Indian Election analysis: Kerala, West Bengal and Maharashtra

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00:00Good morning and welcome back to Gulf News and our special coverage on the 2019 Indian

00:08elections. The world's largest democracy, the votes are being counted and the results are

00:14coming in right now but it's perhaps a little too early to decide especially because only 20% of the

00:21votes have been counted and 610 million people voted with over 8,000 candidates for 542

00:29seats and the majority required is 272. So it is going to be an extremely interesting day and we

00:36have several panels lined up for you today to ensure that you get all the information that

00:42you need to stay informed on the Indian election coverage. Right now with me are Sanjeev Das,

00:48Chiranjeev and Shyam who are here to talk to us about the earliest kind of leads that are coming

00:57in. Sanjeev is going to talk to us a bit about Maharashtra, Chiranjeev is going to give us an

01:01insight on West Bengal and Shyam is going to talk to us about the south especially the Congress and

01:07a bit about Tamil Nadu. So starting off with you Sanjeev, so what is Maharashtra telling us right

01:14now? See the story that we that we see right now emerging out of Maharashtra is that BJP once again

01:19got its alliance politics right in Maharashtra because there was fair bit of agrarian distress.

01:24Maharashtra is one state where the farmers weren't happy, there were many instances of

01:28farmer deaths in Maharashtra. Especially with the water scarcity and the heat wave etc. But

01:35BJP got its alliance politics right, they tied up with Shiv Sena. If you remember Amit Shah flew

01:40down to Bombay, I mean Mumbai and he had a session with the BJP and the Shiv Sena top brass in Bombay

01:47and as a result of that what has happened is Shiv Sena got a fair bit of seeds in Maharashtra which

01:53would have gone to BJP you know in a in a different scenario where BJP would have fought it

01:57alone. But the fact that Amit Shah got it worked out right down to the last detail and he gave

02:04fair bit of seeds to Shiv Sena. It really helped BJP in these elections as we see it right now that

02:10the BJP Shiv Sena alliance in Maharashtra has got extremely good results which I think were

02:15unthinkable maybe five six months before. So I think Maharashtra is one of the biggest stories

02:21right now in Western India. Yeah but then Sanjeev this brings to me a question is that Maharashtra

02:28lot of times has voted for Shiv Sena for the longest time. So in this case is it Shiv Sena

02:33gaining or was it a rather clever move by BJP? Actually what has happened in Maharashtra is that

02:39the seed sharing arrangement which the BJP had with Shiv Sena that has been worked out you know

02:45in a very clever way. They've played to their strengths and they worked out a strategy whereby

02:50wherever in pockets where Shiv Sena is in you know in a better position to give a tough fight

02:55they have allowed that seed to go to Shiv Sena and wherever BJP thought they would put up a better

02:59fight against the Congress those seeds have gone with BJP. So I think the seed sharing arrangement

03:04in Maharashtra has done the trick and Congress and NCP really couldn't match BJP so far as that

03:09strategy is concerned. So which brings us to the question that has India voted against dynastic

03:17politics and kind of against the previous parties that have been in power especially in West Bengal

03:23where you're seeing rather startling results. If you just rewind back a little bit then I think

03:31we will see that the BJP and the RSS both together they have been eyeing Bengal as a you know prime

03:37asset for quite a long time and this so project sort of. They have been working on it ever since

03:432014. Exactly yes and this time around you know even exit polls gave between you know some gave

03:518, some gave 10, some gave 15 but I think the projections that we get now of between 18 to 20

03:57seats for the BJP in Bengal they seem to have outdone themselves and you know there are two

04:03things that have happened. One is that if you also see the CPM's vote share and the CPM's tally so

04:09far is zero in Bengal. It has failed to open its account which has never happened in Bengal ever.

04:16There are lots of you know concerns that there was an ambush of these leftist votes and the CPM votes

04:25which translated into a bigger gain for the BJP and as a result if you see the vote share the

04:32BJP and the Trinamool are almost neck and neck. BJP has about 43% vote share in Bengal. People were

04:38you know earlier ridiculing this sort of a figure but it's right now it's happening right now

04:43unfolding before our eyes. So what does that mean for Mamata? I think this requires a lot of

04:50introspection for Mamata Banerjee and you know we have seen the kind of very bruising election

04:56campaign. The Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi himself campaigned you know several times in

05:02Bengal which is not the kind of attention that Bengal has ever received from any other Prime

05:07Minister. And I think that's a concern a lot of analysts are also raising that the BJP actually

05:15works at the grassroots and the ground level whereas the Congress kind of abdicates responsibility

05:21or abdicates where they think they have to fight and then just walk away which is probably the

05:26reason that you are seeing these current early trends. Yes you know especially in the context

05:31of Bengal it is quite ironic because this is the same kind of cadre based discipline that you saw

05:36during the rule of the left front. You know there was like grassroots level contacts and you know

05:41they set up touch points, they reached out to people rather than you know sitting in campaign

05:48offices and you know assuming things. So this is the same tool or the same weapon that the BJP seems

05:53to have deployed with a better efficiency, more money and more muscle. Which brings us to Kerala

05:59and the south and interesting results from there. Shyam what do you have to tell us?

06:04So what we see in south is a push against the BJP I think except in Karnataka I think all the

06:10other states have said no to BJP actually. And what is more interesting is Kerala. Kerala holds

06:1620 seats at the moment it looks like going the Congress led UDF's way. But one seat that's the

06:23Alappuzha one which is going, they are exchanging hands between at least when 20 percent of votes. Which is kind of

06:28swinging back and forth that you were saying. They are changing leads. So that's the only thing

06:33otherwise the rest of the 19 seats it looks going the Congress way or the Congress led UDF's way

06:40which is in total contrast to what we see across the country. So also in Tamil Nadu the DMK

06:48led front is doing well. BJP seem to have made inroads in Telangana but still

06:54they still don't have the upper hand. But Karnataka the story is they have made inroads.

06:58But I guess like I said earlier it's a little early but still trends are showing these kind

07:04of results. And interesting results for Rahul Gandhi. It looks like Rahul might

07:12win with a record margin. He and Kunjali Kutty is in a race to get the maximum number of votes.

07:19What's also interesting is Shashi Tharoor's fate because right up to the exit polls even months

07:26before they were saying that he would lose to the BJP former party president Kumaran Rajasekaran.

07:34Up till yesterday they were saying of course all the analysts everywhere are dismissing it but exit

07:39polls gave it to Kumaran Rajasekaran. So what we see now is Shashi Tharoor very much in the fray.

07:47I mean he is leading by a handsome margin really. So India and the Indian people are giving us

07:54some interesting results. So we will definitely be tracking this coverage with live updates as

07:59always. And like I said earlier we will be bringing it to you as often as possible. So definitely

08:05stay tuned to all our channels and all our platforms that is including Facebook, Twitter,

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08:23the story so you can also get updates on your phone. Meanwhile do log on to gulfnews.com for

08:30the news, views and analysis. Thank you very much for joining us. We will be back soon.

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