Tar Heels ACC Upset: Is Betting Against Duke Wise?

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00:00But the ACC, as it listed here at the FanDuel Sportsbook, a heavy favorite, I think the

00:03heaviest favorite across the board right now by far, it's Duke at a minus $3.30 price.

00:09And we were trying to compare and contrast this morning, Kevin, on the early line, like,

00:11boy, look at that price compared to like the other conferences with really good basketball

00:15teams.

00:16Like, understand this, Duke is phenomenal.

00:17Based on Ken Palm, I think the second best season in the history of his website, which

00:21shows you how dominant they've been, particularly in the ACC.

00:24But also understand this, Duke went 19-1.

00:27The two teams behind them, they only had two losses.

00:29And one of those teams did beat Duke.

00:31They're minus $3.30.

00:32The next closest, Clemson and Louisville, the two second place teams, plus $6.50 and

00:37a $7.01 price.

00:38So my question to you to start here is not, hey, do you think Duke wins the ACC championship?

00:43But is it worth a flyer where you take a small piece of Clemson and Louisville and say, somebody

00:47knocked down Duke, I got money in my pocket and at a good price?

00:50So I decided between two teams, neither were Louisville or Clemson, because I don't think

00:57anybody actually thinks one of them is beating.

01:00Yeah.

01:01Oh, go ahead.

01:02Go ahead.

01:03No, no.

01:04Yeah.

01:05I don't think anyone, I don't think anyone actually believes either Louisville or Clemson

01:06beats them.

01:07One of the teams I was deciding between was that legitimately Duke, because I think they

01:12are that good.

01:13Correct.

01:14And it's like, listen, I know this is ridiculous, but this is going to get paid out.

01:18And then what I actually bet was the 30-1 on North Carolina.

01:21Yeah.

01:22Let's go.

01:23Come on.

01:24Come on.

01:25Yeah.

01:26Come on.

01:27They had a second-half lead over Duke just the other day.

01:33That's the ticket that I want to hedge.

01:35That's the ticket that I want to hedge in the final.

01:38That's the big ticket.

01:39That's a free roll.

01:40That not Clemson at 7-1.

01:44Yes.

01:45And then, first of all, the Louisville game is a coin flip, just saying you pick Clemson,

01:50right?

01:51Then you get to, and let's say you don't get lucky, right?

01:54And let's say we're wrong about North Carolina.

01:57You play Duke.

01:58Duke's got like minus 600 to win that game.

02:02You're not hedging that.

02:03You're like, ah, just hope.

02:04You know what I mean?

02:05So they did.

02:06So did they play Duke?

02:07What?

02:08Round two?

02:09Is it probably going to be?

02:10Yes.

02:11I think Ben was trying to break it down when it is.

02:12In the semifinals, essentially.

02:13And honestly, I wouldn't even hedge that, because a $25 bet right now, 28-1 offhand

02:18was $700 back to you, $700 win.

02:22Yeah.

02:23It is farfetched and it is long, but Kevin is right.

02:26Like if smart batter goes, Duke's probably going to win this and minus 330 is there for

02:30a reason.

02:31Clemson and Louisville are probably the best teams to knock off Duke if they can.

02:34Clemson, by the way, already beat Duke.

02:36There's a chance there.

02:37But I just look at it saying like, time and circumstance, Duke gets knocked out in this

02:40tournament.

02:41Man, does Cooper even want to play in March Madden?

02:44Like, no, they're going to March Madden.

02:45It's going to be a great basketball team.

02:46They're going to be a great bet.

02:48Probably still like worst case if they get knocked out early, a two seed, worst case,

02:52which is they could probably get beat round number one again and still be a number one

02:57seed depending on how some of the other companies play out, except any crazy, crazy stuff happens.

03:02But I just look at that and say, like, Carolina is not like, okay, we beat Duke, awesome,

03:06we're in.

03:07No.

03:08They have to finish the deal and go quad one, quad one, you know, after them to take advantage

03:13of that.

03:14Yeah.

03:15I see it as well.

03:17I took the North Carolina shot.

03:20If it comes in, it comes in.

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