Analyzing Patrick Mahomes' Odds to Win SB MVP: Market Trends

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00:00The favorite in the market is on Patrick Mahomes at a plus 120 price.

00:05Saquon Barkley at plus 250 in front of the Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts at plus 350.

00:12And then this drops down to really anything else is a long shot.

00:1614 to 1, Kelsey would really be his own tier.

00:19And now you're at 33 to 1 on Xavier Worthy and A.J. Brown.

00:23Then you get another level, Devonta Smith, Kareem Hunt, Chris Jones, Hollywood Brown.

00:28And then it's 101 or greater as you start to get deeper and deeper down the board.

00:35I'll ask.

00:36I'll start with this.

00:38If Kansas City wins, Donnie, do you think any bet outside of Mahomes is a wasted ticket?

00:45Everything will be a wasted ticket.

00:46And the reason I say that is it would be a catastrophic failure by the Philadelphia

00:50Eagles to lose this football game and Patrick Mahomes not be the best player in this.

00:54I mean, what happened?

00:55Strip sack fumbles all over the place.

00:57Kareem Hunt, 16 carries for 278 and four touchdowns.

01:00What needs to happen for Kansas City outside of Patrick Mahomes?

01:03So for me, I actually look at this, Joe, as like the price points here.

01:06Patrick Mahomes to win MVP is about a plus 120, let's call it here.

01:10I don't see any way, shape, or form they can win this football game without him winning that,

01:13which means you get the extra 20 to 30 cents, depending on the juice that you're laying at

01:17that point.

01:17But to Kevin's initial question, again, there's so many ways you can look at this football game.

01:21I can't see Kansas City winning this game without Mahomes winning the MVP.

01:26I agree with you.

01:27I would just say the only other name I would throw out potentially on the KC side is if

01:32Kelsey has a big game because it's a recognizable name.

01:36And we saw this play out potentially with the Stafford situation with Cooper Cup,

01:42right, where Cup steps up and catches the touchdown and sort of steals it from Stafford.

01:47And I know it's a different type of situation.

01:50We're talking about potentially the greatest quarterback modern day and going up for his

01:55fourth potential Super Bowl.

01:56But I would say Kelsey would be the only one outside.

01:59You have a bunch of household names on Kansas City, right, meaning like non-household names,

02:04right, outside of Kelsey.

02:06I mean, Kareem Hunt would have to have a super day.

02:08DeAndre Hopkins would have to, you know, 180 yards, too.

02:12I mean, we're talking about dynamic performances.

02:16I would just say this, though.

02:18What Donnie said kind of tips the scales to me in that if the Eagles lose this game and

02:25it doesn't go to Mahomes, that would actually somehow be more gut-wrenching, even if I don't

02:29think Pat's going to have that type of day.

02:31What I would add on top of that, though, is if you had to give out an MVP for the Chiefs

02:34victory against the Texans, I don't think Pat is in the top two options.

02:40I think Kelsey's seven for 117 and a score beats out Mahomes' 177 and a touchdown with

02:46no interceptions.

02:47And I think due to the dominance of the defense, Carloftis' three sacks would have been...

02:52Now, you completely mitigate the point, Donnie, once you say, right.

02:58But again, are the Eagles going to look anything near what Houston looked like?

03:03And I think that that's very unlikely.

03:05So I think it's a point well taken.

03:06I will say the quarterback position, it is obviously the position it goes to very frequently.

03:14I feel as if maybe not as frequent as you would think.

03:1933 of 58 is about 56 percent, right?

03:25That's like minus 130 if you take kind of the implied odds of it all, right?

03:30Where if I would say, ah, what's it to go to a quarterback?

03:32Minus 300?

03:33Well, it should be.

03:34It must always go to a quarterback.

03:36And one thing that I thought was a little interesting, but since it was 1983, so from

03:41Super Bowl 17 on, I believe it would be, we have seen quarterbacks win it three consecutive

03:47times or better just once.

03:49There was a stretch from 2010 to 2013 where we had four consecutive quarterbacks.

03:54We've seen QB come in two straight years.

03:58So it wouldn't, I have been tempted by the any other, which is plus 135 on Fandul.

04:06Caesars had a plus 145.

04:07Basically, this award isn't going to go to a quarterback.

04:11And one of the more encouraging aspects of that bet for me is right now, I think it's

04:16going to go to Saquon Barkley.

04:17No, it's a great look.

04:19That's why he's priced ahead of Jalen Hurts, right?

04:21What was he at the start when they first put out the odds?

04:23He was plus 250.

04:25Hurts was 310, right?

04:26You know what's funny though, Joe?

04:28That didn't actually flip until the LA game.

04:32They had Hurts booked with a little bit of distance in front of Saquon Barkley.

04:35It reminded me of the debate last year, kind of where you guys are like, yeah, look, they're

04:40going to give it to McCaffrey.

04:41I'm like, nah, the quarterbacks, the quarterbacks, the quarterbacks.

04:43But even in that moment, the Purdy-McCaffrey numbers were very close, right?

04:48It started out with a much bigger gap for Jalen in front of Saquon, and now Saquon is

04:53comfortable.

04:54You can't find a book where they have the same number.

04:56Comfortably, it is Saquon in front of Jalen.

04:58It is, and let's just say he does what you think he's going to do, and let's just say

05:02breaks the single-season, post-season record, maybe potentially challenges Timmy Smith's

05:08record of what, 205, 204?

05:11I mean, that's a performance that's second to none, right?

05:14And the body of work, knowing what he has meant to this team, a 2,000-yard rusher, it's

05:20great value.

05:21I, it's not a market I'm going to be betting all in, right?

05:25I might sprinkle a little.

05:26I will say this, for me, if we're looking for deep shots, I like defense.

05:32You know, and again, we talk about Devin White's performance a few years ago, deserving

05:38potentially of the MVP.

05:40I would take a shot on Jalen Carter and some maybe, Zach Vaughn, who's been very active,

05:45interceptions, maybe a pick six, you know, and obviously a game-changer.

05:49And I'll throw out a name, and it's just a name if you want to take the lottery ticket,

05:53Cooper Dejean.

05:54And the reason why I say that, starting defensive back, you have the potential for a pick six

06:00or let's say a key interception, and he returns kicks.

06:04So we know how special teams, he's 120, I believe, to one.

06:08More than that.

06:08More, 200 to one, something like that.

06:10Yeah, just to piggyback off you, I think it's a great look.

06:12Like right now, Fandul, 200 to one from the MVP, but I want to pick up on Joe's point

06:16there, the chance for the pick six and also the, well, special teamers don't get it.

06:201990s, was it Desmond Howard?

06:21Yeah.

06:22Had a Super Bowl MVP because he returned one.

06:24Take a look at Remigio here, one of the kick returners for Kansas City, 600 to one.

06:28Will Shipley returns kicks, 750 to one.

06:31We're not saying you're putting a lot of money down, but you want to talk about two or three

06:34dollars down on some of those guys.

06:35The possibility of returning a kick in a sloppy football game, you get moved right up top.

06:40Yeah, and Dejean, for me, he's doing it both, right?

06:42Because he returns kicks and he's a starting defensive back.

06:45You get the double boost in that matter.

06:48You're only going to do it if you do something like that anyway.

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