Can Canada's New Prime Minister Mark Carney Reset With Trump After Tariffs And Annexation Threat?

Forbes Breaking News

On "Forbes Newsroom," Stevie O'Brien, Government and Public Policy Specialist at McMillan, discussed Mark Carney, who won in a landslide vote among Canada's Liberal Party to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, and what his leadership could mean for the country's relationship with the United States.    Fuel your success with Forbes. Gain unlimited access to premium journalism, including breaking news, groundbreaking in-depth reported stories, daily digests and more. Plus, members get a front-row seat at members-only events with leading thinkers and doers, access to premium video that can help you get ahead, an ad-light experience, early access to select products including NFT drops and more:  https://account.forbes.com/membership/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=display&utm_campaign=growth_non-sub_paid_subscribe_ytdescript   Stay Connected Forbes on Facebook: http://fb.com/forbes Forbes Video on Twitter: http://www.twitter.com/forbes Forbes Video on Instagram: http://instagram.com/forbes More From Forbes:  http://forbes.com

Transcript

00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis, a breaking news reporter here at Forbes. Joining me now

00:07is Stevie O'Brien, lawyer as well as government and public policy expert with Macmillan. Stevie,

00:13thanks so much for joining me.

00:14Thank you so much.

00:15Stevie, I really appreciate the conversation today because you and I spoke after Prime

00:20Minister of Canada Justin Trudeau announced his resignation back in January. There was

00:25an election in Canada's Liberal Party over the weekend to replace him. Mark Carney won

00:31in a landslide victory, making him Canada's new prime minister. So to start off the conversation,

00:37who exactly is Mark Carney?

00:40Mark Carney has been a figure in Canadian political scene for a very long time, but

00:45never actually been a politician. He was governor of the Bank of Canada in 2008, sort of steering

00:52the country successfully through the financial crisis at the time. He went on then to be

00:57the governor of the Bank of England, steering the British economy through the very tumultuous

01:03Brexit period. He's got a CV of a strong economist banker. He's worked with conservative prime

01:12ministers and with liberal prime ministers. He's been in public service and he's been

01:19in the private sector. And so he's the one that Canadians think, or at least the Liberal

01:24Party thinks, is the best person to steer Canada through these sort of tumultuous times

01:32with tariffs and strained Canada-U.S. relations.

01:36I wanted to touch on that because those are two big things on his resume that stuck out

01:41to me. Governor of the Bank of Canada during the financial crisis in 2008 and also helping

01:47England during the Brexit chaos there. So people are confident that he is able to meet

01:53the moment really because of the tariff situation with the United States. Is that what you're

01:57saying?

01:58That's largely it. I think there's been a surge of popularity for the Liberal Party

02:05ever since Donald Trump has started talking about Canada as the 51st state or talking

02:14of and implementing tariffs. It has created sort of a national unity movement in Canada,

02:22which has benefited the Liberal Party, the greatest, who before Justin Trudeau stepped

02:27down was probably the lowest they had ever been in the polls and now is neck and neck

02:33with the Conservatives. And we anticipate there will be a general election called very

02:38soon.

02:40I know that within since President Trump announced the back and forth tariffs on Canada, Canadians

02:47have been really angry with America booing during the national anthem, some provinces

02:52taking American alcohol off of the shelves. Two months ago, you told me that liberals

02:57were probably polling at the lowest in modern history. So now is Donald Trump to blame or

03:05to the liberal benefit and surging them in the polls?

03:10Well, during the convention on Sunday where we elected Carney to the liberal leadership

03:16position, a former prime minister, Jean Chrétien, made the comment that we should give Donald

03:21Trump the order of Canada for uniting Canadians across the country so quickly and so with

03:29such force. I don't think we've seen this sign of domestic unity in a long time. Provinces

03:36working together, Canadians coming together across all stripes. And it is partially because

03:41of the tariffs. But I'd say the bigger the bigger piece is the sort of comments about

03:49governor of Canada, the 51st state comments. These have really riled up Canadian nationalism

03:57and threats to sovereignty or talks of annexation have really pulled the country together.

04:03And it's really interesting because this seemingly has come out of left field, at least

04:08from an American perspective. Canada and America are allies, long allies were neighbors. There's

04:15no appetite in lawmakers that I've talked to voters that I've talked to in Canada joining

04:21the United States. But President Trump, as you said, called Canada the 51st state called

04:26Justin Trudeau, the prime minister, governor. And I want to read you some of what Carney

04:31has said. He's called Trump a bully before. He's vowed that Canada will never be part

04:36of the United States. And this is what he said over the weekend. Quote, We didn't ask

04:40for this fight, but Canadians are always ready when someone else drops the gloves. So the

04:44Americans, they should make no mistake in trade as in hockey. Canada will win. So when

04:50you're looking at these remarks, when you're looking at Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and

04:54his tenuous relationship with President Trump in recent weeks, how do you think Carney's

05:00relationship with President Trump is going to look?

05:04So another thing that Carney said over the weekend is that you need to recognize the

05:09things you can change and the things you can't change. And he said specifically, we cannot

05:15change Donald Trump. He is going to continue to be who he is. But what Canada can do is

05:22look to our own economy and ways to strengthen it. We can find new trade partners who may

05:28be more reliable and we can focus on building different export avenues for for our energy,

05:35for our oil. And I think that that's what we can do. He will come to the table with

05:39a plan. He's a smart man. He will be able to to negotiate a new trade agreement, but

05:48he's not going to back down. And I think these tariffs are probably here for a while.

05:52And do Canadians like that, that the prime minister isn't going to back down because

05:58President Trump last week slapped tariffs on both Mexico and Canada. Canada responded

06:03immediately. Mexico said they were going to wait, announced their response over the weekend.

06:08Just days later, President Trump then announced he was pausing tariffs for most goods, the

06:12goods that fall under the USMCA agreement. And this week, Ontario placed a twenty five

06:18percent tariff on electricity exports to a handful of United States states. So is that

06:23something that's popular in Canada? These swift reactions? Yes, I think Canadians are

06:29expecting their politicians to stand up in this. And again, it's not just because of

06:35the tariffs. It's the threat to sovereignty. If somebody was threatening the existence

06:40of the United States as a country going forward, you could imagine that that would really bring

06:45people together and they may even be able to withstand some sort of economic hardship

06:52if it meant that they were standing up for the existence of their country. And I think

06:56that that's what we're seeing here. And that's also one of the differences with Mexico.

07:01I think something when I've talked to lawmakers about President Trump, even Republicans say

07:06sometimes President Trump, we don't exactly like the way he speaks. Sometimes he speaks

07:11hyperbolically. Are Canadians taking that seriously when he says Governor of Governor

07:17Trudeau, when he says we're making Canada the 51st state? Do Canadians see that as a serious

07:23threat? So so back in December, when it was first when it first came up, Canadians, the

07:30Canadian government thought it was a joke, but it has come up over and over again to

07:36the point where Canada really does see this as an existential threat to our sovereignty.

07:41There is a very big concern. Politicians are calling it dark days, a bigger crisis than

07:48COVID. And, you know, they're they're putting into place support support programs for workers

07:54doing massive amounts of diplomatic outreach to other to other allies. And yes, Canadians

08:00see it as as as America or at least this this administration, not not average Americans,

08:07but that this this administration is coming after our energy, our oil, our minerals and

08:13our water. Mark Carney, as you said, is a political outsider, largely is someone who

08:20worked at Goldman Sachs for part of his career, kind of reminiscent of Donald Trump in the

08:25way that he is a political outsider now is steering the ship in your country, so to speak.

08:30So do you think that with his leadership, it gives Canada and America the ability to

08:36reset and reset our relationship with one another?

08:41I certainly hope so. And I hope there's a willingness on both sides not to just be entrenched

08:46where we're at. I think what Carney said also over the weekend in his acceptance speech

08:51was that, you know, he Canada wants to feel some respect from the United States. And again,

08:57that's not on a tariff piece. It's with respect to those comments of annexation. And so I

09:01think until those comments are put to rest, things will remain tense. But I hope that

09:07both men and both countries can come together and forge a new relationship forward that

09:13works for everybody.

09:16It's really interesting because just two months ago, when you and I were talking, we were

09:19talking about a poll that was taken in December about the Conservative Party leader, Pierre

09:24Polly, of really trouncing Trudeau in the polls. It seems like the status quo worldwide

09:29that there was a conservative movement now with President Trump saying that Canada could

09:35be a state, say, calling the prime minister governor, threatening these tariffs, going

09:39back and forth with that. The Liberal Party seems to be surging a bit. As you said, there's

09:45this national unity. There's a general election coming up in Canada. What are people saying

09:50about that? Do you think liberals and Mark Carney have a shot here?

09:57For the first time in a couple of years, I would say, yes, the liberals have been trailing

10:02the polls. We talked about it in early January, but that's been a trend for the last two years.

10:07They haven't pulled this high since 2021. And I think what we're seeing is the progressive

10:14side, because in Canada we have more than two parties. So we also have other parties

10:18that are further left. So all of the progressive parties are kind of coming together and seeing

10:23this standing up to Donald Trump as something essential to our sovereignty and our sort

10:29of existence as a country. But also, you know, people on the farther right are moving to

10:35the to the Liberal Party because they think that Mark Carney is the sort of serious man

10:40that is needed in this moment. Peer Polyov has that populist not as very reminiscent

10:49of Trump's style of politicking. And when, you know, that's the sort of what you're confronting,

10:58that doesn't resonate as well as sort of a national unity cry when you're so you sound

11:04a lot like the person you're supposed to be standing up to.

11:08I know, at least from where I sit in America, there's whiplash when it comes to these tariffs,

11:13especially last week. I talked to guests when they were on. I talked to guests when they

11:18were off. At one point, I had an interview and the tariff policy switched. It feels like

11:23a spigot going on and off, on and off. I'm sure when you're you sitting in Canada, you

11:28feel the same way. So what are you looking out for next between now and the next tariff

11:34tit for tat between now and the general election? I can imagine it's a million things.

11:40Yeah, I think we are waiting for, you know, anything and everything and focusing on what

11:46we can control and not what on what we can't control. So focusing on expanding our trading

11:52network, shoring up our other relationships, but also hopefully working towards a solution.

11:59But yeah, it's been whiplash completely. I even think this morning, just before we started

12:04talking, the steel tariff was doubled against Canada. So things are very volatile. That

12:13could change again in a day. We don't. It's it's very, very fluid and a complete roller coaster.

12:19And to that point, it seems like the tariff was changed on a dime. The markets

12:24certainly aren't relaxed, reacting favorably to these tariffs. Is there a sense of how Canadians

12:31want to see someone negotiate with Donald Trump? Is there a sense of how you can negotiate with

12:37Donald Trump? Because I know that they want someone to be firm. I know from an American

12:42political perspective, Donald Trump doesn't want to appear weak. So how do you negotiate with that?

12:49I think it's going to be coming down much like in Trump's first administration,

12:55getting down to the nitty gritty of the what are the trade issues? What are the pain points?

13:01What can be what can we do to make sure both sides are economically prosperous? I think we

13:09really should be working and thinking North America supply chains writ large and sort of

13:15shoring us up as as a continental sort of defense and friendly allies when we know that there are

13:21many other countries that don't wish us well. We should be working together because Canada and

13:26America have been friends for a very long time and and hopefully will be for a very long time

13:31into the future. And to that point, based on you in Canada right now, based on your conversations

13:37with Canadians, is there a sense that this relationship is permanently fractured or is

13:42this just a pain point? We're going through a growing pain and America and Canada can

13:48be allies and friends once again. I think that remains to be seen how long these tariffs remain

13:56in place, how long the conversation around annexation is happening will make it very

14:03difficult to to be friends. There are other you know, there are other allied pieces, defense

14:09spending. There are pain points on both sides. So I think we there's a path back to friendship,

14:15but I think it's it's going to remain to be seen on whether and how this escalates and how both

14:21countries can sort of take a look at the larger picture and come forward with with a trade

14:27solution. Well, Stevie, I certainly always appreciate your perspective, especially you

14:33being in Canada, me being in America. Thank you so, so much. And you are welcome back anytime.

14:39Thanks for joining me. Thank you so much.

Category

Transcript

Recommended