Trump standoff has given Canadian Liberals a second life, analyst says

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00:00This is Apropos. Donald Trump and his threats to slap punishing tariffs on his northern

00:07neighbour dominated a televised leadership debate this week as part of the race to become

00:12Canada's next Prime Minister. The contenders to succeed Justin Trudeau clamoured to present

00:18themselves as the best choice to take on the US President. Let's hear first from front-runner

00:24former Central Bank Governor Mark Carney.

00:28Let me start by being clear. We will never, ever be part of the United States in any way,

00:35shape or form. We have to recognise that the Donald Trump of today is different than the

00:40Donald Trump of several years ago. Then his objective was to take more of our market.

00:47Now he wants to take our country.

00:50Trump represents the biggest threat our country has seen since the Second World War. I have

00:57recognised that from the outset. I've built my campaign on a plan to answer that threat.

01:05I do think, though, it is a big mistake for Canadians to think that because we can't change

01:11Trump we can't negotiate with him. Of course we can't change him, but we can outwit him.

01:20He did a deal with Putin for critical minerals in Ukraine. Who else has critical minerals?

01:27Canada. And so we need to understand what the US is trying to do here, but we also need

01:33to make sure that we are standing up for our sovereignty and for our economy.

01:38The Liberals are due to announce their new leader on the 9th of March. Mark Carney saying

01:42he might call an immediate election if he wins. In any case, a vote must be held by

01:47the 20th of October. For more, let's cross live now to our correspondent Emily Ragubir.

01:53Emily, we heard candidates talking about the US President there. Just how much of a shadow

01:58is Donald Trump casting over this campaign?

02:02Sharon, it is the common denominator for this Liberal leadership race, absolutely. I mean,

02:10the game has completely changed. This is a new ballgame for Canadian politics and for

02:14this Liberal leadership race. And, you know, it's really been a tumultuous past month since

02:20the US President Donald Trump came into power for a second term, and it has changed the

02:26entire Canadian political landscape on its head.

02:29Now, for international viewers, if we take it back just late last year when the Canadian

02:34Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stepped down from position, or announced his resignation

02:39to step down as Prime Minister, the Liberals as a party was not very much in good standing

02:46here. And now, since this whole tumultuous situation has since taken shape with the US

02:51President, it has really become a lifeline for the Liberals, for the Liberal Party overall.

02:58And so we just heard there from all four candidates, Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank

03:02of Canada and former governor of the Bank of England, he is running and positioning

03:06himself as an outsider to this. In fact, saying that he wasn't part of this governing

03:12Liberal Party for, for example, the past 10 years as they've been in power, and is coming

03:17to this as an outsider. He is by trade an economist, and he is saying that he is best

03:21positioned to deal with these tariff threats.

03:24Chrystia Freeland, former Deputy Prime Minister and former Finance Minister, she is positioning

03:29herself as a negotiator who has taken on Donald Trump in his first term in office,

03:36renegotiating the USMCA, otherwise known as the new NAFTA. And that was back in 2018.

03:43But as Mark Carney, who was one of the front runners and pretty much leading this race

03:48as it stands today, he did say that just right, just right there, said this is not the same

03:54president we are dealing with four years ago. This, he is not after markets, he is

04:00after the country. And the other two, the other two of the four candidates, Corina Gold,

04:05she is the former House leader of the Liberal Party. She is really speaking to younger voters

04:10and speaking to Canadians here who are troubled with the economy, troubled with the cost of

04:15living and housing.

04:17And finally, Frank Baylis, he is a former MP, also a businessman. And he, much like

04:22the other candidates, say that we, Canada really needs to shore up their partnership

04:27with other allies around the world and start looking to diversifying how Canada does business

04:33with other allies and also within this, their own country here in Canada.

04:38Emily, we'll have to leave it there for now. That's our correspondent, Emily Ragobert.

04:42To discuss further, we're joined now by Guillaume Lavoie, Associate Member of the Raoul Dandouran

04:48Chair in Strategic and Diplomatic Studies at the University of Quebec in Montreal. Thanks

04:54so much for being with us on the programme this evening. Rather, we heard Emily talking

05:00a little bit there about the candidates who are in the running. We saw them debating on

05:04TV this week. What is the verdict? Who do you think is best placed to face off against

05:09Donald Trump?

05:10Well, good to be with you. It is phenomenal, I think perhaps unique in Canadian history

05:18that the fundamental question of a campaign could have changed so much in so little time.

05:25It used to be, the ballot question used to be, who can replace Justin Trudeau and the

05:31fastest place? And now it's who can face Donald Trump? And therefore, that ambiance is favouring

05:39the Liberals, giving them a second life for sure, because it's the traditional party of

05:44government in Canadian history. And Mark Carney is playing up his CV. Every indicator

05:51so far seemed to favour Mark Carney to take the helm of the Liberal Party and become Prime

05:57Minister immediately as he wins the leadership race. But even now, the Conservative Party

06:05is changing its tune, changing its slogan, for example, which is now Canada First, which

06:12is both as a reaction to Donald Trump, but yet aping Donald Trump's slogan too. So this

06:21is a completely changed conversation about the next election.

06:26Yeah, the Conservative leaders have been praised by Donald Trump and Elon Musk. Parallels being

06:31drawn between him and Donald Trump, their style of leadership. Is this a help or a hindrance

06:36though to a campaign taking place in Canada if there is a snap election to be called?

06:42In either case, there will be an election before the end of the year.

06:45There are no real parallels between Trump and Mr. Poitier, the Conservative leader in

06:51Canada, as there are very few parallels between any democratic politician and Donald Trump.

06:58But there are some echoes, for example, some sort of a taste of anti-elite going after

07:06the central bank, saying he will never send his ministers to Davos. And now what we see

07:11is the Conservative leader and the Conservative Party are pivoting very quickly away from

07:17anything that could be exploited as such, because this would be the first, second, and

07:22third lines of attack by the Liberals. So we're really, the Conservatives are probably

07:29hoping that we go back to, and that might happen in a few weeks, to a conversation on

07:34cost of living, inflation, releasing energy projects, which was the real conversation

07:41before. One hope perhaps for the Conservatives is that there is a certain accoutrements or

07:50normalization of dealing with Donald Trump. And what is perceived today as a very acute

07:56crisis might become everyday news a month from now. And therefore, we'll see what might

08:02happen. But as we were walking into a huge Conservative majority, now my prediction would

08:09probably be that it's still a Conservative government, but with a much smaller majority.

08:15And yet a Liberal win is not out of the realm of possibilities.

08:19Well, whoever does win, Guillaume, apart from Donald Trump and the various threats that

08:24he's currently posing to Canada, what other challenges lie ahead? You've got a weak economy

08:29and there's also a housing crisis currently.

08:31Well, perhaps Donald Trump has, well, Canada has to be perhaps thankful to Donald Trump

08:38on one thing. It was his arrival, his style, his insults have been a bit of a wake-up call

08:44to Canada, whose participation to NATO is defenceless. Right now, no credible politician

08:52will campaign without promising to significantly increase defence budget for the Canadian government,

09:02to cleaning up public finances, who are in an abysmal state with huge deficits of the

09:08Trudeau era, and also to strengthen other partnerships beside the U.S., to diversify

09:14trade with the EU, for example, as top of the list, and to assert more greatly the Canadian

09:21presence on the Great North. So those would be, right now, not a Conservative or Liberal

09:27issue. It's become a common trend where if you want to win any votes in the next election,

09:35you have to position yourself.

09:37And what about the prospect, a very real prospect, of tariff hikes for Canada? All the potential

09:43leaders there agree they pose a threat, but what exactly is to be done?

09:48Well, it is a grave threat to Canada. Let's resume Canada very quickly. Half of our national

09:55wealth comes from exports, and three quarters of that goes to the U.S. So it's a major,

10:01major threat. But Canada is not without bargaining power. We are an energy superpower. We're

10:07the U.S. number one client. We're the U.S. number one supplier for energy and other significantly

10:14strategic supply, for example, potash, which is linked to the ability of the U.S. to develop

10:21its agriculture. Aluminium, for which Quebec and Canada is by far the most important supplier.

10:28And energy, for sure, from oil to gas, to uranium, to electricity. So it will hurt the

10:35Americans a lot, and it will hurt Canada, too. But there is the speech of Donald Trump,

10:42that Canada's best allies in this fight are Americans, American businesses, clients, governors.

10:5138 of the 50 U.S. states have Canada as their number one trading partner. So right now,

10:59it's not Canada that's going to convince Donald Trump. It is Canada's allies, mainly American

11:04partners, who will pressure the White House. And the fact that Donald Trump has been speaking

11:09so much lately about his desire for Canada to become the 51st U.S. state, has that been

11:15playing much of a role in the campaign? Well, it's certainly galvanized some sort of

11:22a pride to be Canadian. We saw it in hockey. You see many more flags now. There is no – let

11:29me be very clear – there is no basis in reality for Canada to become a U.S. state.

11:35That does not exist. It is not shared. It doesn't matter which province you are. And

11:42if anything, it probably helped the Liberals. It probably helped national unity in Canada.

11:48So Donald Trump here, perhaps by becoming this adversary, has brought Canadians closer

11:54than in many years before. Unity through disunity, perhaps. Guillaume,

11:59thank you so much for being with us on the program this evening. We do appreciate your

12:02time. That's Guillaume Lavoie, Associate Member at the Raoul d'Anderon Chair in Strategic

12:08and Diplomatic Studies at the University of Quebec.

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