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'Madman Principle': why is Trump interested in Panama, Greenland, and Canada?
Australian Community Media
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1/20/2025
US President Donald Trump might be looking to employ the 'madman theory' of global politics in his diplomatic dealings.
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00:00
Why does Donald Trump seem to be so interested in Greenland and Panama all of a sudden?
00:16
Trump insinuated he would use military force to seize control of Greenland and the Panama Canal.
00:22
Controlling Greenland would be of strategic consequence because it's a port in a strategic shipping route
00:27
and it has reserves of valuable minerals including cobalt, lithium and nickel.
00:32
But Trump claims America needs a presence in Greenland as a matter of national security
00:38
and that it would be a benefit to Greenland to have America control it
00:41
since China and Russia have navy operations stationed there.
00:45
People really don't even know if Denmark has any legal right to it.
00:50
But if they do, they should give it up because we need it for national security.
00:54
That's for the free world. I'm talking about protecting the free world.
00:57
As for the Panama Canal, Trump claims China is basically controlling it
01:01
even though Panama's president has rejected that claim.
01:04
The Panama Canal is vital to our country. It's being operated by China.
01:10
China! And we gave the Panama Canal to Panama, we didn't give it to China.
01:15
That is a manifestation of gross ignorance of history.
01:20
The Canal will celebrate 25 years under Panamanian hands, under Panamanian administration, on December 31st.
01:27
And then in a truly unexpected turn of events, Trump claimed he'd use economic coercion
01:32
to turn Canada into the 51st state of America.
01:35
And I know that as a successful negotiator he likes to keep people a little off balance.
01:41
The 51st state, that's not going to happen. It's just a non-starter.
01:45
Canadians are incredibly proud of being Canadian.
01:48
And it also seems Trump might like to rename the Gulf of Mexico.
01:52
He thinks the Gulf of America has a better ring to it.
01:55
In response, the Mexican president proposed that the whole of North America should be renamed Mexican America.
02:02
But why don't we call the United States...
02:05
America Mexicana.
02:06
Mexican America. It sounds nice, doesn't it?
02:09
¿Verdad que s�
02:10
So what's going on here?
02:12
If his previous term in the White House was anything to go by,
02:15
it's notoriously hard to predict the actions of Donald Trump.
02:19
I use the word unpredictable. You want to be unpredictable.
02:22
And I want to be unpredictable.
02:23
I want to be unpredictable. I'm not going to tell you...
02:25
Reigning theory is that Trump might be looking to employ the Madman principle of politics.
02:31
This is a tactic of global diplomacy coined by Richard Nixon,
02:35
wherein a leader acts as if he is willing to do anything,
02:38
no matter how mad or damaging it may appear on the surface.
02:42
By being so unpredictable, that leader ends up having a better chance of negotiating what he actually wants.
02:48
When utilized well, the theory posits that other world leaders recognize their behavior as volatile
02:53
and are more likely to attempt an appeasement.
02:56
And so it can be a very effective form of deterrence.
02:59
Threats of force can convince others to refrain from initiating or continuing actions
03:04
that could escalate the volatility of a world leader.
03:08
There are some political theorists, including Jonathan Stevens in the New York Times
03:12
and international relations academic Roseanne McManus of the University of Wisconsin-Madison,
03:17
say Trump's employment of the Madman principle may not be as effective as he thinks.
03:23
Mainly because he has stated, even as recently as the 2024 presidential election,
03:28
that he would use feigned madness in his policies.
03:32
He said a military confrontation over Taiwan would not be necessary,
03:36
as he, quote, respects him and knows he is crazy.
03:40
Referring to himself as acting mad may have been counterproductive,
03:44
because the Madman principle can really only work if a world leader can truly convince the world
03:49
that their madness is genuine.
03:51
Politics, after all, is a game of bluff.
03:55
Never let them know your next move.
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