US-China armed conflict 'no longer unthinkable' analyst says

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00:00China's Xi Jinping says his country is ready for trade, tariff or any kind of war until

00:06the very end.

00:07It's a remark that takes on a more menacing tone when you read that China's defence spending

00:11has been increased to over 7% or some $200 billion.

00:16This follows not just the trade tariff slapped on Chinese businesses by Donald Trump but

00:20also remarks about war made by the US defence secretary Pete Hegseth.

00:25China of course is close to North Korea.

00:27North Korea is sending arms and soldiers to fight for Russia in Ukraine.

00:30And China of course is at loggerheads with the US over the future of Taiwan.

00:36Tensions between China and the United States keep brewing.

00:40On Thursday, Beijing vowed to fight Donald Trump's trade war to the end, warning that

00:46his aggressive tariff policy will only backfire.

00:52These tariff threats are a typical example of unilateralism.

00:56They hurt others without benefiting the US itself.

01:00Following the announcement of the tariff policy, the three major stock market indexes in the

01:04US slumped immediately.

01:06What I'd like to stress here in particular is that there are no winners in a trade war

01:10and protectionism leads nowhere.

01:14This week, Donald Trump doubled tariffs on most Chinese imports to 20%, putting in danger

01:20the country's new growth objective of around 5%.

01:24China retaliated, slapping an additional 15% tariffs on some US products.

01:30And as diplomatic relations between the two global powers deteriorate, Beijing has repeatedly

01:35warned that it is ready for any kind of war with the United States.

01:41China has a clear and consistent position.

01:44Whatever kind of war it is, a tariff war, a trade war, a cold war or a hot war, it should

01:49not be fought and cannot be won.

01:52According to experts, 2025 will be marked by two main challenges for China, shielding

01:58its economy from the looming trade war and protecting its relationship with Russia, another

02:03important trade partner that Donald Trump is trying to warm up to.

02:09That relationship with Russia, of course, is one that has had a lot of scrutiny since

02:14the war being stepped up in Ukraine.

02:16That's bringing Robert Manning, fellow of the Global Foresight Hub and China Program

02:21at the Stimson Center.

02:23Robert, thanks for being with us here on France 24.

02:25We appreciate your time.

02:27First of all, let's deal with this issue about armed conflict between US and China.

02:32Am I overreading that?

02:34I hope I am.

02:36I think it's no longer unthinkable.

02:42I don't see, I think, you know, nobody wins a nuclear war.

02:46I think that was the Reagan-Gorbachev formulation.

02:51President Xi and Donald Trump, I think, endorsed that.

02:57But I think there's a very large uncertainty to the China policy that has yet to take shape

03:04under Donald Trump.

03:07And you have different goals among different senior advisors.

03:13You have the hawks at the fence, National Security Council, State Department, that want

03:18to weaken China.

03:22And you have Donald Trump, who's interested in making a grand bargain, a deal with China.

03:27And I think the Chinese are very prepared for all eventualities.

03:32You see it in the menu of tariffs, export controls, banning, blacklisting American firms

03:43and so on.

03:44And I think if the 20 percent tariffs now altogether are going to bite, and I think

03:51they're going to hit, for example, American farmers who have big export markets in China.

03:56They're going after American tech firms in China.

03:59So I think we're building tension that we'll have to, I think Trump wants to have a meeting

04:05with Xi and try to see if there's a deal possible.

04:10So this is all, it sounds like this is very much Trump using all this as a bargaining

04:14chip to get into the room with Xi and make the kind of deal he wants.

04:17And of course, as you just pointed out, there will be actual people on the ground in the

04:21U.S. who will suffer.

04:25No question.

04:26Prices are going up already.

04:30We're starting to see inflation tip up.

04:32The dollar is weakening when Trump wants it strong for exports.

04:38And so there's a lot of incoherence.

04:40You just saw it yesterday.

04:42Tariffs on, tariffs off, tariff on again in regard to Canada and Mexico.

04:47I think there's a lot of a spectacle of uncertainty and gamesmanship going on here because, for

04:59example, Trump met with the major auto companies who explained to them because of the deep

05:04integration of the North American auto market, these 25 percent tariffs would blow up the

05:10American auto industry.

05:11So suddenly he backs off of it.

05:14And I think there are similar potential clash points like that regard to China.

05:20Critical minerals, which are AI and other digital technology depends on, is an area

05:29that China has close to a monopoly in some areas.

05:33So there's going to be this game.

05:37One can imagine a deal.

05:39I think the way I like to look at it is to compare it to the situation we had with Japan

05:44in the 1980s.

05:45It ended up in the Plaza Accord, a big grand bargain that had to do with currency, the

05:53Japanese building factories here.

05:55Now, Donald Trump has said, for example, it's fine with him if the Chinese want to build

06:01battery and EV factories here as long as they hire American workers.

06:05That could be part of a package.

06:06The Chinese are, I think, presenting it as such.

06:10But then there are China hawks who feel it's a national security threat.

06:16So I don't know how that plays out.

06:17I think that's a battle that has not yet been fought within the administration.

06:21There is this lack of coherence, which is alarming.

06:24And given the first question, your first answer regarding the possibility of armed conflict,

06:29it does raise one's fears about that.

06:32Can I ask you about Taiwan?

06:34Because under Joe Biden, Joe Biden said that he would actually be willing to go into conflict

06:39if Taiwan was attacked.

06:41Donald Trump, I suspect, wouldn't make the same kind of pledge.

06:44However, if it meant that he could get hold of semiconductors and get some kind of monopoly

06:49from that, maybe he might.

06:52Do you think that that could be another issue that could be at play?

06:57That's a tricky issue, because again, a lot of hawks see Taiwan as a critical node for

07:03our American role in the Pacific.

07:05But Donald Trump seems to see Taiwan more as a bargaining chip.

07:09And then you have major TSMC chip investments already.

07:15They just committed to $100 billion more.

07:18So it wouldn't be shocking if Donald Trump says, well, gee, I've got all these chip investments

07:23from them anyway.

07:24What do I need Taiwan for?

07:25Why should I put Americans at risk?

07:27You just don't.

07:28That's, again, this contradictory incoherence of the different trends.

07:34And it's really anybody who tells you they know how it's going to play out is lying.

07:40Indeed.

07:41And it was Barack Obama back in the day who made that twist of U.S. foreign policy towards

07:46Asia-Pacific, saying that was the new area where they need to increase their influence.

07:51Yes.

07:52I mean, clearly, Trump would would do that if he saw something in it for him.

07:55I don't mean that for him personally, but maybe it might be for him personally.

07:58I mean, who knows where this goes?

08:00But clearly, you mentioned it, the transactional elements of Trump's approach could lead to

08:06these things happening.

08:07Yes.

08:08And also, don't forget, the overnight shift regarding Ukraine and the new rapprochement

08:16with Russia is really aimed at China.

08:19They have what I think is a delusional idea that they can do what's called a reverse Kissinger

08:24and somehow separate Russia from China.

08:28I think that's a fanciful thought, and that it may be if they made enough concessions

08:34to Putin, they might be able to create a sort of business-like normal relationship.

08:39But Putin, Putin's grievances about American power are not going to go away.

08:44And I think, you know, he has a vested interest in a lot of what's going on with China.

08:50So I don't see any kind of split.

08:52But that's the logic that's of many people in the Trump administration.

08:57And I think that's one reason I think Xi, with a kind of relatively vulnerable economy,

09:05may be interested in some deal that might might yield some concessions.

09:09But it's very hard to see what that deal would look like and how it would play out.

09:14It's hard to imagine a wedge being driven between Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping.

09:20Like I say, I think it might give the Russians a little bit more wiggle room and less dependence

09:25on China.

09:26But they're not going to.

09:27It's not going to be like the U.S.-China opening in the 70s.

09:31I don't see that as a possibility.

09:33Indeed.

09:34I mean, obviously, the recalibration that's going on in U.S. politics and U.S. foreign

09:39policy regarding who are the allies and who aren't is something that is alarming everybody

09:45across the board from Ukraine and just basically just move outwards from there.

09:49The fact we saw the U.N. just the other week, the U.S. voting along with Iran on an issue,

09:55that was unthinkable.

09:56We're in a real situation here where everything is changing completely, isn't it?

10:00And the tariffs that have been put on China, as you say, and then the reciprocal nature

10:04of that is clearly going to blow things up for a while.

10:07Do you think it will calm down at some point?

10:10Do you think that will be to the detriment?

10:11Well, it's going to be to the detriment of normal people because they always suffer first

10:14and longest.

10:15Do you think it will hurt Trump?

10:19I think it will hurt Trump over time as the consequences of his policies play out.

10:26But you have to understand, this is not a normal administration.

10:29This is a revolutionary effort to deconstruct the entire post-Cold War order.

10:35I think it's not a crazy analogy to think of it as an American version of a Mao's cultural

10:41revolution in the way he's dismantling the American state apparatus and the alliances

10:48and international organizations that have been the crux of American power since World

10:54War II.

10:56So I think we're in an interregnum where the old system is being buried and there's no

11:02real indication of what follows other than a kind of Hobbesian sphere of interest, war

11:08of all against all type of system.

11:10I hear what you're saying.

11:11Of course, it is worth noting that many, many millions suffered during that cultural revolution

11:16change put on China by Chairman Mao.

11:20Thank you very much indeed, Robert Manning from the Global Foresight Hub and China Program

11:24at the Stimson Center for sharing your analysis with us.

11:27It is a delicate scenario and your insight, I think, helped give certainly me a few glimmers

11:33of light to look forward and we sort of will wait to see what happens, of course, and I'm

11:36sure our viewers would thank you as well for your insight too.

11:39Robert Manning, thank you from the Stimson Center.

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