New Calculations Reveal Odds of Asteroid 2024 YR4 Colliding With Earth More Than Doubled

Amaze Lab

At the end of last year astronomers detected a new asteroid named 2024 YR4  but it wasn’t like other solar system travelers. That’s because this one passed right by us and, after further calculations, experts say it might just cross our path.

Transcript

00:00At the end of last year, astronomers detected a new asteroid named 2024 YR4, but it wasn't

00:10like other solar system travelers.

00:12That's because this one passed rather closely.

00:14And after initial telemetry data was crunched, scientists concluded it had about a 1% chance

00:19of smashing into Earth in 2032.

00:22In fact, that 1% chance even put the asteroid at the top of the ESA's asteroid risk list.

00:27Now experts have continued to track it and run simulations, and unfortunately, the chances

00:31of it hitting Earth have gone up.

00:34Astronomers now say there is a whopping 2.3% chance that 2024 YR4 collides with Earth in

00:39around 7 years.

00:41That's based on 1,000 orbital simulations.

00:43And while 977 of them had the asteroid pass close, between us and the moon, 23 of them

00:48saw the asteroid impact our planet.

00:512024 YR4 isn't the largest asteroid out there, but it certainly isn't small.

00:55With estimates putting it around 130 to 328 feet in diameter, and it's fast, traveling

01:01at around 38,000 miles per hour.

01:04Still, experts say we would have years to prepare and assess exactly where it would land.

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