Analysis: Two Sessions Meeting Comes as China Tests New Strategic Waters

TaiwanPlus News

Ja Ian Chong discusses China's recent annual Two Sessions meeting as geopolitical uncertainty rises abroad and deflationary pressure increases at home.

Transcript

00:00What have been some of the key items which have stood out to you at this year's two sessions?

00:05So I think the two sessions primarily focus on boosting the PRC's economy.

00:11So a lot of this has to do with consumption.

00:14Some of it also has to do with trying to boost production.

00:18But I guess the proof of the pudding is in the eating.

00:22So we'll have to see whether these moves actually work.

00:25They've been tried before the past few years with very limited results.

00:30As China continues to face deflationary pressure,

00:33what items has the two sessions talked about to improve consumer confidence?

00:38Some of the what looks like fiscal stimuli

00:42intends to sort of get more confidence in the economy through government spending

00:47and hopefully that will trickle down and have consumers spend more.

00:51But I think ultimately the PRC economy probably needs more structural change than that.

00:58As we see that this current environment is changing

01:02specifically with the uncertainty around US foreign policy,

01:06is there anything more that Beijing or the PLA can do right now

01:11regarding Taiwan, regarding their view of Taiwan?

01:14So I actually think that the PRC is trying to test the limits

01:20of where US policy might be.

01:21So this is not just with regard to Taiwan.

01:24Sure, there are the military exercises around Taiwan.

01:26There was the live fire exercise.

01:28But we've also seen them in the Yellow Sea.

01:30We've seen them more robust PLA activity in the East China Sea,

01:37in the South China Sea and also the exercises and circumvention of Australia.

01:42So the exercises of Australia and the circumvention of Australia.

01:46So they're trying to see where US alliances and partnerships stand

01:50and what they can possibly get around.

01:53So it's not just Taiwan.

01:54I think also what is interesting is in terms of the PRC and the PLA's position,

02:02they don't seem to be offering anything new.

02:06Do you think that the PRC might take a more aggressive diplomatic stance

02:11than in the near future or it might take a more tactful diplomatic stance?

02:15So I think what was quite interesting for me that came out of two sessions.

02:22One was a statement about how if Taiwan continues to hold out,

02:31the sort of offers of autonomy will be taken away.

02:35Well, that just suggests that Beijing can rescind whatever promises it makes

02:40at any point in time, which brings further questions

02:43about its commitment that doesn't, I think in my mind,

02:47make Beijing's offer more attractive.

02:49Then there's this other thing about Beijing trying to push forward

02:52on its claims about UN Resolution, General Assembly Resolution 2758,

02:57saying that Beijing's reading is that it puts Taiwan under PRC control,

03:04but there's no mention of Taiwan in the text.

03:07Now, what's interesting about it is as the PRC tries to push

03:11against the text of UNGA Resolution 2758, as it tries to push against UNCLOS,

03:20what it's in effect doing is weakening the body of international laws

03:26and regimes that currently help hold the international system in place.

03:33That may open the way for more efforts by major powers to push their way around.

03:42That's not just PRC.

03:43That can result, therefore, in a much more contentious environment

03:47for everybody, including Beijing.

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