolutely. And also let's go back to a day before previous, which was yesterday selection

08:12Sunday. You know what the tournament, the committee I did, I thought at the service, so

08:16we were all watching for Carolina to make it and to make it not in the fact that they put them side

08:20by side, just pop them up in the sky. Oh, wait, well, there's Carolina next. And it moves right

08:24onto the next game was really interesting. I thought, because you thought that would have

08:27been a contentious point where everybody stopped was like, wait a second. Is that them on that

08:31line right there? The next to another team. Yup. Pop them right in there. But Hey,

08:34Carolina's got the chip on the shoulder. There's something to be said about that.

08:36The final team into the NCAA tournament that is North Carolina. And regardless of who wins in the

08:43first four, the RS the first year, the first four was 2011. Every year we have had the first four

08:50in the NCAA tournament with the exception of 2019. A team that was victorious in Dayton

08:56also won at least one round of 64 game as well. We've even seen some teams like the first year

09:02for VCU in 2011 by 2021 for UCLA and 11 seed be victorious in Dayton and make it all the way

09:10to the final four from the first four to the final four as you start to build that momentum.

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