Bonnie Glaser: Taiwan Faces Pivotal Moment in Defense and Politics

TaiwanPlus News

In an exclusive interview, Bonnie Glaser, head of the Indo-Pacific Program of the United States German Marshall Fund, explains why she believes Taiwan is facing a pivotal moment for its domestic politics and defense amid growing global unpredictability.

Transcript

00:00I want to first off start off with asking about the current state of US-Taiwan relations.

00:05Are Taipei and Washington the closest that they've ever been?

00:08Well, I certainly think that the US-Taiwan relationship is very strong.

00:12It has really been moving from strength to strength.

00:16There is so much that binds our two societies, our peoples, our countries together.

00:22And concern about China's pressure on Taiwan is one of them.

00:27Our economic relationship is extremely strong.

00:32And I think that we do face some uncertainty going forward.

00:36We do have a new president in Washington.

00:38I think it's not completely clear yet how President Trump will be approaching Taiwan.

00:45But you know, Taiwan is not alone because every country in the world is facing some

00:50unpredictability with Trump and pressure.

00:54And so I think that there's no reason to believe that the relationship will not remain

00:59strong going forward.

01:01But there will be demands, I think, from President Trump and there will be a little bit of adjustments.

01:07We've already seen President Trump put pressure on Canada, on Mexico, on Denmark because President

01:17Trump wants to acquire Greenland.

01:19So Taiwan is not alone.

01:21I do want to ask about this word chain.

01:23So recently, the United States State Department on the Taiwan fact sheet, I'm going to read

01:28this verbatim, drop the phrase, quote, we do not support Taiwan independence.

01:31Bonnie, I want to ask you how significant that change is.

01:35And is the United States trying to say something without saying it?

01:38Well, first, I would say we don't know who changed that language.

01:43You might remember that early in the Biden administration, that same sentence was deleted.

01:48And approximately one week later, it was reinserted in the website.

01:54So nobody talked about how that happened.

01:58But this time, my view is that there is a perception in some of the people in the administration

02:08that we don't have to say all the time that the United States doesn't support Taiwan independence.

02:17Partly because I think the government here thinks that it doesn't need to be said all

02:22the time.

02:23But the important thing is that this is not a change in policy.

02:26And it's quite clear to me that the other language on the website that the United States

02:32opposes unilateral change in the status quo by either side of the strait already covers

02:39that the United States doesn't support Taiwan independence.

02:42So it's not a change in policy.

02:44I do have a bit of a concern that because we are in a transition in our administration,

02:51and there's anxiety, frankly, in Beijing, that they might overreact to this change in

02:58language.

02:59So it might be seen as very welcome here.

03:01But I hope that we don't see a very strong reaction from China.

03:05It's the public displays of aggression in the legislative sessions or agreements or

03:11disagreements on defense spending, whether it's the submarine or conscription.

03:15When it comes to, like you mentioned about the first step of having both sides agree

03:20and then engage with the United States, how big is that obstacle of both the KMT and the

03:25DPP not agreeing in order to see the common good, which is the defense of the country?

03:30I'll tell you an anecdote.

03:32I met with the delegation from Taiwan that attended the Trump inauguration.

03:38The day after the inauguration, they all met with members of Congress.

03:42I believe they met with 24 members of Congress.

03:44It was like speed dating.

03:46They each had like 15 minutes.

03:48And I heard from the delegation members that every member they met with was concerned about

03:55defense spending and the budget here.

03:58But of course, it goes way beyond defense spending, because the freezes, the cuts are

04:03affecting many different aspects of your government and society.

04:09And I think the United States is quite concerned about that.

04:12We certainly have polarization in my country, in our political system, but I have to tell

04:18you there are issues in which there is some bipartisan consensus and agreement.

04:24And I think that Taiwan really needs to figure out how it can, the steps it can take to best

04:33defend the country, to ensure that the foreign ministry is doing its job, the defense ministry,

04:41the Ministry of Interior that's doing part of this whole of society, defense resilience.

04:46It seems to me that right now this is a pivotal moment.

04:52And if the budget is not approved and the society is not able to move forward in a positive

05:01direction, then I worry that this is something that will create more weaknesses and vulnerabilities

05:07in Taiwan that Beijing can take advantage of.

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