More likely to win a title, Giants or Warriors?

KGMZ-FM / 95.7 THE GAME

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00:00What was the question you just asked me?

00:02Off the air?

00:03Yeah.

00:04You want me to bring that?

00:05Bring it.

00:06I would love to.

00:07Which team, and I was thinking of the three professional teams here, but the Niners are

00:11clearly the one with the lowest odds to win a title next year.

00:15The Super Bowl odds are already out for next year.

00:17What are the Niners?

00:18The Niners are 18-1.

00:19And where does that rank?

00:21That ranks number seven.

00:22You've got the Chiefs and Bills at 6-1, then it's Ravens, Lions, Eagles, Commanders, then

00:28it's the Niners and Bengals tied at 18-1.

00:32How quickly our thoughts change.

00:34The Commanders are more likely, in the minds of bettors, to win next year than the Niners.

00:39Yes.

00:40Wow.

00:41And...

00:42Jaden Daniels is good.

00:43All right, go ahead.

00:44The Raiders are 100-1, not last, but ahead of only the Saints, Titans, and Giants.

00:47It made me think, which team has lower odds to win a title?

00:53The 21-21 Warriors, or the 0-0 San Francisco Giants?

01:00And that's a great question.

01:05All right.

01:06Thank you, Buster.

01:07When you say lower odds, I want to make sure we define this correctly.

01:12Lower odds meaning longer odds.

01:14No, lower would be you have a better chance.

01:17A better chance.

01:18Right.

01:19Yeah.

01:20Higher would be longer.

01:22Lower would be better.

01:24I think that the city of Las Vegas, Nevada, and the bettors would say that the Warriors

01:34have a more likely chance of winning a championship than the San Francisco Giants.

01:39Interesting, because when you think about it, you've got a Warrior team that's 42 games

01:45into an 82-game season, and they are what the record says they are.

01:50Correct.

01:51And I believe the cliche actually works for them better than ever, because they kind of

01:54are 21-21.

01:55Well, yeah, and the Giants are what their record says they are, too.

01:59Which is 0-0.

02:00Correct.

02:01And you are correct, but it's a lot closer than you might think.

02:06Well, no, I would actually, now, if I were betting it, or ask me what I think is more

02:12likely.

02:13Hey, Mark, what do you think is more likely?

02:14Giants.

02:15Yeah.

02:16And I find both of them to be wildly unlikely.

02:19Well, and Vegas would agree with you, because the Warriors, as we sit right now, are plus

02:235,000, 50-1, to win the NBA championship to hoist the Larry O'Brien and the Giants.

02:32What do you think they are?

02:33Wait, what did you say the Warriors are?

02:3550-1.

02:3650-1, and I would say the Giants are 75.

02:4066-1, pretty good guess.

02:44But to me, it's actually not even, like there's no question that the Giants are more likely.

02:50For all kinds of sort of, maybe they're flimsy reasons, again, I agree that both are wildly

02:58unlikely, but first of all, the Giants play baseball, and baseball is where you can get

03:05a quirky championship the easiest.

03:08Points to you early for that.

03:09Secondly, I don't know what the, we don't even know who's on their roster.

03:13True.

03:15The unknown sits with the Giants.

03:18The Warriors, not only do we know exactly who they are, not only do we look at the current

03:24trade market and see not much in the way of answers, but for me, the reason the Warriors

03:31are just like almost completely off the table, the Warriors could end up being really good.

03:36They could make a trade, get healthy, and start humming.

03:40Do you realize how many teams they need to cross, and how often something like that happens

03:46in the NBA?

03:47I'd argue, and I don't have this in front of me, but I would bet that no team in the

03:54history of the NBA has been the 11th seed at the halfway point and then won a title.

04:01I bet that's never happened in the history of ever.

04:04And then won a title is the interesting part, because we know that Miami was an 8th seed

04:08and they made the finals, and we know that Houston was a 6th seed and they won the finals.

04:14But the Warriors are the 11th seed.

04:17Right.

04:18Like, I don't think, you know what I mean?

04:19There's nothing that's going to make the Warriors able to beat Oklahoma City here in a few months.

04:26Like that, that, that's, that is actually in this moment, that's more bananas than the

04:32idea of the Giants beating the Dodgers in a five game series.

04:35Well, you're right because, and you mentioned it, the flimsy nature, and it's even more,

04:40I think the word I would use would be whimsical.

04:44Baseball can be whimsical.

04:45Yeah.

04:46Logan Webb, friend of the program, could go out and throw a three hitter and you could

04:49win one nothing.

04:50Absolutely.

04:51In a fluky fashion.

04:52And then you can go out there and win two to one against Yamamoto.

04:58Yamamoto makes one mistake and somebody hits a two run yacker and then, you know, the Dodgers

05:04maybe commit a couple of errors and all of a sudden you steal that game.

05:07And, you know, baseball is much more stealable, flimsy, whimsical than base, than basketball.

05:13But you're talking about a playoff series.

05:15Right.

05:16I'm sitting here in January saying Shohei, Yamamoto, Betts, and Freeman could all get

05:21hurt and miss the year.

05:24I don't even know that, like the Dodgers are not a hundred percent to make the playoffs.

05:30What are their World Series odds?

05:31The Dodgers?

05:32Yeah.

05:33Minus two million.

05:34No, they're plus two ninety.

05:37Plus two ninety.

05:38Right.

05:39Which is three to one odds.

05:41And the next closest is the Yankees at eight to one.

05:44But they're still telling you that if you bet money on the Dodgers to win the World

05:48Series, they'll give you more back.

05:49Well, yeah.

05:50I mean, that's futures.

05:51But that means that they're saying it's a less than 50-50 proposition, even on the Dodgers

05:56to win the whole thing.

05:57Right.

05:5850-50 would be, you know, minus one hundred or plus one hundred.

06:02But you'll never see that in the futures market.

06:04Right.

06:05To have a team, especially in baseball, as you mentioned, for a team to be plus two ninety

06:09in baseball is really surprising.

06:11And I'll even relate it to the NBA.

06:14Right now, Boston is plus 220 and OKC is plus 250.

06:20But that's half a year in.

06:21And then Cleveland is, Cleveland's a nice price at plus 750.

06:25Ooh, that is a nice price.

06:26They're good.

06:27They are good.

06:28They're incredible.

06:29But Boston, what you've seen is going to go back to back.

06:32You're still getting plus money on it.

06:34You bet one hundred to win 220.

06:35Speaking of Boston, you were saying you would bet there's never been a team that was 11th

06:40at this stage of the season and won the championship.

06:42They didn't win the championship.

06:44Boston in 2022 went to the finals.

06:46They were 21 and 22, 11th in the East.

06:5011th.

06:51Interesting.

06:52Yeah.

06:53No, I knew they were 500 at this point.

06:54And so I still use those two examples as to and this is on a much smaller scale to

07:00those who say, can the Warriors even be good in the second half?

07:04Well, yeah, absolutely.

07:06They could be, you know, I know right now the idea of a four game win streak feels like

07:10a climbing Mount Everest.

07:13But here's your two examples, one of them being what Granny just said, that phenomenal

07:17Celtics team that led the Warriors to one in the finals was 21 and 22 once upon a time

07:23their opponent tonight, their opponent tonight, fans were literally ready to pull each other's

07:28hair out.

07:29They were so mad at what was happening with the Sacramento Kings this year.

07:33And then they hired a new coach and they went seven in a row.

07:37And now they're right in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race.

07:40So like, can the Warriors get healthy and be good a month from now?

07:45Sure, sure.

07:46The title contention to me feels like completely off the table.

07:53It feels completely off the table.

07:54It'd be a stretch.

07:55And, you know, you look at that and Granny's right about the fact that on January 14th,

08:02when they lost, they were 21 and 22.

08:04They were the 11 seed, but they were only, let's see, they were two games out of the

08:11seven seed.

08:12So it's kind of similar to what the Warriors are, right?

08:14Boston did end that year on a 30 of 38 run.

08:19So they won 30 of their last 38, which got them to where they needed to be.

08:24And they actually, they never, well, they got to the one seed for a day and then they

08:28wound up as the two.

08:30But when you go 30 and eight over the last 38, you can do some things.

08:34So the Warriors are allowed to finish the year at 30 and eight.

08:38They still won't be the one seed, even if they do.

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